What is going on with Jean Segura?

[Bombers]

Is he hurt? Is he more of a .243 hitter (2014) than a .294 hitter (2013)?

 

Below is his hit trajectory and his averages ... Is he a mere product of bad luck? (His BA is .077 lower on line drives this year vs last year) ... Fly balls are .107 lower vs last year. Ground balls are .072 lower. I always felt he had a ton of ground ball hits last year. Are they just positioning better? ... What is going on mean Jean?

 

[pre]Hit Trajectory 2014

 

Split . G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip

Ground Balls 62 135 28 0 1 0 5 0.207 0.207 0.222 0.43 0.207

Fly Balls . 28 33 2 0 0 0 2 0.061 0.059 0.061 0.119 0.059

Line Drives 30 47 27 7 1 2 12 0.574 0.574 0.894 1.468 0.556

Bunts . 14 10 6 0 0 0 0 0.600 0.600 0.600 1.2 0.600

 

Hit Trajectory 2013

 

Split . G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip

Ground Balls 136 290 81 2 1 0 15 0.279 0.279 0.293 0.572 0.279

Fly Balls . 74 95 16 2 4 9 14 0.168 0.167 0.558 0.725 0.08

Line Drives 82 106 69 16 5 3 20 0.651 0.645 0.981 1.626 0.635

Bunts . 15 13 7 0 0 0 0 0.538 0.538 0.538 1.077 0.538[/pre]

[Baldkin]

Clearly, it's the same thing as the second half of last year, he's just tired.

 

At least, that's what I was told over and over again when I questioned his horrible second half last year.

 

His first half HR/FB% was 15.3%, second half, 2.3%, this year it's 4.9%.

His popups have gone from 4.2% in the first half, to 7.6 in the second half to 9.8% this season.

His IFH% was 16.2% first half of last year, 7.6% second half and 9.6% this season.

 

Pitchers have adjusted, and infielders aren't playing him way, way, way back anymore.

 

He's seeing way more pitches in the zone overall, and way more first pitch strikes as well.

[lcbj68c]

I honestly don't see the ballyhoo over Segura's batting average. Not everybody on the team is going to be hitting .300. As long as he continues to play the defense that he has, I'm fine with him hitting .250.

 

To answer the original question (why is he hitting .243 instead of .293), he's probably somewhere in the middle of those two numbers, talent wise alone. All of the circumstances listed above is how sometimes you get .293 and sometimes you get .243.

[Bombers]

I honestly don't see the ballyhoo over Segura's batting average. Not everybody on the team is going to be hitting .300. As long as he continues to play the defense that he has, I'm fine with him hitting .250.

 

To answer the original question (why is he hitting .243 instead of .293), he's probably somewhere in the middle of those two numbers, talent wise alone. All of the circumstances listed above is how sometimes you get .293 and sometimes you get .243.

 

I agree - defense is the utmost importance when it comes to your SS. And he has been terrific. I am not suggesting looking into any type of change. I love his game. I was just curious as to what everyone was thinking in terms of offensive expectations. Hopefully he can get back to a .265+ average and not continue to head in the wrong direction

[Pugger]

Last night's game is a good example - he hit the ball on the nose a few times but the ball was caught or didn't get out of the infield.

[danzig6767]

It would help for starters if he didn't have such atrocious plate discipline. Look at what happened with Khris Davis once he stopped hacking at nearly any garbage a pitcher threw him. Davis only drew a single walk in all of April, but has 14 since.

 

I'm not saying that's the only issue hurting Segura, but often it's only really good to elite skilled hitters who can still be highly productive while having below average to bad plate discipline. It's not just the lack of walks which hurt poorly disciplined hitters, it's also harder to square up on pitches out of the strikezone and/or to hit well while being behind in the count a lot.

[Mays Hayes]

Is he hurt? Is he more of a .243 hitter (2014) than a .294 hitter (2013)?

 

 

If he gets just one extra flair a week, just one. A gorp, he gets a ground ball, a ground ball with eyes. He gets a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and he's back up to .294.

[JohnBriggs12]

Last year he hit a lot of slow dribblers that turned into singles. I know much of the year it was comment that he was leading the league in infield hits.

[danzig6767]

Is he hurt? Is he more of a .243 hitter (2014) than a .294 hitter (2013)?

 

 

If he gets just one extra flair a week, just one. A gorp, he gets a ground ball, a ground ball with eyes. He gets a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week and he's back up to .294.

You could say that about every hitter in baseball though. There is a reason why some guys are consistently productive and others aren't. It's not because of luck good or bad, it's simply because some are better hitters than others.

 

I'd be less concerned about Jean if he hadn't also been horrific the second half of last year, but he was. If anything looks flukey, it was his great start to last year. At some point he has to start grasping that being more selective at the plate is much better for his long term desires to be an upper-level shortstop. He's just not good enough to let the pitcher dictate most of his at bats.

[chadomac]

I brought this up in the Segura Extension thread about a week ago. He's been a horrible hitter for almost a year now, but nobody is giving him any flack for a few reasons, the biggest of which is that the Brewers are in 1st place.

 

He swings at a lot of bad pitches and he seems to get "lungy", hitting a lot of weak grounders. He needs to make some adjustments, otherwise he's going to be just another shortstop that can't hit. He sure is a good shortstop, though. I just think he's capable of an OPS of .700+ - but maybe not.

[trwi7]

It would help for starters if he didn't have such atrocious plate discipline.

 

This is the problem. He swings at everything, including a ton of awful pitches and gets himself out.

[Roderick]

It would help for starters if he didn't have such atrocious plate discipline. Look at what happened with Khris Davis once he stopped hacking at nearly any garbage a pitcher threw him. Davis only drew a single walk in all of April, but has 14 since.

 

I'm not saying that's the only issue hurting Segura, but often it's only really good to elite skilled hitters who can still be highly productive while having below average to bad plate discipline. It's not just the lack of walks which hurt poorly disciplined hitters, it's also harder to square up on pitches out of the strikezone and/or to hit well while being behind in the count a lot.

 

I would assume pitchers have figured out he is not going to hit the ball out of the park and to walk him would just be stupid (other than IBB to get to pitcher). So he will not have as many opportunities to take a walk as K.Davis gets for example. I'm sure there is a stat somewhere regarding how often pitchers throw strikes vs balls to Segura vs everyone else or how many swings are to pitches out of the zone for Segura. Is he remarkably more than the average?

[danzig6767]

It would help for starters if he didn't have such atrocious plate discipline. Look at what happened with Khris Davis once he stopped hacking at nearly any garbage a pitcher threw him. Davis only drew a single walk in all of April, but has 14 since.

 

I'm not saying that's the only issue hurting Segura, but often it's only really good to elite skilled hitters who can still be highly productive while having below average to bad plate discipline. It's not just the lack of walks which hurt poorly disciplined hitters, it's also harder to square up on pitches out of the strikezone and/or to hit well while being behind in the count a lot.

 

I would assume pitchers have figured out he is not going to hit the ball out of the park and to walk him would just be stupid (other than IBB to get to pitcher). So he will not have as many opportunities to take a walk as K.Davis gets for example. I'm sure there is a stat somewhere regarding how often pitchers throw strikes vs balls to Segura vs everyone else or how many swings are to pitches out of the zone for Segura. Is he remarkably more than the average?

 

I'm not trying to be a dick by asking this question, but do you watch most of the games? I lost count a long time ago at how often i've yelled at the TV saying why the hell are you swinging at that Jean?

 

Sure he's not alone in doing that. Hell, Braun frustrates me often by the garbage he swings at, but he's so silly skilled that he can still be productive by having only mediocre plate discipline, Segura doesn't possess that hitting skill level.

 

For as much as you could say that pitchers don't fear Segura, so they throw him an abnormal number of strikes, i'd bring up two other things. Pitchers and catchers watch tons of video. So just like they saw with say Yuni that they could throw him lots of pitches outside the strikezone and he'd still swing, it's the same with Jean. Besides that, look at someone like Craig Counsell. He had fly swatter power, yet he had a better walk rate over his career than Braun currently has.

 

Pitchers don't consistently throw fat fastballs right over the plate to any hitters. Plate discipline is a skill and attitude. Segura has neither right now, he just loves to hack.

[gregmag]

It seems like he's just all turned around now. It seems like he's constantly letting pitchers get ahead in the count, then chasing stuff out of the zone.

 

I think his first half last year demonstrates that he has the talent to be a better hitter than he's showing right now. Then, teams didn't know how to pitch and play him, and he also had some exceptional luck (like his HR/FB). Now, teams have adjusted, and he's also having some seriously crappy luck (like last night). The luck will even out, and that will help in the long run. But he needs to refine his approach in a big way if he's going to hit.

 

I think he can do it. He's a young guy who's going through a miserable time at the plate. Maybe it will sink his bat, but I'm hopeful.

[logan82]

Hopefully he can develop a bit as a hitter and keep playing good defense. Otherwise he may have a Yuni like career.

[Mays Hayes]

Just a moment ago he was hitting .274 on the season, and everybody was happy with his bat after having a very solid month of May. June hasn't been good.

 

In the end I think he's a .280+ hitter all day. MLB pitchers & defenses have adjusted to him, and he'll need to do the same... what really disappoints me is that we haven't even seen a trace of the power he flashed in the 1st half of last year, and at times in MiLB.

[danzig6767]

It seems like he's just all turned around now. It seems like he's constantly letting pitchers get ahead in the count, then chasing stuff out of the zone.

 

I think his first half last year demonstrates that he has the talent to be a better hitter than he's showing right now. Then, teams didn't know how to pitch and play him, and he also had some exceptional luck (like his HR/FB). Now, teams have adjusted, and he's also having some seriously crappy luck (like last night). The luck will even out, and that will help in the long run. But he needs to refine his approach in a big way if he's going to hit.

 

I think he can do it. He's a young guy who's going through a miserable time at the plate. Maybe it will sink his bat, but I'm hopeful.

 

The thing i have never been able to grasp is why some players who have bad to terrible plate discipline never really change, even though it hurts their earning power and sometimes even their ability to stay in the majors?

 

I'm not saying that Segura is destined to be a hacker his whole career, some guys do eventually change to varying degrees. Gomez for example is at least a little more disciplined.

 

That said, for players who do really end up hurting their career long term because of terrible plate discipline, why don't they just change their ways?

 

I totally get some really young guys having bad habits at the plate, but if after awhile it's clear that excessive hacking is hurting their career and coaches continually remind these players to look for better pitches to hit, why do they simply refuse to do it? What am i missing?

[trwi7]

Just a moment ago he was hitting .274 on the season, and everybody was happy with his bat after having a very solid month of May. June hasn't been good.

 

I would hardly call .288/.313/.360 a very solid month. I mean compared to what he's done in April and June it's solid but compared to the rest of the league it's still pretty bad.

[sveumrules]

MLB average for shortstops is 251/310/371 thus far in 2014 so compared to the rest of the league Segura's May was pretty much right in the middle, somewhere between very solid and pretty bad.

 

Kind of funny how coming up he was considered a plus hitter whose skills at shortstop were in question and now a couple years later he's proven to be more than capable of handling short but with a questionable bat.

[umphrey]

Ground out to short stop pretty much every time he's at the plate. He has to adjust his swing to get under the ball a bit.

[Funketown]

Much of this just has to be a matter of plate discipline. His out-of-the-zone hacking has been well documented (39.4% which is 10th highest in MLB). But his Z-Swing percentage is lower than most other hackers. Thanks to Fangraphs' handy excel export, I defined (probably unoriginal) Rel-Swing% as the likelihood of swinging at a pitch in the zone, relative to an out of the zone pitch (z-swing/o-swing). The laggards are...

 

V Martinez 1.57

J Segura 1.60

C Johnson 1.64

R Braun 1.66

P Sandoval 1.67

 

If you re-define this as Z-Swing%-O-Swing%, you get basically the same thing. Really this just tells us what we already knew, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

[Baldkin]

Fangraphs chimes in:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/milwaukee-brewers-jean-segura-struggling-to-produce/

 

That’s perhaps what happens when you do nothing but pound balls into the ground, as he’s done this year:

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/segura_heat.jpg

[chadomac]

I hope Jean Segura reads fangraphs.

[dlk9s]

Someone earlier mentioned that Segura seems like he lunges at the plate. From my simple eye test, there seems to be something to this. Obviously, he swings at too many pitches, but he does seem to me to jam himself a lot, even on pitches over the plate.

[The stache]

I think Jean read Fangraphs before tonight's game. Ya, it was Coors Field, but he hit those two home runs a good long way.