Jungman, Yo, Roach for David Price

[rickh150]

This deal intrigues me:

Yo is a solid #3 pitcher with team control through 2015 (13 mil)

Jungman is an up and coming pitcher- tall, lanky frame

Roach has huge power- something the Rays lack

 

for

 

David Price- one of the top 5 pitchers in the game

 

His deal is up this year and his signing would put the Brewers in a definite driver's seat for the division and playoffs. We'd have Nelson shoring up the pitching next year, along with Fiers, Thornburg, or Pena. We would be "saving" money from the loss of Yo to put into some other pitching, as well. Perhaps Smith would be looked at as a starter next year, as well.

[TheCrew07]

I've never really understood the fascination around baseball with picking up rental players.

 

Regardless I don't see why the Rays would make this trade. Roache and Jungmann aren't the type of high ceiling prospects they typically go after. Roache has wonderful raw power but he doesn't have a good enough hit tool and Jungmann doesn't have "stuff", neither of the players are even top 100 prospects. The Rays might trade Price but they are going to be looking for multiple impact prospects coming back because Price is that good and he's a LHP. They'd want a couple of players in the top 50, not a couple of top 10 prospects from the second worst farm system in baseball.

[pogokat]

Yeah, it would be Nelson, Taylor, and Arcia....

 

And not worth it...

[lcbj68c]

Saying his deal is up is not completely accurate. He has his final year of arby eligible next year and won't be a free agent until 2016. So to rid yourself of Gallardo's $13M and acquire Price's $16M estimate in 2015 (he made $14M in 2014), isn't exactly the way the Brewers do business.

 

Having lived in Tampa and having followed the Rays closely from 1998-2007; 2009-2013, I can tell you that isn't how they do business either. There is no way that Friedman is going to trade away 1.5 years of Price and take on Gallardo for $3M less to simply acquire marginal pitching talent and a prospective power bat. Friedman typically acquires one thing and it's young, controllable, can't miss starting pitching. It's to a fault and it shows. They don't acquire the bats they need and it's why they aren't more successful. I realize there takes culpability that I'm not insinuating was even there, but the Rays could/should have acquired Prince Fielder for Jeremy Hellickson in 2010, but they just won't part with their starting pitching.

 

I don't have a pulse on the long term for Price, but I'd put the odds at 1% that he gets traded in 2014. IF the Rays are in the same position in June 2015 that they are now, I think they will trade him. Unfortunately, I don't think the Brewers have enough of what they want. Young, controllable, CAN'T MISS, starting pitchers.

[SRB]

Victor Roache needs to bring his OBP above .260 in high-A before he is the type of player that lands David Price...

[DoubleSwitch]

How about Lyle Overbay and Rickie Weeks for Price, Zobrist and Longoria as long as we're being silly.

[phnxcrew]

I could see some scenario where the braves acquire gallardo for a couple prospects and we spin them plus a few of ours for price. He isn't exactly hot right now and the right combination of young bats/ pitchers might at least turn their heads

[HiAndTight]

I've never really understood the fascination around baseball with picking up rental players.

 

Regardless I don't see why the Rays would make this trade. Roache and Jungmann aren't the type of high ceiling prospects they typically go after. Roache has wonderful raw power but he doesn't have a good enough hit tool and Jungmann doesn't have "stuff", neither of the players are even top 100 prospects. The Rays might trade Price but they are going to be looking for multiple impact prospects coming back because Price is that good and he's a LHP. They'd want a couple of players in the top 50, not a couple of top 10 prospects from the second worst farm system in baseball.

 

 

I think it's just about as simple as it gets. Teams that are contending want to add impact players who can significantly improve their chances to win a World Series. The Brewers have almost everything you want. Good pitching, good relievers, good position players(poor bench). But they're lacking an ace. Someone who could possibly matchup with Kershaw or Wainwright.

And he's not exactly a rental.

 

 

As far as the trade scenario, the Brewers would have more success trying a three team trade, trading Gallardo for prospects and then trading those prospects to the Rays along with a couple of their own. I'd be happy to just go with what we have however. Maybe Nelson gets a shot and has a Wacha like run and we make a couple small tweaks, ie, adding a bench player or two. But as nice as Price would be, I don't want to sacrifice 18 years of team control for him at this point.

[rickh150]

Didn't know Price has another year........ in hindsight, not a great idea for the Rays.

 

However, the better discussion is if Price (or another top 10 pitcher) would be worth getting this year if it would bring Milwaukee to a World Series, regardless of cost to the minor leagues. I'd say no, but I did hesitate.... World Series in Milwaukee? Boy....

[jjkoestler]

Didn't know Price has another year........ in hindsight, not a great idea for the Rays.

 

However, the better discussion is if Price (or another top 10 pitcher) would be worth getting this year if it would bring Milwaukee to a World Series, regardless of cost to the minor leagues. I'd say no, but I did hesitate.... World Series in Milwaukee? Boy....

 

Isn't winning a WS the point of playing baseball? I'd gladly gut the Brewers system if it meant a trip to the WS.

[monty57]

would be worth getting this year if it would bring Milwaukee to a World Series

 

Well sure if you knew you'd win the World Series. However, what "rental" players do is slightly bump up the odds for a chance to make the playoffs / win the World Series in the current year. For that bump, you are giving up the "future potential" you are trading away. Basically, you're raising the odds this year by lowering the odds in future years.

 

Lot of variables, but you're looking at very small sample sizes. Over half a season, a good player can perform poorly or a bad player can play like an All Star. So, unlike extending a good young player to a multi-year deal where you can be reasonably assured that he will perform well over the length of the contract, with a mid-season rental, you are hoping you don't catch the player when he's ready to hit a "cold streak," or get injured.

 

Fans tend to like "rental" players because it gives them the feeling their team is "doing what it takes." Sometimes it works, and more often it doesn't (only one team wins the World Series every year). The funny thing is that fans/media rip teams for not "doing what it takes," but rarely is a team ridiculed for making a mid-season trade and still not winning, even though they probably cost themselves future wins in their futility.

 

Very few "rental" plays end up like Sabathia, who pitched ridiculously well after the trade, but that one trade is seemingly seen as the expected outcome of any mid-season rental. That's not always the case - often the "rental" player doesn't play up to expectations. Which one would we get if we decide to give up any of our few decent prospects for the chance to "go for it" this year?

 

But, beyond all that, the "superstar rental" doesn't seem to be out there, and even if he was, the Brewers are lacking in top-notch prospects they're willing to give up in order to get him, so I think this is a moot point. More likely, the Brewers will trade some of their non-Nelson pitching prospects to find a "Hairston-type" upgrade for the stretch.

[Warning Track Power]

Isn't winning a WS the point of playing baseball? I'd gladly gut the Brewers system if it meant a trip to the WS.

Interesting point you bring up here...would I trade 1 phenomenal season that results in a World Series trip for 5-7 seasons of terrible (55 wins) to below average (70 wins) Brewer teams? Honestly, in the economics of baseball, I think I would rather take the Brewers consistently winning 80-90 games yearly with an outside shot at the World Series every 5-7 years rather than a guaranteed World Series trip coupled by season after season of dismal teams.

[3and2Fastball]

I think it'd more be like Nelson for Price and no its not worth it

[fondybrewfan]

Rays are definitely going to be in sell mode so someone will probably be getting Price.

 

I really want to keep Nelson at all costs so there probably isn't a good enough package out there. Even if you included say Thornburg, Taylor, Roache, and Haniger that wouldn't probably be close to enough.

 

I don't think the Brewers will be in the market for the top tier players but I think they have the ability to pick up a player or two on that 2nd tier; who that is I wouldn't have the faintest idea. Feldman or Jeff S (It is just easier) might be possibilities from the Cubs perhaps; maybe James Shields from the Royals. Those guys could be had for a lot less than Price.

[HiAndTight]

Didn't know Price has another year........ in hindsight, not a great idea for the Rays.

 

However, the better discussion is if Price (or another top 10 pitcher) would be worth getting this year if it would bring Milwaukee to a World Series, regardless of cost to the minor leagues. I'd say no, but I did hesitate.... World Series in Milwaukee? Boy....

 

Isn't winning a WS the point of playing baseball? I'd gladly gut the Brewers system if it meant a trip to the WS.

 

 

 

I probably would also....and if David Price guaranteed a world series victory, I might have a different opinion.

 

But he does not. He guarantees that we DO end up losing out on a LOT of service time(24-30 years) of VERY GOOD to decent big league production for the opportunity to try and win it all with Price these next 2 years.

 

Put it this way, in 2011, would you have traded David Price for Lucroy, Gomez, Peralta, Nelson and another prospect? Because those players values at that time is at least what it would have taken to get Price(at his current value). No guarantee Coulter, Nelson, Arcia, Taylor+ ends up being as good, but these will be a bidding war for a dominant left handed ace, and we're going to have to give up a LOT to get him.

 

 

I'm with the others who'd rather give up Taylor Jungman for a Martin Prado type player who can provide depth at a number of positions....for example.

[superfly]

Samardjzia would be better than any P on our roster save Lohse.

[Roderick]

I don't follow the other teams that closely, especially the AL. Is Price still an ace? On the face of it, he has an ERA of 4 and batters are hitting .265 off from him. Blip or something more? Will be 29 in August, so I am assuming just a blip.....

[ewitkows]

I think Samardjzia is hugely overrated

[phnxcrew]

I think Samardjzia is hugely overrated

 

I agree. Hot start to 1 season does not come close to meaning he's an ace. I would still take lohse, gallardo, garza, even peralta over him.

[fondybrewfan]

I would still sure has hell take Samardjzia if the price is right though. There are like 10 aces in the entire league. I don't like labeling guys like that; he would be a welcome addition in my book and I would rather have him around than keeping Gallardo or Lohse beyond their current contracts. Of course you would have to sign him long term to accomplish that. Doing a deal with the Cubs probably isn't likely but I would rather give up what it take to get him then completely sell out for Price or what everyone calls an "Ace"

[HiAndTight]

I think Samardjzia is hugely overrated

 

I agree. Hot start to 1 season does not come close to meaning he's an ace. I would still take lohse, gallardo, garza, even peralta over him.

 

 

It's a bit more than ONE hot start to a season. He may not be an "ace," but neither are any of the pitchers you mentioned. And of the four, I find it ironic you say "even," Peralta when Peralta would have the most value of the 4.

 

He's clearly a superior option to Gallardo.

 

Shark averaged 94 MPH on his fastball, he strikes out more than a batter per inning. He's ascending while Gallardo is declining and he's been more valuable than Yo the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile we'd control him for the same period of time, yet he'd be much cheaper.

 

 

The only pitcher in that group you can argue has out performed Samardzija since the start of 2012 has been Lohse(and that's debatable). He'd be our best pitcher and he's a legit power pitcher who can dominate. He's simply gone from a very good #2 starter to pitching like an ace this year. If in some bizzaro world the Cubs would consider trading him for any of our starters, the only ones I might not trade would be Peralta and Nelson. He's got some of the nastiest stuff in the game.

 

But we don't likely have the pieces the Cubs want anyway.

 

Samardjzia would be better than any P on our roster save Lohse.

 

Again, I think you could make a strong argument he'd be better than Lohse as well.

[3and2Fastball]

Samardzia is a very very good pitcher and would be an upgrade to any MLB team's rotation

[Warning Track Power]

Any trade for David Price, assuming it is even realistic, would require him signing a long term contract. Given that won't happen, I don't think we need to even entertain this as an option. Having said that, we're "all in" apparently, so who knows. I will not be happy if Nelson is included in any deal as the rotation in 2 seasons hopefully includes 2 #2s in Peralta and Nelson.

[superfly]

Any trade for David Price, assuming it is even realistic, would require him signing a long term contract. Given that won't happen, I don't think we need to even entertain this as an option. Having said that, we're "all in" apparently, so who knows. I will not be happy if Nelson is included in any deal as the rotation in 2 seasons hopefully includes 2 #2s in Peralta and Nelson.

 

Agree. I don't think we could get him signed to a LT extension, not if we couldn't get Greinke to. Assuming he would agree to an extension though, I would definitely pull the trigger. We need a good LH arm really bad and I would part with Nelson to make that happen.

 

Don't forget that Price is only 28, we could get quite a few good seasons out of his arm before he even gets to that age we usually sign FA starters at, lol. Price is not that far from elite in the AL (WHIP and ERA are similar to Yu Darvish), if he moved to the NL I think he could very well be in the Cy Young discussions for multiple seasons. Hell even Liriano pulled it off when he moved leagues, anybody can.