At what point does Nelson replace Estrada?

[FVBrewerFan]

Exactly. There are teams out there that simply need a serviceable, cheap guy in the rotation. We should know, the Brewers were one of those teams for years. Even if Nelson wasn't ready, I would put Fiers in the rotation over Estrada. (Although admitedly I would give Estrada a little more time to work it out in that case.)

 

But Nelson is almost a no-brainer at this point. He is a better pitcher, and he is ready.

[StearnsFTW]

He had a bad month. April he was lights out. Let's see what the rest of the month has to offer before even entertaining a change.

 

Yep.

 

Pretty ridiculous idea IMO.

[HiAndTight]

H&T

You seem to think trading "for" Estrada is a move to win. It's not a move to win for either Philly/SD. They're losers.

The idea is to provide depth under both current team's situation at the cost of a FA to be Bench player(ie selling) or a C prospect that may or may never make the Majors. Trading that prospect for 1+seasons of Estrada.

This entire discussion is about Nelson taking over Estrada's spot. Rather than just put Estrada in the bullpen you trade him to make the roster spot for Nelson. If it's adding a bench player that player likely means waiving one of our weak bench players.

 

I did suggest he can net a decent 1b/3b prospect but his recent starts aren't helping his value. The HRs are fine so long as he's not walking guys like he has done lately.

The whole point in trading Estrada is you're just not trading him to a winning a team. He's going to be a move to a losing team that has use for him next season at the back end of their staff and also to get through this season w/o burning in to Prospects service time who aren't ready.

 

 

Of course I think a team trading for Estrada would be a trade for a "move to win." Otherwise it'd be foolish for a small market team like SD to trade for Estrada when they're going to have a decent rotation next year(assuming Kelly is ready to go). So why would they want to pay 6-7 million dollars for a #5 pitcher? Especially when they have guys like Matt Wisler a top 50 prospect in AAA, Kelly, another top 50 prospect back from TJ, to go with Cashner, Kennedy, Ross. They also have a handful of prospects in AA and AAA who have had success in the minors. So why with three good starters, a couple of top prospects in AAA would they want to pay 6 million for a guy who has no place in their future? It just doesn't make sense.

 

And the Phillies...Estrada would be awful in Philly. He'd likely give up even more HR's in Philly than in Milwaukee. They could afford him, but why would they want him? Plus, the Philles also have guys to go with Hamels, Lee and are far more likely to add one of the several top FA pitchers.

 

The teams that would WANT Estrada are the teams that are close to a playoff spot THIS YEAR and could use a serviceable #5 starter. I don't think Estrada has much trade value, but I think he has absolutely none to a team that's not in contention this year. I think any team that would give up anything for him would be a team that's dealing with injuries, but just needs a guy to get them through a rough patch.

 

I just don't see any team trading for a 31 year old pitcher this year when they're out of contention in the hopes that he's going to help them out when he's a year older.

[HiAndTight]

He had a bad month. April he was lights out. Let's see what the rest of the month has to offer before even entertaining a change.

 

Yep.

 

Pretty ridiculous idea IMO.

 

 

Except for the fact that Nelson has been absolutely dominant, not only in the minor leagues, but he's given up 7 hits and 1 ER in about 16 innings in the big leagues. Nelson looks like he'd be a clear upgrade over Estrada. If you can improve your rotation by adding in a pitcher who can throw in the mid 90's with a plus slider and is a big GB pitcher and is 25 vs a older pitcher who throws 88 and is giving up HR's at a ridiculous rate, why wouldn't you?

 

 

I think the answer is Nelson's service time. Once there isn't any question that he'll get another year of arbitration, I think he gets his shot.

[endaround]

He had a bad month. April he was lights out. Let's see what the rest of the month has to offer before even entertaining a change.

 

Yep.

 

Pretty ridiculous idea IMO.

 

 

Except for the fact that Nelson has been absolutely dominant, not only in the minor leagues, but he's given up 7 hits and 1 ER in about 16 innings in the big leagues. Nelson looks like he'd be a clear upgrade over Estrada. If you can improve your rotation by adding in a pitcher who can throw in the mid 90's with a plus slider and is a big GB pitcher and is 25 vs a older pitcher who throws 88 and is giving up HR's at a ridiculous rate, why wouldn't you?

 

 

I think the answer is Nelson's service time. Once there isn't any question that he'll get another year of arbitration, I think he gets his shot.

 

Except that isn't true. Estrada still projects better than Nelson. Nelson has struggled in Milwaukee with his control and he has has a history of needing half a season to get his control worked out every time he goes up a level. The fact that he has a 93% strand rate is luck not talent.

[JohnBriggs12]

"The fact that he has a 93% strand rate is luck not talent."

 

Really?? He's made good pitches with men on. That's luck??

[igor67]

Nelson might very well have an adjustment period, but his current AAA performance is more than just him settling in like he did at other levels, his control and K rates are the best of his career. I'm not in favor of a rash promotion, but it is getting to the point that you look at improving the rotation from within.

[endaround]

"The fact that he has a 93% strand rate is luck not talent."

 

Really?? He's made good pitches with men on. That's luck??

 

Yes. Strand rate is mostly luck, and any rate that high is unsustainable.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think any team that would give up anything for him would be a team that's dealing with injuries, but just needs a guy to get them through a rough patch.

 

So based on what I said about Philly/SD doesn't that statement just agree with why I said he'd be a good fit for those 2 teams? They are in an injury riddled rough patch with Pitching.

 

I just don't see any team trading for a 31 year old pitcher this year when they're out of contention in the hopes that he's going to help them out when he's a year older.

Far be it for a team to think ahead to next year. Just because SD has some prospects to call up, doesn't mean they can't get a guy to get through this season while getting a look to how he performs in their ballpark. Those prospects San Diego will have to decide are they ready to begin next season and if they look poor in Spring Training. You now look at Team control decisions. Keeping them down in AAA through June to keep the better,younger SP under control for 1 more year. Why get 15 starts from a guy who has 3ERA potential and lose a year of team control being a 5ERA in them? When you can just pitch Estrada with a 4ERA in the same 15starts and then if that prospect is what Nelson is this year, call him up? And again injuries. So many injuries I'd rather take Estrada as a fallback guy than to have to pick through the SP FA scrapheaps and sign Aaron Harangs/Johan Santanas last month of Spring Training in emergency.

 

Maybe it's a combo type deal. Estrada plus Morris for Alonso. A kinda perfect change of scenery guy. Milw, then has their 1b situation clearer for next season. San Diego gets a look at both Estrada/Morris for next season moving forward.

[SoupTown]

I actually think the thread could be 'at what point does Nelson replace Marco or YoGa'. Gallardo is really, to my eye, on the start of a bad career slide. I think Marco has had a bad patch. But Yovani is looking like he will break apart at any time - these painful less than 6 inning 100+ pitches, giving up a few runs, are... painful.

 

To be honest, I can see in 2015 neither Marco (trade) or Gallardo (non tender) being around. The next month will really, really tell us a lot. A couple of bad patches for both - or maybe the use by date has come.

[homer]

Someone's going to go on the DL eventually and render this thread moot....or it will be "At what point does Fiers replace Estrada/Garza/Gallardo/Peralta?"

[HiAndTight]

Except that isn't true. Estrada still projects better than Nelson. Nelson has struggled in Milwaukee with his control and he has has a history of needing half a season to get his control worked out every time he goes up a level. The fact that he has a 93% strand rate is luck not talent.

 

 

According to who does Estrada STILL project better than Nelson? He certainly doesn't to me. Nelson and his mid 90's fastball and a nasty slider and he doesn't give up HR's.

 

I'm not going to get too hung up on his strand rate as he's pitched just 16 innings in the big leagues. The prospect of replacing Estrada has far more to do with his dominance in AAA and pure ability than picking apart those 16 innings over 2 years to try and cling to the fact that he's not a better option than Estrada.

 

Obviously nobody knows what Nelson is going to do in his first extended big league action. He just as easily come up and dominant the way Fiers did in his first stint.

 

I actually think the thread could be 'at what point does Nelson replace Marco or YoGa'. Gallardo is really, to my eye, on the start of a bad career slide. I think Marco has had a bad patch. But Yovani is looking like he will break apart at any time - these painful less than 6 inning 100+ pitches, giving up a few runs, are... painful.

 

To be honest, I can see in 2015 neither Marco (trade) or Gallardo (non tender) being around. The next month will really, really tell us a lot. A couple of bad patches for both - or maybe the use by date has come.

 

I agree with you on Gallardo...to a point. I don't think the Brewers turn down his option year, but I would like to see the Brewers be proactive and trade him while he still has good value.

 

Yesterday was an outstanding game by Yo. He looked like he did prior to last year. More life on his fastball, the curve looked great, he was getting in on guys hands. If he can just keep performing at a higher level for another couple months, he could still have very good trade value. But he certainly does look like he's starting to decline, and he is a really good sorta litmus test to see if the Brewers can identify that and trade a guy a year too early as opposed to a year too late as they say. The Rays are the only team that I know of that does this regularly, so I'm not expecting it, but I'd certainly like to see it.

[fondybrewfan]

Frankly I don't care who Nelson slots in for eventually, just find a way to get him pitching. For Christ sake the guy has an ERA of 1.51, more than 1 K per inning, a 3.62 K/BB ratio, and .879 WHIP. Just find a way, the kid can pitch and help the Brewers now. He is already 25; just get him up already.

[HiAndTight]

So based on what I said about Philly/SD doesn't that statement just agree with why I said he'd be a good fit for those 2 teams? They are in an injury riddled rough patch with Pitching.

 

It does if you take my entire post and everything I've said and ignore it and instead focus on this. Those two teams are 18 games under .500 and are the 2nd worst team in MLB and the 5th worst team in MLB record wise.

 

So why on EARTH would they want to give up something of value...or hell, even just take Estrada at this point? As I've said repeatedly, MAYBE a team like the Yankees or another team trying to WIN this year might want Estrada just to give them some decent starts while they deal with injuries.

 

There is no logical reason I can see that two of the worst teams in the game would a 31 year old pitcher with a very low ceiling who's been declining for the last 3+ years and who is going to cost 5-6-7 million dollars next year when they have no chance to contend. This is again setting aside the fact that he may not even be one of the 5 best starters on either team.

 

Did you, as a Brewers fan want the Brewers to go out and try and trade for a guy like Bud Norris(whom you've brought up on several occasions) who's younger and got a stronger track record than Estrada when we were in almost the exact same situation as both Philly and SD? No, of course not. We wanted to see how guys like Thornburg, Nelson, Fiers and others could perform rather than bringing in a veteran on a team that wasn't going to contend.

 

 

Far be it for a team to think ahead to next year. Just because SD has some prospects to call up, doesn't mean they can't get a guy to get through this season while getting a look to how he performs in their ballpark. Those prospects San Diego will have to decide are they ready to begin next season and if they look poor in Spring Training. You now look at Team control decisions. Keeping them down in AAA through June to keep the better,younger SP under control for 1 more year. Why get 15 starts from a guy who has 3ERA potential and lose a year of team control being a 5ERA in them? When you can just pitch Estrada with a 4ERA in the same 15starts and then if that prospect is what Nelson is this year, call him up? And again injuries. So many injuries I'd rather take Estrada as a fallback guy than to have to pick through the SP FA scrapheaps and sign Aaron Harangs/Johan Santanas last month of Spring Training in emergency.

 

Well, I wouldn't rather do that as Harang has pitched significantly better than Estrada and cost less and Santana is an outlier and shouldn't even be considered in this conversation as Baltimore was never truly counting on him.

 

And those prospects they've got will almost certainly pitch for them this season. This reminds me of the conversation in which we were talking about trading Braun to the Marlins for Stanton and Fernandez. What in the Padres history tells you they'd rather bring in average starting pitcher with an injury history for 6 million dollars rather than go with their own talented young pitchers?

 

Also, they don't lost an extra year of service time if they bring them up to start next year, they just won't be super 2 guys.

 

 

So again, if you want to look for teams that MIGHT be interested in Estrada's services, I don't think it makes any sense whatsoever to look at the worst teams in baseball as opposed to the top teams in baseball who might deal with injuries. The worst teams are going to look to the future and would want to acquire guys with higher ceilings rather than stopgaps when they're not in a position to contend. Estrada to the Padres doesn't make any sense on any level other than using the "what if these extraordinary circumstances arise and maybe they want to do this," type scenarios."

 

 

Maybe it's a combo type deal. Estrada plus Morris for Alonso. A kinda perfect change of scenery guy. Milw, then has their 1b situation clearer for next season. San Diego gets a look at both Estrada/Morris for next season moving forward.

 

That trade would make more sense for SD if you just took Estrada out of it. Estrada probably has negative value to SD right now. As I said, they have Cashner, Ross, Kennedy, Wisler who's struggled a bit in AAA, but was great in AA this year and has a 10.5 K/9 rate, and Casey Kelly. Right there, you're starting 5 and a very good starting rotation, and they have depth should injuries arise.

 

ESPECIALLY for a team that's not likely going to contend next year.

 

 

I just don't get when the smallest market teams decided to start paying 6 million dollars to "take a look," at aging veterans when they have what appears 5 good starting pitchers who would be making a combined 11 million dollars this year.

[monty57]

I don't think the Brewers will trade any of their starters this season, but to the discussion at hand:

 

Adding Estrada would seem to make a lot more sense for a contending team that has a need for a back-of-the-rotation starter. If we were looking at getting a prospect in return for Estrada, this would seem to be the most likely route, as they may give up a prospect if the need for a "proven" MLB arm is there. I don't see a contender trading away a useful MLB piece, so if we were looking to use Estrada to get a "Hairston-type" piece, I don't see a contender giving him up.

 

"Bottom feeders" often sign a veteran for the rotation if they don't have other options, so there is a chance a losing team would take Estrada to fill out the rotation for next year. I wouldn't expect much (if anything) in return, but if the Brewers were simply looking to clear salary and a roster spot this year, then I guess a last-place team might bite. In order for the Brewers to get anything in return, either the team would need to have an expensive player they're desperate to get rid of (Estrada's salary would offset the financial hit to the Brewers) or Estrada would need to look like a much better option than any of the "B-caliber" free agents who will be on the market this offseason. Otherwise, the team would simply pass on Estrada and sign the "B-caliber" free agent. This seems a bit far-fetched, but if the Brewers were really looking to trade Estrada this season (I don't think they will), they should keep all doors open.

 

Either way, trading Estrada mid-season this year probably wouldn't return what the Brewers would be looking for, which is a MLB player who could help out this year. The contender wouldn't trade this player away, and the "bottom feeder" would rather receive a prospect than a 1.5 year rental of Estrada. That's why I think we'll use one of our "second tier" prospects to get MLB help this season, and will trade one of Estrada/Gallardo/Lohse (probably Estrada) this offseason.

[HiAndTight]

I don't think the Brewers will trade any of their starters this season, but to the discussion at hand:

 

Adding Estrada would seem to make a lot more sense for a contending team that has a need for a back-of-the-rotation starter. If we were looking at getting a prospect in return for Estrada, this would seem to be the most likely route, as they may give up a prospect if the need for a "proven" MLB arm is there. I don't see a contender trading away a useful MLB piece, so if we were looking to use Estrada to get a "Hairston-type" piece, I don't see a contender giving him up.

 

"Bottom feeders" often sign a veteran for the rotation if they don't have other options, so there is a chance a losing team would take Estrada to fill out the rotation for next year. I wouldn't expect much (if anything) in return, but if the Brewers were simply looking to clear salary and a roster spot this year, then I guess a last-place team might bite. In order for the Brewers to get anything in return, either the team would need to have an expensive player they're desperate to get rid of (Estrada's salary would offset the financial hit to the Brewers) or Estrada would need to look like a much better option than any of the "B-caliber" free agents who will be on the market this offseason. Otherwise, the team would simply pass on Estrada and sign the "B-caliber" free agent. This seems a bit far-fetched, but if the Brewers were really looking to trade Estrada this season (I don't think they will), they should keep all doors open.

 

Either way, trading Estrada mid-season this year probably wouldn't return what the Brewers would be looking for, which is a MLB player who could help out this year. The contender wouldn't trade this player away, and the "bottom feeder" would rather receive a prospect than a 1.5 year rental of Estrada. That's why I think we'll use one of our "second tier" prospects to get MLB help this season, and will trade one of Estrada/Gallardo/Lohse (probably Estrada) this offseason.

 

 

This sums up my position nicely. If a team like the Angels or Seattle were to lose a starter, they might target him...Seattle actually could work if they would send Hart back(assuming he came back healthy) and some money to offset the salary. But heading into next season, this is the list of FA's that I think teams would pursue before Estrada;

 

Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option

Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (34)

Gavin Floyd (32)

Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

Jason Hammel (32)

Aaron Harang (37)

Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Hiroki Kuroda (40)

Jon Lester (31)

Francisco Liriano (31)

Paul Maholm (33)

Justin Masterson (30)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jake Peavy (34)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Ervin Santana (32)

Max Scherzer (30)

James Shields (33)

Ryan Vogelsong (37)

Edinson Volquez (30)

 

Joe Saunders, Carlos Villanueva, Paul Maholm, Josh Johnson, Roberto Hernandez, J.A Happ, Colby Lewis are guys that could be had for cheap or who teams could plug in for a couple months while waiting for a younger prospect. Someone like Saunders or Villanueva would be far more likely options for a team like the Padres for a 2 million dollar deal than Estrada would for 6 million+ whatever assets it would take to trade for him.

 

 

I think Estrada's usefulness to the Brewers is just about over. He was a very nice guy to plug in there when we had injuries and he was cheap. But as he turns 32 and we have 3 high priced starters next year(Lohse, Garza and Gallardo) to go with young pitchers like Peralta, Nelson and Fiers, Jungman, Smith, Thornburg who either are currently starting or all capable of starting, and I don't see a future for Estrada here. I see a lot of pitchers who will likely be in that 6-8 million dollar range who have a much stronger background(Dan Haren, Beckett, Hammel) as well as a really impressive class of top tier starting pitchers.

 

 

 

Looking at this FA class makes me even more convinced that it'd be logical to move Gallardo right now as opposed to next year when there are so many talented pitchers entering free agency. There are 3-4 20 million dollar a year pitchers on this list and a number of solid #3 types. Gallardo has definitely shown signs he's regressing, but I think with his history, age and relative affordability could net us one good prospect.

[ewitkows]

Now would be a good time I think

[davego]

I like now as well.

[ewitkows]

Fiers is up, you wouldn't have to make a roster move. Give him 3 or 4 starts to see what he can do

[SoupTown]

Yes, this idea of walk + homerun, then walk, walk, walk + homerun is 100% unacceptable. This trend has been appearing for a few starts. If RRR was proactive with Henderson, then NOW is the time to be proactive with Marco.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fiers is up, you wouldn't have to make a roster move. Give him 3 or 4 starts to see what he can do

 

I'd prefer Nelson, but I can live with giving Fiers the next 3 or 4. It would allow them to see if Estrada has any value out of the pen too. Estrada is on pace to shatter the MLB record for HR allowed (50).

[RobDeer 45]

I also agree now is the time. I also can see Estrada coming back for a few starts down the road and doing well. I have nothing to back this up, but when he has gotten spot starts in the past, he's seemed to do well. I think having him in the pen would be nice.

[Roderick]

Fiers is up, you wouldn't have to make a roster move. Give him 3 or 4 starts to see what he can do

 

I'd prefer Nelson, but I can live with giving Fiers the next 3 or 4. It would allow them to see if Estrada has any value out of the pen too. Estrada is on pace to shatter the MLB record for HR allowed (50).

 

I would do this only because it would allow the Brewers to keep Nelson down long enough to keep him another year at the back end. I am always hoping for another "1992 Cal Eldred" being brought up for the stretch run.

[fondybrewfan]

I would be surprised if RR pulls him from the rotation right now; but if this trend continues for another 2 starts or so I think it will be impossible to keep Nelson in AAA or Fiers in the bullpen. He always has given up a ton of HR's but this year has been ridiculous which is made even worse by the walks.

[JohnBriggs12]

Estrada's trade value is almost nil at this point. Roenicke might see him as a guy who's capable but the rest of the league sees him as a struggling 5th starter. Darling and Hernandez were ripping Roenicke on the Mets broadcast for not having a guy up sooner as Estrada was walking guys in the 6th, basically saying "he's a 5th starter, and you have to be ready to pull that guy when he gets to the third time around in the batting order". They had barely gotten that said when, boom, ballgame over.

 

Estrada is on pace to shatter Blyleven's 50 HR allowed in a season record and he's on pace to do it in about 90 fewer innings. Yeah this team has other issues elsewhere, but they have a solution to this one. It's is a guy who's dealing in AAA who happens to be their number 1 prospect. Pull the plug already.