Cole Hamels

[Warning Track Power]

If I am the Brewers FO, I would be targeting Cole Hamels as the possible fill in for the Estrada role in the rotation. Ideally, the Brewers would simply bring Jimmy Nelson up and have him take Estrada's place but the reality is the Brewers are woefully short in the ace department which makes us especially vulnerable come playoff time. If the Brewers are fortunate enough to make the playoffs, our Game 1 starter is...? And that Game 1 starter is going to be pitching against Kershaw, Strasburg, Wainwright, Bumgarner, Cueto, etc...I don't like the idea of being down 0-1 in most playoff series given the talent of pitcher we will likely be facing. Hamels would provide the Brewers with a pitcher capable of matching up with all of the aforementioned pitchers save Kershaw, who is in a world of his own.

 

What would it take to get Hamels? Same as David Price? More/less?

 

While I am not necessarily advocating for trading a ton of talent for an expensive, aging ace, I am also not blind to the fact that the Brewers depth of a rotation is fine for the regular season but might come up short in the postseason reminiscent of the A's of previous seasons. Hamels is a more ideal target than David Price in my opinion given he is signed long term and could be a long term solution in the rotation.

[sheetskout]

Cole Hamels is due 22.5 million dollars every year thru 2018. There's no way this market takes that contract on.

[HiAndTight]

Cole Hamels is due 22.5 million dollars every year thru 2018. There's no way this market takes that contract on.

 

 

People seem to think this is the same Brewers team that had a 27 million dollar payroll as opposed to a 105 million dollar payroll with room to add.

 

They could trade Gallardo and with Weeks gone, Lohse the following year, they could absolutely do it.

I was against adding David Price in another theoretical discussion at 7 years and at 25 million dollars per year, but Hamels would be signed for 3 years after this one, not 7 more.

However I still question how good this team really is and if it's worth it to give up Nelson for starters and then multiple other prospects.

[ewitkows]

Philly seems reluctant to blow it up, so I don't think they move anyone major. If we take over the contract the price better be less than David Price. Maybe Williams and Haniger. I would think they'd have to kick in a chuck to get Nelson

[reillymcshane]

Hamels is a really good pitcher - and only 30 years old. He should have a few prime years left. Even with the hefty salary, he's going to cost some prime talent. Maybe not as much as Price, but still a lot.

[trwi7]

Not that I think we will or should make a move for Hamels but he can block a trade here.

 

The remaining nine teams (other than the Phillies) to which Hamels may be traded without his consent are the Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, and Padres.

 

It is difficult to say what this means for the possible Hamels market, should Philly make him available. In some respects, the mere fact that the club would need to consult with the pitcher to send him to any one of twenty clubs could pose a deterrent. On the other hand, his list could conceivably indicate a willingness to go to a contender, as it seems to be composed of teams that were expected to be in the mix (in addition to those that, as Morosi notes, are located near his native southern California).

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/cole-hamels-can-block-trades-to-twenty-clubs.html

[HiAndTight]

Hamels is a really good pitcher - and only 30 years old. He should have a few prime years left. Even with the hefty salary, he's going to cost some prime talent. Maybe not as much as Price, but still a lot.

 

 

I'd be willing to give up more for Hamels than Price. Price will be a FA after next year. IF we were going to make this type of huge move(and again, I agree we should not) I'd prefer, as always, we give ourselves a 3-4 year window. I think most teams would. So you get a similar pitcher for less than half the FA salary that Price will demand(in terms of years and total money).

 

If Hamels was on the market right now and it took 4 years and 90 million to sign him, I think most teams would be willing to give him that. Price on the other hand, nobody knows what it's going to take. 8 years 200? The top salaries have exploded for pitchers in the last couple years, so the Phillies would and should want a kings ransom for him.

[nate82]

The Brewers do not need another starting pitcher. The Brewers need a 1B and a 4th OF and possibly another bench bat but if the Brewers can get a decent 1B Reynolds is not that bad of a bench bat.

 

The Brewers also need bullpen help more than they need another starter. Plus if the Brewers were to trade for Hamels at a minimum it is going to cost Nelson and one of Coulter, Arcia, or Taylor plus some lower grade prospects.

[sheetskout]

Cole Hamels is due 22.5 million dollars every year thru 2018. There's no way this market takes that contract on.

They could trade Gallardo and with Weeks gone, Lohse the following year, they could absolutely do it.

 

 

No they couldn't. Unless the payroll was raised to about 120million annually. By then Kintzler, Peralta, Gennett, Davis, and a host of others will get aribitration raises virtually nullifying any savigs we had with Rickie Weeks. Brauns contract starts to climb as well and regarding next season it looks as though we have no choice to pick up the options on Gallardo and Ramirez.

 

I guess Mark A. could splurge even further, but I find that highly improbable and it definately would be unprecedented in Milwaukee.

[monty57]

regarding next season it looks as though we have no choice to pick up the options on Gallardo and Ramirez

 

A lot will happen between now and then. We will first have to see the performance and health of the aforementioned players. We next have to see the performance of potential replacements, particularly at SP, as we don't appear to have any 3B on the radar in the minors. We also have to see how the Brewers do in the second half - if we make the playoffs it's more likely we re-sign players, while if we take a dive we may clean house. We finally have to see what the market looks like for potential replacements.

 

As much as I wish we had a replacement, if Ramirez stays healthy and hits even near an .800 OPS, we may be forced to exercise the option. However, if Nelson proves himself ready, and Thornburg or Smith look good enough, we could go with a 2015 rotation of Lohse, Peralta, Garza, Nelson, Thornburg/Smith. Gallardo has a 3.68 ERA, but a 4.13 FIP, and Baseball Prospectus has him at a -2.1 VORP and -0.2 WARP.

 

With both Gallardo and Ramirez, I think we may regret picking up their options. Gallardo seems old-beyond-his-years (he should be at the start of his prime and getting better, not declining), and Ramirez is just old. He appears at his best after a some time off (start of season, period immediately after his DL stint), and would probably be best suited to getting a day or two off every week. That probably won't get better with age.

 

But to keep this on topic, how does this relate to Hamels? If we were to trade for Hamels, we almost certainly would be "going for it" next year, which would be hard to do without a 3B. That would mean we would exercise Ramirez's option. We also wouldn't have the nice league-minimum salary of Nelson, who would definitely be part of the trade for Hamels. Gallardo would probably be retained for that spot. Therefore, we would have an awfully expensive team next year, which I don't feel is probably doable. It would basically be this year's team record payroll without Estrada's and Weeks' contracts, but with Hamels' added on and raises to everyone else. Maybe possible, but probably not likely.

[HiAndTight]

Cole Hamels is due 22.5 million dollars every year thru 2018. There's no way this market takes that contract on.

They could trade Gallardo and with Weeks gone, Lohse the following year, they could absolutely do it.

 

 

No they couldn't. Unless the payroll was raised to about 120million annually. By then Kintzler, Peralta, Gennett, Davis, and a host of others will get aribitration raises virtually nullifying any savigs we had with Rickie Weeks. Brauns contract starts to climb as well and regarding next season it looks as though we have no choice to pick up the options on Gallardo and Ramirez.

 

I guess Mark A. could splurge even further, but I find that highly improbable and it definately would be unprecedented in Milwaukee.

 

Hasn't that been the case over the past 5-10 years since we've gone from a payroll of 27 million to one that could easily reach 110 this year?

 

Ramirez 16 million

Weeks 11 million

Gallardo 13 million

Lohse 11 million

 

And that money is going to be made up by Braun's salary going up, Brandon Kintzler and several other people who will be in their 1st or 2nd year of arbitration? How much do you think Kintzler is going to get in arbitration? Braun is going to make 12 million as opposed to 10 next year. Kintlzer doesn't look like he's going to be getting a hefty raise. Peralta, Davis, Gennett, none of them are hitting arbitration next year. So no, Weeks contract is not going to be nullified by those raises next year.

Then the following year we'd have several other contracts coming off the books.

 

And if we did trade for Hamels(again, I don't believe we should because of the prospects we'd have to give up, but if) we why would we be forced to do anything with Gallardo?

 

 

Put it this way. Keep the exact same team, just exchange Hamels and Nelson(and if you'd like, Fiers) for the salaries of Gallardo, Lohse and Estrada. That's certainly one way we could make it work. Hamels and Nelson(and Fiers) would be CHEAPER than this years trio of Gallardo(11.25), Lohse(11) and Estrada(3.25). So I fail to see how there is "no way," we COULD make it work moving forward when those players contracts will be off the books along with several others simply because of some arbitration raises coming down the road.

 

And by the way, until MLB's TV bubble bursts(And it will IMO, just not in the very near future) 120 million in 2016-17-18 is hardly going to be an outrageous figure for the Brewers. But again, they wouldn't even need to push it that far for the sake of this discussion.

 

 

You could argue we need money to sign FA's at 3rd or 1st, or we need to keep payroll flexibility. Not that we couldn't absorb Hamels contract for 4 years without significantly raising our payroll as our roster is currently constituted. None of this is to say that I think we should trade for Hamels. I don't want to give up the players it take to get him. But I think if he were a FA and the Brewers could sign him for 4 years 90 million, they'd jump on that.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The Brewers are going to need a SP when Lohse leaves guys. The Brewers would be thinking this year and beyond, and that's Melvins MO as a GM. I'd do it. However, I'd extend Gallardo, and let everybody on H&T list go. We will also need a damn good 3B man. Hopefully that SS the Brewers drafted breaks out and we make him a 3B and he advances quickly.

 

H&T Kintzler doesn't have a future in Milwaukee. He's good trade bait. Jeffress and Henderson are the keepers.

[Mr Southpaw]

Total of approximately 101 million. Room to add a reliever or 1B.

 

Starting Pitching

 

22.5 Hamel

11.0 Lohse

12.5 Garza

0.8 Peralta

1.5 W Smith

 

Relief Pitchers

 

0.8 Henderson

0.8 Thornberg

1.0 Duke

1.0 Jeffress

1.0 Kintzler

0.5 Wooten

1.0 Another Leftie

 

Starters

 

3.1 C Lucroy

2.1 1B Reynolds

0.5 2B Gennett

14.0 3B Ramirez

2.0 SS Segura new contract 5/20 mill

0.5 LF Davis

8.0 CF Gomez

13.0 RF Braun

 

Bench

 

0.5 C Zarraga

1.2 C Maldonado

0.5 1B Morris

0.5 SS Bianchi

0.5 OF Schafer

[monty57]

Thanks for adding that up Mr. S. There would be payouts to Gallardo and Weeks as well, but a good summation.

 

My question is whether we'd be better with Hamels and Smith/Thornburg or with Nelson and Gallardo with around $10MM to add other pieces while still keeping the other young players (Coulter, Arcia?) it would take if we had any chance of landing Hamels.

[Mr Southpaw]

In the playoffs, I think we would be better with Hamel. During the year, it seems like a wash. My concern would be if Nelson turns out to be anything like Wainright/Hamel/etc