Extending Carlos Gomez

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

As a big critic of the Hardy-Gomez trade for several years, I have come full circle and appreciate what Go-Go brings to our team and I'm wondering if there is any way we can keep him long term. He is signed through his 29 (this year), 30 (next year), and 31 (2016) seasons, meaning that any new deal would be for years 32+. With the highway robbery we committed with his 3/24 deal, i'm sure he'll be looking for the money, though he's entering FA a little later than many elite players

 

I'm not sure who would be a good comparison for how we expect Gomez to age (since speed/defense are pretty critical to him being an elite player), but assuming the Brewers wanted to get this done, what would it take? 7/140 ?? (age 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38 seasons) ?? I'm trying to remember how old Jim Edmonds was when he finally lost a step.

 

Given that Gomez will have made $30M+ by the time he hits free agency, there is little/no incentive for give him to give us a discount. I'm pumped we probably got him for his 4-5 "prime years", but I'm wondering if there is any way we can afford/retain him.

[DoubleSwitch]

Gomez is one of the elite players in all of baseball. It would take 5/100 to even start the conversation, and I don't think I'd be comfortable with those numbers. It's too hard to predict what kind of player he would be then with diminished speed and defense. Let's just enjoy getting one great deal and see where things lead.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well, Since a WAR in FA has a 5mil value tied to it Right now that gives Gomez a 35mil per year price tag. The man should command 25mil-28mil per year when his contract ends. My guess in a 5 year deal 125-135mil deal.

 

What it means is Gomez has to take a discount to sign for Milwaukee again or it means we're just going to end up QO'ing him for a draft pick.

 

Do we trade Gomez in the 2015-16 offseason? Or play him with just the QO/trade deadline in mind should we not end up contending in 2016?

 

I think it's safe to assume we keep him and use the QO tag if he doesn't take that 5/100mil contract extension. Not even sure the QO/draft comp system will be around so how the new system is hashed out will also detemine what to do.

[sveumrules]

Love watching Gomez play but given his all out style of play and the increased injury risk that comes along with it I would not extend him past his current deal. Enjoy having one of the best and most exciting players in baseball on one of the most team friendly deals out there while it lasts.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I would offer Gomez a 3 year $60 million extension right now. As in today. I would structure it as adding $5 mill to each of '15 & '16 salaries and then salaries of $16, $17 & $17 for '17-'19. It would be hard for a guy to turn down a guaranteed $60 million when he is 2.5 years away from FA. Plus if he is healthy he can still command a good salary for years '20 - '23 (age 34-37) like a Mike Cameron or Tori Hunter.

[HiAndTight]

I would offer Gomez a 3 year $60 million extension right now. As in today. I would structure it as adding $5 mill to each of '15 & '16 salaries and then salaries of $16, $17 & $17 for '17-'19. It would be hard for a guy to turn down a guaranteed $60 million when he is 2.5 years away from FA. Plus if he is healthy he can still command a good salary for years '20 - '23 (age 34-37) like a Mike Cameron or Tori Hunter.

 

This is the only way that I'd extend Gomez. I would be willing to go a bit higher than 3 years and 60 million to get it done, but there is no way I'd want to wait until his contract is up because I do think he'd be able to command a 7 year deal for big time dollars. No idea what that will be in a few more years. It could be 7 years and 210 million with the money coming into MLB. And as good as he is right now, I don't think he's going to be a premier player at 34-37. So 3 years, even 70 million. And maybe he's a Carlos Beltran type player who at that point can earn 2 year deals for good money to finish his career.

 

I'm just appreciating the fact that we've got this guy, we've got him in his prime and get to watch him play with SUCH enthusiasm. I doubt we'll see him end his career in Milwaukee, but I'm going to love watch him in the meantime. And who knows, the guy is so crazy(in a good way) maybe he really does love the Brewers and wants to sign here at a hometown discount.

[reillymcshane]

Love watching Gomez play but given his all out style of play and the increased injury risk that comes along with it I would not extend him past his current deal.

Carlos' playing style really scares me - especially the crazy swings of his. I feel like he's going to wrench his back one day.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd lean against it. Boras is going to want to really cash in after really being outsmarted the last time. At worst, they extend him a QO for 2017 insuring a number one pick in return. Tyrone Taylor's ETA closely aligns with Gomez' contract running out. The development of Taylor might be the key.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd do 5/100 in a heart beat for Gomez right now.

[fondybrewfan]

I'd lean against it. Boras is going to want to really cash in after really being outsmarted the last time. At worst, they extend him a QO for 2017 insuring a number one pick in return. Tyrone Taylor's ETA closely aligns with Gomez' contract running out. The development of Taylor might be the key.

 

And Monte Harrison for that matter as well although I don't know if he would be considered more of a corner OF or CF. Either way in 2017 he would have about 2.5 years of pro ball under his belt; you never know. I hope Taylor would be ready even before 2017. AA/AAA in 2015 and if he has a solid 1st half I am hoping he is in play for a September call up in 2015 and perhaps an opening day roster spot in 2016.

[HiAndTight]

I'd do 5/100 in a heart beat for Gomez right now.

 

 

There is a good chance that would get it done right now. Especially if the Brewers were to add in some type of signing bonus. 10 million perhaps so he would cost 18 million per year through 2021. That's a lot of money right now, but with salaries rising at the moment...

 

Meh, I don't know. I wouldn't want to make that decision. If he suffers any type of back injury or leg injury, it could be a much bigger deal for him than most players just given how he plays the game and in particular how he swings the bat.

 

I wouldn't bash the Brewers for making this deal, but I'm not sure I'd be completely on board either. He still has over 2.5 years left on his current deal.

 

 

 

What does everyone think Gomez would get if he were a free agent this off-season? 7 years 160? If Jacoby Ellsbury got 7/153 I would think Gomez could get at least that.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Gomez could get 180-200 million in FA, if he were a hypothetical FA this year. He's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that last year was not at all a fluke, and that he is one of the game's elite CF'ers.

[HiAndTight]

Gomez could get 180-200 million in FA, if he were a hypothetical FA this year. He's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that last year was not at all a fluke, and that he is one of the game's elite CF'ers.

 

 

He has certainly proven he's one of the best in the game since the start of last year and the year before that, he was just a very good overall player.

 

But don't you have just a little concern in the back of your mind that he's the type of guy who could slump and struggle offensively a great deal? He's locked in right now and even if he was a .280 hitter, he'd be a top 10 player overall most likely, I still have a small fear that he could really drop off offensively with his all or nothing type approach. I think even if that happened, he'd still be a very good player, but not a 6-7-8 WAR player. He seems more prone to a regression than Lucroy for example.

 

Still, outside of Trout or McCutchen, I can't think of a CF'er who'd be more valuable as a FA right now.

[monty57]

We got him on a really good deal for his prime years. Let someone else give him huge money for his decline years.

[Warning Track Power]

Right now he is signed for 2 years (2015-2016) for $17 million. Let's say the Brewers approached him about extending that deal. Would you have interest in extending that through his age 31, 32 & 33 seasons at ~$21 million per? Essentially giving Carlos a 5 year deal at $80 million? I am not sure he takes this but I would at least broach the topic with him and spread that additional $60 million over the five years i.e. pay him $16 million per over the next five years rather than $8, $9, $21, $21, $21.

 

If I were Gomez, I think I would do it.

[superfly]

Gomez could get 180-200 million in FA, if he were a hypothetical FA this year. He's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that last year was not at all a fluke, and that he is one of the game's elite CF'ers.

 

 

He has certainly proven he's one of the best in the game since the start of last year and the year before that, he was just a very good overall player.

 

But don't you have just a little concern in the back of your mind that he's the type of guy who could slump and struggle offensively a great deal? He's locked in right now and even if he was a .280 hitter, he'd be a top 10 player overall most likely, I still have a small fear that he could really drop off offensively with his all or nothing type approach. I think even if that happened, he'd still be a very good player, but not a 6-7-8 WAR player. He seems more prone to a regression than Lucroy for example.

 

Still, outside of Trout or McCutchen, I can't think of a CF'er who'd be more valuable as a FA right now.

 

Buxton will be up there in a few years, maybe even higher than Trout, but agree...the only others I can think of that could be in the conversation is Puig and MAYBE Ellsbury.

[SoupTown]

I would be tempted to try something perhaps 'evil'. He is getting so underpaid and he is not set up as a multi-ten-millionaire yet. So I say to Carlos 'we cannot afford a big extension, but we want to do something that helps US and helps YOU and still give you a chance for a massive payday. We will add ONE year to the end of your contract for 20 mill. But we will pay it 5 mill signing bonus now and 15 mill for that extra year.

 

I know we cannot afford 20 mill a year for many years. And Carlos will likely get that. But maybe we can get ONE of those years. And it is even a bit of insurance for Gomez. He has not been paid enough yet to be a super rich. But with one extra year added, he will be really set up for life.

[Roderick]

We got him on a really good deal for his prime years. Let someone else give him huge money for his decline years.

 

This would be my answer. I can still remember when Paul Molitor pulled a muscle in his rib cage when he was leading the league in batting. I figure Gomez for one of those before he is all said and done.

[chadomac]

We got him on a really good deal for his prime years. Let someone else give him huge money for his decline years.

 

I agree completely. I love the guy, but I'm okay with letting him go after this deal.

 

Also, his violent/jerky swing makes me worry about back problems as he ages.

[HiAndTight]

Gomez could get 180-200 million in FA, if he were a hypothetical FA this year. He's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that last year was not at all a fluke, and that he is one of the game's elite CF'ers.

 

 

He has certainly proven he's one of the best in the game since the start of last year and the year before that, he was just a very good overall player.

 

But don't you have just a little concern in the back of your mind that he's the type of guy who could slump and struggle offensively a great deal? He's locked in right now and even if he was a .280 hitter, he'd be a top 10 player overall most likely, I still have a small fear that he could really drop off offensively with his all or nothing type approach. I think even if that happened, he'd still be a very good player, but not a 6-7-8 WAR player. He seems more prone to a regression than Lucroy for example.

 

Still, outside of Trout or McCutchen, I can't think of a CF'er who'd be more valuable as a FA right now.

 

Buxton will be up there in a few years, maybe even higher than Trout, but agree...the only others I can think of that could be in the conversation is Puig and MAYBE Ellsbury.

 

 

Buxton looks like a GREAT prospect, but Trout? Trout might end up being the best player of my lifetime. When was the last time a player came up and was as physically talented and productive as Trout?

 

In fact, when was the last time a player came up with Trout's ability? Mickey Mantle? Plus, Buxton is 20 and in A+. Trout was dominating MLB as a 20 year old.

 

It does seem like there are more really outstanding young OF'ers coming up right now than there has been in a while. If you throw Harper, Trout into the mix, Buxton, Polanco, Taveras, Springer, Puig...

[TooLiveBrew]

Buxton looks like a GREAT prospect, but Trout? Trout might end up being the best player of my lifetime. When was the last time a player came up and was as physically talented and productive as Trout?

 

In fact, when was the last time a player came up with Trout's ability? Mickey Mantle? Plus, Buxton is 20 and in A+. Trout was dominating MLB as a 20 year old.

 

It does seem like there are more really outstanding young OF'ers coming up right now than there has been in a while. If you throw Harper, Trout into the mix, Buxton, Polanco, Taveras, Springer, Puig...

First two that come to mind are Griffey Jr & A-Rod... must've been fun to be a Mariners fan in the '90s

[HiAndTight]

Buxton looks like a GREAT prospect, but Trout? Trout might end up being the best player of my lifetime. When was the last time a player came up and was as physically talented and productive as Trout?

 

In fact, when was the last time a player came up with Trout's ability? Mickey Mantle? Plus, Buxton is 20 and in A+. Trout was dominating MLB as a 20 year old.

 

It does seem like there are more really outstanding young OF'ers coming up right now than there has been in a while. If you throw Harper, Trout into the mix, Buxton, Polanco, Taveras, Springer, Puig...

First two that come to mind are Griffey Jr & A-Rod... must've been fun to be a Mariners fan in the '90s

 

 

Griffey came to mind for sure, but Trout is even better. Walks more, hit for more power, and stole almost as many bases in Trout's age 20 season(49) than Griffey did in his first 3 years(16,16,18).

 

 

Arod is obviously in the discussion. Both kinda show how great you can be at 19, 20 and just how hard it is to reach what Hank, Ruth, Mays and company did. God does it make me sick that Mike Trout isn't playing LF right now for the Brewers(or RF..or CF, whatever). Eric-friggin-Arnett because the Yankees decide they have to one up the Red Sox and sign him out of the blue. But I digress. Guy is going to be a blast to watch the next 15 years.

[TooLiveBrew]

Buxton looks like a GREAT prospect, but Trout? Trout might end up being the best player of my lifetime. When was the last time a player came up and was as physically talented and productive as Trout?

 

In fact, when was the last time a player came up with Trout's ability? Mickey Mantle? Plus, Buxton is 20 and in A+. Trout was dominating MLB as a 20 year old.

 

It does seem like there are more really outstanding young OF'ers coming up right now than there has been in a while. If you throw Harper, Trout into the mix, Buxton, Polanco, Taveras, Springer, Puig...

First two that come to mind are Griffey Jr & A-Rod... must've been fun to be a Mariners fan in the '90s

 

 

Griffey came to mind for sure, but Trout is even better. Walks more, hit for more power, and stole almost as many bases in Trout's age 20 season(49) than Griffey did in his first 3 years(16,16,18).

 

 

Arod is obviously in the discussion. Both kinda show how great you can be at 19, 20 and just how hard it is to reach what Hank, Ruth, Mays and company did. God does it make me sick that Mike Trout isn't playing LF right now for the Brewers(or RF..or CF, whatever). Eric-friggin-Arnett because the Yankees decide they have to one up the Red Sox and sign him out of the blue. But I digress. Guy is going to be a blast to watch the next 15 years.

Trout's probably playing in a more difficult offensive era as well.

[HiAndTight]

Trout's probably playing in a more difficult offensive era as well.

 

 

Agreed. Griffey was my favorite non-Brewer(wasn't he everyone's). But we might not see another Mike Trout in our lifetime. I keep going back to Mantle. The whole package of power, speed, D, everything you want in a player. 2 time MVP runner up by age 21. He might average 9 WAR over his first 10 years...if not more.