Future Extra Picks

[Mr Southpaw]

With a number of contracts expiring, what do we get for these players as far as draft compensation?

 

2015

 

Rickie Weeks Nothing

Francisco Rodriguez Nothing or Maybe

Mark Reynolds Nothing

Lyle Overbay Nothing

Tom Gorzelanny Nothing

Zach Duke Nothing

 

2016

 

Yovani Gallardo End of 1st Round Compensation Pick

Aramis Ramirez Nothing

Marco Estrada ???

Kyle Lohse End of 1st Round Compensation Pick

 

2017

 

Carlos Gomez End of 1st Round Compensation Pick

 

2018

 

Jonathan Lucroy End of 1st Round Compensation Pick

[brewcrewdue80]

At this point the only comps we will be getting are from Gomez and Lucroy. Lucroy has a number of years to go so that's no guarantee being a Catcher he holds up that long in production.

Gallardo is not worthy of any comp. He's back to his untradeable self of last season which easily makes him a non QO guy. If a team won't trade a 1st rd type of pick talent for him, they certainly aren't going to sign him in a QO deal. I don't think the team picks up his option after the year honestly. You want your roster spot for Nelson. That's where it comes from. Dumping Gallardo. I think the Front office likely planned ahead in that scenario by signing Garza as a life w/o Gallardo plan.

 

Kyle Lohse. That's tough. I really doubt teams give up a draft pick for a turning 37 SP. He's going to have to carry an ERA under 3.3 for the 3years with Milw for me to see somebody giving away a pick for him. I guess, a 2nd rd pick given up for him for a team who has a protected 1st rd pick may be the best route to see a team give up a draft pick for Lohse.

But remember the QO price. Lohse just may be happy with that 15mil approx 1year deal vs. going through that FA late signing process again.

 

 

I think a better Comp system that MLB could employ would be to use WAR. Use it on a projected 162 game basis over a player's last 3years of Baseball. If it's above 4WAR on avg then a 1st rd pick comp for the team that loses that player.

If it's 2-4WAR avg then just a 2nd rd pick comp for the team that loses that player. The FA has to be on the team for a full season.

A team only loses the rd the FA would give in compensation. So if you sign Lohse who's on pace for that 2nd rd comp currently that team only loses a 2nd rd pick.

That's how I'd do FA comps currently. As great as Lucroy has been he's not a 1st rd comp just yet. But it's close.

 

I'd probably have an age of 34 as to where no comp is given out. That FA to be's age shouldn't explode his price beyond what his current team can afford. Nobody is going to sign Lohse to a 16+mil deal longer than 2years when he becomes a FA.

 

My lastest idea to fix the problem. I'd probably also add that no Comp pick player can sign for 1year and then return that team who signs that player a comp pick when leaving via FA the following season. The player must be signed for 2years minimum to get the comp. So no team cashes in on say an 8WAR season prior to FA signs that player for 1year knowing it's almost impossible to not get a 1st/2nd rd comp when he departs the following season. That player has to perform for the Comp pick contract at least 2years to factor in his next FA 3year WAR Compensation when depart FA.

It's a newer statistics/analytical age in Baseball. We talk about WAR so much so let's just use it for FA Compensation.

[trwi7]

Gomez, Lucroy and maybe Gallardo. That's it.