At what point does Nelson replace Estrada?

[djoctagone]

i'd feel better about cutting estrada with a healthy hiram burgos, johnny hellweg, tom gorzelanny and jim henderson, and an effective wei-chung wang, ariel pena, michael blazek and alfredo figaro. the brewers' pitching depth that was talked about in spring training is nearly non-existent now.

[bjkrautk]

I had been thinking any move would first be made coming out of the All-Star break, but a few more back-breaking homers could speed up that timetable by a few weeks.

[yoshii8]

I'm a fan of Estrada, but w/ us being in first place and Jimmy Nelson dominating AAA, I'd like to see the Brewers move Estrada to the bullpen and give Nelson a chance to stick.

[monty57]

i'd feel better about cutting estrada with a healthy hiram burgos, johnny hellweg, tom gorzelanny and jim henderson, and an effective wei-chung wang, ariel pena, michael blazek and alfredo figaro. the brewers' pitching depth that was talked about in spring training is nearly non-existent now.

 

I think ewitkows hit it on the head. We wouldn't cut Estrada right away. Rather, he and Fiers would switch spots. Estrada would see if he can "right the ship" in the bullpen, while the Brewers get to see if Fiers can pitch in the MLB rotation the way he's pitched in AAA and the way he did for the Brewers a couple of years ago.

 

If it works, great! If not, Estrada gets sent packing, Gorzellany will be back for the bullpen, and Nelson takes over in the rotation.

 

I really, really wanted Estrada to pitch well. First, it would help the Brewers now, and second it would give them a trade chip in the offseason. But, with the team in first place and other options for the rotation, Estrada's leash can't be too long right now.

[TheCrew07]

Fiers is up, you wouldn't have to make a roster move. Give him 3 or 4 starts to see what he can do

 

I'd prefer Nelson, but I can live with giving Fiers the next 3 or 4. It would allow them to see if Estrada has any value out of the pen too. Estrada is on pace to shatter the MLB record for HR allowed (50).

 

I would do this only because it would allow the Brewers to keep Nelson down long enough to keep him another year at the back end. I am always hoping for another "1992 Cal Eldred" being brought up for the stretch run.

 

If Nelson comes up for good this year that's irrelevant, he wont' accrue enough service time for it to matter as we're already into June. There's no difference service time wise between him coming up for good sometime during the rest of this season or starting on the opening day roster in 2015.

 

Super 2 status is another issue, they'd probably have to wait 2 weeks just to make sure he doesn't get that 4th year of arbitration, but it doesn't effect team control.

[Fear The Chorizo]

sort of related, but what's the current word on the health of both Gorzelanny and Henderson? Can we expect one or both to be back in the bullpen by the AS break? I think you put Estrada in the pen and give Fiers a handful of starts between now and mid July. If Thornburg's injury isn't serious and he's able to have a relatively short DL stint, maybe you get him stretched out in the minors to come back starting games. If injuries don't keep these guys out of Milwaukee, use the 3-4 Fiers starts as a showcase and possibly trade him for bench help...I don't think Estrada would be worth much more than Fiers at this point, anyway. If Nelson continues to stay healthy and dominate in AAA, he needs to become part of the MLB equation, too. I think that when an organization's best prospects show they are ready to make an impact at the MLB level, they need to be called up. Nelson's in his mid-20's and has little/nothing left to prove pitching in the minor leagues. I think it's time.

 

This is often the time period when minor pitching injuries start popping up that can be mended with short DL stints or skipping a start here and there...with the amount of options currently available, I'm hoping the Brewers are smart about giving some of these arms needed rest between now and the AS break - doing so should pay dividends come August/September.

[TheCrew07]

Gorzelanny's rehab stint is winding down and his velocity has been up and down according to Ash, the Brewers will have to make a determination there (back to the DL for more rehab or activate). Henderson made 1 rehab appearance with the Stars on 5/23, felt something, and hasn't thrown since.

[Thurston Fluff]

Every pitcher has rough patches. Nelson is bound to as well. I'd like to see how he responds to that before deeming him ready. The worst thing that could happen is to have him come up, get into a rut, and find out he isn't ready to figure out how to get out of it at this level yet. I know Estrada has bounced back before so I have faith he will again. I think he's been around long enough he deserves at least a half season to get things turned around.

[Roderick]

Every pitcher has rough patches. Nelson is bound to as well. I'd like to see how he responds to that before deeming him ready. The worst thing that could happen is to have him come up, get into a rut, and find out he isn't ready to figure out how to get out of it at this level yet. I know Estrada has bounced back before so I have faith he will again. I think he's been around long enough he deserves at least a half season to get things turned around.

 

Nelson has to have a rough patch before you would deem him ready? You sound like Roenicke.

[Thurston Fluff]

Not exactly what I meant. Nelson is bound to have a rough patch. All pitchers do. I would rather see that happen in the minors to see how he responds before believing he is going to be the better option all season long. It just seems to me a lot of people are all excited about the shiny new toy and are forgetting they are not always better than what we already have over an entire season. I am not interested in what they do in a few starts as much as I am that they are truly better for the entire season.

[phnxcrew]

Not exactly what I meant. Nelson is bound to have a rough patch. All pitchers do. I would rather see that happen in the minors to see how he responds before believing he is going to be the better option all season long. It just seems to me a lot of people are all excited about the shiny new toy and are forgetting they are not always better than what we already have over an entire season. I am not interested in what they do in a few starts as much as I am that they are truly better for the entire season.

 

So wait, are you ron roenicke?

[phnxcrew]

but seriously, nelson has struggled in the minors. He has recovered from it before. It's not like he's had a 0.00 era his whole minor league career. Word is he has really learned to command the changeup this year and it has completed his development. I'm not a betting man but I would think betting on nelson to be a better pitcher this year would be a great bet.

[JohnBriggs12]

Not exactly what I meant. Nelson is bound to have a rough patch. All pitchers do. I would rather see that happen in the minors to see how he responds before believing he is going to be the better option all season long. It just seems to me a lot of people are all excited about the shiny new toy and are forgetting they are not always better than what we already have over an entire season. I am not interested in what they do in a few starts as much as I am that they are truly better for the entire season.

 

The Brewers won't find themselves in this position very often. The postseason is there to be had. Nelson isn't going to suddenly lose 5-6 miles and sink on his fastball and leave straight pitches over the middle of the plate. He's their number one prospect for a reason, and he's had plenty of innings in the minor leagues. He's not going to dominate major league hitters like he is the guys in AAA but he's going to give them a good chance to win when he's on.

 

Estrada might have some use in the pen yet this year, but he's looking more and more like a non-tender guy this winter.

[fondybrewfan]

And also consider his first start. He obviously was battling his control and nerves (Adversity) but still managed to throw a good game. Yes I know very small sample size alert but if the reason we are holding him back is we want him to fail and recover somewhere other than MLB that seems kind of pointless. No matter when he is in MLB he is going to go through a rough patch. Estrada; the guy everyone wants him to replace, is going through a pretty bad one right now. Its not like we are calling him up to be our #1 starter and start the first game of the playoffs here. Plus his raw stuff is better than Estrada's pretty obviously.

[reillymcshane]

Not exactly what I meant. Nelson is bound to have a rough patch. All pitchers do. I would rather see that happen in the minors to see how he responds before believing he is going to be the better option all season long. It just seems to me a lot of people are all excited about the shiny new toy and are forgetting they are not always better than what we already have over an entire season. I am not interested in what they do in a few starts as much as I am that they are truly better for the entire season.

I just don't get it.

[TheCrew07]

Not exactly what I meant. Nelson is bound to have a rough patch. All pitchers do. I would rather see that happen in the minors to see how he responds before believing he is going to be the better option all season long. It just seems to me a lot of people are all excited about the shiny new toy and are forgetting they are not always better than what we already have over an entire season. I am not interested in what they do in a few starts as much as I am that they are truly better for the entire season.

I just don't get it.

 

Just a variation on the standard "prospects fail" argument... fear of the unknown.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not exactly what I meant. Nelson is bound to have a rough patch. All pitchers do. I would rather see that happen in the minors to see how he responds before believing he is going to be the better option all season long. It just seems to me a lot of people are all excited about the shiny new toy and are forgetting they are not always better than what we already have over an entire season. I am not interested in what they do in a few starts as much as I am that they are truly better for the entire season.

Nelson has had plenty of rough patches on his way up through the system. There's a reason he's dominating AAA, & it's because he's a legit MLB caliber pitcher facing competition that can't handle his hard sinker/slider combo.

 

Imo the Brewers are just waiting until they're clear of Super Two concerns to call up Nelson.

[SoupTown]

Nelson just threw another 6ip, 1 run, 10k outing in AAA again. Enough already of him in AAA. He threw 102 pitches. If you worry about his super two status, just give the guy a fortnight off, then bring him up. He is clearly now an upgrade to at least one member of the MLB team. So he should be on the MLB team.

[SoupTown]

Interesting overall, concise, Super Two, $$$ discussion http://www.thewaiverwire.co/2014/04/17/how-important-is-the-super-two-cut-off-date/

 

Most interesting points: players that qualify for “Super Two” status a step further, saying that an early promotion of a top prospect could cost a team between an extra $10-15 million over the course of arbitration

 

From my reading it is late June to early July the cutoff will come. So, if I believe all I read, you don't want to pay $10+ mill for two or three starts of Nelson. Do you do the spot start (one day service) and put him back down? Then do the same in 10 days? That would raise the ire of the players association. But they don't care about minor leaguers, do they? So the best way (and too awful to do) would be MLB start, back to AAA, AAA start, MLB start, back to AAA, AAA start, MLB start, back to AAA, AAA couple of starts... final call up, say after all star break. But that is too ugly to do... but it saves you $10 mill!

[brewmann04]

The bottom line Nelson will be an upgrade over Estrada sorry the Home runs are continuing to hurt this team

[danzig6767]

The bottom line Nelson will be an upgrade over Estrada sorry the Home runs are continuing to hurt this team

 

The walks are killing him big time IMO.

 

Marco has always been very homer prone, but it's been his ability to keep a low WHIP which kept many of those home runs solo shots or two run jacks. His normally very low walk rate has really spiked of late though and it's killing him, turning to many of those home runs into 2-3 run homers, even grand slams as we saw yesterday.

 

He has to stay ahead in the count a lot and keep walks at a minimum. Looking at his stats, he's still below a hit per innings pitched and the K rate pretty good, but he's already allowed as many walks in 79 innings as he did in 128 innings last year and 138 innings the previous year.

[brewers4eric]

Considering that Estrada was picked off the scrap heap from a pretty bad Nationals roster years ago, I've been amazed that the Brewers have gotten the innings out of him that they have during his time in Milwaukee. He can look dominant when he can control his off speed stuff, especially his changeup. When he can't, the ball flies out of the park in a hurry.

 

I would describe Estrada as "consistently streaky" as a starter. Hopefully he turns things around again and gets on a hot streak. The nice thing is that we've got some viable options if he doesn't, which has been a rarity during my 36 year tenure as a Brewers fan. It is strange to see a Brewers team with pitching depth.

[pacopete4]

I don't think there's any big deal adding Estrada to the pen. He can be a guy that gives you 2-3 innings every 3-4 days.

[davego]

Wouldn't the 'Crew be clear of super-2 shortly? Seems to be mid-June most years.

 

It would also be ok if Estrada came downs with Lymes or pink eye and it took 60 days to recover.

[ewitkows]

No making the playoffs this year will cost the Brewers more than the 10-15 mil of super 2 status