2014 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[And That]

If you don't like college arms who project as relievers, steer clear of the Twins' draft. Wow.

[JohnBriggs12]

More up to date stats on DeMuth: .377 BA with 24 doubles and 5 HR in 244 AB's. Has one more extra base hit (30) than Schwarber (29). Of course Schwarber has him outhomered 18-5.

[TheCrew07]

Damn we missed out on Kenny Powers! I loved that show...

 

McCullough, Mason:

One area scout compared McCullough to Kenny Powers of HBO's "Eastbound & Down." Both guys can throw the ball through a brick wall, provided they can hit the wall, and both guys can get into trouble off the field. North Carolina dismissed McCullough from its program last fall for repeated violations of team rules, so he transferred to Lander, which made its first NCAA Division II College World Series appearance in 2014. McCullough has a big league body and a fastball that has been clocked as high as 100 mph, though he has yet to harness it. He walked nearly a batter per inning this spring and sometimes will work out of the stretch with no runners on base in an attempt to throw strikes. There's no finesse with McCullough, who relies heavily on throwing mid-90s heat. He'll show an interesting mid-80s slider on occasion, though he doesn't use it much. He'll almost certainly work out of the bullpen in pro ball, and he won't be more than a middle reliever unless he can make some refinements, but it's also very easy to dream on his arm strength.

[colbyjack]

And That, yes, I think DeMuth could easily handle Low A ball right now. That said, the Brewers have sent similar guys to Helena to begin their careers. DeMuth might even be able to handle High A, or at least finish the summer there.

[WV Brew]

The Rattlers do have the all-star 3B in Brennan right now. I don't see him being promoted. Therefore DeMuth should start in Helena.

[trwi7]

I'm fairly confident we won't be seeing a better name than this the rest of the draft.

 

Brock Dykxhoorn

[And That]

I'm fairly confident we won't be seeing a better name than this the rest of the draft.

 

Brock Dykxhoorn

Handsome Monica.

[WV Brew]

http://www.thenewsstar.com/article/20140531/SPORTS/305310042/Burkhalter-finishes-career-area-s-top-pitcher

 

Story on Burkhalter.

[zzzmanwitz]

We are onto round 6. Further discussion on rounds 6-20 should be posted here.

 

viewtopic.php?f=69&t=31418

[SRB]

Law isn’t impressed...http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1925

 

I reported Wednesday night that the Milwaukee Brewers were set to take Hawaii prep lefty Kodi Medeiros at No. 12 overall, but I didn't understand the pick, as Medeiros is more likely to end up a reliever instead of a starter and doesn't seem like good value there with quality college starters and nearly every good high school arm still on the board.

 

Then, at pick 41, theny took Jacob Gatewood, the Clovis, California prep shortstop who has huge raw power but a well-below-average hit tool and who'll likely move to third or right. That's decent value, but another high-risk selection. I do think two-sport athlete Monte Harrison is good value at 50, as he had first-round buzz as a very crude hitter who can run and throw and should grow into power.

 

Sorry if I'm behind in the thread, but this is so obnoxious/infuriating to me. How many times has Keith Law, professional pundit, seen Kodi Medeiros pitch in Hawaii? How many scouts could he have possibly talked to?

 

If you observe actual professional talent evaluators like Jim Callis or John Manuel, they tend not to do this holier-than-though, overly-smug "oh, that was a bad pick" nonsense because they know that it is extremely subjective and that the team scouting departments likely know way more than you do as a pundit talking to guys on your phone.

 

Honestly, Keith Law is just an idiot. He's just barely a notch about Harold Reynolds on MLB Network giving an impromptu projection for every draft pick as if he actually knows what he is talking about with this random high school player he's never heard of.

[DHonks]

just curious, but why is the arm slot such a concern about the 1st rounder? According to all these comments from "experts", Randy Johnson's arm-slot would have him pegged for LOOGY status rather than the Hall of Fame.

[3and2Fastball]

I like the DeMuth pick. Good potential there

[TheCrew07]

just curious, but why is the arm slot such a concern about the 1st rounder? According to all these comments from "experts", Randy Johnson's arm-slot would have him pegged for LOOGY status rather than the Hall of Fame.

 

Simple physics and geometry, the more geometric planes the body operates in during a pitch, the harder it is for the muscles to account for all the different movement, which makes it harder to repeat the delivery and will likely sap velocity and command. Since there's not much fixing of mechanics I prefer athletic pitchers who's can more easily compensate and throw strikes.

 

Think of it like this, how many starting pitchers are there in the majors who fall off incredibly hard to one side of the mound or the other? It's the most complicated delivery possible because there is centrifugal force acting away from home plate so not only do the muscles have to account for the arm motion they also have to account for the motion of the entire body at the same time.

 

Or the common analogy I use because most of my guys also played basketball, but what happens when you "fly" the elbow out to the side during your shot? Well you're likely going to miss right and left... Why? Because the shoulder, elbow, and wrist are no longer operating in a single plane which forces the body to compensate right & left instead of just distance on the shot.

 

That's why generally I'm not not a fan of 3/4 or lower arm slot pitchers, it's harder on the arm in the elbow area and a naturally more complicated delivery which makes it harder to repeat. Plenty of pitchers can do it and be successful but they are all very good athletes.

[Eye Black]

So as the euphoria of yesterday's first day of the MLB draft finally wore off I started to become worried about signing all three guys. I am fairly confident that Medeiros and Gatewood will be signed for somewhere in the ball park of a combined $4 million. My concern is signing Harrison who reportedly was asking for the $2.5 million range going into the draft. Hopefully that was a bluff and he can be signed for significantly less. I don't think the Brewers will be in a position to offer him $2 million or more, but I hope I am wrong and they get a deal done with Harrison in the near future.

[SRB]

So as the euphoria of yesterday's first day of the MLB draft finally wore off I started to become worried about signing all three guys. I am fairly confident that Medeiros and Gatewood will be signed for somewhere in the ball park of a combined $4 million. My concern is signing Harrison who reportedly was asking for the $2.5 million range going into the draft. Hopefully that was a bluff and he can be signed for significantly less. I don't think the Brewers will be in a position to offer him $2 million or more, but I hope I am wrong and they get a deal done with Harrison in the near future.

 

I think it's possible even if Harrison demands $2.5M (though I'm not sure if the Brewers would want to pay that regardless). If you can keep picks 1-3 in the <$6.5M range combined, then they can pick up the difference in rounds 3-10.

[homer]

Does it really matter what law thinks ?

 

 

No. Because he's wrong as often (if not more often) than he's right. See my sig.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't remember who said it but today if all three Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison are signed they believe once Nelson graduates to the team, These three will rank 1,2,3 on the team's prospects ranks. Which just goes to show how poor the system is. I said it earlier if you based off MLB's Overall Ranking of the three drafted then yes they would slot in 2,3,4 behind Nelson. All three have a 55 Overall ranking. Nelson was the only prospect in the system with a 55 ranking. Everyone else is at 50 and lower. I wouldn't be surprised if Gatewood ranked in the top 100 prospects when the season ends.

Something exciting to hear is that I guess many believe Medeiros has the ability to really fastrack through the minors. So maybe we are looking at a SP aged 20/21 joining the rotation if that happens?

As to Harrison I had no idea the rumble was he was asking 2.5mil. Can he really throw away the baseball opportunity if it's 2.1mil? He's going to be a WR. Commiting to Nebraska with Baseball still to fall back on he can't possibly count on. I can only believe he commits to the College if he honestly felt an NFL career was in his future? If he goes to College I can just see it first 2 weeks in camp torn acl followed the next season by multiple concussions and he's never the same again. Bad knee/poorer vision at the plate career over for baseball. I can understand turning down the money at 1mil(after taxes it must be like 450k) But any amount over 1mil? Not to mention if he's successful in the minors say 4 years to make the Majors he's then earning 500k+ in 4years. Or he goes to college ruins his body some, goes back in to the draft 3 years later gets picked in the 2nd rd now is paid 800k. Then proceeds in the minors for 3-4years to make the Majors. How do you ruin your opportunity like that for a few 100k? 2014:2mil plus 500k in 4years 2.5mil@2018 Or, 2014:Scholarship 2017:800k 2021:500k 1.3mil total?

 

Anyway, based on the next 8 selections with what? 1 being a top 200 prerank talent? I think the team saved themselves quite a chunk of money today. They took 4 seniors, 2 Juniors. The Burkhalter HS kid who appears ready to sign already from above. The only pick you wonder how much money is saved is Sneed in the 3rd rd. I can't wait to see how this all works out financially.

[TheCrew07]

I've had many concerns about the Brewers over the years but signing their high draft picks isn't one.

[SRB]

Does it really matter what law thinks ?

No. Because he's wrong as often (if not more often) than he's right. See my sig.

 

He's particularly good at "evaluating" pitchers. Especially LHP with low arm slots.

 

Keith, what are your thoughts on Chris Sale?

 

Klaw(1:25 PM)

 

I ranked him 47th. The White Sox took him 13th. You do the math.

 

I don’t love the arm action, but this idea that arm action guarantees injury has to die. It’s all probability, and there have been pitchers with subpar mechanics who’ve pitched in the majors for several years before getting hurt, as well as plenty of pitchers with "clean" arm actions who got hurt anyway. Back to Sale, I’m more concerned that he’s a sidearming lefty without much of a breaking ball. If you knew nothing about him but that one sentence, what would you say he was in the big leagues?

 

His arm action is ugly, long and complex in the back with a high elbow, and he drifts forward in a crouch more commonly seen on sidearmers and submariners. If I did draft him, I'd see if I could raise his slot just enough to get him better angle on the slider and get him to take advantage of his height. His current delivery, slot, and repertoire make him look a lot like a reliever to me.

 

(And yes, I know that every talent evaluator makes mistakes. The difference with Keith Law is he acts like such a pompous know-it-all about it. Most others don't do that because they know they make mistakes.)

[HiAndTight]

(And yes, I know that every talent evaluator makes mistakes. The difference with Keith Law is he acts like such a pompous know-it-all about it. Most others don't do that because they know they make mistakes.)

 

And Law continued to stand behind that through the 2011 season when he left Sale out of his top 50 players 25 years of age and younger and didn't even include him in his "honorable mention," list. Then he bashed the White Sox for making Sale a starter.

 

I haven't heard him say he's wrong to this day(perhaps he has, but I've seen several times where he stands behind his asinine comments. You're right. Guys make mistakes or Albert Pujols wouldn't have lasted 12 rounds. But I doubt after he was hitting .340 guys were STILL trying to defend that.

 

 

I don't remember who said it but today if all three Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison are signed they believe once Nelson graduates to the team, These three will rank 1,2,3 on the team's prospects ranks. Which just goes to show how poor the system is.

 

I don't think they would be the first 3 ranked players and your opinion that they would be doesn't prove that the system is poor by any means. Adam McCalvy was just on 540 today talking about the Brewers farm system and how he believed one of the main reasons it was underrated was because they don't sell their prospects to the publications doing the rankings like other teams do. They don't communicate with Baseball America, or whoever while obviously the Yankees prospects get the benefit of the doubt 99 times out of 100.

 

But given what our pitching has done this year, the progressions they've made, what Coulter has done, I don't see this system being nearly as poor as you're portraying it. And even if Kodi, Parra, Gatewood and Harrison sign, there is no way I'd move any of them above Clint Coulter, a big power hitter who can draw walks and is exceptionally talented behind the plate. Even if his receiving skills are not yet refined, he's 20 years old.

 

Not sure how a guy who came in with such acclaim and who is posting a line of roughly .290/.420/.550 and very good athleticism would be knocked off the perch by three other high school players. Forgetting Tyrone Taylor, Arcia and others.

 

Don't get me wrong, the 4 young players we're hoping to add to our system have extraordinary ceilings and they should and will be ranked highly. But I think it's about time to start giving our system a bit more credit than what some of the publications have done.

Lucroy-Never a top 100 prospect. Top 5 catcher in the game right now.

Peralta-rated somewhere in the 60's.

Davis, Gennett, Thornburg..they were afterthoughts.

Nelson was a top 100 prospect, but rated in the low 90's.

 

We're not and we have not better a top 10 or 15 system. But again, I don't believe we're one of the worst.

 

How do you ruin your opportunity like that for a few 100k? 2014:2mil plus 500k in 4years 2.5mil@2018 Or, 2014:Scholarship 2017:800k 2021:500k 1.3mil total?

 

God...you should be the guy who calls Harrison to try and talk him into signing. His future football career took a REALLY quick turn for the bad pretty quickly there. Blows out an ACL 2 weeks in, then has concussion issues and can't see straight anymore before coming back to baseball where because of the injuries he's not good at anymore! Yeah, I'd sign up for that as well!

 

But...he's a 4 star WR recruit and with his size and strength, he certainly could have an NFL future. Or maybe he just loves football more than Baseball. But hey, he can always play minor league baseball and then go back and try football in 2-3 years if he's not progressing at all. All kidding aside, that would certainly be the smarter route. He'd be older than normal by the time he entered the NFL(assuming he did become an NFL prospect) but he'd already have a couple million and would still have time to pursue an NFL career.

[igor67]

By the end of the season it might be possible for some of the top 3 picks to leap frog Coulter, Taylor, and Arcia but certainly not now. All 3 of them have substantial projection and are already producing in A ball. You need to see those tools show-up in the minors first before they can jump over players who have both tools and production. That said if Gatewood stays healthy and hits like crazy in the Pioneer league answering some of the questions about him in the process he could move past Arcia, and maybe even the other 2.

[umphrey]

By the end of the season it might be possible for some of the top 3 picks to leap frog Coulter, Taylor, and Arcia but certainly not now. All 3 of them have substantial projection and are already producing in A ball. You need to see those tools show-up in the minors first before they can jump over players who have both tools and production. That said if Gatewood stays healthy and hits like crazy in the Pioneer league answering some of the questions about him in the process he could move past Arcia, and maybe even the other 2.

 

Arcia, Coulter and Taylor all destroyed rookie ball pitching. Gatewood, Medeiros and Harrison will hopefully have similar success but that wouldn't be reason enough to pass the 3 in A ball. It would be nice to see the farm system get to the point where we have 5-8 guys in the farm system that realistically could be MLB average players or better.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not sure how a guy who came in with such acclaim and who is posting a line of roughly .290/.420/.550 and very good athleticism would be knocked off the perch by three other high school players. Forgetting Tyrone Taylor, Arcia and others.

 

Don't get me wrong, the 4 young players we're hoping to add to our system have extraordinary ceilings and they should and will be ranked highly. But I think it's about time to start giving our system a bit more credit than what some of the publications have done.

 

I think where Coulter gets knocked down in rankings is whether he stays as a Catcher. If he then moves on to 1b/3b how's his bat fit for that position? If he has to go to the OF how's his defense to play out there?

 

I like Arcia and what I've read on him. I championed against signing Segura to a guaranteed long term contract only to watch it block Arcia in 2years.

 

I guess I left the wrong impression on thinking our system is poor but in some way it is. Go look at Gregory Polanco's numbers, Springer+Singleton's numbers Kris Bryant? I could make a decent list. We have guys who will be ML contributors but not guys that will just be Carlos Gomez/Ryan Braun/Aramis Ramirez heir apparents for career approaching numbers/ability.

Now, that is different with Gatewood's ceiling. I don't know how high Harrison's ceiling is you kind of read all his tools and hope it becomes a Polanco/Taveras type OF prospect. Medeiros? Well, there's some filth in his pitching, now I don't think he should leapfrog Arcia/Jungmann and Taylor at this point but just pointing out his overall ranking would place him ahead.

Gatewood to me slots behind Nelson. I literally jumped up and down fist pumping when I heard the pick. The potential he has is elite, is Gomez/Braun/Ramirez impacting.

The prospect rankings are more in lines of ceiling vs floors which floors is what Arcia/Coulter/Taylor/Jungmann by far have shown will be higher to this point having already played in the minors. The ceiling potential on the selected 3 are higher at the moment thus making them 2,3,4 in rankings.

 

I don't know why Khris Davis/Lucroy never cracked the top 100...Age? Overall hype like now with that year's draft/the year prior slotting guys like I'm sure Aiken/Rodon/Kolek/Jackson/Nola etc say putting the top 10-15 from a draft in your top 100 yearly(Bradley anyone?) that just end up leaving a number of guys outside of the top 100. Or maybe it's just the Milwaukee disdain of the system by the rankers? Why rank a Milw prospect in the 75-100 range when you can fill in spots for the Big city East coast/West Coast teams? Bigger markets more fans to attract.

 

So the system is poor-ish lacking that high upside superior impact prospect. Man, I really wanted Roache to ascend this year as that player but it's not happening yet.

 

Gatewood is finally that kind of pick we can just really get behind and tout is in our system. Harrison/Medeiros sure I'll give you aren't deserving yet to be moved ahead of the top of our system but at 6? 8? I don't think really any lower.

[homer]

I don't see these guys leapfrogging Coulter if he keeps hitting like he is....even if he moves to 1st base. Kid is 20 years old and leads the Midwest League in Slugging Percentage.

[TheCrew07]

I think you're taking the whole MLB.com player rating thing a bit too far. High ceiling players are great, I love them in fact, but they still have to produce which is why I talked about where they would be ranked in our community top 20. I've long championed raw multi-sport athletes but Harrison just isn't polished enough to leapfrog anybody currently in our top 10. When he signs I'd expect that he'd get better very quickly and by the time he's in A or A+ sure he could be up there, but not out of the gate. I feel similarly about Gatewood, I have no problem bumping him up over someone like Bradley who's now in AA, but he's going to have to prove he can hit before he starts leapfrogging our young players who are already in A or A+ like Coulter, Arcia, and Taylor.