At what point does Nelson replace Estrada?

[Bombers]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=wIF4P

 

@AdamMcCalvy: Expanding on @joe_block's Tweet, here are highest HR rates in #Brewers history. Estrada entered 2nd inning at 2.48 http://t.co/DwbgkK69ym

[Funketown]

No logged in, but over MLB history, worst rates for single season with >80 ip:

 

2.66

2.55

2.52

2.46 (Estrada)

2.41

 

Not sure who 1,2,3,5 are but if those guys played in the McGwire Bonds years, Marco's mark is even more impressive.

[burnzy24]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=wIF4P

 

@AdamMcCalvy: Expanding on @joe_block's Tweet, here are highest HR rates in #Brewers history. Estrada entered 2nd inning at 2.48 http://t.co/DwbgkK69ym

 

I don't think anyone on this board would be able to guess who is at the bottom of that list.

[torts]

next starts in colorado, I think fiers gets that start since he's already up here

[JohnBriggs12]

Roenicke needs to take his blinders off. If Estrada needs to work on things, it should be out of the pen in low leverage situations, not starting every 5 days.

[Roderick]

next starts in colorado, I think fiers gets that start since he's already up here

 

Fiers was giving up some deep warning track shots yesterday too, which would be fun to see in Colorado.

 

With the "extra" guy in the pen, treat Fiers as a starter now and prep him for the 20th. I think I would plan on pitching Marco one more, but skipping his next start. And then the next rotation use all six men and then Estrada is bullpen fulltime. I think everyone would benefit from an extra day off. And it would allow two starts by Fiers to get us to July 2 before you start Nelson.

[JohnBriggs12]

Estrada's confidence is shot. You can see each HR is affecting him by his reaction. It's doing him no good keeping him in the rotation and obviously it's doing the team no good either. He's had enough chances. He's always been a "fine line" type guy. If they have to wait on Nelson for reasons of not starting his arby clock a year too early, fine, go with Fiers or even Gorzelanny for a start.

[torts]

Haudricourt notes on Twitter 35 of the 45 earned runs allowed this year by Estrada, a non-tender candidate entering his second arbitration year this winter, have come on home runs.

 

*gif of head exploding*

[RobDeer 45]

Was really surprised by the article on the Brewers website stating that Estrada's time is up. Usually don't see stuff like that on there. Time to make a change.

[lcbj68c]

Listened briefly to the game yesterday around the 3rd inning and thought I heard Joe Block essentially giving him a "pass" because most of them have been solo home runs?

 

Solo home runs aren't a problem because only 1 man scores??!?!? Good Grief. Under that premise, it's great for my teenage daughter to "have relations" underage, so long as it's with a different boy every weeekend and not 4 at once!

 

Jimmy Nelson seems to be a better option from this point, going forward.

[yoshii8]

Now is the perfect time to make the change. So I expect at least 2 or 3 more starts for him.

[reillymcshane]

I wouldn't have a problem if they simply optioned him to AAA. Tell the guy we know he's better than he's been pitching. Use AAA to figure things out. If this team was bad, it might be one thing to let him work out the issues in the big leagues. But we're in first place. His pitching is hurting the team, and we have some options to fill in for him in Fiers and Nelson.

 

That said, like Yoshii8 predicts, I expect Marco to get several more starts. I expect he'll get to the all-star break before he gets taken out of the rotation.

[reillymcshane]

I see Marco's fWAR is at -0.9

 

Ouch.

[EnglishCream]

next starts in colorado, I think fiers gets that start since he's already up here

 

Fiers got rocked in Colorado two years ago. That was the beginning of the slide. I remember because I was at that game. Might not be the best spot for him, but would it be any worse than Estrada?

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

as much as i like estrada, it's time for him to go. the brewers have gotten the most they can out of him. he gave this team a couple of very good seasons. move him to the pen and call up nelson. you fix two things at once this way. estrada can go back to being the long man in the pen and wang can disappear. i'd look into making a trade for a reliever or two. some of the guys look tired already.

[RockCoCougars]

I doubt if we will see Nelson for at least another month. Estrada has been horrible for the past month, but I don't think that Fiers would be much better.

[nate82]

Nelson is not an option until after the All Star Break so the Brewers are stuck with Estrada or Fiers both are the same pitcher and I would rather just stick with Estrada over Fiers.

[Bombers]

next starts in colorado, I think fiers gets that start since he's already up here

 

Fiers got rocked in Colorado two years ago. That was the beginning of the slide. I remember because I was at that game. Might not be the best spot for him, but would it be any worse than Estrada?

And it will probably be the nail in the coffin for Estrada. How many home runs will he give up 1, 2, 3, 4, 5? The way baseball goes, it will probably be 0.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't want Estrada in the pen. Being a HR machine as a strater is one thing, but out of the pen is even worse. And you can't just hide him there and use him only for long relief. They're already using Wang for that, and SHOULD be using Kintzler in that role right about now. Only so many guys you can hide, someone has to actually...you know... pitch.

 

Send him to Nashville and keep him in the rotation there. It's still a long season, and chances are he'll be back at some point. Either way, there are better option than him for both the rotation and the bullpen.

[CheezWizHed]

Estrada doesn't have a future as a SP with the Brewers. Fiers might not be any better, but could be MUCH better. But at least you can get a sense of what his future by giving him a few starts. Why not let Fiers have a couple starts? Fiers has pitched every bit as good as Nelson at AAA this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's simple, Estrada's last start will be at Colorado. There's no way you make the change to Nelson just to have him pitch in Coors Field where he'll likely go 3IP and give up 7Runs. At least Marco will go 4IP and give up 9Runs before Fiers comes in to pitch 2IP while giving up 4Runs and lastly Wang goes 2IP giving up 8Runs.

 

Then it will be obvious Nelson is the man for the job. and Estrada and Fiers both get sent to AAA or DFA'd.

 

That's my prediction. I'm an Estrada fan but he's not right. Just send him to AAA(Can he be sent?) I'm sure he'll find a groove again. Maybe a string down there of 4 or 5 starts where he goes 6-7ip each and gives up just 2-3HRs total while striking out 9+ per 9 will entice that SD/Philly trade I mentioned in Rumors to get through the season.

[gregmag]

I'm curious why people are so down on Fiers. All the guy has done this year is pitch great at AAA and then get called up to the majors, where he's barely pitched so far. I understand that he melted down last year, but his overall track record in the majors and minors has a lot more good than bad in it.

 

I'm not saying he's better than Nelson; I'm with everybody else who wants to see Jimmy in the rotation. But I think Fiers would be a better bet in the rotation right now than Estrada, and I think he has value going forward.

[JohnBriggs12]

Estrada will be entering his final arbitration year next year. The likelihood he is tendered a contract by the Brewers this winter diminishes with every ball flying out of the park. Point is once you make the move and remove him from the rotation, what's the point in keeping him if you have alternatives in the pen? That could be why he's getting a long leash, because there's going to be no turning back. I think they need to get Nelson here in time to make 5 or 6 starts before the deadline, so if he does fail, they can pick someone up as a rental.

[TheCrew07]

I'm curious why people are so down on Fiers.

 

I'll say the same thing I've always said about Estrada. It's not about being down on a guy, it's about being realistic given his pros and cons. Neither Estrada or Fiers are players a team should look to build around.

 

Fiers doesn't throw especially hard, doesn't have a plus pitch, and is already 29 years old. He relies almost entirely on location be successful, though admittedly his plus command has gotten him to this point. He is however replaceable, in the same way that Estrada has always been replaceable. He's not someone you build around, he's someone who's "good enough" until someone better comes along. Fiers is a big league pitcher, but he doesn't have to be a starter to provide value if there is someone better.

 

Nelson isn't going anywhere until he's past super 2 status, the percentage of which is now 22% or 23% (I forget and I'm too lazy to go look). The old number was 17% which put the date at the end of June, he's down in the minors for at least 4 more weeks.

 

I don't really care who pitches until Nelson comes up, all of the options are very similar to me.

 

edit.

I think they need to get Nelson here in time to make 5 or 6 starts before the deadline, so if he does fail, they can pick someone up as a rental.

 

Right... because the Brewers have the prospect power to go and get a meaningful rental. Does the marginal difference in production really matter in terms of our 5th starter? The issue with the rotation isn't who's the 5th pitcher, the issue is with the top and always has been.

[gregmag]

I'm curious why people are so down on Fiers.

 

I'll say the same thing I've always said about Estrada. It's not about being down on a guy, it's about being realistic given his pros and cons. Neither Estrada or Fiers are players a team should look to build around.

 

Fiers doesn't throw especially hard, doesn't have a plus pitch, and is already 29 years old. He relies almost entirely on location be successful, though admittedly his plus command has gotten him to this point. He is however replaceable, in the same way that Estrada has always been replaceable. He's not someone you build around, he's someone who's "good enough" until someone better comes along. Fiers is a big league pitcher, but he doesn't have to be a starter to provide value if there is someone better.

 

Nelson isn't going anywhere until he's past super 2 status, the percentage of which is now 22% or 23% (I forget and I'm too lazy to go look). The old number was 17% which put the date at the end of June, he's down in the minors for at least 4 more weeks.

 

I don't really care who pitches until Nelson comes up, all of the options are very similar to me.

 

I didn't suggest Feirs was someone you build around. I said he was a better option than Estrada and a guy who has value. I think I'm close to where you are on him, maybe a bit more optimistic, but I'm not arguing he's a world beater. The poster above had suggested he was a dump/DFA candidate, and someone else suggested he was interchangeable as a starting option with Gorzellany. Those were the comments that got me wondering.

 

Estrada has been in full meltdown mode, and I'm reasonably confident that Fiers could do substantially better than Marco right now. Even if you think Fiers is only replacement level, that's a lot better than the Estrada we're trotting out right now. It's a marginal improvement, sure, but we're in a pennant race. If there's a decent chance that Fiers keeps us in one game Estrada would cough up, which I think there is, we should replace Estrada with Fiers until we're ready for Nelson.