At what point does Nelson replace Estrada?

[reillymcshane]

Has anyone heard anything about Henderson and Thornburg? Just curious.

[torts]

three great posts about Cole and Polanco as it relates to Super 2 and service time

 

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2014/6/9/5793774/why-is-gregory-polanco-still-in-the-minors

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2014/04/super-two-and-the-impact-on-gerrit-cole-and-gregory-polanco.html

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/service-time-super-two/

 

a year of service is 172 days, so if the super 2 cut off was 2 years and 121 days that means the total days over that period was 465 days in the majors over the first three seasons, with at least 86 of them coming in the year prior. So it will depend on what the Super 2 cutoff at the end of the 2016 season will be. The lowest it has ever been is 2.122, so using that as a base that would mean Nelson, by the end of the 2016 season, would have to have less than 466 days of Service in the Majors. Since he's already got 30, that means he would need 436. If he pitches all of 2015 and 2016 in the majors that will account for 366 days (a season is 183 days, a year of service is 172 days). 436 minus 366 leaves 70 days. from from the all star break to the end of the season there are 73 days left. That would mean he could end the 2016 season, if he starts from the all star break and never goes back to the minors with 466 days of service, which theoretically would be below the Super 2 cut off since its not expected to ever go below 2.122 years of service time.

[JohnBriggs12]

If a year of service amounts to 172 days where are you getting 366 for two years? Shouldn't it be 344? Adding in the 30 he already has that puts him at 374. 465 (172+172+121) - 374 = 91 days which Nelson would now be under for the remainder of 2014.

 

That's how the story on Polanco reads, that Polanco could have fell under the 2.122 at the end of May but they added 10 days as a precaution.

[Baldkin]

Has anyone heard anything about Henderson and Thornburg? Just curious.

 

Henderson was on a local radio station a few days ago. He said he's progressing well, but no real timetable yet for his return. Also mentioned they try to look at things like that in a weekly window, so it's not something he's truly thought about with regards to a date way out in the future.

[brewcrew03]

I'm a little fuzzy on how MLB views constantly calling up and sending down a player to limit their service time, but I see three possible scenarios for Nelson...

 

First, Polanco was called up on June 10th to avoid Super 2. Nelson has 32 more service days than Polanco so that puts his "safe" call up date at July 12th. Now this just happens to coincide with an Estrada match-up against the Cardinals. Would be a perfect time for Nelson to come up.

 

The second option is to create a little buffer but only have Estrada pitch one additional game. Estrada pitches July 12th, the all-star break happens July 14-17, the Brewers pitch their top 4 in the rotation after the all-star break with Estrada pitching out of the pen and call up Nelson to pitch July 22nd against the Reds. Adds an additional 10 day service time buffer and we only have 1 additional Estrada start.

 

The third option, and the league and players association may frown on this due to messing with a player's service time to their detriment, is call Nelson up for the start on the 12th, send him down, and then call him up for good to start on the 22nd.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm a little fuzzy on how MLB views constantly calling up and sending down a player to limit their service time, but I see three possible scenarios for Nelson...

 

First, Polanco was called up on June 10th to avoid Super 2. Nelson has 32 more service days than Polanco so that puts his "safe" call up date at July 12th. Now this just happens to coincide with an Estrada match-up against the Cardinals. Would be a perfect time for Nelson to come up.

 

The second option is to create a little buffer but only have Estrada pitch one additional game. Estrada pitches July 12th, the all-star break happens July 14-17, the Brewers pitch their top 4 in the rotation after the all-star break with Estrada pitching out of the pen and call up Nelson to pitch July 22nd against the Reds. Adds an additional 10 day service time buffer and we only have 1 additional Estrada start.

 

The third option, and the league and players association may frown on this due to messing with a player's service time to their detriment, is call Nelson up for the start on the 12th, send him down, and then call him up for good to start on the 22nd.

Interesting scenarios to chew over. My money would be on #2.

[torts]

If a year of service amounts to 172 days where are you getting 366 for two years? Shouldn't it be 344? Adding in the 30 he already has that puts him at 374. 465 (172+172+121) - 374 = 91 days which Nelson would now be under for the remainder of 2014.

 

That's how the story on Polanco reads, that Polanco could have fell under the 2.122 at the end of May but they added 10 days as a precaution.

 

Because from day 1 of the season there are 183 days that count towards service, you accrue 1.011 service time if you are on an mlb roster from opening day to the end of the season (172 + 11 days). The fangraphs article mentioned this, which is why you see a player usually get called up a couple weeks into a season at the earliest. Thats my interpretation of the calculation of service time

[brewcrewdue80]

So, looking ahead to the schedule, Estrada's next two starts are vs. Philly and Cole Hamels and vs. StL and Adam Wainwright.

 

Considering the Dominating ability of those two pitchers, and Estrada being HR prone, it only makes sense to start Nelson both games and then do what someone else suggested, send him down and call him back up 10days later. You can piggyback the two if Nelson struggles. Which would actually be a good show of what Estrada has out of the bullpen....Does his FB add 2MPH to it which makes his changeup play more effective? And he's not as HR prone because of the added MPH?

 

Meanwhile, you can just give Nelson those starts and tell him, look this is going to be tough matchup for our batters, these are Cy Young ability pitchers and a lot of zeroes are going to get put up on the board by them. Do your best to keep us in the game but don't try to be perfect to matchup up to what took these two pitchers years to reach in ability....You'll get there. No pressure bud.

[torts]

That could be a good plan of attack!

[HiAndTight]

Personally I think they need to bring up Jeffress yesterday; demote either Kintzler or Wooten. Maybe Jeffress flames out again but he has got better stuff then both of those guys. Kintzler is really struggling right now.

 

 

I think they keep Kintzler up. I get the feeling that they believe they need him to return to 2013 form in order to fortify their bullpen. Unfortunately he's been struggling as of late. Well, the last two outings. I thought he had a nice stretch in there where he was locating better and had added some zip to his fastball.

 

But Jeffress really does need to be brought up. From what I've heard his curve has improved, his command LOOKS as though it's improved a great deal from his lines, and 98 MPH is hard to hit even if his command isn't great. Maybe we luck out and he comes up and pitches great, maybe he walks too many and struggles. But isn't now the time to figure that out? I'd hate to see Tyrone Taylor or Arcia going somewhere in a trade before we at least try a couple different things. Jeffress/Duke/Gorz in the 7th, Smith and then hopefully Henderson/Thornburg in the 8th and K-Rod in the 9th. And Kintzler coming in the 6th if a starter gets into trouble to try and get ground balls if he can get the ship back on course.

 

I know Estrada is likely to figure in there somewhere after Nelson's inevitable callup(hopefully inevitable) but I don't think he's a good fit in the pen. I think he's just about done as an effective big league pitcher.

[Mr Southpaw]

Henderson pitched at Arizona last night. Help is on the way.

[HiAndTight]

late July was a guesstimate, but going off of what designates Super-2 status:

"a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% in total service in the two-to-three class"

 

he's already got 30 days of service time to date (29 last year and 1 this year so far, right?), there are 73 days (games + days off) of service remaining after the All-Star game. if 86 is the "magic number" to get below they would have to wait until the August 5th home stand against the Giants to ensure missing that extra year of arbitration. If I am mistaken on this let me know, its confusing, but that is my understanding.

 

 

It reads to me that he would have to fit both criteria. Have 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season AND rank in the top 22%. Or is that worded incorrectly or am I understanding that incorrectly?

 

You're adding up the two numbers to come up with the August 5th date. So is it supposed to mean seasons as in plural. 86 service days in the preceding seasons?

Meanwhile Nelson and his sub 2.00 ERA with a ton of strike outs and minimal HR's is rotting away in AAA.

 

Working to become a better pitcher is hardly rotting away. If he is needed he will be there whole and unrotten.

 

I agree with Trwi, at some point, you're no longer getting better. Nelson is at that point. He doesn't have anything left to do in AAA. Plus, he's eating up innings down there. Which is great...unless you get into a situation where he is one of their best pitchers down the stretch, but you have to make the choice to either limit his innings or push him and extend him and risk injury by having him throw 195-200 innings if we make the playoffs.

 

And, this may not be an immediate concern, but a power pitcher is almost EVERY case is going to wear down and have at least one major injury. Maybe Nelson won't. But when you combine the unquestionable fact that he is ready with the probability that he will eventually suffer an injury, doesn't it just make more sense to get him up here as quickly as possible? Granted, that shouldn't be THEE reason and we should wait until we're clear of super2 status, but it's not like there aren't downsides to him going 7 strong every time out in Nashville. Even if he can do it on 85 pitches.

[torts]

86 of the games must come in the prior season, so if a player was called up day 1 of a season for the full year, then in their 2nd year they only played in 80 games, and then played a full season their third year then they wouldnt qualify at the end of the third season for super 2 because they didnt play in 86 games in the season prior

[HiAndTight]

86 of the games must come in the prior season, so if a player was called up day 1 of a season for the full year, then in their 2nd year they only played in 80 games, and then played a full season their third year then they wouldnt qualify at the end of the third season for super 2 because they didnt play in 86 games in the season prior

 

 

If this is the case, then why are you adding up the 30 days he's got between last year and this year(29 last year and 1 this year) to how many games the Brewers have remaining this year to come up with the August 5th date?

 

Based on your explanation, the 86 days would be relevant next year as that would be the year immediately preceding his potential super 2 status.

 

I'm not arguing with you or disagreeing with you, I'm just having trouble reconciling the date we would be eligible to call him up safely and avoid super 2 status with the 86 days you're referencing. I don't read that as meaning you have to add up his time from last year and this year and stay under the 86.

 

As best as I can understand it, if we called him up immediately following the ASG, we'd be safe from super 2 status. And you could even hold off a bit longer and call him up on the 22nd vs Cincy(as opposed to the 18th as we wouldn't need him to start until the 5th game after the break).

[FVBrewerFan]

One way to limit Nelson's innings is to use him in the Brewers pen. They need an effective RHP out of the pen badly. Maybe use Nelson in that role for 4-6 weeks or so, then stretch him out for the pennant chase?

 

I know it's not ideal, but it would be a way to get the most out of him, without blowing out his innings this year. Otherwise, I don't see a way around it short of just shutting him down for a month, and then bringing him up. That's not ideal either, of course.

[HiAndTight]

One way to limit Nelson's innings is to use him in the Brewers pen. They need an effective RHP out of the pen badly. Maybe use Nelson in that role for 4-6 weeks or so, then stretch him out for the pennant chase?

 

I know it's not ideal, but it would be a way to get the most out of him, without blowing out his innings this year. Otherwise, I don't see a way around it short of just shutting him down for a month, and then bringing him up. That's not ideal either, of course.

 

 

That would certainly limit his innings count, but he'd have be used extremely conservatively. If they did this, I wouldn't want him used as a traditional late inning reliever. I wouldn't want him to get up 2-3 days in a row, maybe not come into a game, just do something that his arm isn't used to doing and then have him go back to starting.

 

I'd rather just shut him down for a couple weeks, give him 2 starts, 5 inning starts, bring him up July 22nd.

 

Either way, you have to do something to limit how many innings he's throwing right now. As it stands right now he's heading towards 200+ IP if he's a reliable part of the big league rotation down the stretch.

[FVBrewerFan]

Right. Even more innings if he is one of the 3 you role with in the playoffs. And that's not impossible. No time for hurt feelings, who's "deserving", etc. You need to go with the 3 guys who are pitching the best, and that could very well be Nelson. Right now, if he gets called up and added to the Brewers rotation, he's on track for WAY over 200 innings.

[HiAndTight]

Right. Even more innings if he is one of the 3 you role with in the playoffs. And that's not impossible. No time for hurt feelings, who's "deserving", etc. You need to go with the 3 guys who are pitching the best, and that could very well be Nelson. Right now, if he gets called up and added to the Brewers rotation, he's on track for WAY over 200 innings.

 

 

I really see no reason why he couldn't come up and perform like Wacha did last year for the Cardinals.

 

Wacha pitched 85 innings in the minors, 90 in the big leagues...he was apparently up and down and the Cards did use him as a reliever, and then he threw 30.2 IP in the playoffs.

 

Of course Wacha had only thrown 20 professional innings before last season and was only 22 years old.

[torts]

Estrada with his league-tying 27th HR, now tied with Cruz and Abreu for MLB lead!

[HiAndTight]

Estrada with his league-tying 27th HR, now tied with Cruz and Abreu for MLB lead!

 

 

 

Yeah....really getting sick of Estrada. I'd rather be starting Fiers if you're that worried about Nelson and his super 2 status.

 

It's getting to the point where you look at the schedule and you have a pretty good idea they're going to lose when Estrada starts.

 

Since May 18th he has given up an OPS of .883 with an ERA of 6.61. with 16 HR's given up in 9 games.

[torts]

yup, I am with you, start either Feirs or Nelson next time up

[HiAndTight]

yup, I am with you, start either Feirs or Nelson next time up

 

 

Is it wrong that I consider it a positive that Howard didn't hit that one out and Estrada "only," gave up a RBI single(which should have been a double).

[The stache]

I, too, am done with captain four bagger. I am sick and tired of seeing his name on the schedule, and not wondering to myself if we're going to win his start, but how many home runs he's going to give up. Melvin and Roenicke need to move Estrada out of the rotation, and they need to dump Wang, and move another pitcher into the 25 man roster that can help this team.

[HiAndTight]

I, too, am done with captain four bagger. I am sick and tired of seeing his name on the schedule, and not wondering to myself if we're going to win his start, but how many home runs he's going to give up. Melvin and Roenicke need to move Estrada out of the rotation, and they need to dump Wang, and move another pitcher into the 25 man roster that can help this team.

 

 

 

You don't dump Wang. To steal Wang's analogy, you don't swim across the Atlantic and then decide it's not worth it once you see Ireland. No, put him on the DL. There's no MLB Gestapo that's going to come and fine and penalize the Brewers if they say that Wang has a sore shoulder from his side sessions.

 

DL Wang

DFA Estrada (I don't see a spot for him in the pen. The last thing you want is to bring in a guy who gives up so many HR's in the latter innings.

Henderson transfered to 60 day DL(and Thornburg if you so desire as he won't likely be back before 60 days anyway).

Callup Jeffress and Fiers now and sit Nelson down for a few weeks so you don't have him throw 220 innings as he becomes our ace down the stretch (that should be partially in blue).

 

But both Jeffress, Nelson and Fiers offer clear upgrades over what you've got right now in the big leagues. So why wait? I get rolling with Kintzler right now because he appears to be on the verge of righting the ship and we need him. But you don't make up a schedule to hand him the ball every 5th day.

 

 

 

I think Roenicke is a really good manager. I'm not sure if Melvin is good or really good. I don't know how much Attanasio has been involved in some of the signings. But I do know that neither seem to be proactive and they're usually pretty slow to react. Estrada just hasn't earned this type of loyalty. If Yo was struggling like this I would understand it, but it's not, it's Estrada.

[HiAndTight]

By the way, Oakland, best record in the big leagues.

 

Tommy Millone in his last 11 games for them had gone on average 6 1/3 IP, an ERA of 2.62, the team was 9-2 in his games.

 

But, they saw an opportunity to improve upon their rotation and they took it.

 

So both teams had soft tossing pitchers who are Nationals castoffs and one goes out and gives up an elite prospect to replace a guy that's actually having success so they can maintain their lead over the hard charging Angels, and the Brewers continue to trot out a guy who gives up HR's like foot kitchens give out soup.