2014 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[TooLiveBrew]

I apologize if this has already been posted.

...

 

Now, I'm still very much an amateur pitching mechanics analyst (a rank amateur in fact)

Dude. Keep posts like this coming. Great insight.

 

 

I don't get paid to analyze pitching mechanics, so I'm not a professional. I'm just getting started breaking down mechanics, in fact. But, we all have to start somewhere.

 

Would it be fair to say that you're not a professional pitching mechanics analyst either, and that you have the same uncertainty about Medeiros' mechanics as I do? Because your reply, while not only sarcastic, makes it seem like you have some matter of authority on this subject, and if that's the case, I'd be happy to hear it.

Sorry I came across as sarcastic to you... I was being serious

 

I just thought it was kinda funny that you wrote yourself off as not that sharp, & followed it up with a great post.

[igor67]

I'd much rather take a flier on super athletic types after the first round, so I'm happy with the Harrison pick.

[reillymcshane]

John Sickels comments on the Brewer draft. Nothing shocking. I like the line: "This is the kind of draft that can make a farm system. It can also break it.":

 

COMMENT: After being criticized for years of conservative college-tinted drafting, the Brewers switch gears to a high-reward, high-risk approach with the top rounds this year. Medeiros has an unusual low-angle arm slot but also hits 95 on his best days and has a nasty slider and changeup. Gatewood and Harrison were two of the most tooled-up preps in the draft. Gatewood has enormous power but opinions differ on how often he can get to it in pro ball. Harrison could develop into Andrew McCutchen. . .or Bubba Starling. Cheap but productive college seniors in middle rounds like Dustin DeMuth ( 3B, Indiana, 5th round) and Javi Salas (RHP, Miami Hurricanes, 10th round) enable the overslot bonuses at the top to fit into the budget. Not to be ignored: sixth rounder David Burkhalter, a highly-projectable high school arm from Louisiana. This is the kind of draft that can make a farm system. It can also break it, and the history of similar all-upside strategies by other teams in previous years shows that there is no guarantee here.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/6/10/5793576/2014-mlb-draft-national-league-central-analysis

[Mass Haas]

Q&A: Calvert Hall Outfielder Troy Stokes Jr.

[Mass Haas]

@JonathanMayoB3

 

It's been reported that Brewers signed 3rd-rder Cy Sneed. Bonus was 400K; pick value (No. 85) was $641,800.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Going to file this tidbit from today's Keith Law chat away, and hopefully beat him over the head with it a few years down the road...interesting in that most of his responses to long-winded chat questions are barely a sentence, but when given the opportunity to get a dig in at the Brewers' F.O. he turns a question about one kid that needs a very specific answer into a discussion on the whole Brewers' draft.

 

also having a hard time understanding how a player who likely has the best set of natural athletic tools in the whole draft has a ceiling of being just above average - I wonder what his answer would've been had the Red Sox drafted Harrison.

 

Tony (Alabama)

What do you see the ceiling as for Monte Harrison?

 

Klaw

(1:34 PM)

Above-average regular in RF. Floor is that he never gets out of A-ball, though. The Brewers took too many of those kids in this draft, and not enough probability for me.

[TheCrew07]

Maybe he just likes getting brewerfan's feathers ruffled every time he talks about one of our guys?

[Kelbysdaddy]

Keith law is an idiot. You have to take everything he says with a grain of salt.

[sargennm]

Going to file this tidbit from today's Keith Law chat away, and hopefully beat him over the head with it a few years down the road...interesting in that most of his responses to long-winded chat questions are barely a sentence, but when given the opportunity to get a dig in at the Brewers' F.O. he turns a question about one kid that needs a very specific answer into a discussion on the whole Brewers' draft.

 

also having a hard time understanding how a player who likely has the best set of natural athletic tools in the whole draft has a ceiling of being just above average - I wonder what his answer would've been had the Red Sox drafted Harrison.

 

Tony (Alabama)

What do you see the ceiling as for Monte Harrison?

 

Klaw

(1:34 PM)

Above-average regular in RF. Floor is that he never gets out of A-ball, though. The Brewers took too many of those kids in this draft, and not enough probability for me.

 

Law can be a tool but I don't see a problem with his comment other than he didn't give anything to back up his projection. He may really believe that's the ceiling for him, and that's fine. Wouldn't that be the floor for all the HS guys they took and most HS players that get drafted?

[SRB]

ESPN should not have such an opinionated (arguably biased) pundit discussing prospects. Yes, everyone is entitled to an opinion, but given the media reach of the Evil Empire you will now have legions of Brewers fans who don't know any better and are convinced that the Brewers had a mediocre draft or that the front office doesn't know what they're doing. Same issue with pundits like Buster Olney working people up into a fervor over Braun.

 

Just do your job, report on the player's tools and what actual scouts have told you, and stop trying to make it about yourself with digs at players/organizations with every response you give. I've said it before but other prospect talking heads like Jim Callis or John Manuel (not to mention more in-depth prospect coverage sites like PG) are much better at this and much more professional, like actual journalists. There are inherent limitations to scouting. There are substantially larger inherent limitations when you aren't actually scouting but are just consolidating what you've heard from others or seen in brief snippets. You are not smarter than the MLB front office(s).

[splitterpfj]

Law is right on Harrison's floor, almost any HS kid could not make it out of A ball, but he's wrong on Harrison's ceiling. Harrison has a chance to play at an All-Star level in the major leagues.

 

Monte is a project, because he never focused solely on baseball, but he's also a stud because he never focused solely on baseball. He's my favorite Brewers draft pick in years, even if he doesn't make it, I love the selection.

[Thundercat32]

Would it be fair to say that you're not a professional pitching mechanics analyst either, and that you have the same uncertainty about Medeiros' mechanics as I do? Because your reply, while not only sarcastic, makes it seem like you have some matter of authority on this subject, and if that's the case, I'd be happy to hear it.

Sorry I came across as sarcastic to you... I was being serious

 

I just thought it was kinda funny that you wrote yourself off as not that sharp, & followed it up with a great post.

 

 

Wow. My bad TLB. I thought you were trying to say something to the effect of why should I listen to you, you're not a professional pitching coach? Really sorry that I took your post the wrong way.

 

It's funny too because opinions on pitching mechanics vary. Two guys who I both respect differ on Yovani Gallardo's mechanics. One feels that his mechanics are very poor & the other thinks they're just fine, borderline good. To some degree it's a matter of what you emphasize. That's another thing that makes me happy with the Medeiros' pick. The Brewers teach this exaggerated spine tilt method where a pitcher's arm reaches up as high as it can to get on top of the ball & create as much downward plane on the baseball as possible. The benefits: you miss up & down in the zone & don't miss inside or outside nearly as much. You create more groundballs. The drawbacks: It's very difficult to repeat consistently. It decreases release distance & it's a precursor for shoulder injuries. So, I was really happy the Brewers were taking a kid that they (hopefully) won't be able to put into their pitching model. His delivery is so unique, so funky, I think they're just gonna have to let him be who he is.

 

Really glad that I was mistaken about your earlier post. I was actually kinda bummed because the quality of posting in this thread has been really, really good. And that's not empty applause. I spend a lot of time on different websites & forums, and you guys really know your stuff in here. It's a pleasure to be part of this forum.

 

 

Edit: Oh yeah, I meant to cite the Medeiros pick against Tyler Beede too. See the Beede pick would make me nervous, because he has had issues with his delivery & with his control. I think the Brewers would try to mold him into one of their guys with this exaggerated spine tilt. Actually here are some images of "the Brewer Lean" courtesy of Doug Thorburn from Baseball Prospectus (taken from the SP guide produced by Doug Thorburn & Paul Sporer, something that I recommend everyone interested in knowing starting pitchers better picks up. It's only $18)

 

Yovani Gallardo's Spine Tilt

 

http://i126.photobucket.com/albums/p103/Thundercat32/YovaniGallardoSpineTilt.png

 

 

Wily Peralta's Spine Tilt

 

http://i126.photobucket.com/albums/p103/Thundercat32/WilyPeraltaSpineTilt.png

 

 

Marco Estrada's Spine Tilt

 

http://i126.photobucket.com/albums/p103/Thundercat32/MarcoEstradaSpineTilt.png

 

 

Tyler Thornburg's Spine Tilt

 

http://i126.photobucket.com/albums/p103/Thundercat32/TylerThornburgSpineTilt.png

 

 

See the head isn't suppose to be tilted so far away from the body at release point. Gallardo's head is tilted so far towards first base that he could probably read signs from the Brewers' dugout (Wrigley Field one of the few parks where the home team's dugout is along the 3rd base side). I'm almost certain that the Brewers would of had Beede doing this same thing. Which doesn't mean that they'd "ruin" him necessarily, but I think this type of delivery limits a pitcher's upside. You can be successful with it, Yo has, but it's far from the optimal delivery from what I've seen. Definitely happy that we took Medeiros. I don't think the Brewers can mold him into an exaggerated spine tilt delivery clone. Hopefully they don't try that, anways.

 

For perspective this is what an ideal posture looks like at release point. From a pitcher that Medeiros has been compared to Chris Sale (granted Sale has his own problems in his delivery just not with posture or release point).

 

Chris Sale at Release Point

 

http://i126.photobucket.com/albums/p103/Thundercat32/ChrisSalePosture.png

 

 

For comparison's sake, here is Clayton Kershaw at Release Point. This would be considered average posture at release point.

 

http://i126.photobucket.com/albums/p103/Thundercat32/KershawPosture.png

[Eye Black]

Thundercat- Your posts on pitching mechanics are phenomenal. I am with TLB, please keep them coming! They probably even warrant a separate Brewers pitching mechanics thread altogether. You may call yourself an amateur, but I would certainly nominate you as our resident pitch mechanics expert.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thundercat- Your posts on pitching mechanics are phenomenal. I am with TLB, please keep them coming! They probably even warrant a separate Brewers pitching mechanics thread altogether. You may call yourself an amateur, but I would certainly nominate you as our resident pitch mechanics expert.

This! Thundercat, keep up your enthusiasm. Good stuff.

 

And if you (or anyone) hasn't checked out Chris O'Leary's site, you'd probably enjoy it. He looks at swing mechanics in addition to pitching mechanics.

[Thundercat32]

Thundercat- Your posts on pitching mechanics are phenomenal. I am with TLB, please keep them coming! They probably even warrant a separate Brewers pitching mechanics thread altogether. You may call yourself an amateur, but I would certainly nominate you as our resident pitch mechanics expert.

 

 

Thanks EB@N. I can't take credit for the Brewer Lean observation that was Doug Thorburn all the way. I've been a big follower of the podcast he does with Paul Sporer at Baseball Prospectus called TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Podcast). They only put out podcasts every 2-3 weeks or so, but their podcasts are usually 2 hours plus & filled with great content. Here's a link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/blog/TINSTAAPP/ (you can also find them on Itunes if you search for TINSTAAPP, which their latest episodes only seem to be available there). Oh & I recommend episode 19 in particular because they break down all of the prospects that many of us aren't real familiar with. Guys that are just now coming up your Kevin Gausman, Eddie Butler types & guys still on their way Noah Syndergaard, Archie Bradley, Jonathan Gray types.

 

The Medeiros to Bumgarner comparison was my own brain child, but I'm actually hoping that Doug replies to a tweet I sent him, so I can get his opinion on how concerning Medeiros' elbow drag is. Initially Doug gave Medeiros favorable grades on his mechanics, so that's encouraging.

 

I play a lot of fantasy baseball, so I find it really helpful to scout the newer pitchers. Guys with small sample sizes where I may not be able to discern anything valuable from their stats. Recently, I watched Jesse Hahn's MLB debut vs the Pirates. I'm glad I did for two reasons. First, just judging from the box score you'd think he was terrible (3.2 ip 4 ER 6 H 2 BB 5 Ks & 2 HR allowed). Hahn actually pitched well I thought. Neil Walker took a curveball that was located low & away to the opposite field & just over the left center wall. That was just an amazing piece of hitting. There's no way to hold that against Hahn. Hahn's curve is legit with sharp 12-6 drop, and his 2-seam fastball has good life to it. He'll induce a lot of groundballs with that 2-seamer. The other reason is with the combination of researching Hahn that day & never having seen him pitch before, something just clicked when I watched him. I was able to recognize his 2 seam fastball from his 4 seam fastball. Also, probably I've just watched enough pitchers now that I'm starting to pick up on little things like that, but it was a cool moment for me.

 

Usually, I scout the new SPs because that gives me the biggest edge over my opponents. I can post that stuff here if you guys are interested. Or maybe I could look at some of the Brewers' arms & put something together if there's more interest in that. Thanks again for the kind words EB@N.

[SRB]

Between Medeiros's unique delivery and the fact that he does long-toss warmups/workouts (a strangely controversial issue in MLB, it seems), I hope they don't try to mess with him too much. Based on no evidence in particular, I've long worried that the Brewers think they are being clever by tinkering with pitchers to avoid injuries or whatever (which, granted, it seems they have been quite successful at) while missing the bigger picture and decreasing pitchers' upside.

[Eye Black]

Going to file this tidbit from today's Keith Law chat away, and hopefully beat him over the head with it a few years down the road...interesting in that most of his responses to long-winded chat questions are barely a sentence, but when given the opportunity to get a dig in at the Brewers' F.O. he turns a question about one kid that needs a very specific answer into a discussion on the whole Brewers' draft.

 

also having a hard time understanding how a player who likely has the best set of natural athletic tools in the whole draft has a ceiling of being just above average - I wonder what his answer would've been had the Red Sox drafted Harrison.

 

Tony (Alabama)

What do you see the ceiling as for Monte Harrison?

 

Klaw

(1:34 PM)

Above-average regular in RF. Floor is that he never gets out of A-ball, though. The Brewers took too many of those kids in this draft, and not enough probability for me.

That is nothing, if you really want to get riled up over Law's draft commentary regarding the Brewers, go listen to the 7:00 minute mark of the June 6th ESPN Tonight Podcast with Buster Olney. I typically never listen to this podcast because it really isn't very good from past experience, but I couldn't help myself after the first day of the draft with knowing they would have Law on discussing the draft. After he applauded the Indians for having the best first day of the draft, he listed Milwaukee as the "most interesting" first day (and he didn't mean interesting in a good way). He went on about how they reached for Medeiros at #12, but then he actually continued to say near the end of his statement that, "they reached and I felt that they did the same thing with their later picks as well". I was so baffled when I heard him say this I had to go back and listen to it a few times. Remember, this podcast was recorded after the first day, so that statement is directed at the Gatewood and Harrison picks. Okay if you want to say the Brewers reached for Medeiros, I get it, but to say they reached for Gatewood and Harrison is just crazy. These are the same players that I believe he had ranked in his own top 20. For the life of me I can't figure out how either of those picks is considered a reach?

[narwhalattack]

Harrison to Brewers- Meh

 

Harrison to Red Sox/Yankees- "OMG FUTURE HOFer <3"

 

#LawLogic

[Fear The Chorizo]

I just find it ironic that Law was always first to criticize the Brewers for going too safe in recent drafts (admittedly correct analysis), then with the Brewers already having a farm system full of limited upside roster filler they go with boom/bust type players with high ceilings and high risk, and he criticizes them for not going safe enough.

 

He's correct on a highschool prospect's floor being not getting out of single A...but that's pretty much the floor of 90% of the players drafted. I think he's way off thinking Harrison's ceiling (best case scenario) is as an above average ML regular. To me that's the likely outcome of a guy with his athletic abilities being allowed to focus on baseball for the first time. The ceiling for him is franchise cornerstone, IMO.

[SRB]

I just find it ironic that Law was always first to criticize the Brewers for going too safe in recent drafts (admittedly correct analysis), then with the Brewers already having a farm system full of limited upside roster filler they go with boom/bust type players with high ceilings and high risk, and he criticizes them for not going safe enough.

 

He's correct on a highschool prospect's floor being not getting out of single A...but that's pretty much the floor of 90% of the players drafted. I think he's way off thinking Harrison's ceiling (best case scenario) is as an above average ML regular. To me that's the likely outcome of a guy with his athletic abilities being allowed to focus on baseball for the first time. The ceiling for him is franchise cornerstone, IMO.

 

Agreed. I mean, the chance of him reaching that is one thing, but how can one possibly argue that the best athlete in the draft class (with a modicum of talent for baseball) does not have a huge ceiling? Nobody knows what Harrison is actually going to do down the line, but what we do know is that coming out of high school his physical tools are ridiculous.

 

Here's some more Keith Law hypocrisy from a couple years ago. Reminded of this because I believe it was John Manuel in a BA podcast who suggested that one of the reasons Harrison might have fallen is that his athleticism-over-polish profile reminded teams of Bubba Starling (who burned the Royals in 2011):

 

Q: Whats Bubba Starling's ceiling and ETA to the majors. Klaw?

 

KL: Starling's got best-in-the-league ceiling, but is probably four good years away from being a big league regular.

 

I guess a raw high school kid with amazing athleticism has best-in-the-league ceiling if he's on the Royals, but a slightly-above-average ceiling if he's on the Brewers... (And yeah, maybe Starling was a more highly regarded athlete at the time, but still)

[Thundercat32]

Between Medeiros's unique delivery and the fact that he does long-toss warmups/workouts (a strangely controversial issue in MLB, it seems), I hope they don't try to mess with him too much. Based on no evidence in particular, I've long worried that the Brewers think they are being clever by tinkering with pitchers to avoid injuries or whatever (which, granted, it seems they have been quite successful at) while missing the bigger picture and decreasing pitchers' upside.

 

You make a great point SRB. I'm certainly not privy to any inter-office memos in the Brewers' front office, so they always have to be given the benefit of the doubt because they have more information than we do. However, the spine tilt delivery is real & that's something we can garner just by watching the games. I think there are other tendencies than can be picked up as well i.e. shifting too much (or not), etc.

 

Maybe, I'm alone in this boat (I don't think I am but maybe), but I think the Brewers have to play a high reward, high risk game in player acquisition. That's the single most exciting aspect of this year's draft to me. Our top 3 picks all have All Star ceilings & an above average amount of risk associated with them for players taken in the top 50 selections. That's perfect! I've been really nervous the past 2 plus years that Attanasio & Melvin were going to play this patch work game of going out & signing the Kyle Lohses, Matt Garzas, & Lyle Overbays of the world every off-season in an effort to keep the team just interesting enough to keep the turnstiles moving.

 

Granted the Brewers excel at that & even in the draft you need to pick up value every chance you get with guys like Dustin DeMuth. Still, championships aren't won by limiting upside. This is an exciting time to be a Brewers' fan. I haven't read, but I'm sure Mitch Haniger has gotten a lot of love on this forum (and rightfully so). You couple him with our young guys at the major league level already, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, Khris Davis, Jean Segura, and to a lesser extent Scooter Gennett, Wily Peralta, & Jimmy Nelson who's a strong bullpen arm at the very worst, and you have a formidable team emerging.

 

I hope the Brewers can streamline their organizational philosophy towards this direction & not limit the incredible amount of upside that already exists here.

[TooLiveBrew]

Harrison to Brewers- Meh

 

Harrison to Red Sox/Yankees- "OMG FUTURE HOFer <3"

 

#LawLogic

#Lawgic

[BrewersAA]

You make a great point SRB. I'm certainly not privy to any inter-office memos in the Brewers' front office, so they always have to be given the benefit of the doubt because they have more information than we do. However, the spine tilt delivery is real & that's something we can garner just by watching the games. I think there are other tendencies than can be picked up as well i.e. shifting too much

 

The brewers spine tilt is 100% definitely for real. There is no question. My buddy just looked at me in awe last year when I was trying to explain it to him what was wrong with peralta (I had never heard the actual term and I also thought it was a different problem, but after your post I clearly see what I was explaining was caused by the spine tilt). Just when willy was looking so bad that it was getting ugly, before his turn around, my buddy was like, " dude I thought you said this guy was going to be a stud." So I turned on the mlbtv package and start going through and showing him that willies delivery was all screwed up, I pulled up one good start and said focus on willies right foot, we did and on most deliveries his toes was just short of dragging across the mound as he finished his torque, he was landing mostly balanced and had decent control. Then we put on the game that he just got shelled ( I do t remember but it was like 7 er in 3 innings, cincyi think) and it was his third bad start in a row, and said watch his foot again this time it was following 6 or more inches in the air, and willie was dramatically falling off the the first base side. We watch several pitches focusing on this and everytime he didn't keep the foot down he was nearly falling down after his torque and release and was missing his spot horribly. One in every 4-5 he would keep the foot down and he would hit his spot. Finally there was a visit to the mound and I said "thank god they finally noticed he's not balanced, but they did nothing to fix it in that game of the next few, but then Eventually he started keeping the foot down and literally the rest is history, the guy is a frontline starter (not a legit ace, but frontline forsure). Gallardo had this same problem on and off last year was well, but not as obvious or dramatic as peralta. To me it just seemed like such an easy fix and I did t understand how the brewers did t see it, and gallardo hasn't always done it btw, it's just the last 2-3 seasons, he used to almost jump forward toward the plate after his release and he only recently started falling off to first. I would be interested in learning more about the brewers spine tilt, because the shot you showed looked like the exact cause of both pitchers struggles. Not that's it's the lean itself, buts it's causing them to, at times be off balance through the stride and I see it every time it happens, that foot starts pulling higher and higher and in the post game we just read "didn't have his best stuff today." I'm going to have to start watching Marco now cause I did not see it in him last season and I have seen many of his starts this year or even thought to look for it.

 

Sorry for rambling, but I spotted this as a big problem with our pitchers consistency and I am blown away to learn that it's being taught.

 

Also excuse typos and random punctuation ... iPhone

[Eye Black]

Thanks EB@N. I can't take credit for the Brewer Lean observation that was Doug Thorburn all the way. I've been a big follower of the podcast he does with Paul Sporer at Baseball Prospectus called TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Podcast). They only put out podcasts every 2-3 weeks or so, but their podcasts are usually 2 hours plus & filled with great content. Here's a link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/blog/TINSTAAPP/ (you can also find them on Itunes if you search for TINSTAAPP, which their latest episodes only seem to be available there). Oh & I recommend episode 19 in particular because they break down all of the prospects that many of us aren't real familiar with. Guys that are just now coming up your Kevin Gausman, Eddie Butler types & guys still on their way Noah Syndergaard, Archie Bradley, Jonathan Gray types.

I am actually a BP subscriber, but have only recently begun paying more attention to Doug Thorburn's articles. I will definitely add the TINSTAAPP podcast to my commute rotation.

 

Ironically Thorburn broke down Kodi Medeiros' mechanics in a BP article today. It is a subscriber piece, but it is quite glowing in terms of his overall mechanics. He mentioned that Medeiros has vertical balance that is better than an average MLB pitcher right now. I won't post it all, but here are some other great lines from the piece:

 

Medeiros has an excellent blend of stability and power, generating strong momentum in his delivery while maintaining a head position that is steady above his center-of-mass. He directs his energy on an efficient line to the plate, as evidenced by a continued progression of momentum toward the target during his follow-through, and his pattern of lift and stride draws comparisons to Yu Darvish.

 

I think the Brewers made an astute pick when they nabbed Medeiros at no. 12 overall, but the selection raised eyebrows considering that the southpaw's motion goes against the organizational trends displayed by the pitchers in their system.

 

Such a dramatic change of approach could be disastrous for Medeiros' development path, so here's hoping that Milwaukee holds course and lets him stick with the delivery that made him worthy of such a high draft pick.

[logan82]

Two guys who I both respect differ on Yovani Gallardo's mechanics. One feels that his mechanics are very poor & the other thinks they're just fine, borderline good.

Is this his current pitching mechanics? I believe Gallardo has changed his pitching mechanics since his knee injury. Before that he was thought to have really good mechanics.