The Brewers will win the division if...

[liveforoctober]

Obviously there are 30 things I could write here that could/would be true. I'm looking for maybe the top 2 or 3 that you all have in mind. Make them as vague or specific as you need to. What has to happen for the Brewers to hold off the 3 headed monster behind us? For me...

 

1) Improvement offensively from Jean Segura. Please take all the time you need Jean, your family obviously is first. But if Jean can spin things around and start producing offensively I think it will go a long way in stabilizing the ups and downs we experienced, and balance us, offensively.

 

2) One starter to go "ace mode" on us. I'm looking at you Matt Garza. We had early season runs with Lohse and Peralta ... I think if one guy can step up and dominate in August and September the other 4 will be able to hold at .500 and a .560ish winning percentage the rest of the way should do the trick.

 

3) Healthy September. This goes without saying, but our September schedule is basically the NL Central. If we can win series in September ... we will be in good/great position.

[Pugger]

...we stay out of long losing streaks!

 

It might be nice to get a right hand reliever and a 1st baseman who can actually produce offensively.

[JohnBriggs12]

Henderson provides quality late inning relief once he returns and Smith reverts to his early season form.

 

The Brewers pen is short right now. If it doesn't get turned around, it will cost them.

 

Offensively, they are fine if the 3 OF and Ramirez stay on the field. They can live with what they are getting at 1B if that happens.

[JohnBriggs12]

...we stay out of long losing streaks!

 

It might be nice to get a right hand reliever and a 1st baseman who can actually produce offensively.

 

Overbay is hitting .405 with RISP. I'd say that is producing offense. They need the OF to stay on the field so production from 1B isn't as critical.

[brewmann04]

So they can beat the rest of the NL central in Sept

[Bombers]

1250 was talking about this and to me it goes:

1. Health - we have to stay healthy. Health is always the most important piece. Teams who can minimize injuries always have a leg up.

2. Starting Pitching has to continue to be above the MLB average and ultimately get even better. We have a starters ERA of 3.86. 8 NL teams have a better starters Team ERA than us. We need an improvement there.

3. Ryan Braun - A hot bat from Ryan Braun is important to me as he lives for the spotlight. Has the capability to carry team by himself. To me, he is the hitter that is the key to our offense staying at a high level.

[logan82]

Stay Healthy.

[jerichoholicninja]

...they win more games than everyone else in the division.

[reillymcshane]

Stay Healthy.

This is it.

[trwi7]

...we stay out of long losing streaks!

 

If we win one and lose two for the rest of the season we'll have avoided long losing streaks and comfortably finish in 4th place.

[JohnBriggs12]

Health is a big part, but the bullpen is not good enough right now, even if the rest of the team stays healthy. They need at least one RH reliever, either Henderson or a guy acquired in a deal to be able to lock down the 7th or 8th inning and they need the Will Smith of April and May to reappear.

[patrickgpe]

if the team can stay healthy. will smith gets back on track, and they acquire a right handed late inning reliever, a 1st baseman to replace Overbay on the roster with and a good veteran utility player they should be fine.

[Roderick]

Braun and ARam remain "healthy".

 

Someone (Will Smith or Jim Henderson) locks down the 8th inning.

[FVBrewerFan]

1) Stay healthy

2) Time to role with guys that produce. No more using Kintzler in the 8th (or at all) because he did it last year (as an example) Zach Duke is a guy not even mentioned as a possible 8th inning guy, yet his numbers are almost identical LHB vs RHB. He has quietly had every bit as good a first half as Smith.

3) I agree, someone has to establish themselves as an ace down the stretch. Better yet, two guys.

4) Wild card factor. Someone has to have a huge bat down the stretch. Braun is the most likely candidate, but it could be Segura or Davis too. If the rest of the line-up is more or less the same, one guy on fire would make a big difference.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 - the bullpen gets healthy (Henderson and Thornburg) and Doug is able to add another reliever via callup (Jeffress) or deadline trade to improve on what they already have

2 - Braun, ARam, Cargo, and LuCroy stay off the disabled list

3 - they get better offensive production out of 1B than what they got in the 1st half - doesn't necessarily mean they have to bring in new players, but the combo of Overbay and Reynolds have to be better than what their 1st half #'s were. 'O' has shown some signs of life recently, so hopefully that continues.

4 - The Cardinals don't make a big splash at the trade deadline - they have a ton of injuries, many significant, but they still have a talented roster and enough minor league pieces to grab a frontline starter or big bat at the deadline to put them over the top.

[NeedMoreFans]

The Cardinals don't add that one piece to the puzzle that makes them difficult to beat (like the Furcal trade in 2011).

[craigharmann]

The Cardinals don't add that one piece to the puzzle that makes them difficult to beat (like the Furcal trade in 2011).

 

They'll need to add about 8 pieces.

[liveforoctober]

The Cardinals don't add that one piece to the puzzle that makes them difficult to beat (like the Furcal trade in 2011).

 

They'll need to add about 8 pieces.

 

To the offense...

[SRB]

I think realistic/likely goals are:

 

(1) Braun/A-Ram make up the difference for the inevitable drops in performance from Gomez/Lucroy.

 

(2) The pitching staff has an unspectacular but solid second half. They were pitching above their heads to start the season, but if all five pitch like #3's (totally doable), then that should be enough to hold on.

 

(3) Roenicke shows a willingness to ride the hot hand if K-Rod or another back-end reliever starts to collapse/implode down the stretch.

[logan82]

(2) The pitching staff has an unspectacular but solid second half. They were pitching above their heads to start the season, but if all five pitch like #3's (totally doable), then that should be enough to hold on.

It is sort of scary how they have pitched since the first month. If they can pitch like they have all year overall things should be ok. If they pitch like they have outside of April, things could get ugly. The offense will help but still a little scary.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would like to preface my remarks with saying what a privilege it's been to be alive and a baseball fan during the career of the great Derek Jeter

 

Now as to what the Brewers need to win the division, assuming the bullpen issues are addressed, Roenicke needs a quicker hook.

[Bombers]

I would like to preface my remarks with saying what a privilege it's been to be alive and a baseball fan during the career of the great Derek Jeter

 

Or as CBS said:

@CBSNews: Michael Jeter takes bow at his final All-Star game

They then said:

@CBSNews: Whoops, we meant to say DEREK Jeter takes bow at his final All-Star game http://t.co/csJROOgNWU

[SoupTown]

I am going to pin it on Peralta and Nelson. The other starters we kind of KNOW. The offense is swings and roundabouts - they balance out. The pen, also, I think is swings and roundabouts - they balance out.

 

Peralta and Nelson can be -2 games each or +2 games each... Peralta compared to his old, not yet consistent self and Nelson compared to Estrada. The Brewers will win the division by 2 or lose it by 2. I am positive. Peralta in the game before the break... wow. Nelson will relax after a couple starts and be the spark we need. And when you think of Estrada essentially replacing Wang, that is another positive.

 

re the injured bullpen guys... they are included in the ups and downs. A couple will come back. A couple current guys may go down. But it all balances - with the focal point (in my mind) Peralta and Nelson.

[monty57]

Health is the biggest issue. I don't think we win the division in any of the following scenarios:

 

-Reynolds at 3B, Overbay at 1B every day (Ramirez injured)

-Schafer/Herrera at CF or RF every day (Gomez or Braun injured)

-Estrada and Fiers in the rotation (two injured starters)

-Maldonado/Zarraga catching (Lucroy injured)

[reillymcshane]

Health is the biggest issue because this team lacks depth at just about every position. Unless someone comes out of nowhere and surprises, the drop off we have is pretty stark at most positions.

 

The one trump card we had was Nelson, and that's been played (and that's no sure thing. At AA and AAA, Nelson has taken a half season or so to adjust to the better competition. So 2014 in Milwaukee may be include a lot of growing pains).

 

Our depth is Bianchi, Gindl, Hermida, Schafer and Herrera. If there are significant injuries, the offense will struggle.

 

I'm better off with the rotation, as you can plug in Fiers or Estrada. Not great, but serviceable in the 5th spot.

 

The bullpen can swap out the back end guys, but a major injury to the top guys will be hard to fill. We are already struggling since the injury to Thornburg. No one has stepped up to take his spot.