Is Bruce Seid's job on the line? (UPDATE: RIP Bruce, you will be missed -- who will be new SD?)

[princeofpop]

Is Brewers Scouting Director Bruce Seid's job on the line during this weekend's draft?

 

Given his track record, maybe it should be.

 

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Brewers last 5 drafts, top 4 rounds results

 

Round Name Position Level

 

2013

2 Devin Williams RHP HS

2A Tucker Neuhaus SS HS

3 Barrett Astin RHP COL

4 Taylor Williams RHP COL

 

2012

1 Clint Coulter C HS

1 Victor Roache OF COL

1A Mitch Haniger OF COL

2 Tyrone Taylor OF HS

3 Zach Quintana RHP HS

4 Tyler Wagner RHP COL

 

2011

1 Taylor Jungmann RHP COL

1 Jed Bradley LHP COL

2 Jorge Lopez RHP HS

3 Drew Gagnon RHP COL

4 Nick Ramirez 1B COL

 

2010

1 Dylan Covey RHP HS (did not sign)

2 Jimmy Nelson RHP COL

3 Tyler Thornburg RHP COL

4 Hunter Morris 1B COL

 

2009

1 Eric Arnett RHP COL

1A Kentrail Davis OF COL

1A Kyle Heckatorn RHP COL

2 Max Walla OF HS

2 Cameron Garfield C HS

3 Josh Prince OF COL

4 Brooks Hall RHP HS

 

In October 2008, former Brewers scouting director Jack Zduriencik took a job as the GM of the Seattle Mariners. While with Milwaukee, Jack drafted Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Jonathan Lucroy, Brett Lawrie, Yovani Gallardo and JJ Hardy between 2001-2008. This helped the Brewers make the postseason for the first time in 26 years in 2008 and the NL Championship Series in 2011.

 

However, the last 5 drafts without Jack Z have been a literal train wreak. In 2009, they missed out on the top player on their board by one pick (Mike Trout) and had to settle for college RHP Eric Arnett (ouch!). In 2010, their 1st round pick (Dylan Covey) was diagnosed with diabetes after being drafted and did not sign. In 2011, they went with "safe" college picks with their 2 first rounders, selecting RHP Taylor Jungmann ahead of RHP high schooler Jose Fernandez, and LHP Jed Bradley ahead of RHP Sonny Gray. The jury is still out on the last two draft classes. In 2012, they loaded up on promising bats with their first four picks (Coulter, Roache, Haniger, and Taylor), although they passed on land handed masher 3B Joey Gallo 3 times! In 2013, they were without their 1st rounder due to the FA signing of Kyle Lohse, but have high hopes for their first two picks (Williams and Neuhaus).

 

Although he had big shoes to fill, the jury is still out on Bruce Seid and his scouting department's ability to draft players with MLB talent.

 

With 3 of the first 50 picks in a deep draft, I think this is a very crucial draft for our scouting director and the future of the Milwaukee Brewers.

[3and2Fastball]

Tucker Neuhaus is hitting .231/.311 in Rookie Ball, which is fine considering he is 18 years old

Devin Williams is striking out 10.1 per 9 innings with a 3.38 ERA, which is great considering he is only 18

Victor Roache is struggling this year in Brevard County, but there is time to get it together

Clint Coulter is having an awesome season in A Ball so far: hitting .292 with 10 HR's in 50 games and a .978 OPS as just a 20 year old

Mitch Haniger is just doing OK in AA ball (.248/.317/.664) so far but looked great in Brewers spring training

Tyrone Taylor has been fairly solid playing for Brevard County so far

 

Generally speaking I think the last 2 drafts were pretty good, the jury is still out. I'm pretty excited about Coulter's potential

[ewitkows]

Plus Jungmann and Bradley seem to be figuring it out. Only major issue is the lack of a 3b/1b prospect.

[fondybrewfan]

2009 seems like the only really poor draft. 2010, 2011, and 2012 are actually looking fairly good at this point outside of the obvious issue with Covey in 2010. That 2009 draft is looking monumentally horrible though. So many high picks and they all suck.

[brewerprospectwatch]

He should have lost his job after the Eric Arnett pick.

 

And he also had 3 of the top 50 the year they picked Jungmann and Bradley, so I do not have a lot of confidence in him doing any better this year.

[princeofpop]

2011 class will end up being just as bad as 2009, IMO.

 

2012 has the potential to be also just as bad, although Coulter and Haniger could save it.

 

2013 has promise but since Wiliams and Neuhaus were drafted as high schoolers, that class also has the potential to produce zero major leaguers.

 

I really miss Jack Z.

[princeofpop]

He should have lost his job after the Eric Arnett pick.

 

The draft is far to fickle to fire a scouting director for missing on one LATE first round pick.

To Seid's credit, he supposedly did have Mike Trout on top of his board, but missed him by one pick.

[SRB]

I am distraught enough as a fan, but do you think Seid lies awake at night cursing Mark Teixeira and the fact that we missed Mike Trout by one pick?

[narwhalattack]

2011 class will end up being just as bad as 2009, IMO.

 

2012 has the potential to be also just as bad, although Coulter and Haniger could save it.

 

2013 has promise but since Wiliams and Neuhaus were drafted as high schoolers, that class also has the potential to produce zero major leaguers.

 

I really miss Jack Z.

 

Jack Z had the benefit of actually drafting within the top 10, and the top 5 a couple of times.

[princeofpop]

That is a really good point. Seid hasn't picked higher than #12.

[splitterpfj]

I absolutely think the Brewers could have drafted better during Bruce's tenure, but I also think too much of the "blame" gets put on his shoulders.

 

The first round picks from 2006, 2007, and 2008 were all traded, then yes, the early picks in 2009 missed, and then the first-rounder from 2010 didn't sign...that's where the system really fell in the rankings. You have nothing from the first round in five years...some of that was Bruce's fault, but some was not.

 

2010 produced Nelson and Thornburg - there's certainly nothing wrong with that.

 

2011 is still incomplete, for those who hate that draft, look again at those pitchers right now, this story is far from over, there could still be some help on the way for the big club. It's incomplete, and it could end up being ugly, but that is far from certain at this point.

 

2012 was the only year they've really focused on bats at the top, and they've certainly got some promise there.

 

2013...way too soon to tell, with no first-rounder, and those first two choices being so young.

 

In addition, the Brewers are getting contributions from Scooter Gennett, and Khris Davis, who were picked on Bruce's watch.

 

When the team dealt out a lot of top prospects, and Bruce's first two number ones produced nothing, it surely made things look bad - but there's some talent in the system, and there are some home-grown players in Milwaukee right now who came from Bruce's drafts. Those arms from 2011, and those bats from 2012 are really going to decide whether Bruce was a hit or a miss.

[jjfanec]

2009 was terrible but I actually think his most recent drafts have shown promise. 2010 with Nelson, Thornburg and even Morris has been solid minus the Covey debacle. 2011 has a chance to be okay. Jungmann is now pitching well in AAA. Lopez and Bradley could be decent but that is his second worst draft. I think 2012 looks promising. Coulter, Haniger Taylor. Not bad. Way too early on last year.

 

Jack Z was great but he was able to pick high quite often and he really didnt do well with pitchers. There is a reason the team has had to go out and trade for or sign pitchers (although they could have signed better). He nailed it with Braun and Fielder. Did very well with Weeks, Hart, and Hardy. But the guys missed quite often as well. Dave Krynzel, Mike Jones, Mark Rogers, Jeremy Jeffress, Matt LaPorta, Evan Fredricksen. All drafted in the top 12 except Jeffress and Fredricksen. He definitely hit on some guys but his drafting of pitching wasnt great.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I think it should be. the brewers front office should raid the cardinals or braves for some top assistants or scouts. they consistently draft in the middle to end of the round and do great with their picks. they also are much better with international talent.

[BallFour]

I don't fault them for passing on Jose Fernandez, McCalvy said it was Marlins or University of Miami for Fernandez the kid wanted to control his own fate. Can't fault a team for passing on a guy for signability issues especially coming off a year where Covey did not sign.

[trwi7]

Correct me if I'm wrong and I might be and he could've switched but I'm pretty sure Fernandez was going to South Florida in Tampa where he also went to high school.

[BallFour]

After a little research I did find it was USF but here is where my confusion started as Mccalvy says the U.

 

https://twitter.com/alecdopp/status/459870561876066304

[SRB]

I think it should be. the brewers front office should raid the cardinals or braves for some top assistants or scouts. they consistently draft in the middle to end of the round and do great with their picks. they also are much better with international talent.

 

The Brewers have had a bad few years, but I think we overestimate other teams' success too. For example, the Braves got Heyward at #12 in 2007 and Mike Minor at #7 in 2009, but before that their only decent first round picks since 2001 have been Saltalamacchia (#36, 2003) and Jeff Francoeur (#23, 2002). And obviously the latter two are not a high bar.

[TheCrew07]

That's kind of the point though... the standard excuse is always Team X had high draft picks to build their team, as if the Brewers didn't build their team with high draft picks?

 

The point is how well teams do developing talent without having a top 10 pick... something the Brewers haven't excelled at by any means under Seid to this point. Coulter and Taylor were good a start, I like Haniger, I've never been sure that Roache would hit enough. Pitching wise they've done well with mid and back of the rotation types, but haven't really brought in any impact talent though I really liked the Devin Williams pick.

 

This is the draft to make some gains on the impact pitching front, if it doesn't happen here and didn't happen in 2011... well then there's really not much hope for this current group. Pitching has been the only thing holding this organization back for a long time and yet they continually chose to address the issue the worst way possible from a long-term perspective... trading for short duration pitchers, drafting pitchers that had big arms but no control (even though they've never had success with that kind of player), and then going the "quick moving" college route picking higher floor players that haven't yet made MLB or are washed out of baseball.

 

I like the fact we finally have some pitching depth in 3-5s, but the lack of anyone with true impact potential is a tremendous glaring weakness, as is the fact that Bradley (whom I still don't trust) is the only LHP starting pitcher with any kind of stuff.

[Noche]

People used to talk about Lucroy has lacking "true impact potential". Wily too. Thornburg too. Jimmy Nelson is often described this way.

 

Seid has my vote of confidence.

[jjfanec]

I get what you are saying Crew. The Brewers do need a top end starter but those are very hard to find. I dont see any reason Nelson doesnt have #2 starter as his ceiling. I am assuming you have him in your 3-5 group and I understand that but his peripherals are great, he keeps balls on the ground, etc. He was widely panned by many on this board when he was picked but Seid got it right, now he has gotten a lot wrong too, but he nailed it with Nelson.

 

I would say it is very tough to find a true ace in general - how many are there in baseball? And where were most of those guys drafted? Because of how the draft works guys just say they are only signing with certain teams. Seid definitely has his warts. The lack of left-handed pitching is an issue. I could probably be swayed that his job is on the line but his last two years have impressed me. Also watching guys like Nelson, Thornburg, Lucroy, Gennett, and Davis produce makes me think he has a good eye for talent if he could just grow in a couple areas or take more calculated risks.

[TheCrew07]

There's a difference between ceiling and a reasonable projection. Nelson, Peralta, and Thornburg all have a ceiling as #2, but will they will get there?

 

Early in his career I thought Thornburg could maybe be #2 but then he got to the upper levels and started giving up XBHs at an alarming rate. Peralta was a 2 pitch pitcher without control through most of his minor league career, most prospect evaluators thought he was a bullpen arm. Nelson looked awful when I saw him in WI, he was a 2 pitch guy without control as well.

 

Certain posters on this forum here and there may think a prospect is much better than he is, we will all champion guys we like to a certain degree, but again we don't really have a pitcher with that true impact profile: 2-3 plus pitches, FB topping out at 95+, control with a BB rate down around 2, a K rate over 9 for their career, and who's going to give you 7+ IP on 110 pitches on a somewhat regular basis. Nelson is ascending that way but his control still comes and goes while Thornburg has been about the same his entire minor league career and through his first 117+ MLB innings has a BB rate of 3.8 and K rate of 7.2.

 

Peralta didn't come out of the draft, he was an international signee, another area the Brewers have been horrible historically, producing just 2 MLB players (Alcides Escobar & Wily Peralta) since I happened across Brewerfan.net way back in the day, but that's a different discussion entirely.

 

We have a ton of guys with 2nd or 3rd tier FBs, some of those guys have a plus pitch, some guys max out around MLB average with their best secondary offering.

 

Jimmy Nelson are Ariel Pena are the only 2 RH starting prospects with "stuff" above R with a K rate over 9. Mike Fiers, Jacob Barnes, and Hiram Burgos were the others. Nelson and Pena both have 2nd tier FB velocity, the other guys are average. Nelson's BB rate is 2.8 which is pretty good but Pena's is a whopping 4.9.

 

We have 6 LH starters in the entire organization, only 2 have a K rate over 9, 110 year old Brad Mills (okay he's 29 but not a prospect) and Tyler Alexander who's more funky than he is wicked. If Bradley's velocity has come back he's only lefty with even 2nd tier velocity, all the rest of those guys are average or worse.

 

Seid's track record with impact pitching at the top of the draft is horrible, he's done well in the middle area... Nelson, Thornburg, Wagner, and Williams look promising with Jorge Lopez being a bit of wild card. I also liked Drew Gagnon when he was in WI but he hasn't made much improvement as he's moved up, his rate stats in AA are awful. Arnett, Heckathorn, Covey, Jungmann, and Bradley are not top of the rotation guys and it was very apparent in their first MiLB season. Of course Covey didn't sign but he wasn't a good target regardless, he still doesn't have a plus secondary offering and he's repeating A ball this year for the A's as a 22 year old. He may ultimately be a big league pitcher, but other than a 2nd tier FB he's not outstanding in any way.

 

So point remains, there were impact arms all over the place in 2011 and there are plenty arms with impact potential in this draft as well. We can be "in it" with a rotation full of 3s but I don't think we can win anything meaningful in the post season with that kind of roster construction, at some point we need pitchers we can match-up to the best in baseball. Maybe Peralta (again not drafted by Seid) can get there but he's not enough by himself. We need at least 1 more guy of that type, preferably 2 in the rotation to go with him.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The disaster of the 2009 draft coupled with the 1st round Covey debacle in 2010 is why this farm system is so poorly regarded...losing out on Trout sucks, but they still had a pile of picks early in 2009 and pretty much missed on all of them. Then having a top 15 pick not sign due to diabetes for the 2010 draft stung even more. I think the Covey 1st round issue drove the decision in 2011 to draft college pitchers instead of high schoolers at similar spots in round 1. Jungman and Bradley may turn out to be MLB-caliber pitchers, but star power was missed.

 

The results for the 2013 draft (without a true 1st round pick, mind you) so far are promising, although it's obviously too soon to know. The 2012 draft is actually looking pretty decent, too. The minor league prospect void created by the 2009 draft and the trades shortly thereafter to acquire the impact MLB pitching that wins teams championships is why the farm system has been poorly regarded recently. Maybe I'm too much of an optimist, but it seems like that perception is turning around a bit, and a solid day 1 of the 2014 draft could really bolster that. Hitting on an occasional Corey Hart (mid-late round obscure pick a scouting staff unearths that develops into a MLB regular) a bit more often sure would be nice, too.

[WV Brew]

I would throw out 2009 as Bruce did not have a whole season to prepare. It is really unfair to blame him for that. Every team has players they could have drafted and didn't who turned out to be better than the guy they got. The Jungmann, Bradley draft, I'm sure he got orders from above to go with college arms to quickly replace guys in the Majors. Didn't work out but that's not entirely Seid's fault if those were his orders.

[igor67]

Rather than discussing the performance the more relevant answer to the question is that there is no way barring something wacky (like taking a guy he obviously couldn't sign) that his draft picks this year would cost him his job. The performance of the guys down on the farm is going to contribute far more to his evaluation than anything we'd learn about this year's draft in the next couple of months (again barring something really extraordinary).

[princeofpop]

I'm not implying that he will be shown the door on Monday, but if the guys he has picked the last few years, combined with whoever he picks in this draft, don't start to show something by this time next year, the Brewers may need to consider some changes in the scouting department.

 

Go back and compare our 2009 draft to the Cardinals 2009 draft and you will be alarmed about the future of our team in the NL Central.