At what point does Nelson replace Estrada?

[FVBrewerFan]

Does the marginal difference in production really matter in terms of our 5th starter?

 

It doesn't matter if you're the Cubs. Or winning the division by a landslide. But this race looks like it will go down to the wire. If Fiers gets you 3 more wins than Estrada, it makes a huge difference. With Nelson it may make an even bigger difference.

[Getumthisyear]

I'm pretty sure he means the Brewers have no reason to risk bringing Nelson up until there sure he's past Super 2 . (and they shouldn't) It's not like they have no other options. Estrada is what he is. He's an acceptable back end of the rotation arm. It doesn't make any sense to me to make any change till after the break. Nelson's coming that's for sure. The only question is he part of the rotation or in the pen. It's not like Estrada goes out there and just gets hammered. He hasn't pitch well of late, but he still misses bats. I can't believe how many people want this guy gone? Rotation has been a strength this year.

[adambr2]

Braun was brought up in late May in 2007 and ended up missing the Super 2 cutoff. Unless the language in the CBA has changed since then, you'd think that late June would be safe for Nelson.

[TooLiveBrew]

What complicates it is that Jimmy already has 27 days of service time. The Brewers likely need to wait until mid-July to be safe on the Super Two concern.

[logan82]

What complicates it is that Jimmy already has 27 days of service time. The Brewers likely need to wait until mid-July to be safe on the Super Two concern.

TheCrew07 also pointed out that the CBA did change.

[Fear The Chorizo]

How many innings has Jimmy Nelson pitched so far this season, and what is the likely innings limit the Brewers would want to have for him? Wondering if he'll be at or above the desired total by the end of August, leaving the Brewers with more tough rotation decisions.

 

If Estrada can be optioned to AAA, I'd like to see Nelson called up to get an extended look - even if he pitches well if he reaches his innings limit in late August/early September, Estrada could be recalled to take a few September starts.

 

What's the status on Thornburg and his DL stint? Is there any chance the Brewers decide to get him stretched out for the rotation during the season's 2nd half while he's rehabbing?

 

for a change it's nice to have options that are performance-based, and not forced by injury and lack of depth.

[ewitkows]

So today excuse will be he settled down after the first 2 innings. even though he gave up 6 runs

[nate82]

So today excuse will be he settled down after the first 2 innings. even though he gave up 6 runs

 

It was at Coors so only giving up 6 runs is not all that bad. He still will be in the rotation and he has until at least the all star break to snap out of the funk he is in. If not it will be Nelson then and not any time sooner.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Just noticed the next off day lines up with a Marco start, followed by an off day after a 2 game series. Might make sense for Marco to skip a start after his next one.

[Polish Falcons]

Hello, I really don't get the super 2 thing, and I feel like a lot of posters in the thread are ignoring the relevance of that.

 

Could anyone please provide a basic description of what it means to have super 2 status, and how one might becomes eligible, and subsequently ineligible? And then if you really want to tie the loop then how does it relate to Jimmy Nelson and what needs to happen for him to no longer be eligible for that?

[guylanderfridancies]

Super Two

 

Normally, players must have accrued at least three years of MLB service time before they can be eligible for salary arbitration — or in other words, until they can negotiate their salary and not have it automatically set by their club. But certain players with less than three years of service time can also become eligible for arbitration, if they meet the following criteria:

 

● If they have less than three years of service time, but more than two.

 

● If they rank within the top 22% of all 2-year players in terms of service time.

 

So if a player finishes a season and is just shy of three years of service time (say, 2 years and 171 days) then MLB will award them Super Two status and they’ll be eligible for arbitration. Since these players are still under team control for another three seasons, that means Super Two players get four year of salary arbitration instead of the typical three.

 

The Super Two cutoff used to stand at 17%, but got changed to 22% in the new CBA negotiations. This means that if a team (BREWERS) wants to keep a player (JIMMY) in the minors until after the Super Two cutoff, they will have to keep that player in the minors for even longer than before. Considering that the cutoff used to fall sometime in June — it varied from year to year, as the 17% cutoff isn’t tied to a specific date — it will likely end up being in July going forward.

 

 

BOOO! PAY JIMMY! He's good ol' home grown grass fed farm boy. They'll pay Matt Garza out the wahoo but skimp Jimmy, LIFES NOT FAIR! lol

[lcbj68c]

I will be watching Jimmy Nelson here at home in Salt Lake tomorrow night (6/21). I'll be sure to hollar to him that it's his final game as a Sound!

[SoupTown]

The dollars for giving the guy 4 years of arbie instead of 3 is that, if he is good, each year his salary is a couple mill higher. So over four years you have paid an extra 8 mill. So, any starts that Nelson makes for the Crew before late July cost $8 mill all up.

 

I guess early July would be OK, but for the 27 days already Jimmy has of service time. So, we surely will not see Jimmy until late July.

 

Now, that said, I agree with the other poster who mentioned the 2014 work load concern. We may call up Nelson, only to know in one month he has hit his limit. So, I would like Nelson's pitch count / innings lessened at AAA. It sounds cruel, but maybe he needs to be on a 5 inn, 80 pitch limit for a few starts. Just so he can see out the year strong in Milwaukee.

[Bombers]

How many innings has Jimmy Nelson pitched so far this season, and what is the likely innings limit the Brewers would want to have for him? Wondering if he'll be at or above the desired total by the end of August, leaving the Brewers with more tough rotation decisions.

 

If Estrada can be optioned to AAA, I'd like to see Nelson called up to get an extended look - even if he pitches well if he reaches his innings limit in late August/early September, Estrada could be recalled to take a few September starts.

 

What's the status on Thornburg and his DL stint? Is there any chance the Brewers decide to get him stretched out for the rotation during the season's 2nd half while he's rehabbing?

 

for a change it's nice to have options that are performance-based, and not forced by injury and lack of depth.

2012 = 127.1

2013 = 152 minor league innings. Plus 10 in MLB. Total = 162. (27.5% increase from 2012.)

He has pitched 83.1 in the minors this year + 5.2 in MLB. Total so far is 89 innings. If they stick to the same 27% increase he will have 206 innings allowed this year.

 

My opinion on Thornburg is he will not see starting time this year. Maybe next year in Spring.

[homer]

27.5% increase over 152 innings would be around 194 innings....wouldn't it?

[Polish Falcons]

Thanks for the explanation. What a silly rule.

[Bombers]

27.5% increase over 152 innings would be around 194 innings....wouldn't it?

I could be wrong in my math (sorry if so) here is how I got 206:

162 total innings in 2013.

162 x 1.275 = 206

For the %, I took 162 - 127 (2012 total innings) = 35 (so a 35 inning increase)

35/127 = .275

[trwi7]

27.5% increase over 152 innings would be around 194 innings....wouldn't it?

 

It would but you didn't add the 10 major league innings bringing the total to 162, a 27.5% increase from 162 would be 206.

[homer]

27.5% increase over 152 innings would be around 194 innings....wouldn't it?

 

It would but you didn't add the 10 major league innings bringing the total to 162, a 27.5% increase from 162 would be 206.

 

 

Oh, yeah. Guess I missed that in the original post.

[SoupTown]

Is not the inning increase you want to stick to 25 innings. So he would seem to be limited to 190ish this year.

[logan82]

I think they prefer to jump up innings in the 20-30 per year range not a percentage. So the 190ish is probably right.

[Outlander]

I can't see Nelson coming up before the All Star break. After Estrada starts Wednesday the Brewers can and should probably skip Estrada's next two starts with off days on the 30th and July 3rd. That would allow Lohse, Gallardo, Garza and Peralta to start on regular rest.

[SoupTown]

RR likes to keep the five. And Have off days give everybody the extra day. So I expect he will do that this time as well

[Roderick]

RR likes to keep the five. And Have off days give everybody the extra day. So I expect he will do that this time as well

 

Yeah, but we have two off days in one week. So they could skip Estrada on the 30th and everyone would have an extra day of rest starting with Garza on the 4th. Otherwise Lohse is pitching on July 4th after starting on June 27.

 

I'm not sure how much a concern innings would be for Nelson, if it is a concern, would it be better to just have him skip a start now in lieu of reducing his pitch count in preparation for him to come up in 3-4 weeks.

[Fear The Chorizo]

at this point in the season, I think it benefits the other 4 in the rotation if everyone gets an extra day, and the off days coming up set up perfectly to do so. Just because #5's been struggling shouldn't mean that you don't give the other 4 starters a break here and there to try keeping them healthy, too.