At what point does Nelson replace Estrada?

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm on the opposite end of that spectrum. If you can skip your worst SP's turn in the rotation do so. Can we also make mention of the fact that Estrada doesn't have a season with I believe 160IP in a season? Seems to me if you're going to carry on with him, he is the most needed SP to have turns missed in the rotation due to what likely is a 160-70IP limit on him. Meanwhile, your better SPs keep on a 5day schedule of pitching. The AS break is 3 weeks away, Lohse,Gallardo,Peralta, and Garza can have their extra days of rest then.

Based on the days off and current rotation lineup you skip Estrada's July 1st start and in keeping with the rotation, July 3rd's off day would then give Garza a skip in the rotation(another IP concern) You then finish the last game before the AS break with Garza and can reshuffle the rotation to begin July 18th.

[HiAndTight]

at this point in the season, I think it benefits the other 4 in the rotation if everyone gets an extra day, and the off days coming up set up perfectly to do so. Just because #5's been struggling shouldn't mean that you don't give the other 4 starters a break here and there to try keeping them healthy, too.

 

 

Yeah, as long as they don't throw everyone out there for 115 pitches because they'll have an extra day off.

 

I'd be good with putting everyone on the DL starting now and using Nelson from here on out. I believe that could keep all of them fresh for Sept and beyond. Or put Nelson on the 15 day to keep his inning down and do so when super 2 is no longer a concern.

 

I'm starting to feel better about a Pertala/Lohse/Gallardo/Garza playoff rotation with the HOPE that Nelson can have that great stretch like Wacha did to force his way in there at the end of the year.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm on the opposite end of that spectrum. If you can skip your worst SP's turn in the rotation do so. Can we also make mention of the fact that Estrada doesn't have a season with I believe 160IP in a season? Seems to me if you're going to carry on with him, he is the most needed SP to have turns missed in the rotation due to what likely is a 160-70IP limit on him. Meanwhile, your better SPs keep on a 5day schedule of pitching. The AS break is 3 weeks away, Lohse,Gallardo,Peralta, and Garza can have their extra days of rest then.

Based on the days off and current rotation lineup you skip Estrada's July 1st start and in keeping with the rotation, July 3rd's off day would then give Garza a skip in the rotation(another IP concern) You then finish the last game before the AS break with Garza and can reshuffle the rotation to begin July 18th.

 

I don't think there's anyone in this rotation that can't use the extra day at this point in the season. We often see Lohse have a start following one of his good ones where he's not as sharp and he fights his way through. An extra day in there occasionally might solve that. Not that he can't win when he's not at his best, but when he is, he can beat just about anyone. When Peralta's fresh, he can be dominating. As for Gallardo, after he short stint on the DL last year, he was revived and pitched very well. As for Estrada, his place in the rotation is shaky at best. Nelson's turn isn't quite lined up with his right now, but a couple off days could solve that. Maybe you end up with Nelson skipping one start to preserve his innings a bit.

[phnxcrew]

here we go again! One start against a power lacking nationals shouldn't weigh heavily on any one's mind

[torts]

Bautista back after a week, Estrada's one off of the 2nd deck.

[HiAndTight]

I'm on the opposite end of that spectrum. If you can skip your worst SP's turn in the rotation do so. Can we also make mention of the fact that Estrada doesn't have a season with I believe 160IP in a season? Seems to me if you're going to carry on with him, he is the most needed SP to have turns missed in the rotation due to what likely is a 160-70IP limit on him. Meanwhile, your better SPs keep on a 5day schedule of pitching. The AS break is 3 weeks away, Lohse,Gallardo,Peralta, and Garza can have their extra days of rest then.

Based on the days off and current rotation lineup you skip Estrada's July 1st start and in keeping with the rotation, July 3rd's off day would then give Garza a skip in the rotation(another IP concern) You then finish the last game before the AS break with Garza and can reshuffle the rotation to begin July 18th.

 

I really doubt the Brewers are going to impose any type of limit on a guy like Estrada. At least not for health concerns. I don't think teams are all that concerned with 31 year old journeymen type pitchers.

[torts]

Colby Rasmus Estrada'd one, too.

[ewitkows]

At least he's not walking people

[razzzorsharp]

Decent start, kept them in the game.

[Thurston Fluff]

I couldn't care less if the 2 runs came from 2 homeruns or a couple bunt singles. It was a solid outing against a very good offense.

[fondybrewfan]

He always seems to do this. He always does just enough to stay in the rotation by throwing a good start or two out there. Then he will have 2 or 3 terrible starts but RR and DM will be hesitant to demote him and they will keep giving him chances. Meanwhile Nelson and his sub 2.00 ERA with a ton of strike outs and minimal HR's is rotting away in AAA.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's becoming apparent to me that the combo of Kintzler and Wooten is lacking. That may well be the impetus for getting Nelson up so that Estrada can be used out of the pen. Gorzelanny and Estrada might be better in high leverage situations than either Kintzler or Wooten.

[torts]

pretty sure someone else covered this, but I cannot imagine they'll replace Estrada with Nelson before his super 2 cutoff date in mid/late July. so we are looking at potentially 2 more Estrada starts (7/7 and 7/12) before the All-Star break, and then his next scheduled start could be pushed all the way until July 23rd if they start the day after the break with the top of the rotation order.

[gregmag]

It's becoming apparent to me that the combo of Kintzler and Wooten is lacking. That may well be the impetus for getting Nelson up so that Estrada can be used out of the pen. Gorzelanny and Estrada might be better in high leverage situations than either Kintzler or Wooten.

Do you think Estrada would be able to control his homertastic tendencies out of the pen? That's not a rhetorical question; I don't know the answer. It does seem important.

[monty57]

It's becoming apparent to me that the combo of Kintzler and Wooten is lacking. That may well be the impetus for getting Nelson up so that Estrada can be used out of the pen. Gorzelanny and Estrada might be better in high leverage situations than either Kintzler or Wooten.

 

Nah, they'd just put Nelson in the pen to "get his feet wet at the MLB level in low leverage situations."

[Thurston Fluff]

Meanwhile Nelson and his sub 2.00 ERA with a ton of strike outs and minimal HR's is rotting away in AAA.

 

Working to become a better pitcher is hardly rotting away. If he is needed he will be there whole and unrotten.

[trwi7]

Meanwhile Nelson and his sub 2.00 ERA with a ton of strike outs and minimal HR's is rotting away in AAA.

 

Working to become a better pitcher is hardly rotting away. If he is needed he will be there whole and unrotten.

 

There is a point where there's nothing else a player can work on in the minors and Nelson is pretty close to that point.

[torts]

Estrada is tied for the MLB lead in HR's this season with 26, tied with 3 others. oh wait, those 3 are all batters

 

in the minors Nelson has given up a career 26 home runs... over 5 SEASONS.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's becoming apparent to me that the combo of Kintzler and Wooten is lacking. That may well be the impetus for getting Nelson up so that Estrada can be used out of the pen. Gorzelanny and Estrada might be better in high leverage situations than either Kintzler or Wooten.

Do you think Estrada would be able to control his homertastic tendencies out of the pen? That's not a rhetorical question; I don't know the answer. It does seem important.

 

Obviously, anywhere you put Estrada, he's liable to surrender a HR at any time. Maybe he'd bear down and be able to spot his pitches better in short relief. But the main point is, they need to make room for Nelson to start and they have issues in their pen which won't go away. There are two ways to minimize the relief problems. One is better starting pitching allowing team to build bigger leads and starter to go longer. The other is personnel changes in the pen. Doing nothing is problematic. What's a better 7th inning combo, Gorzelanny or Duke and Estrada or Wooten and Kintzler?

[fondybrewfan]

Personally I think they need to bring up Jeffress yesterday; demote either Kintzler or Wooten. Maybe Jeffress flames out again but he has got better stuff then both of those guys. Kintzler is really struggling right now.

[JohnBriggs12]

pretty sure someone else covered this, but I cannot imagine they'll replace Estrada with Nelson before his super 2 cutoff date in mid/late July. so we are looking at potentially 2 more Estrada starts (7/7 and 7/12) before the All-Star break, and then his next scheduled start could be pushed all the way until July 23rd if they start the day after the break with the top of the rotation order.

 

How are you figuring mid to late July for the cutoff date. Nelson spent 29 days in the majors last year and what 3 days this year? Isn't the typical cutoff date around June 1 for a player with no prior time in the big leagues? I would think he could be brought up to make his next start on the 7th, and be beyond the cutoff date. What am I missing?

[torts]

late July was a guesstimate, but going off of what designates Super-2 status:

 

"a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% in total service in the two-to-three class"

 

he's already got 30 days of service time to date (29 last year and 1 this year so far, right?), there are 73 days (games + days off) of service remaining after the All-Star game. if 86 is the "magic number" to get below they would have to wait until the August 5th home stand against the Giants to ensure missing that extra year of arbitration. If I am mistaken on this let me know, its confusing, but that is my understanding.

[TheCrew07]

How are you figuring mid to late July for the cutoff date. Nelson spent 29 days in the majors last year and what 3 days this year? Isn't the typical cutoff date around June 1 for a player with no prior time in the big leagues? I would think he could be brought up to make his next start on the 7th, and be beyond the cutoff date. What am I missing?

 

As has been posted repeatedly, the old percentage was 17% and it wasn't a June 1 date, the date moved from year to year. With the new percentage at 22% and Nelson already having service time his date is most likely pushed back to mid July.

 

If he didn't have service time he could have been called up in the recent rash around baseball with prospects like Mookie Betts.

 

edit. That percentage is service time among all players in the 2-3 year service window so the more players that are called up sooner, the quicker the date comes and vice versa. That's why the date isn't set, it's more of an educated guess based on what other teams have done/are doing with their prospects. Braun would have likely been pretty close to a super 2 if the Brewers didn't ink him to that original extension right away.

[Roderick]

Personally I think they need to bring up Jeffress yesterday; demote either Kintzler or Wooten. Maybe Jeffress flames out again but he has got better stuff then both of those guys. Kintzler is really struggling right now.

 

They would have to clear a spot on the 40 man for Jeffress. I'm not sure if there is a pay or service time issue with putting Hellweg and/or Hall on the 60 day DL, there seems to be some disagreement on the other thread, regardless the Brewers seem reluctant to do it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I imagine Pittsburgh felt secure in bringing up Polanco on the 10th of June. After today then Polanco would be at 24 days and counting to Nelson's 30.

 

Brewers have TBA listed in the probables for Monday against Phillies. Now lets assume they start Peralta on his normal rest that day, and bring up Nelson to start on Tuesday, July 8? Through the 7th, Polanco would be up to 28 days and Nelson would be just 2 ahead. Nelson could make two pre All Star starts on Tuesday the 8th and Sunday the 13th, then be optioned back for 10 days, returning on July 23rd.

 

As for Jeffress, if Henderson's not close, they could put him on the 60 day.