At what point does Nelson replace Estrada?

[phnxcrew]

Yes, I realize that Garza's era is higher. But Garza and Gallardo have track records for success. Now as I have stated I'd like to replace Gallardo ASAP but Estrada has only had minor success in parts of a few seasons. He's never pitched a full year and it might be the league has just figured him out. We all seem to agree that Nelson is ready and most likely will pitch well as soon as he steps into a big league role. So how long do we let estrada keep hiking his era up while leading the league in home runs allowed?

[gregmag]

I've been wondering if the Brewers might end up in both buyer and seller mode this July. Assuming the pitchers stay healthy, they actually have an excess of rotation guys. Maybe they hope Estrada puts together a couple of good starts, so that they can then flip him for a prospect. I wouldn't expect a great return, but we got Delmonico for two months of Rodriguez, and Estrada pitching up to his track record (assuming he can do that) has more value than Rodriguez did at the time of that deal. Make that deal and it fortifies our system as we look to trade for a bat or two.

 

I know contending teams never do stuff like this, because teams avoid risk when they're winning. But if phnxcrew's premise is right, which I think it is, you would have a hard time second-guessing an Estrada deal.

 

EDIT: Now I see there's a whole thread about the selling contender idea. Story of my life -- occasional interesting thoughts, always a day late.

[JohnBriggs12]

They've painted themselves in a corner. Their number 1 prospect is dominating at AAA and appears ready to take rotation spot. Estrada's been ok by 5th starter standards, but if he continues making one mediocre start after another, they need to make the change and go with the much higher ceiling guy with better stuff. Problem is what do you do with Estrada? Bullpen is crowded now and that's without Henderson and Gorzelanny. They seem committed to Wang too as has been well documented and discussed.

 

I suspect they'll give Estrada until the end of June. If he continues along as he has the last month, they will make a change perhaps dealing Estrada for minimal value back. Of course all that could change with an injury or two in the meantime. If it were me, I'd pull the plug a bit sooner. It's not that they don't have other options if Nelson struggles too.

 

Estrada himself is feeling the heat. You can see it in his body language.

[Bombers]

I heard the discussion on 1250 this morning and I would disagree with dumping Estrada. That seems pretty shortsighted to me.

 

Here is Marco's last two years of starting splits

2012 - 3.76 ERA / 1.152 WHIP / 5.32 SO/W / Opponent OPS .714

2013 - 3.87 ERA / 1.078 WHIP / 4.07 SO/W / Opponent OPS .670

 

Here are some 2014 numbers for you from 5 different players:

Player A - 4.54 ERA / 1.471 WHIP / 2.03 SO/W / Opponent OPS .726

Player B - 4.19 ERA / 1.205 WHIP / 2.87 SO/W / Opponent OPS .791

Player C - 4.06 ERA / 1.427 WHIP / 1.45 SO/W / Opponent OPS .755

Player D - 4.62 ERA / 1.342 WHIP / 2.65 SO/W / Opponent OPS .747

Player E - 4.01 ERA / 1.316 WHIP / 2.78 SO/W / Opponent OPS .703

 

The players are Francisco Liriano, Marco Estrada Shelby Miller, Gio Gonzalez and Cole Hamels. In order.

 

Maybe all of those teams should be looking for a replacement? I guess the good thing for the Brewers is he is their #5. I guess I am on the side of why burn our depth and what dump Estrada? Yes, Jimmy Nelson is ready. But I would rather have him as our #6 in AAA waiting for one of those 1 month injuries and then bring him up for that.

 

Now if the discusion is who spot does he take next year? For me, I am hoping Yo has a great year, we pick up his option and trade him this off season.

[HiAndTight]

It's obviously a unique situation. As has been pointed out, there isn't much room for Estrada in the pen, and I don't personally believe that Estrada has much trade value. Maybe if you made a mutually beneficial trade with another contender you could pick up a decent utility IF'er who could be a substantial upgrade over what we have.

 

Normally, I think you'd be alright with Estrada, even with his warts. His HR's and the fact that because he relies on command, when he misses his spot, he often gets hit hard as evident by his big HR rate. But when you have a guy like Nelson who by all appearances is ready and ready right now and someone I believe could come in and not only equal Estrada's performance, but just MAYBE be a guy who can give a team that's already in first place a boost, I think you really have to try and get him into the rotation.

 

I'm not saying Nelson is going to come in and be a Wacha like pitcher....but he at least has the talent to be a difference maker in big games down the stretch. He has the big velocity and throws a heavy ball racking up the ground balls, he seems to have solved any control/command issues he has. It looks like his slider has turned into a plus pitch. The only concern from his limited MLB time is that he is primarily a two pitch pitcher(three pitches if you count a 2 and 4 seamer that moves a lot).

 

Frankly, as mentioned above, I'd prefer to trade Gallardo as I think his value would be SO much higher just because his track record is much stronger, but I think it's unlikely. So to answer your question, I would like to see Nelson in the starting rotation by start of July, but I'm guessing it's going to take Estrada struggling a bit more than he has in order for him to lose his spot in the rotation. He hasn't pitched well, but he also hasn't pitched poorly enough that as an organization I think they're going to pull the plug on him yet.

 

 

 

I don't believe they're "painted into a corner," however. They've simply got a good big league rotation and a couple of pitchers pitching REALLY well in AAA who might force a very serviceable starter out of the rotation. If that's being painted in to a corner, that's a corner I really would have liked to have seen the Brewers in for the past several years.

[SRB]

I didn't realize how bad Estrada has been before looking at his season line. Honestly, it seems like Nelson should be in the major right now and even if Estrada wasn't pitching so poorly it might make sense to bump him for Nelson.

 

Maybe they are waiting a little longer due to service time considerations?

[TooLiveBrew]

I didn't realize how bad Estrada has been before looking at his season line. Honestly, it seems like Nelson should be in the major right now and even if Estrada wasn't pitching so poorly it might make sense to bump him for Nelson.

 

Maybe they are waiting a little longer due to service time considerations?

Nelson wouldn't be able to accrue a full season of service time if he was called up today. He's only currently listed (at Baseball-Reference.com) as having 27 service days, and by my count he wouldn't be able to notch more than ~115 or so service days the rest of this regular season. For anyone unfamiliar, a full year of service time is defined as 172 days (with a full MLB regular season typically having around 180-185 service days)

 

There is a possibility of him becoming a Super Two player (meaning, eligible for arbitration before notching a full three seasons' worth of service time), but I'm not sure how well that can be predicted this far out. This MLBTR piece cites the following: "As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes wrote in October, qualification [for Super Two status] has landed between 2.122 and 2.146 years of service in recent years."

 

If Nelson were called up tomorrow & stayed up the rest of the way, he'd finish with 142 service days by my count. So it could well be that the Brewers are waiting to call him up until he'd likely be safe from earning Super Two status. If this is the motivation, I wouldn't expect to see him up (barring an injury in the rotation) until July.

[HiAndTight]

I heard the discussion on 1250 this morning and I would disagree with dumping Estrada. That seems pretty shortsighted to me.

 

Here is Marco's last two years of starting splits

2012 - 3.76 ERA / 1.152 WHIP / 5.32 SO/W / Opponent OPS .714

2013 - 3.87 ERA / 1.078 WHIP / 4.07 SO/W / Opponent OPS .670

 

Here are some 2014 numbers for you from 5 different players:

Player A - 4.54 ERA / 1.471 WHIP / 2.03 SO/W / Opponent OPS .726

Player B - 4.19 ERA / 1.205 WHIP / 2.87 SO/W / Opponent OPS .791

Player C - 4.06 ERA / 1.427 WHIP / 1.45 SO/W / Opponent OPS .755

Player D - 4.62 ERA / 1.342 WHIP / 2.65 SO/W / Opponent OPS .747

Player E - 4.01 ERA / 1.316 WHIP / 2.78 SO/W / Opponent OPS .703

 

The players are Francisco Liriano, Marco Estrada Shelby Miller, Gio Gonzalez and Cole Hamels. In order.

 

Maybe all of those teams should be looking for a replacement? I guess the good thing for the Brewers is he is their #5. I guess I am on the side of why burn our depth and what dump Estrada? Yes, Jimmy Nelson is ready. But I would rather have him as our #6 in AAA waiting for one of those 1 month injuries and then bring him up for that.

 

Now if the discusion is who spot does he take next year? For me, I am hoping Yo has a great year, we pick up his option and trade him this off season.

 

No, those teams should not be and the reason why should be pretty obvious.

 

Estrada is a 31 year old pitcher who throws 88 MPH, has a 5.49 FIP and is leading the league in HR's. He is not, nor was he ever one of the top 5-10 prospects in the game, he's not 24 and he didn't throw 173 innings with a 3.06 ERA last year as Miller did last year.

 

He has not averaged 220 innings over the past 7 years(playoffs included) with an ERA/FIP of 3.31/3.50 over that time period while also having a 7 year 153 million dollar contract like Cole Hamels.

 

He has not averaged 200 innings over the past 4 years, is not 28, has not been in the top 3 of the Cy Young voting with an ERA of 3.15, FIP of 3.42 over the past 4 years like Gio Gonzalez.

 

Liriano is at least closer than these others who are in entirely different circumstances and leagues than Estrada, however the Brewers have better pitching depth than the Pirates(particularly with Tallion done for the year). And he's also pitched 163 innings last year putting up an ERA of 3.02 and an FIP of 2.92.

 

Estrada -.5 WAR this year.

Hamels 1.0 WAR

Gonzalez .7 WAR

Miller -.5 WAR

Liriano .5 WAR

[TheCrew07]

The players are Francisco Liriano, Marco Estrada Shelby Miller, Gio Gonzalez and Cole Hamels. In order.

 

You made a purely statistical argument ignoring age, stuff, and track record.

 

The Pirates shouldn't view Liriano as any kind of long-term solution and likely don't, he was meant to be a stop gap to Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, etc. He's there because they don't have other options.

 

Shelby Miller is much younger than Estrada, he's got top of the rotation stuff, and is in just his full second season. He also also has issues, but he's not someone you just give up on either, he's guy you keep at the back of your rotation like the Reds did with Bailey until he figures it out.

 

Gio Gonzalez never had much stuff, his best pitch is his CB, last I remember as prospect he topped out around 93 which put him working at 90-91, though he's a lefty so it plays up some. He appeared to peak in 2012, he's not someone I would count on long-term either.

 

Cole Hamels is 30, has a ton of mileage on his arm, and I'd be looking to move on from him just like I would any player in their early 30s, however he's pretty much the same guy he's always been statistically.

 

Estrada doesn't match up well stuff wise with any of those players except Gonzalez who's logged 981 innings his career to Marco's paltry 463.1, not to mention Gio is 2 years younger and left handed. Marco had some good fortune will solo HRs, but I don't think that's really something we should be banking on to continue. He's always been prone to the HR as a pitcher because he doesn't throw hard and leaves the ball up.

 

I get that Marco is effective but he's also the starting pitcher the Brewers will have to most likely have to cover an injury for as well, he doesn't have great stuff, though he's got 1 very good off speed pitch, and he's never located all that well.

 

The real question here is what teams have additional options behind the pitchers listed and which of those pitchers can we reasonably project to right the ship given what they've done over the past? Estrada is floating exactly about where his overall package lies as a pitcher, he's a high 3/low 4 ERA guy in any given year. He's not bad, he's simply replaceable for all of the reasons laid out in the transaction forum.

 

Any pitcher can have a down year but moving Estrada isn't about what he is, but rather what he isn't. You don't give him away but if there's a really good trade sitting out there for Estrada or Gallardo why not pull the trigger and try to get something that could be part of the Brewer's future?

 

If you don't think you would make either player a qualifying offer (hoping they'd turn it down) then shouldn't the idea be not "if" to look at making a deal but rather taking the best deal "when" it presents itself? If now is that time why not make a move?

 

The Brewers don't have to "knee jerk" and pull Estrada from the rotation but they absolutely shouldn't sit on their hands either. In the right situation moving on from Estrada could be better for the present and future.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just posted in the IGT on Estrada. You don't replace Estrada until his ERA climbs above 4.5 on the season. Though Estrada is allowing more BBs recently so that trend could also dictate giving Nelson the call. I think Milwaukee keeps Estrada up until he's traded later on. Philly or San Diego appear to be fits currently with their records/home parks. I could see swapping Estrada for a Bench player+C prospect given that Estrada can start for those two teams next season.

[danzig6767]

Marco has always given up a lot of home runs, it's his glaring weakness.

 

That said, he's been able to be fairly effective because he doesn't give up a lot of hits, his walk rate has been really good, so has been his K rate, leading to impressive WHIP totals.

 

This year though, his home runs allowed have gone from bad to horrific and for whatever reason his walk rate is up. When Marco keeps his WHIP at impressive levels like the last two years (1.142/1.078), that means fewer baserunners on base to score when he serves up a juicy fastball to get jacked out of the park or in the gap for a double.

 

Solo homers are ok with Marco, but it's the 2-3 run homers which are a killer. He has to get his walk rate back to previous norms.

[Roderick]

So it could well be that the Brewers are waiting to call him up until he'd likely be safe from earning Super Two status. If this is the motivation, I wouldn't expect to see him up (barring an injury in the rotation) until July.

 

I don't see the Brewers replacing Estrada until Nelson is clearly out of Super 2 status. Which might work out nicely, as RR won't want to be seen as pushing a veteran out of a spot, but if Estrada earns his demotion with a couple of more subpar starts in the interim....

[HiAndTight]

Just posted in the IGT on Estrada. You don't replace Estrada until his ERA climbs above 4.5 on the season. Though Estrada is allowing more BBs recently so that trend could also dictate giving Nelson the call. I think Milwaukee keeps Estrada up until he's traded later on. Philly or San Diego appear to be fits currently with their records/home parks. I could see swapping Estrada for a Bench player+C prospect given that Estrada can start for those two teams next season.

 

 

4.5 is just an arbitrary figure. If you believe Nelson is better, does it really matter if he manages to hold is ERA at 4.3 as opposed to 4.5?

 

And I just don't see why either Philly or SD would want Estrada. Philly plays in a sandbox and is 9 games under .500 in a tough division. There doesn't seem to be any match there.

 

SD plays in a hitters park, but why would they want a 31 year old back of the rotation starting pitcher? I think you can get either the bench player OR the C prospect for Estrada, maybe a little more(C+ prospect) from a team like the Yankees who might need a guy for a month because of injuries.

[danzig6767]

Just posted in the IGT on Estrada. You don't replace Estrada until his ERA climbs above 4.5 on the season. Though Estrada is allowing more BBs recently so that trend could also dictate giving Nelson the call. I think Milwaukee keeps Estrada up until he's traded later on. Philly or San Diego appear to be fits currently with their records/home parks. I could see swapping Estrada for a Bench player+C prospect given that Estrada can start for those two teams next season.

4.5 is just an arbitrary figure. If you believe Nelson is better, does it really matter if he manages to hold is ERA at 4.3 as opposed to 4.5?

 

And I just don't see why either Philly or SD would want Estrada. Philly plays in a sandbox and is 9 games under .500 in a tough division. There doesn't seem to be any match there.

 

SD plays in a hitters park, but why would they want a 31 year old back of the rotation starting pitcher? I think you can get either the bench player OR the C prospect for Estrada, maybe a little more(C+ prospect) from a team like the Yankees who might need a guy for a month because of injuries.

Marco in Yankee stadium would be a disaster with that short porch in right field. Now the Padres may have no interest in him, but at least Petco would be an ideal park for him to pitch in.

[FVBrewerFan]

Does Marco have any options left? Because I don't want a HR machine coming out of the pen. If Nelson takes his place in the rotation, I would rather he go to Nashville and be prepared to start if needed later in the season.

 

It's troubling he doesn't have command over his change over the last 4-5 starts now. If he doesn't have that, he doesn't have much.

 

My other question is, what limit does Nelson have on innings this year? If he comes up and pitched into October he would be on pace for 185 innings. And that's a conservative figure using 6 innings per start the rest of the season and no playoff appearances. Last year he had 158 innings.

 

So, those are two things to consider. But, very simply, if Estrada stays this bad and Nelson stays this good you have to make the move right after the AS break at the latest.

[Baldkin]

1) Garza has been every bit as bad as Estrada and he hasn't had the horrible luck with HRs (like the 3 run shot last night that was a foot from being foul)

2) Estrada is still striking guys out 22% of the time.

3) The walks are a bit of a concern

4) I cannot fathom him staying at a 19% HR/FB rate. The past 3 seasons it was 10.3, 10.5 and 11.9, which although it's high, is not that far from league average.

5) He won't have to face Giancarlo Stanton again this year (hopefully), who hit 2 mammoth bombs off Marco.

 

Anyway, that's me playing devils advocate.

 

I just don't see the value in changing things up when the team is still carrying dead weight Wang in the bullpen.

[Bombers]

1) Garza has been every bit as bad as Estrada and he hasn't had the horrible luck with HRs (like the 3 run shot last night that was a foot from being foul)

2) Estrada is still striking guys out 22% of the time.

3) The walks are a bit of a concern

4) I cannot fathom him staying at a 19% HR/FB rate. The past 3 seasons it was 10.3, 10.5 and 11.9, which although it's high, is not that far from league average.

5) He won't have to face Giancarlo Stanton again this year (hopefully), who hit 2 mammoth bombs off Marco.

 

Anyway, that's me playing devils advocate.

 

I just don't see the value in changing things up when the team is still carrying dead weight Wang in the bullpen.

 

I agree with this. I know in my playing devils advocate, I ignore age, stuff, and track record (as TLB said) - but that's the point. The poster focused on ERA and the number of homeruns he has given up. Well I can play that game too. I can throw together some "stats" and ignore the rest. I guess for me I am on board with what Baldkin is saying. His HR / FB % will go down. His ERA will hover around 4. For me, he is a fine #5.

[danzig6767]

1) Garza has been every bit as bad as Estrada and he hasn't had the horrible luck with HRs (like the 3 run shot last night that was a foot from being foul)

2) Estrada is still striking guys out 22% of the time.

3) The walks are a bit of a concern

4) I cannot fathom him staying at a 19% HR/FB rate. The past 3 seasons it was 10.3, 10.5 and 11.9, which although it's high, is not that far from league average.

5) He won't have to face Giancarlo Stanton again this year (hopefully), who hit 2 mammoth bombs off Marco.

 

Anyway, that's me playing devils advocate.

 

I just don't see the value in changing things up when the team is still carrying dead weight Wang in the bullpen.

 

In general i agree with. For as many positives Marco has, he has enough negatives via home runs/ability to stay healthy that in the end, he very well could lack the skillset to bring enough in a trade for it to be worth trading him.

 

That said, it's easy to see why he serves up so many home runs. His fastball has zero movement and is only around 88-89 mph, so when he leaves it right over the plate, it's a power hitters wet dream pitch. IMO it's all about him keeping his WHIP low so that when he does leave one of those meatballs right over the plate which ends up in the gap or over the fence, there aren't multiple baserunners on.

 

Estrada reminds me a bit of better version of former Brewer Dave Bush. When going well they would limit baserunners, but the mediocre fastball always left them prone to a ball getting absolutely crushed. The main difference between the two was Marco had a better K rate.

[homer]

He had a bad month. April he was lights out. Let's see what the rest of the month has to offer before even entertaining a change.

[SoupTown]

Marco is scuffling with too many walks. I don't mind his homers if they are solo shots and the rest of the time not many people are on base. The next month (as homer says) will be the telling factor.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Nelson wasn't banging down the door, sure you hang with Estrada longer. But the issue is going forward, do you want a guy pitching every 5th day with great stuff (Nelson) who's ready to be a major league pitcher or a journeyman starter who's struggling of late and who even on days when he's cruising along can suddenly turn a one run lead or a tie game into a deficit with a fat, straight fastball?

 

Dave Bush pitched his way out of the major leagues because he couldn't keep the ball in the park. The rate Estrada is allowing them this year isn't just bad, it's historic. It's the suddenness with which guys like Bush and Estrada give up runs that puts teams in a bind. Generally a guy will show signs he's ready to come out of a game and you can have somebody up and ready. With Estrada, he'll look fine one minute, then boom. A slugging percentage against that's exactly 100 points higher than league average (.489 to .398) doesn't cut it.

 

I say give Marco anywhere from 2-4 more starts. If he's still allowing 1-2 HR in each of those starts, pull the plug.

[BallFour]

I say give Marco anywhere from 2-4 more starts. If he's still allowing 1-2 HR in each of those starts, pull the plug.

 

Ditto and its not like you are using a year of service time on Nelson with this year if you bring him up. IMO it is time to see what Nelson's got he has a chance to be a long term solution in the rotation and who knows if he proves himself you may have more flexibility with Gallardo in the offseason whether by trade or not picking up that option, if Nelson proves himself worthy. What is the risk in giving him a rotation spot if he may be one of your best 5 starters? None at this point especially if Marco keeps giving up the long ball and is struggling with command.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just posted in the IGT on Estrada. You don't replace Estrada until his ERA climbs above 4.5 on the season. Though Estrada is allowing more BBs recently so that trend could also dictate giving Nelson the call. I think Milwaukee keeps Estrada up until he's traded later on. Philly or San Diego appear to be fits currently with their records/home parks. I could see swapping Estrada for a Bench player+C prospect given that Estrada can start for those two teams next season.

 

 

4.5 is just an arbitrary figure. If you believe Nelson is better, does it really matter if he manages to hold is ERA at 4.3 as opposed to 4.5?

 

And I just don't see why either Philly or SD would want Estrada. Philly plays in a sandbox and is 9 games under .500 in a tough division. There doesn't seem to be any match there.

 

SD plays in a hitters park, but why would they want a 31 year old back of the rotation starting pitcher? I think you can get either the bench player OR the C prospect for Estrada, maybe a little more(C+ prospect) from a team like the Yankees who might need a guy for a month because of injuries.

 

SD is a notorious Pitchers ballpark. And they have what? Like 4 of their young SPs on the DL with TJ? Again Estrada becomes an arm(perfectly suited for 1year) to get them through these injuries and at the worst he winds up in their bullpen or traded away again.

 

About Philly and wanting Estrada? Well they can certainly pick up Burnett's option with Lee/Hamels that gives them a 3man rotation. Their #4/5 starters Kendrick and Roberto Hernandez are Free Agents after this season. Seems to me Philly could use filling out a rotation for next season. Heck maybe even just to get through this season.

 

When your teams not in contention a back end guy like Estrada who you can have for insurance for next year as well has to be valuable. Like I said before he goes 6ip(in these pitcher's parks maybe 6.1-6.2ip) Gives up 3-4runs so keeps the team in the ballgame. He has to be a better option than what Philly and SD are tossing out for their #5s today. What's Estrada going to cost next season? 6mil? 7mil? So the back end price is right too. That's why he's a good fit for both ballclubs. Now, I don't know who we can grab from them in return. It appears pretty bleak looking for the C prospect or the bench player. San Diego is the best fit.

Between Carlos Quentin/Yonder Alonso/Seth Smith bench guys or maybe a Jesse Hahn or Cory Spangenberg.

[HiAndTight]

SD is a notorious Pitchers ballpark. And they have what? Like 4 of their young SPs on the DL with TJ? Again Estrada becomes an arm(perfectly suited for 1year) to get them through these injuries and at the worst he winds up in their bullpen or traded away again.

 

I don't know if 4 of their young pitchers are on the DL with TJ. You tell me, you're making the argument. I know Kelly had it last year, and Josh Johnson and Jason Marquis have had it this year(hardly young pitchers). But even still, their 5 starters may well be better than Estrada still. His FIP is lower than any of the 5 starters for the Padres.

 

But more importantly, do you think that SD is going to win this year? I don't. You must if you think they would want to trade for Estada.

About Philly and wanting Estrada? Well they can certainly pick up Burnett's option with Lee/Hamels that gives them a 3man rotation. Their #4/5 starters Kendrick and Roberto Hernandez are Free Agents after this season. Seems to me Philly could use filling out a rotation for next season. Heck maybe even just to get through this season.

 

The Phillies could do a lot of things. I don't see why they're adding a pitcher and giving up anything(you believe he could net a legit 1B/3B prospect as you've said in other threads) this year when they're one of the few teams that are likely out of it when they could just go out and pick up a #5 pitcher next year.

 

When your teams not in contention a back end guy like Estrada who you can have for insurance for next year as well has to be valuable. Like I said before he goes 6ip(in these pitcher's parks maybe 6.1-6.2ip) Gives up 3-4runs so keeps the team in the ballgame. He has to be a better option than what Philly and SD are tossing out for their #5s today. What's Estrada going to cost next season? 6mil? 7mil? So the back end price is right too. That's why he's a good fit for both ballclubs. Now, I don't know who we can grab from them in return. It appears pretty bleak looking for the C prospect or the bench player. San Diego is the best fit.

Between Carlos Quentin/Yonder Alonso/Seth Smith bench guys or maybe a Jesse Hahn or Cory Spangenberg.

 

Philly is as much of a pitchers park as Petco is a hitters park. And I just don't see him being valuable to a team that's out of it already because he might be able to be their #5 pitcher the next year when maybe they might be a contending team.

 

Don't you think they have a little bit more to worry about than who may or may not be their 5th starter after their done losing this year? Especially if Estrada might not be good enough to be their 5th starters right now and he's insurance as you put it, for next years team.

 

Sorry, I just don't see Estrada having any trade value, I don't think many teams are going to want to trade for him, and I don't think any that are out of it this year are looking at a guy who's going to be 32 and can't break a mirror with his fastball to start for them in the future. We just don't and won't agree on this regardless of where it's posted.

[brewcrewdue80]

H&T

You seem to think trading "for" Estrada is a move to win. It's not a move to win for either Philly/SD. They're losers.

The idea is to provide depth under both current team's situation at the cost of a FA to be Bench player(ie selling) or a C prospect that may or may never make the Majors. Trading that prospect for 1+seasons of Estrada.

This entire discussion is about Nelson taking over Estrada's spot. Rather than just put Estrada in the bullpen you trade him to make the roster spot for Nelson. If it's adding a bench player that player likely means waiving one of our weak bench players.

 

I did suggest he can net a decent 1b/3b prospect but his recent starts aren't helping his value. The HRs are fine so long as he's not walking guys like he has done lately.

The whole point in trading Estrada is you're just not trading him to a winning a team. He's going to be a move to a losing team that has use for him next season at the back end of their staff and also to get through this season w/o burning in to Prospects service time who aren't ready.