Bad news for the Cardinals: Wacha & Garcia to the DL

[brewcrewdue80]

So, I am reading that. 2013 19th selected Marco Gonzales is now being brought up to start for StL. This is the same guy the Brewers were for the most part linked as selecting in 2013 if, if they didn't sign Lohse thus giving up their draft pick. How fun. Cardinals can really stick it to Milwaukee when they give up Kaminsky for Price with Adams. (though just maybe Gonzales is the callup for Tampa to see vs. ML pitching. and the soon to happen Price deal.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Coming into the year, I viewed the Crew as a .500 team with upside. No doubt we've seen some of that upside. The starters have been solid, the pen got on an early season roll and has been steady since and the bats have woken up recently. No reason they can't play at least at a .500 pace the rest of the year, which already gets them to 89 wins and probably a playoff spot. They don't have to give some of their previous good fortune back. I do worry about the depth, but the closer we get to the trading deadline it's less of an issue as they should be able to add a piece or two. As long as they don't lose a key piece like Gomez or Lucroy, they are probably ok.

 

I also think they are playing over their ski tips. This team has been fortunate. Look at the Rockies series...that was some luck in sweeping them. They've also had some close wins versus the Pirates, 5-0 in one run games and 7-0 in 2 runs or less...If they are 7-6 instead of 10-3 versus the Pirates, this division looks much different.

[Thurston Fluff]

They were up 9 games on the Cubs this time of year in 2007 and ended up winning 83 games and losing the division by 2 games.

 

How many on this team was even on the roster back then? I was referring to the recent Brewers teams.

 

And while we've done some of those things before(once recently) the Card are more talented, and routinely have done it.

 

What makes you think the Cards are more talented this year?

[PrinceFielderx1]

and you guys said I was premature to call the NL Central race over a month ago..... Funny. Dead simmons I consider you good luck. Stick around.

 

You were and you are. Please stop. Anyone but the Cubs could still win this division. A 4.5 game lead is nothing. 7 game leads have been blown with less than 3 weeks left.

 

If you were to tell me today that we do not go on to win the division but do end up winning a wild card, I would be satisfied.

 

 

I thought this was a team that could win 70 games or upper 80's coming into the season. More players have exceeded expectations than not.

 

And this isn't a shot, but PrinceFielderx1 is an optimist, convinced we could get Stanton AND the "unproven," Fernandez(yes, Jose) for Ryan Braun.

 

I am a optimist usually. But not to the point that when it's pouring outside I believe that I can walk to my care and have the drops miss me. But....I'll say this. While I might raise an eyebrow at some of these posts, there better than the, "when will the wheels come off," type of fans.

 

I try to be as opposite of those fans as I can be.

[PrinceFielderx1]

brwrsfan,

 

Was referring to September.

 

My apologies, I misinterpreted your post.

 

It happens. no worries.

[HiAndTight]

They were up 9 games on the Cubs this time of year in 2007 and ended up winning 83 games and losing the division by 2 games.

 

How many on this team was even on the roster back then? I was referring to the recent Brewers teams.

 

And while we've done some of those things before(once recently) the Card are more talented, and routinely have done it.

 

What makes you think the Cards are more talented this year?

 

 

Just an opinion. I think the Cardinals are a more talented team than the Brewers. Especially when healthy. I think they're substantially better suited for a playoff series as well.

 

Wainwright is a legit ace, Wacha may be one, Garcia has been REALLY good, Kelly is a awesome back of the rotation type, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, and down the line. They also have several guys who can help them out in the minors. Now if they have a few serious injuries and we don't, the gap closes.

 

As for recent Brewers teams, I don't know, that seems pretty recent to me. That was also just one year. But if you're talking about recent teams and their history, then why would you ask why I think the Cards are more talented? WS team vs a team that went on a nice run at the end of the year so they finished with more than 70 wins.

 

 

 

I really like this Brewers team. I think they're loose, they've got some good veterans....but they need to get really lucky with guys like Aram, Lohse, Garza, K-Rod and keep getting good production out of them(I might add Yo as well) and they need their young guys who are really playing well to keep it up(Peralta, Gennett, Davis). Well, again, everything has to go right. They don't have much margin for error.

 

On the other side, Segura will hopefully play better, Nelson could make a big difference, Henderson AND Thornburg and possibly Jeffress could give us a dominant bullpen.

[HiAndTight]

I try to be as opposite of those fans as I can be. [smile]

 

 

Well...they're definitely more pleasant to be around. And...you have certainly succeeded.

[Thurston Fluff]

As for recent Brewers teams, I don't know, that seems pretty recent to me. That was also just one year. But if you're talking about recent teams and their history, then why would you ask why I think the Cards are more talented? WS team vs a team that went on a nice run at the end of the year so they finished with more than 70 wins.

 

I can see what you mean by recent but when I look at where that team was at compared to now it seems like an eternity.

 

Just an opinion. I think the Cardinals are a more talented team than the Brewers. Especially when healthy. I think they're substantially better suited for a playoff series as well.

 

I think the Cards played a little above their heads last season. Especially on offense where their batting with runners in scoring position was out of whack with their overall batting average. Take that away last season and they look a lot like they do this season. No power and little speed to help manufacture runs. Something I think is a bad combination. I tend to think their huge bump in batting with runners in scoring position had a lot to do with luck. So maybe I just look at what their offense is doing now as more of what they really are.

Overall they are a good solid team with great starting pitching, a good bullpen but an offense that has little speed and not a lot of power who suddenly stopped hitting above their norms with runners in scoring position.

Then I look at what our team is doing and I see as many playing slightly below expectations as above them. Which makes me think maybe we sometimes sell our team short. While some of what is going in is luck a lot more is just a very good team. It would take a hell of a lot of bad luck for us to really tank IMHO.

Now that I say that watch them lose 10 in a row.

[logan82]

No they don't. Yes they got a little lucky on offense last year but they also scored a lot more runs than the next best team. Even if they were not lucky with RISP last year they would have likely still led the league in runs scored.

[SoupTown]

Baseball has indeed 'under cared about' managing LONG TERM.

 

 

You might want to look at the complete game stats that use to be posted by starting pitchers prior to the late 80's/early 90's. Also look at how many times closers pitched 2 or 3 innings during that same time period. If anything, pitchers are more "babied" now than at any time in MLB history.

 

 

I think what you will find historically is no body was babied. So you ended up with two classes of pitchers: those that retired hurt early, then the ones who were mechanical freaks and just would not break down.

 

Now, scientifically it 'seems' that group that 'used to retire hurt early' can be managed to longevity. Yet, there is this great pull between win now and win next year or two. That is the 'under manage' I mean. Win now always takes precedence over preserve your resource a little for longevity. It just seems to be the gradual change in thinking amongst those running the game. I would guess a Clemens or Nolan Ryan would not give great weight to managing a guys innings each year. But as more and more younger (educated?) management fills the ranks, you suddenly have a concern about managing your resources long term.

[Thurston Fluff]

Yes they got a little lucky on offense last year but they also scored a lot more runs than the next best team. Even if they were not lucky with RISP last year they would have likely still led the league in runs scored.

 

I think more than a little lucky. They batted 330/402/463 with runners in scoring position last season. Now compare that to their overall numbers of 269/332/401 and you get 61/44/62 points above their overall numbers. For comparisons sake the next closest team to that was the Tigers who batted 282/362/444 with runners in scoring position compared to their overall 283/346/434. Looking at that, all things being equal, I'd say the Tigers would be far more likely to get similar results to what they did last season than the Cards are. And they are 276/328/441 overall vs 272/331/420 w/risp.

 

This season the Cards are a lot closer to their overall numbers with runners in scoring position 251/319/366 overall vs 248/332/347 w/risp.

 

Now lets look at Milwaukee last year. 252/311/398 overall vs 255/313/406 w/risp. One would think that differential is more sustainable year to year. And it is. 257/316/413 overall compared to 269/343/422 w/risp. While there is a difference it is nowhere near what the Cards enjoyed last season.

 

I just feel this is more indicative of what their offense is than what they were last season.

[TheCrew07]

I'll just say that I don't believe all that much in luck. An older baseball guy I know has always believed and preaches that hitting is contagious both ways and I've been a believer, maybe just because I grew up hearing it when my dad would talk baseball with him. Look at the Rays, even their best player is horrible this year, it's not that they suddenly don't have any talent, none of them are hitting as a group. Is that really bad luck? Of course not, there's something much deeper than that going on.

 

Of course the Cards were going to come back down to earth but nobody is "lucky" or "unlucky" for an entire year. I would term lucky events as things such as Colorado basically handing Milwaukee back to back victories to end the series. When hitters are smoking the ball all over the place, it's not luck, it's something else, those victories are actually being earned. The Brewers have been magnificent in close games but I wouldn't say they have been "lucky", they've been incredibly consistent and have earned those victories, the other teams didn't regularly give them away.

 

In my opinion "luck" is just lazy statistical analysis that goes back to the first advanced baseball metrics, anything that isn't easily explainable gets dismissed as luck or noise. Too many games are won and lost in the grey area for it to be so easily ignored.

 

I think it's easy for Brewer fans to want the Brewers to be better than the actually are and the Cards to be worse than they actually are, but I think the Brewers have played about as good as they can all season and the Cards still have more in their tank. The Brewers may take the division but we're way too far out to make any definitive claims yet, I've been very pleasantly surprised by how this season has gone.

 

The question to be asking is if the Brewers can maintain what they've done being ranked in the middle pitching wise? They are currently 10th in runs allowed. However they are 2nd best offense in the NL and would be potentially be the best offense in playoffs on paper, but I have hard time believing the Cardinals actually have the 12th worst offense, especially if they start swapping out some of those vets for the youngsters. The Cards might struggle for a bit while those players get their feet on the ground but once they do... look out.

 

I just don't think Kolten Wong is going to hit .228 as a professional anymore than I believe Scooter Gennett is actually going to bat .315 and SLG .470 for his career. Gennett may ultimately prove to be the better player but I think he's played over his head much like McGehee did early on.

[Thurston Fluff]

In 2012 the hit 271/338/421 and 264/353/422 w/risp. 2011 they hit 274/341/425 overall and 290/378/454 w/risp. 2010 263/332/402 overall and 290/363/426 w/risp. I can go on but I think you get the point. I don't know what you call a statistical anomaly that does not repeat itself other than luck.

But,for the sake of argument, lets assume it was something other than luck. Why should we assume last season is the true Cards offense and all the rest of the seasons are the outliers? Whatever they had going for them last season w/risp it didn't happen before nor does it seem like it is this season. Shouldn't that tell us more about who they really are more than the one outlier season? Whether you consider what they did last season luck or some ability they cannot repeat it boils down to the same thing. This is more likely who they are w/risp compared to their overall hitting than what they did last season.

[logan82]

If they had hit the same all the time instead of really well with RISP they would have still been amongst the leaders in runs scored in the NL last year.

[gregmag]

Crew, I wish you wouldn't dismiss people who disagree with you as engaging in lazy analysis or homerism, but you do it constantly, so I guess I should stop wishing. The argument in your post, as far as I can tell, has no actual content, aside from tossing off a few anecdotes and disparaging people who appear to have have thought about this issue much harder than you have. As for whether the Cardinals' offense has untapped potential, I'm really starting to wonder. Holliday and Molina are at points where we could expect them to decline. Carpenter, Adams, and Peralta seem to be hitting up to their abilities. Wong should get better. I'm not sure what to think about Craig and Jay. I think they may need a real contribution from Taveras if their offense is going to get them anywhere. Their pitching still scares me more, even with the injuries.

[Dead Simmons]

The new rookie starter that replaced Wacha went against the Rockies this afternoon. I never heard of the kid, one Marco Gonzales. He mowed them down on ground balls and K's through 3, but then they pounded him.

 

They said he DH'ed on days he didn't pitch in the minors, and sure enough he doubled in his 1st ML AB. He looks to be a fairly serviceable #5 starter, but really it's too soon to tell.

[jerichoholicninja]

They said he DH'ed on days he didn't pitch in the minors, and sure enough he doubled in his 1st ML AB.

 

According to his BRef page he didn't.

[Dead Simmons]

They said he DH'ed on days he didn't pitch in the minors, and sure enough he doubled in his 1st ML AB.

 

According to his BRef page he didn't.

You'll have to take it up with my source, Tim Mc Carver.

 

What I'm going to tell you now is a pip.....Trevor Miller is hurt. Back spasms. Lance Lynn is the last man standing.

 

Astounding Card stat: Before today's win they were 0-26 in games they were behind in after the 6th inning. (cosmic payback for the RISP thing, no doubt)

 

They scored 20 runs in the 3 game Rockies series, leaving the fans to wonder: is it real, or is it Coors field?

[jerichoholicninja]

You'll have to take it up with my source, Tim Mc Carver.

 

There's your problem. Didn't he do the world a favor and retire last year?

[Thurston Fluff]

If they had hit the same all the time instead of really well with RISP they would have still been amongst the leaders in runs scored in the NL last year.

 

How do you know that? Is there something I missed that shows that?

[Dead Simmons]

You'll have to take it up with my source, Tim Mc Carver.

 

There's your problem. Didn't he do the world a favor and retire last year?

He was forced by Fox to "retire". Why else would he be doing the same job for the Cards at FAR less pay?

[torts]

They scored 20 runs in the 3 game Rockies series, leaving the fans to wonder: is it real, or is it Coors field?

 

itsd Coors field

[logan82]

If they had hit the same all the time instead of really well with RISP they would have still been amongst the leaders in runs scored in the NL last year.

 

How do you know that? Is there something I missed that shows that?

They were the second best hitting club in the NL so assuming a normalish hitting distribution they should have been close to the top in run scoring as well.

[Thurston Fluff]

If they had hit the same all the time instead of really well with RISP they would have still been amongst the leaders in runs scored in the NL last year.

 

How do you know that? Is there something I missed that shows that?

They were the second best hitting club in the NL so assuming a normalish hitting distribution they should have been close to the top in run scoring as well.

 

Fair assumption. I do think they played above their heads last season but perhaps it wasn't as far as I made it seem. While they might not be as bad as they seem this season I think their true ability lies somewhere in the middle. No home run power, no speed but they can get on base and hit doubles at a decent rate. What they do have is great pitching. That is what makes me the most nervous. Their offense just doesn't scare me but their pitching does.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

This is a weekend the Brewers could really put some distance between themselves and the Cards. Dodgers have their aces lined up and the Cards just lost with theirs. Brewers have theirs lined up vs. struggling Rocks.