What is going on with Jean Segura?

[3and2Fastball]

How much of a signing bonus did Segura get when he signed with the Angels in 2007?

[Bombers]

Yuni B 2013 .212 / .240 / .355 / .595

 

Jean Segura 2014 .232 / .266 / .313 / .580

 

Clearly, the value is in the fielding for Jean but wow, what a horrendous first half for Jean.

[pacopete4]

Hopefully Arcia gets good, fast. Segura just isn't as good as we thought he maybe.

[chadomac]

The fact that Khris Davis looked horrible earlier this year and has turned it around gives me some hope... but it's hard to watch right now. He just isn't changing his approach and just keeps doing the same thing over and over again.

[HiAndTight]

I was never sold that Segura was the hitting talent he flashed in the first half of 2013, but I also don't believe he's as talent-less at the plate as the rest of his MLB career so far has indicated.

 

I think he'll be roughly a .700-.750 OPS bat going forward, with a career year or two where he's north of .800. Combine that with the very strong defense he'll continue to provide through the years in which he's controlled by the Brewers, and that will be a plenty valuable player.

 

I'm expecting that Jean will get hotter & have at least a decent overall 2nd half of the season. I just don't believe he's this awful undisciplined hitter. I think he's in a funk &/or sophomore slump, & will eventually come out of it. This guy was a legit SS bat at every level in his trip up through the minors, & imo his talent will come to the fore.

 

As others have noted, the Brewers might well have a very nice problem on their hands in another year or two if Arcia can continue to develop & wind up breathing down Segura's neck at the big-league level.

 

 

Well I was never sold on Segura as the 950 OPS guy he was the first two months of last year, but I am sold completely on him being a .300/.340/.420 with solidly above average defense. He's still a young player. Maybe...he should play in the off-season. I thought he fell off so much because he hadn't had a break in a long time. But maybe playing in the winter helps him. Either way, I'm still convinced that he's a 3-4 WAR SS. I realize I may be in the minority here as he's currently been worth -.2 WAR, but I've seen a short swing, I've seen some patience, I've seen the power from him enough that I believe from 25-30 he's going to be a 15+ WAR player. And it'd take at least another half of a season of poor player for me to downgrade him in my mind.

 

And it certainly looks like Arcia is legit. His age and his performance has been outstanding. I think he could be a guy who can play with Segura. Platooning at 2nd with Gennett, 3rd base, some SS and then taking over for Segura when Segura becomes a FA or close to one and we trade him.

[HiAndTight]

How much of a signing bonus did Segura get when he signed with the Angels in 2007?

 

 

I thought in that special FSN ran about baseball in the Dominican, Segura got a 70K signing bonus and gave it to his father...who got choked up at the time.

[danzig6767]

The fact that Khris Davis looked horrible earlier this year and has turned it around gives me some hope... but it's hard to watch right now. He just isn't changing his approach and just keeps doing the same thing over and over again.

 

Yesterday was a prime example of that as he rolled over four straight weak grounders to the left side of the infield.

[chadomac]

I thought in that special FSN ran about baseball in the Dominican, Segura got a 70K signing bonus and gave it to his father...who got choked up at the time.

 

Jean maybe should've held on to that money.

[HiAndTight]

I think agents and the players' association care NOTHING about guys like Segura. Jean could have locked himself into LIFETIME financial security. No one knows what the end outcome would have been, but it would have been multi multi million. Now Jean is a torn hammy or bout of back spasms or another 200 ground balls away from losing his job and having to make do with the pension.

 

Maybe the heat from a 19 years old whiz in high A ball (who did not even play as an 18 year old because of a broken ankle) is getting to Jean. Who knows. But for whatever reason (likely bad agent advice) he left his life on the table and walked away. Will it still be on the table again one day. Who knows. I hope so for him and the Brewers sakes.

 

 

Your first two sentences completely contradict each other. I don't know where the conclusion comes from that the agents and MLBPA don't care "nothing," about guys like Segura comes from, and I think it's absurd. Obviously his agent cares. But as you said, JEAN could have locked himself into lifetime financial security. HE had that option, he chose not to.

 

But he's 24 years old, and you think this might be just a tad dramatic that he's a hamstring injury, a back spasm, or 200 ground balls away from being out of baseball?

 

It's also insanely early to say it was either good OR bad advice.

 

Jean maybe should've held on to that money.

 

Well, he'll have made over 1 million by the end of the year, and I would assume he'll easily make a few million more over the next 2-3 years even if his performance doesn't rebound...though I find it unlikely he won't. So I doubt he really regretting giving his poverty stricken parents 70K right now.

 

 

This guy could sigh a deal tomorrow that would guarantee him at least 10 million dollars. Obviously his value has dropped a bit since this past off-season, but Melvin's not as reactionary as some. Segura's just fine. He's not the victim of any villainous agents or the MLBPA who's only concerned with the top 20 paid players in the game. He's still got all the tools and a very nice swing. He's pressing. That's it. And no, it's not because of a guy he probably has no clue about right now in A ball(no clue as in no clue how he's performing).

 

Lets just put things in perspective. Alcides Escobar signed a 4 year 10.5 million dollar deal to buy out 2 arbitration years with two team options after hitting .252/.294/.339 with 9 HR's through his first 1300 PA's and 2 years of service time for just one comparable player.

[SoupTown]

You say my two statements contradict themselves, but you (and I am sure everybody else) understood just fine - because you went on to debate it.

 

re your comment: "It's also insanely early to say it was either good OR bad advice." That is YOUR opinion. And I think your opinion is likely in the minority. (but that is just my opinion)

 

re your comment: "This guy could sigh a deal tomorrow that would guarantee him at least 10 million dollars." Again your opinion and likely not true. But maybe.

 

re your comment: "his value has dropped a bit"

 

re your comment: "He's still got all the tools and a very nice swing."

 

Onto Escobar, that is a good comparison. But if it was 2 arby and 2 FA, it means he already had 4 years. Are you saying the Brewers consider that 1.5 years of Segura equates to the Escobar. And you are staying the Brewers would pay Segura the same price for pre arby years as they paid Escobar for his FA years.

 

You argument may be called the Swiss cheese argument. As I see lot of holes in it.

 

In final, if I was Segura and the Crew offered me $10 mill now for the next 4 years.... I am taking it.

[HiAndTight]

You say my two statements contradict themselves, but you (and I am sure everybody else) understood just fine - because you went on to debate it.

 

I just don't agree. Segura turned the deal down. His agent may have said you can wait and you might earn more money, but his agent works for him. Other players have taken deals and other players have turned down deals.

re your comment: "It's also insanely early to say it was either good OR bad advice." That is YOUR opinion. And I think your opinion is likely in the minority. (but that is just my opinion)

 

He's 24 years old. I think it's safe to say that it's definitively too early to draw a conclusion on the decision he made.

re your comment: "This guy could sigh a deal tomorrow that would guarantee him at least 10 million dollars." Again your opinion and likely not true. But maybe.

 

Yes, and I don't like to state things that are not fact as though they are. I should have said I think there is an VERY-VERY good chance he could sign(at least) a deal that would guarantee him 10 million dollars right now.

re your comment: "his value has dropped a bit"

 

re your comment: "He's still got all the tools and a very nice swing."

 

Yes, I believe his value has dropped and I believe that he has a good swing. I think his approach is bad and he's pressing.

 

Onto Escobar, that is a good comparison. But if it was 2 arby and 2 FA, it means he already had 4 years. Are you saying the Brewers consider that 1.5 years of Segura equates to the Escobar. And you are staying the Brewers would pay Segura the same price for pre arby years as they paid Escobar for his FA years.

 

No, it was a 4 year guaranteed deal with 2 option years. So no, I'm not saying anything close to that. I'm saying that Escobar who had not hit at all signed a deal worth a guaranteed 10 million dollars close to the same point Segura is at now WITH two option years.

You argument may be called the Swiss cheese argument. As I see lot of holes in it.

 

Perhaps that's because you misunderstood Escobar's contract. He signed a 4 year deal with team options in his FA years. It's actually a deal that he was criticized for taking for being below market value, but since people seem to believe that Segura is one hammstring injury from being completely out of the game, I was trying to add some context.

In final, if I was Segura and the Crew offered me $10 mill now for the next 4 years.... I am taking it.

 

I would assume most people who don't play baseball would say the same thing. I wouldn't. But that's fine. I think Escobar signed a very bad deal. But again, my point was that Segura, barring some catastrophic injury, is likely going to be in the game for a very long time, this years slump notwithstanding.

[SoupTown]

HaT... yes, ha ha, you are correct. If the Brewers offered ME $10 mill right now, I would take it. Heck, I would give them a 10 year ownership of me. (But I am not sure what the going rate is for players covering their years 57 to 67). But, you are right. I would take it.

[monty57]

In final, if I was Segura and the Crew offered me $10 mill now for the next 4 years.... I am taking it.

 

I think the fact that Segura, Axford, McGehee, etc did not take the offered extensions is some proof that Melvin made team-friendly offers to the players. I think he's pretty good at not going overboard with player extensions. Fans may have been saying they'd back up the truck for Segura, but obviously Melvin did not fall into that trap. He likely offered Segura something along the lines of the Lucroy deal and Segura didn't bite. I hope Melvin keeps making these offers to young guys with promise. The worst-case scenario is that the player flames out and the Brewers are out around $10MM. The best case scenario is Lucroy... a star player on a team-friendly deal.

 

The Brewers would probably still sign Segura for something along the lines of your example (4 years/$10MM). However, he seems to want to maximize his pay, and knows that if he starts to hit he'll make a lot more than that. Whatever happens, I am glad we have a young player with some upside on the MLB roster, and more in the low minors. Segura gets a while to prove himself with the Brewers. I have no inside insight, but I don't expect him to sign an extension, so I hope he turns it around and plays well so that we get a few more good years from him and then can flip him for something of value when one of the young guys is ready to take over.

[clancyphile]

Sounds like a heartbreaking issue on the home front:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140716&content_id=84887248&notebook_id=84887706&vkey=notebook_mil&c_id=mil

 

Not sure how much that played into this... but it can't have helped.

[JohnBriggs12]

Sounds like a heartbreaking issue on the home front:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140716&content_id=84887248&notebook_id=84887706&vkey=notebook_mil&c_id=mil

 

Not sure how much that played into this... but it can't have helped.

 

Everyone has been pretty tight lipped about this tragedy in the Brewer organization and the media. There's some unanswered questions to be sure and maybe for his sake they are better left unanswered. Still people will talk and wonder. Good to see his teammates rally around him for support.

[HiAndTight]

Apparently, per 1250, the Brewers are attempting to contact Segura to find out if he has any idea when he may be back. Sounds like they really don't have any idea right now.

 

Given the situation, I'm fine with Bianchi and Herrera for as long as Seggy needs to get everything taken care of.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that it's very unfortunate that this report slipped out there. There should be no rush at all here. Place Jean on the restricted list, and let him set his own timetable. I'm sure that he will contact the team when he's ready.

[Roderick]

I think that it's very unfortunate that this report slipped out there. There should be no rush at all here. Place Jean on the restricted list, and let him set his own timetable. I'm sure that he will contact the team when he's ready.

 

If I heard correctly, 1250 just reported that RR said Segura is back with the team.

[torts]

yeah i just read that he will be playing tomorrow

[HiAndTight]

I think that it's very unfortunate that this report slipped out there. There should be no rush at all here. Place Jean on the restricted list, and let him set his own timetable. I'm sure that he will contact the team when he's ready.

 

 

Well, not that they know he's going to be back with the team, I guess it's a moot point, but perhaps I didn't really relay the message properly.

 

On 1250 they simply said that the Brewers were planning on contacting Segura in the following day or 2 to try and get an idea of when he might return.

 

I didn't get the feeling they were pressuring him, and I certainly hope they weren't. I didn't take the report or the Brewers asking as being insensitive. But the fact is the Brewers needed to know if they were going to need someone to play SS for the next X number of days/weeks.

 

I also assume had he been placed on the restricted list the Brewers would have chosen to pay him. At that point I believe it's up to the team if you pay the salary.

 

 

But either way, he's back. Hopefully it can get his mind off what happened and it can be something the team rally's around.