2014 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[colbyjack]

I wanted to do some quick math just to show that it doesn't take a whole lot of creativity to save money with extra picks to get the big 3 in the fold.

 

Slot values:

 

12 - 2,805,700

41 - 1,384,900

50 - 1,100,300

85 - 641,800

116 - 449,300

146 - 336,400

176 - 251,900

206 - 188,800

236 - 159,100

266 - 148,700

296 - 138,700

 

First of all, the value for their rounds 7-10 picks are collectively worth $635,300. I bet they get those 4 guys signed for $135,300 or less, instantly giving the team $500,000 to work with.

 

I think Medeiros will sign for less than slot. For now I'll say $2M. Not because I think that's what he'll sign for, but just for the sake of this exercise. That's a savings of $805,700.

 

I think Sneed, DeMuth and Burkhalter will sign for less than their slots. I went with $500,000 for Sneed and rounded down to the nearest $100,000 for the other two, giving an extra $230,100.

 

That's a total of $1,535,800.

 

If it takes $2M to sign Harrison (and if I had to guess they'll get him for around $1.8M) they'll need just under $900,000 of that total to make that happen.

 

Which leaves $636,100, which when added to the value for the slot that Gatewood was taken at would put his bonus just over $2M (I think he and Harrison will get similar deals). All done without any penalties.

 

I think in the end Kodi gets somewhere in the $2.2-2.4 M range and both Harrison and Gatewood get around $1.8, in which the math still works.

[igor67]

Just to clarify I don't think it is likely that any of this years draftees leapfrog any of Coulter, Taylor, or Arcia. No one really thought Taylor would do what he did 2 years ago in the Pioneer League either and it really changed his prospect status. So I am willing to entertain the idea that they could make an interesting conversation by the end of the year. Gatewood in particular with a great season would have a pretty interesting argument vs. Arcia depending on how his season goes. Basically at what point on production would Gatewood's offensive potential overcome the level difference? I do have a hard time seeing anybody overtake Coulter or Taylor. Sure Coulter has defensive questions, but it's not 1997 anymore and legitimate .900+ OPS bats don't grow on trees regardless of position. With Taylor already playing well at a premium defensive position and showing the solid all around bat with more room to grow, that's just a lot of overcome in a short season of Pioneer ball. Maybe Mediros could if he dominated that league (Lefty with stuff dominates college hitters in a hitters league...). It has definitely been a long time since the minors were this much fun.

[TheCrew07]

Just to clarify I don't think it is likely that any of this years draftees leapfrog any of Coulter, Taylor, or Arcia. No one really thought Taylor would do what he did 2 years ago in the Pioneer League either and it really changed his prospect status. So I am willing to entertain the idea that they could make an interesting conversation by the end of the year. Gatewood in particular with a great season would have a pretty interesting argument vs. Arcia depending on how his season goes. Basically at what point on production would Gatewood's offensive potential overcome the level difference? I do have a hard time seeing anybody overtake Coulter or Taylor. Sure Coulter has defensive questions, but it's not 1997 anymore and legitimate .900+ OPS bats don't grow on trees regardless of position. With Taylor already playing well at a premium defensive position and showing the solid all around bat with more room to grow, that's just a lot of overcome in a short season of Pioneer ball. Maybe Mediros could if he dominated that league (Lefty with stuff dominates college hitters in a hitters league...). It has definitely been a long time since the minors were this much fun.

 

Personally I have a passing interest in R ball stats, I don't get too excited or too bent out of shape anymore regardless of production. Full season ball is what matters to me, probably because that is when I can get a real good look at the players and start to make some personal observations rather than educated guesses based on a variety scouting sources, statistical analysis, and Steve Wendt who was the Helena broadcaster for all those years.

 

I would be shocked if Gatewood starts in Helena, he seems like an AZ target to me as his swing is going to need work.

 

There are so many variables on both sides of the Gatewood vs Arcia prospect debate that it's very difficult to answer "when" I'd jump Gatewood past with the first question being is Gatewood truly a MLB SS? That's not something we can really answer until he gets to WI so with that in mind if he's in WI as a 19 year old putting up an .800 OPS while Arcia is in AA as a 20 year old putting up .700 OPS I think it's pretty much a dead heat. Some will favor Arcia holding his own at such a young age in an advanced full season league, others will favor the offensive upside of the player in A ball. I'm not sure there's a correct answer, more just a gut feeling until I get to see Gatewood play a significant amount of games. For me Gatewood would have to blow the doors off with a +.150 OPS in full season ball over Arcia before I'm jumping him but it would really depend on how well I think his hitting approach is going to translate up towards AA or if there are going to be some growing pains along the way.

 

Orlando is a toothpick compared to his brother Oswaldo, you'd hope Orlando will fit out a little bit and be able to smack double digit HRs at some point.

 

I do think the sources people look at for prospect lists (MLBpipeline, BA, BP, fangraphs) will jump Gatewood right away based on upside, but I think Arcia is a bit underrated as a prospect.

[colbyjack]

Read more about both Medeiros and the team's 12th rounder, Jordan Yamamoto, including video, from Hawaii's high school state championship as PG's Todd Gold was there:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9873

[SRB]

I wanted to do some quick math just to show that it doesn't take a whole lot of creativity to save money with extra picks to get the big 3 in the fold.

 

Slot values:

 

12 - 2,805,700

41 - 1,384,900

50 - 1,100,300

85 - 641,800

116 - 449,300

146 - 336,400

176 - 251,900

206 - 188,800

236 - 159,100

266 - 148,700

296 - 138,700

 

First of all, the value for their rounds 7-10 picks are collectively worth $635,300. I bet they get those 4 guys signed for $135,300 or less, instantly giving the team $500,000 to work with.

 

I think Medeiros will sign for less than slot. For now I'll say $2M. Not because I think that's what he'll sign for, but just for the sake of this exercise. That's a savings of $805,700.

 

I think Sneed, DeMuth and Burkhalter will sign for less than their slots. I went with $500,000 for Sneed and rounded down to the nearest $100,000 for the other two, giving an extra $230,100.

 

That's a total of $1,535,800.

 

If it takes $2M to sign Harrison (and if I had to guess they'll get him for around $1.8M) they'll need just under $900,000 of that total to make that happen.

 

Which leaves $636,100, which when added to the value for the slot that Gatewood was taken at would put his bonus just over $2M (I think he and Harrison will get similar deals). All done without any penalties.

 

I think in the end Kodi gets somewhere in the $2.2-2.4 M range and both Harrison and Gatewood get around $1.8, in which the math still works.

 

Great points. They can also spend an additional $380,000 toward bonuses if they have to while only incurring a fine (75% of the overage, so if they maxed out it would be costing them $665,000 combined, with only the first $380,00 of that going to players). Considering they are stashing an A-ball pitcher on the major league roster all season just to get some decent talent into the system, I'm guessing they would pay the extra half million if they needed to.

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers have agreed to terms with Monte Harrison...1.8M, per Jim Callis.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers have agreed to terms with Monte Harrison...1.8M, per Jim Callis.

Woohoo! And if the number is correct, colbyjack nailed that call.

[SRB]

Haha, well so much for that! This was a great draft.

[brewcrewdue80]

Nice work Crew! 1.8mil is what made sense to his rankings. The 2.5mil must have been a posturing move but yeah like mentioned, I don't get how he could pass up anything above 1mil for a signing bonus just to attend Nebraska.

 

As to the rankings, yeah I'm discussing what to expect the prospect lists to come out ranking the draft picks.

[Eye Black]

Great news on Harrison, that pretty much eliminates any concern I had about signing the top three draftees. I am really looking forward to following the development of these high ceiling prospects. Regardless of how it all works out in the long run, I am really happy the team was willing to take on the risk for an opportunity to potentially add impact talent to the system.

[yfinn6]

The Brewers have agreed to terms with Monte Harrison...1.8M, per Jim Callis.

 

Outstanding. One down, two to go!

[reillymcshane]

The Brewers have agreed to terms with Monte Harrison...1.8M, per Jim Callis.

Outstanding. Kudos to the team for taking the risk.

[SRB]

Maybe it's because I like Medeiros much more than some and think he is being underrated due to his unconventionality and his home state, but from the perspective of right after the draft (huge caveat) is this the best Brewers draft in recent memory?? They had picks 12, 41, and 50, and ended up with arguably three top-20 talents who are all likely to sign.

[Eye Black]

Nice work Crew! 1.8mil is what made sense to his rankings. The 2.5mil must have been a posturing move but yeah like mentioned, I don't get how he could pass up anything above 1mil for a signing bonus just to attend Nebraska.

$1.8 million is also the exact middle between his slot value and his reported asking price. [sarcasm]Also, he doesn't have to deal with Bo Pelini for the next 4 years, so that has to be worth something[/sarcasm].

[brewcrewdue80]

So just thinking if the 1.8mil is correct that's almost 700k over slot. So the Brewers have already signed enough of their other picks to clear 700k?

Or, is that just something they are banking on happening as they make the 10 other signings?

[colbyjack]

brewcrewdue80, read my post from the previous page on this thread. I mapped out how "easy" it could be for the Brewers to make this happen.

[SRB]

So just thinking if the 1.8mil is correct that's almost 700k over slot. So the Brewers have already signed enough of their other picks to clear 700k?

Or, is that just something they are banking on happening as they make the 10 other signings?

 

Based on who they picked it's almost a given they will make that $700k up in rounds 3-10. Even if they don't, the absolute worst case is that the Brewers go $700k over their bonus pool, get fined, and lose next year's first-round pick. But (especially with the Brewers' record so far), Monte Harrison is possibly better than who they will get next year anyways.

 

Signing him as fast as possible is huge because now they know what they have to work with and can use his figure as leverage with Medeiros/Gatewood.

[brewcrewdue80]

brewcrewdue80, read my post from the previous page on this thread. I mapped out how "easy" it could be for the Brewers to make this happen.

 

 

I looked that over. I'm just wondering out loud, if theyre 700k overslot already are there other signings already having saved money or just a matter of hammering out? Is it usual to have overslot paid pick signed prior to the signings of the underslots?

[splitterpfj]

Jacob Gatewood has agreed to terms with Milwaukee - 1.83M, per Adam McCalvy

[narwhalattack]

Wow, some quick signings going around. Didn't expect Gatewood and especially Harrison to sign that quickly.

[MillerParkSouth]

Incredible. Get Meideros signed and let's get them all started!

[jwill535]

You have to figure they wanted to get these two signed first in order to determine how aggressive they are able to be with the rest of the class.

[yfinn6]

The news of these two signings has made my (Brewer) day. The Big club now needs a W and I'll be a very content Brewer fan.

[homer]

Wow, those are the two I was worried about. This is great!

[colbyjack]

Man alive, I called both Harrison's and Gatewood's signing bonuses. If Medeiros goes for $2.4 I'll feel especially prophetic.

 

By the way, I have a source close to Medeiros and that should get that wrapped up quickly here as well. I'm sure the Brewers want to keep him stateside since he was at Day 1 of the draft. I'm going to say there's a big news conference on Monday or Tuesday here in Milwaukee...