2014 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[jjkoestler]

Where do you think the guys drafted today slot in the Brewers prospects rankings?

[narwhalattack]

Where do you think the guys drafted today slot in the Brewers prospects rankings?

 

I doubt that they would be THAT high in the rankings because they haven't played yet.

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers took three of the top thirty players available in this draft, they have to get them signed, and they know it.

[homer]

National consensus seems to be that the Brewers killed it today but all platitudes come with the caveat that they only did well if they can sign all three guys.

[heresrobin]

I think all 3 fit into the 5-10 range.

[fondybrewfan]

Can a kid like Harrison really turn down $2 Million to go to the crap hole that is Nebraska? Take the money now kid.

[danzig6767]

So what are the rules again, if the Brewers just blow past their slot allotments?

 

Here's a quick summation, all the websites are understandably slow right now, still efforting the exact verbage.

 

Teams incur progressively steeper penalties for overspending. Exceed your designated limit by 5 percent, and you pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. As the percentage increases, offending teams could be on the hook for a 100 percent tax payment and the loss of two future first-round picks. Those penalties might be worth considering if the prize is a Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg or another once-in-a-generation prospect. But the 2012 draft is one of the weakest in recent memory, so this will not be the year.

 

If you whiff on signing a pick, you can’t use that money on other players. Last year the Blue Jays failed to sign pitcher Tyler Beede, the 21st overall pick, but spent the money budgeted for him elsewhere. If they had the same result this year, they would simply lose the allotted $1.8 million for the slot.

 

Why did they change to rule that way, strikes me as a dumb change? I can't see the logic in that.

 

As for Gatewood, in watching videos of him and reading stuff, would a good best case scenario comparison be something like Manny Machado of Baltimore?

[brewcrewdue80]

Where do you think the guys drafted today slot in the Brewers prospects rankings?

 

If you go with MLB's rankings overall All three slot in behind Nelson with Gatewood now #2, Harrison #3 and Medeiros #4.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Harrison probably could turn down $2 million because he'd project as an NFL receiver, or a top 5 MLB draft pick in 3 seasons if his bat develops to match anything close to the rest of his baseball tools. If the Brewers can get him signed along with Gatewood it's a major coup to get two 18-yr old position player prospects with their kind of ceilings in the organization during the same draft.

[fondybrewfan]

AZ with Williams, Neuhaus, Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison would be crazy exciting. Maybe Lara as well? No clue where he would slot in if signed

[fondybrewfan]

Well then back the Brinks truck up

[FVBrewerFan]

Can a kid like Harrison really turn down $2 Million to go to the crap hole that is Nebraska? Take the money now kid.

 

Get $2MM now, and $200MM+ if you're a star in MLB. Or go play WR at Nebraska where you may never be heard from again. Best case, have a much shorter NFL career and make a fraction of the money,

[TheCrew07]

The best part about Harrison (besides his talent) is that it help my other favorite team in a different sport!

 

Where do you think the guys drafted today slot in the Brewers prospects rankings?

 

Prospect wise... hmm I'd have to think on that, I'll just stream thought as I look at the Com Top 20. Gut feeling is that is Harrison is too raw to be in the top 10 based on his 3 sportedness in HS (which is a very good thing, I love 3 sport athletes)... I'd put Medeiros at #5 out of the gate and Gatewood in front of Bradley at #10. Harrison 12-14 based on raw athleticism and the ability to make quick adjustments. Harrison makes such quick adjustments that he's incredibly exciting like a Tyrone Taylor, in the mock draft I had Pitt taking him in the first round, he could move up fast.

[yfinn6]

Can a kid like Harrison really turn down $2 Million to go to the crap hole that is Nebraska? Take the money now kid.

 

Get $2MM now, and $200MM+ if you're a star in MLB. Or go play WR at Nebraska where you may never be heard from again. Best case, have a much shorter NFL career and make a fraction of the money,

 

And lose to the Badgers.

[502 to Right]

They are not signing all 3. They might not even be able to sign 2 out of 3.

[trwi7]

They are not signing all 3. They might not even be able to sign 2 out of 3.

 

Whew! Now we can all go home!

[BallFour]

Harrison is the only one I think we will have a major issue with. Gatewood has pretty much said all the right things about getting into the organization as fast as possible granted pen to paper changes everything.

[SRB]

Here's the blog post I was looking for, everything you need to know about the draft pool system:

 

Putting Draft Changes Under The Microscope

 

Perfect, thanks!

 

So the Brewers have a $7.6M aggregate bonus pool for this year's draft. If they are willing to spend a little extra via penalty tax, they can spend just under $8M without losing a pick in next year's draft. (With the penalty that would end up costing them an additional $300k, so total draft spending of $8.3M let's say).

 

The recommended slot value for #12 is $2.8M, but if we assume Medeiros will sign for a decent discount (pick-20-ish money, $2M?), then you have roughly $6M left for the next nine picks. They could give Gatewood and Harrison $1.5M each, and be left with $3M for rounds 3-10.

 

The recommended slot values are a combined $1.9M for rounds 3-4, about $590k for rounds 5-6, and about $640k for rounds 7-10. Even if they sign everybody at slot, that's only like $3.25M, so maybe $250k above what they are allotted? They can easily shave that down across round 3-10 by taking seniors and other low-leverage picks.

 

It really doesn't seem like it would be that hard to fit everything in if the above estimates are accurate. Is $1.5M for both Gatewood and Harrison implausible? $2M for Medeiros ($800k discount)?

 

*Edit* On second thought, $1.5M might be a little low, hard to say. If you give them both $2M each, you need to lose $1M somewhere in rounds 3-10. Still, not that hard to do. If they wanted the Brewers could just punt rounds 3-4 altogether basically. Get low-cost seniors there, sign them for like $400k combined, and then go through the rest of the draft picking at-slot guys. If Gatewood or Harrison want more than $2M then they were never going to sign in the first place, because nobody was going to take them top-15 without a below-slot pre-draft deal in place.

[TheCrew07]

They are not signing all 3. They might not even be able to sign 2 out of 3.

 

The Brewers have never risked drafting a player early that they weren't sure they could sign, in addition if they don't sign the player they lose all of the slot money from the pool as well. I have a good feeling about getting them all signed, even if they have to pay an overage tax to get it done.

 

They are blowing the international bonus pool on just Gilbert Lara alone who was previously discussed in the thread. With the increase in TV revenue they are wisely moving more $ towards amateur development.

[brwrsfan]

Do we really have any idea what number it will take on Gatewood or Harrison? I'm sure the Brewers do (at least I sure hope they do). I would assume they talked to them before drafting to get a pretty good idea of what it will take to sign them. Also, Gatewood (I think) attended the draft in person. I have a hard time believing he would go through all that hassle if he wasn't seriously interested in playing.

 

Like you've said, they will likely take some college seniors in the next few rounds that will sign for less than slot. Who knows, they may also take another high upside guy with signability concerns, just in case they miss out on those two.

 

So for those that follow this much more than I do. Any that's fallen that shouldn't have? Anyone I should be screaming for us to draft tomorrow?

[RockCoCougars]

The Medeiros kid looks a lot like Billy Wagner to me. I bet he couldn't throw a fastball straight if he tried, tons of movement. Slider looks filthy too.

[StearnsFTW]

Can a kid like Harrison really turn down $2 Million to go to the crap hole that is Nebraska? Take the money now kid.

 

 

Lincoln is pretty awesome.

 

I imagine it's even awesomer as a football player.

[SRB]

Do we really have any idea what number it will take on Gatewood or Harrison? I'm sure the Brewers do (at least I sure hope they do). I would assume they talked to them before drafting to get a pretty good idea of what it will take to sign them. Also, Gatewood (I think) attended the draft in person. I have a hard time believing he would go through all that hassle if he wasn't seriously interested in playing.

No idea, but at least it's not a situation where they were (widely) projected to be top-5/top-10 picks and dropped due to signability issues. Best case for both was in the $1.5-$2.5M slot range, so you would have to imagine they weren't expecting more than that. And as a result might be happy to sign for $0.5M or so below what they were hoping for.

[brewcrewdue80]

At this point Brwrsfan I don't think there needs to be another ML potential pick. Milw picked 3 1st rd talent. Do whatever it takes to get these three signed. What's the minimum required per signing? 20k? 38 more rounds so there's 760k of the 7.6mil pool. Leaving 6.85mil to sign these 3.

 

There's just not going to any more exciting picks after these 3. And I don't care. You want to draft players who will make the Majors and not just make it but also have impact. these 3 do that. Don't give me 1 impact guy 3 potential ML guys, 3 if everything goes right bench/RP guys and then 33 never heard ofs. for a draft. if you can get 3 Impact guys and 37 never heard ofs to do so.

[Fear The Chorizo]

For Harrison, the $500K extra isn't what he'd base his decision on - it's whether he starts his professional baseball career now or if the injury risk of playing football for a big time program is worth it to have a blast in college for 3 seasons and likely get drafted much higher in future MLB draft.

 

I think he knows his best sport is baseball, and I'm optimistic the Brewers find a way to sign him.