At what point does Nelson replace Estrada?

[logan82]

Wouldn't the 'Crew be clear of super-2 shortly? Seems to be mid-June most years.

 

It would also be ok if Estrada came downs with Lymes or pink eye and it took 60 days to recover.

Nelson currently has 27 days of service time. Not sure if that includes this year. He was up for a bit last year.

[torts]

send Fiers to AAA, move Estrada to the Pen and put Nelson in the rotation, problem solved (for now until Thorny/Gorzy/Hendy are healthy)

[TheCrew07]

I forgot the super 2 % bumped up to 22% with the latest CBA... to clear super 2 status he'd have to be down almost all of July with his 27 days of service time. I was still thinking the old % was in effect which was a mid June date.

[HiAndTight]

i'd feel better about cutting estrada with a healthy hiram burgos, johnny hellweg, tom gorzelanny and jim henderson, and an effective wei-chung wang, ariel pena, michael blazek and alfredo figaro. the brewers' pitching depth that was talked about in spring training is nearly non-existent now.

 

 

I think just the opposite is true. Burgos, Hellweg, Wang, Pena and Figaro were never really guys who were talked about as being impact pitchers on this team.

 

Gorzelanny's injury is offset by how effective Duke has been. Henderson's injury has hurt, but K-Rod stepped in and has been extremely productive.

 

And we didn't know how good Nelson and Fiers were going to be. We were hopeful. There are also guys in AAA who are pitching very well and are good options beyond those two. Mills, Jeffress has pitched well in Nashville, Leon is down there and has a great arm. Not to mention a couple of arms in AA who if we really got down to it could help.

 

Our depth still looks pretty good even if you take Estrada out of the equation.

[Thurston Fluff]

Just a variation on the standard "prospects fail" argument... fear of the unknown.

 

Yes, saying a rookie is bound to have some struggles in his first year in the bigs is the exact as saying prospects fail. Please.

 

The Brewers won't find themselves in this position very often. The postseason is there to be had.

 

Which is exactly why I am more comfortable with Estrada doing what he has done in the past than thinking a rookie is going to be better over the rest of the season. Even though I think that rookie is going to be far superior in a fairly short period of time, that time is not now.

Nelson isn't going to suddenly lose 5-6 miles and sink on his fastball and leave straight pitches over the middle of the plate. He's their number one prospect for a reason, and he's had plenty of innings in the minor leagues. He's not going to dominate major league hitters like he is the guys in AAA but he's going to give them a good chance to win when he's on.

 

Who said anything about losing velocity or anything of the sort? I'm talking about a young pitcher who has a total of 26 starts in AAA maybe having something to learn at that level yet and maybe, just maybe, not being a better option over the course of this season than someone who has already done it. Granted I also tend to think people are getting carried away with Estrada's bad start. I guess I just look at how last season began and ended with him and don't see a need to panic.

I'm really excited about Nelson and think he has a bright future. He is a top prospect 100 for a reason. But lets be a little realistic here. According to BA he is a slightly lower prospect than Odorizzi. Why should anyone think Nelson won't have the same type of struggles somewhere along the line as Odorizzi is now? BTW guess who had more than 26 AAA starts and more major league exposure and is still having his share of problems working his way out of a slump.

I'm sure both will be fine over the course of their careers. But when did Nelson suddenly become the next can't miss, will never struggle, phenom in baseball? All I'm saying is maybe it's time to take a step back realize he is still a young pitcher that most likely will struggle at times in his first year up. Why do that now when we have someone who is as, or more likely to put it together in a shorter period of time than Nelson will when he does struggle?

[djoctagone]

There are also guys in AAA who are pitching very well and are good options beyond those two. Mills, Jeffress has pitched well in Nashville, Leon is down there and has a great arm.

none of those are on the 40-man (which is full at the moment). i was referring to lack of healthy, quality pitching depth on the 40-man beyond fiers and nelson.

[guylanderfridancies]

I don't know why we're even teasing the idea still, when most people have already discussed it and still some of you want to debate nonsense not related to the topic title. Nelson is signed till 2020, he got a contract re-worked when the crew knew he was ready. The only thing that matters at this point is Super 2 status. The numbers are a joke. Yea sure, small sample size for Nelson, whatever, there's no argument against his game right now, unless you're the one having to pay for him. So why blow tens of millions more when he's not going any where any way. Patience saves money, doesn't always help the team win which could bring money, but winnings not a guarantee. I say close the thread...Soon as Super 2 status is dealt with he's in the Bigs for good, watch.

[jerichoholicninja]

I have no problem with Nelson getting a shot in the rotation. I just don't know how you justify taking anyone out of the rotation at this point. No pitcher has been terrible, no one is injured, and Nelson hasn't really done anything to "beat" anyone else for a rotation spot. If this was Spring Training or the off-season, sure you make the change based on potential. But when your rotation is actually having success, I don't know how you can justify making the switch.

[phnxcrew]

I have no problem with Nelson getting a shot in the rotation. I just don't know how you justify taking anyone out of the rotation at this point. No pitcher has been terrible, no one is injured, and Nelson hasn't really done anything to "beat" anyone else for a rotation spot. If this was Spring Training or the off-season, sure you make the change based on potential. But when your rotation is actually having success, I don't know how you can justify making the switch.

 

A 4.56 era isn't what I would call having success. Lately marco has been what most would call terrible. The book seems to be out on marco. Don't swing at the changeup, wait for the meatball, and drive it.

[phnxcrew]

At this point I think one or two more starts is all marco will get to correct his issues. We can't afford to spot teams two homeruns every five days.

[ewitkows]

I have no problem with Nelson getting a shot in the rotation. I just don't know how you justify taking anyone out of the rotation at this point. No pitcher has been terrible, no one is injured, and Nelson hasn't really done anything to "beat" anyone else for a rotation spot. If this was Spring Training or the off-season, sure you make the change based on potential. But when your rotation is actually having success, I don't know how you can justify making the switch.

 

 

last 30 days for Marco 35 innings 5.4 era and a 1.4 whip not so good

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't know why we're even teasing the idea still, when most people have already discussed it and still some of you want to debate nonsense not related to the topic title. Nelson is signed till 2020, he got a contract re-worked when the crew knew he was ready. The only thing that matters at this point is Super 2 status. The numbers are a joke. Yea sure, small sample size for Nelson, whatever, there's no argument against his game right now, unless you're the one having to pay for him. So why blow tens of millions more when he's not going any where any way. Patience saves money, doesn't always help the team win which could bring money, but winnings not a guarantee. I say close the thread...Soon as Super 2 status is dealt with he's in the Bigs for good, watch.

He didn't get his contract re-worked, he'll be going through the same salary control & arbitration process that every MLB player goes through.

[brewmann04]

Does Nelson give the Brewers a better shot to win? If yes then make the move.

[Thurston Fluff]

I have no problem with Nelson getting a shot in the rotation. I just don't know how you justify taking anyone out of the rotation at this point. No pitcher has been terrible, no one is injured, and Nelson hasn't really done anything to "beat" anyone else for a rotation spot. If this was Spring Training or the off-season, sure you make the change based on potential. But when your rotation is actually having success, I don't know how you can justify making the switch.

 

A 4.56 era isn't what I would call having success. Lately marco has been what most would call terrible. The book seems to be out on marco. Don't swing at the changeup, wait for the meatball, and drive it.

 

It took the league 4 years to figure him out? Did they figure him out the first part of last season and then lose the book on him? Isn't it more likely he is just going through a rough patch and will end up being who he always was?

[phnxcrew]

I have no problem with Nelson getting a shot in the rotation. I just don't know how you justify taking anyone out of the rotation at this point. No pitcher has been terrible, no one is injured, and Nelson hasn't really done anything to "beat" anyone else for a rotation spot. If this was Spring Training or the off-season, sure you make the change based on potential. But when your rotation is actually having success, I don't know how you can justify making the switch.

 

A 4.56 era isn't what I would call having success. Lately marco has been what most would call terrible. The book seems to be out on marco. Don't swing at the changeup, wait for the meatball, and drive it.

 

It took the league 4 years to figure him out? Did they figure him out the first part of last season and then lose the book on him? Isn't it more likely he is just going through a rough patch and will end up being who he always was?

 

Yes, it is likely he will end up around the career 4.24 era. This is the only season he had been given a slot in the starting rotation for sure and was not injured for part of it. The league has obviously done more research and/ or he is declining. Whatever it is the simple truth is his ceiling is a #5 pitcher. Nelson's is clearly much higher. No reason to stay with estrada at this point

[guylanderfridancies]

He didn't get his contract re-worked, he'll be going through the same salary control & arbitration process that every MLB player goes through.

 

I know, I'm talking about his initial rookie contract from when we drafted him, that got extended.

[HiAndTight]

There are also guys in AAA who are pitching very well and are good options beyond those two. Mills, Jeffress has pitched well in Nashville, Leon is down there and has a great arm.

none of those are on the 40-man (which is full at the moment). i was referring to lack of healthy, quality pitching depth on the 40-man beyond fiers and nelson.

 

 

It wouldn't be that hard to find space on the 40 man. Hellweg to the 60 day DL(if he isn't already).

Gorz to the 60 day DL would also be an easy fix if they're not comfortable bringing him back right now.

Then you have several other guys who could be moved for the right guys.

[HiAndTight]

Who said anything about losing velocity or anything of the sort? I'm talking about a young pitcher who has a total of 26 starts in AAA maybe having something to learn at that level yet and maybe, just maybe, not being a better option over the course of this season than someone who has already done it. Granted I also tend to think people are getting carried away with Estrada's bad start. I guess I just look at how last season began and ended with him and don't see a need to panic.

I'm really excited about Nelson and think he has a bright future. He is a top prospect 100 for a reason. But lets be a little realistic here. According to BA he is a slightly lower prospect than Odorizzi. Why should anyone think Nelson won't have the same type of struggles somewhere along the line as Odorizzi is now? BTW guess who had more than 26 AAA starts and more major league exposure and is still having his share of problems working his way out of a slump.

I'm sure both will be fine over the course of their careers. But when did Nelson suddenly become the next can't miss, will never struggle, phenom in baseball? All I'm saying is maybe it's time to take a step back realize he is still a young pitcher that most likely will struggle at times in his first year up. Why do that now when we have someone who is as, or more likely to put it together in a shorter period of time than Nelson will when he does struggle?

 

 

I certainly hope that Brewers don't make their decisions about their big league roster on where BA has prospects ranked.

 

And nobody, not one person has said that Nelson is a "can't miss, will never struggle, phenom in baseball?" We're talking about replacing our #5 pitcher with a guy who is dominating AAA unlike Odorizzi ever has(and it's not really close) and who has better stuff than Odorizzi has/had. Using this logic, Angel Salome would have been a much better option at catcher than Lucroy because Salome was a top 100 prospect(baseballprospectus) while Luc never was.

 

 

Nelson may struggle. May. And while you say Estrada has "already done it," he really hasn't. He's been good over parts of a season. He's never been successful over a full season as a starter...which would be one thing if he was 28, but he's 31 years old. He is what he is. A soft tosser who gives up a ton of HR's, but throws strikes. He has been effective, but as he continues to lose velocity, he's regressing. And he's not a guy who can get away with mistakes.

 

The question isn't if Nelson is ever going to struggle. Again, using that logic, when exactly would we bring up a prospect?

 

 

Incidentally, Odorizzi is striking out 10.5 per 9 right now and has a 3.35 FIP while Estrada has a FIP around 5.50. So even your example of what "could go wrong," is a guy who I'd prefer over Estrada right now. But again, Nelson throws about 4 MPH harder than Odorizzi and induces far more GB's, and where Odorizzi did struggle(at age 22/23) in very small sample sizes in the big leagues, Nelson is 25 years old and has given up 1 ER in 16 IP and just 7 hits.

 

 

So this is a strawman argument that people are presenting Nelson as some type of Clayton Kershaw type prospect as is comparing him to Odorizzi.

[logan82]

He didn't get his contract re-worked, he'll be going through the same salary control & arbitration process that every MLB player goes through.

 

I know, I'm talking about his initial rookie contract from when we drafted him, that got extended.

That's not how it works. A player gets a signing bonus when they sign after being drafted. Then the team has the player for 4-5 years before having to add them to the 40-man roster. After that there are 3 option years where the team can keep them in the minors. Then 3 years at then MLB level before the player is eligible for 3 years of arbitration. There are not contracts for more than one year for MiLB players. The MLB teams holds their rights and pays them year to year.

[reillymcshane]

RR says that Estrada isn't going anywhere.

 

Prior to Thursday's game, though, Roenicke indicated Estrada remains solidly entrenched in the rotation.

 

"We still have confidence that he can turn this thing around and get out of it," said Roenicke of Estrada, who is 5-3 with a 4.56 earned-run average in 13 starts.

 

"When I say that, turn this thing around, he's not that bad. Yes, he's given up some home runs, but he's not pitching terrible. Certainly the six runs is unusual for him. But when you talk about a guy who's pitching really bad, you're talking about a guy that's giving up five-six runs every game and he hasn't done that."

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/lucroy-on-pace-to-top-overbays-doubles-mark-b99289985z1-262979871.html

 

Milwaukee has been reluctant to go with young players when things are going well - even if those players are doing poorly (think Yuni and McGehee in 2011).

 

In Estrada's defense, he's gone through these gopher ball spells before and eventually settled down (last year he gave up 14 HR in 69 innings prior to the all-star break, then 5 in 59 innings post break. In 2012, it was 11 HR in 51 innings pre break, followed by 7 HR in 87 innings post). However, it's never been this extreme. If the club is going to stick with him, you just hope he gets it together fast. Increased walk rates and increased HR rates just aren't a good combination.

[HiAndTight]

He didn't get his contract re-worked, he'll be going through the same salary control & arbitration process that every MLB player goes through.

 

I know, I'm talking about his initial rookie contract from when we drafted him, that got extended.

 

 

I don't believe anything has been done to Nelson's contract since he's been drafted. Pretty sure he's in the same boat as 99 percent of draftees at the same time in his career.

[trwi7]

I suppose that homer was okay because it was only a solo homer.

[pacopete4]

Estrada has to be replaced. As much as I want to see it go to Nelson, at least let Fiers be the 5

[brewmann04]

Ok this should be his last start enough is enough.

[superfly]

Can we start Krod instead? The book is out on Estrada, man does he stink.