Do Contenders Ever Sell?

[RobDeer 45]

There has been a lot of talk about trading someone like Yo at the deadline even if we are in it. Do contenders ever sell a starter/starting pitcher? I just can't see that happening. If a player is average enough that a contender doesn't need them, I doubt another contender would see that person as an asset. Lots of talk about Yo bringing in a good prospect, but I can't see that if he's not going to help us make the playoffs.

 

Maybe I'm looking at it too cut and dry.

 

For the record, I'm all about trading players the year before or the year of their contract coming up but it's really hard to do when you are in the hunt. I just don't know how you pull that off.

[phnxcrew]

I think if we had a deal in place for an ace trading an average pitcher like gallardo makes sense.

[ewitkows]

If Cliff Lee or some other frontline start is available then maybe

[RobDeer 45]

Yes that makes sense to me if he's a throw in and you upgrade your current roster. There was talk in the IGT of trading Yo for a prospect and bumping up one of our guys from the minors. I just don't see a scenario where that would ever happen.

 

Maybe, and I mean maybe....if an AL team lost a pitcher and was desperate, there could be a move there, but that would mean Yo isn't pitching well for us if we think we could let him go. Therefore he really wouldn't bring much back. Just can't see a scenario.

[monty57]

"Selling" (trading the present for the future) and "buying" (trading the future for the present) are usually what's discussed around the deadline. Simply "trading" (a move where both MLB teams trade from strength for an area of need) could make sense, but I think most GMs/owners are scared to do this. There is too much chance of catastrophe for management to be willing to make the deal. For example, what if the Brewers trade Gallardo and then another starter gets hurt, or maybe Nelson doesn't pitch well in his rookie campaign. GMs/owners usually don't want to make a move that could be perceived as the reason they blew a playoff chance. Trading away a producing starter would fit in this category. More likely is that they will trade a fringe prospect for a bench upgrade

 

As to the question in the title, the only example I can think of off the top of my head was the White Sox selling when they were three games back. They took a lot of grief for doing that... at least until the won the World Series not too many years after the "sell."

[Thurston Fluff]

While the White Sox were only three games back they were well below .500 and had a couple teams ahead of them at the time. They were not really a true contender IMHO.

[TheCrew07]

No but they should if it makes the team or organization stronger. Good roster management should be independent of record but baseball has this rigid but arbitrary framework of buying if you're in it and selling only if you are out.

 

I would agree that fan perception and the conservative nature of baseball GMs is the driving factor, most fans and front office people want their teams to operate on established MLB protocols. I'm not one of those people, I'm always looking for a better way...

 

TB wasn't completely of it when they dumped Kazmir, they were in the race until they tanked in September. They never had great playoff odds that season, but they were in the thick of things.

 

There's quite a bit not to like about Yo as his velocity hasn't bounced back like many posters had hoped, he's averaging less than 6 IP per start, and he's tied for Wang with the worst strike percentage on the team.

 

I just don't think the perceived drop off from Gallardo or Estrada to our next pitcher is enough to completely close the door on the idea of trading a player. Especially this year with the rash of pitching injuries... if someone is desperate for a pitching upgrade and willing to give up more than Gallardo/Estrada are worth I'd move them in a heartbeat. The media wouldn't like it, the fans wouldn't like it as I'm sure Gallardo will bounce back results wise some, but it would be a very solid move for the organization in the short and long term.

 

I'm not so much interested in what teams have done historically, I'll take it into consideration when I post, but I'm most interested in isolating variables and working on sound organization building strategy. The perception is that you don't sell veterans when you are in the race, you must buy with prospects, but the reality is that if you wouldn't suffer a production drop off it shouldn't matter when you trade the player, the only thing that should ultimately matter is when you can get the best return. There's no reason you can't buy and sell if the moves are what's best for organization, like much in baseball there's way too much "this is the way it's always been done so it should only be done this way"... when much of what baseball has done is wasteful, inefficient, or ineffective long term.

[Thurston Fluff]

Good roster management should be independent of record but baseball has this rigid but arbitrary framework of buying if you're in it and selling only if you are out.

 

Good roster management is a means to an end. That end is the record. You cannot treat them as independent since one is designed to create the other.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Good roster management should be independent of record but baseball has this rigid but arbitrary framework of buying if you're in it and selling only if you are out.

 

Good roster management is a means to an end. That end is the record. You cannot treat them as independent since one is designed to create the other.

 

No, this is a business. The end is profit. Record influences that, but it's not the only factor. Ask the A's

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/attend.shtml

[FVBrewerFan]

I just don't think the perceived drop off from Gallardo or Estrada to our next pitcher is enough to completely close the door on the idea of trading a player. Especially this year with the rash of pitching injuries... if someone is desperate for a pitching upgrade and willing to give up more than Gallardo/Estrada are worth I'd move them in a heartbeat. The media wouldn't like it, the fans wouldn't like it as I'm sure Gallardo will bounce back results wise some, but it would be a very solid move for the organization in the short and long term.

 

Agreed. I would deal either Yo/Estrada if you get a good return for them. Would have tried to deal Yo before the season even started. Estrada costs less, and is versatile (starter/reliever) so I would prefer to move Yo.

 

Some have said they would do this if they can pick up an Ace somewhere else. Why? Not sure one has anything to do with the other. There's no reason to believe Jimmy Nelson can't put up the same or better numbers as Yo. So you save money, get prospects in return, and have equal or better results having Nelson in the rotation over Yo.

 

This organization is famous for hanging onto guys too long. They have already passed the line where Yo's value was at it's highest. That's ok, they got a couple more solid years out of him for a reasonable salary. I just rather get something for him now, then just letting his contract expire next year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This organization is famous for hanging onto guys too long.

 

Paul Molitor, Prince Fielder, Richie Sexson, Jorge De La Rosa, Matt LaPorta, Ben Sheets among others are fine examples of players the Brewers either let go prematurely or at precisely the right point. Every organization's fanbase seems to think that their favorite team is famous for hanging onto guys too long (except for maybe the Marlins, but they have no fanbase). Have you talked to a Yankee fan recently?

 

starting pitching depth is one of this Brewer teams' strengths, and they have it because they have about 8-9 arms between the majors and AAA that could provide quality MLB starts if needed. Pick up Yo's 2015 team option and trade him over the offseason, or get Estrada locked in for his next arbitration year and trade him over the offseason - you'd get back the same value then as you would by trading them over the next month, and you wouldn't sacrifice pitching depth during this season.

 

For in-season trades, I'd think the area to explore dealing veterans might be in the bullpen...Gorzelanny & Henderson coming back to Milwaukee coupled with a glut of AA and AAA relievers is creating a logjam, and the Brewers should try moving some of those pieces to improve MLB roster weaknesses or minor league position player depth...heck, even international slot money. If they don't trade some of those guys, they're just going to end up losing them via waivers when they run out of room and player options.

[HiAndTight]

This organization is famous for hanging onto guys too long.

 

Paul Molitor, Prince Fielder, Richie Sexson, Jorge De La Rosa, Matt LaPorta, Ben Sheets among others are fine examples of players the Brewers either let go prematurely or at precisely the right point. Every organization's fanbase seems to think that their favorite team is famous for hanging onto guys too long (except for maybe the Marlins, but they have no fanbase). Have you talked to a Yankee fan recently?

starting pitching depth is one of this Brewer teams' strengths, and they have it because they have about 8-9 arms between the majors and AAA that could provide quality MLB starts if needed. Pick up Yo's 2015 team option and trade him over the offseason, or get Estrada locked in for his next arbitration year and trade him over the offseason - you'd get back the same value then as you would by trading them over the next month, and you wouldn't sacrifice pitching depth during this season.

 

For in-season trades, I'd think the area to explore dealing veterans might be in the bullpen...Gorzelanny & Henderson coming back to Milwaukee coupled with a glut of AA and AAA relievers is creating a logjam, and the Brewers should try moving some of those pieces to improve MLB roster weaknesses or minor league position player depth...heck, even international slot money. If they don't trade some of those guys, they're just going to end up losing them via waivers when they run out of room and player options.

 

 

Like the general disdain for managers, I think this is dead on. If you have a good player, seldom are you going to just get rid of him unless he's nearing Free Agency and you have no chance to keep him.

 

Very few teams operate the way some on here would like, ie, trading Gallardo before last season when his value was really high.

 

That said, the shine has come off Gallardo a little bit. He never quite reached the ceiling I'd hoped for from him(a high end #2 starter) but he was a very good starting pitcher. I think he's sliding right now and I think in theory it'd be a fantastic move to trade him and slide Nelson right into that starting rotation. I believe Nelson is ready and I also believe that Garza is a better pitcher than his numbers show thus far.

 

The problem, as Monty pointed out is that the "safe," move is holding onto your starting pitchers. If we trade Gallardo and Estrada struggles as he gets to 150-160 innings, and/or Garza gets hurt and as a result(or even if it's not as a result, but just the perception) Melvin would get killed.

 

The truth is a shot at the playoffs is rare for the Brewers and because of that, I doubt they'll actually trade a starting pitcher. Even if it does make a lot of sense.

[docduany]

Fear the Chorizo , I'm not going to disagree with you on the other players on the list. But Pauly was still kicking ass when he left Milwaukee. The emperor of all evil Sal Bando and the cheap Seligs wouldn't even offer Molitor arbitration until it was too late. It was a money thing, not a production thing. Along with his numbers Pauly was the 1993 World Series MVP.

 

Paul Molitor's numbers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molitpa01.shtml

[Fear The Chorizo]

In looking at Yo's stat line this season and comparing it to recent season-long averages, it's startling how similar they are...

 

2014

ERA - 4.08

WHIP - 1.30

K/BB - 2.08

K/9 - 6.7

opp avg - 0.247

GO/AO - 1.44

 

Career

ERA - 3.75

WHIP - 1.30

K/BB - 2.5

K/9 - 8.73

opp avg - 0.244

GO/AO - 1.2

 

If Yo's next start is a quality start, his 2014 basically mirrors his career averages. Yo's always been a streaky pitcher who goes through stretches of pitching both poorly and great - to me he's the pitching equivalent of a what the offensive production of a healthy Rickie Weeks would be. Yo can carry a rotation for a month as well as be an anchor, and at the end of the year his #'s look above average.

 

I think Yo has been miscast as a #1 or #2/caliber starter simply because the Brewers haven't had better options through large portions of his career. If memory serves, Yo tends to pitch well during the middle part of a season, and his recent splits seem to indicate that too.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Fear the Chorizo , I'm not going to disagree with you on the other players on the list. But Pauly was still kicking ass when he left Milwaukee. The emperor of all evil Sal Bando and the cheap Seligs wouldn't even offer Molitor arbitration until it was too late. It was a money thing, not a production thing. Along with his numbers Pauly was the 1993 World Series MVP.

 

Paul Molitor's numbers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molitpa01.shtml

 

Molitor made my list as a guy whom the Brewers let go prematurely...

[Oxy]

Fear the Chorizo , I'm not going to disagree with you on the other players on the list. But Pauly was still kicking ass when he left Milwaukee. The emperor of all evil Sal Bando and the cheap Seligs wouldn't even offer Molitor arbitration until it was too late. It was a money thing, not a production thing. Along with his numbers Pauly was the 1993 World Series MVP.

 

Paul Molitor's numbers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molitpa01.shtml

 

That only plays into his point. He said "prematurely." The criticism was that we hold on to players TOO long--which we obviously didn't with Molitor.

[liveforoctober]

You have to think the Brewers would listen to a contender needing a lefty out of the pen. Smith isn't moving but Gorzo and Duke should be shopped and the Crew holds leverage in that convo. Anyone out there see any contenders with a glaring bullpen/lefty need?

[HiAndTight]

In looking at Yo's stat line this season and comparing it to recent season-long averages, it's startling how similar they are...

 

2014

ERA - 4.08

WHIP - 1.30

K/BB - 2.08

K/9 - 6.7

opp avg - 0.247

GO/AO - 1.44

 

Career

ERA - 3.75

WHIP - 1.30

K/BB - 2.5

K/9 - 8.73

opp avg - 0.244

GO/AO - 1.2

 

If Yo's next start is a quality start, his 2014 basically mirrors his career averages. Yo's always been a streaky pitcher who goes through stretches of pitching both poorly and great - to me he's the pitching equivalent of a what the offensive production of a healthy Rickie Weeks would be. Yo can carry a rotation for a month as well as be an anchor, and at the end of the year his #'s look above average.

 

I think Yo has been miscast as a #1 or #2/caliber starter simply because the Brewers haven't had better options through large portions of his career. If memory serves, Yo tends to pitch well during the middle part of a season, and his recent splits seem to indicate that too.

 

 

I think the K's per 9 are the main reason for concern and the belief that Yo's sliding a bit.

His HR rate is also up and his BABIP is down.

 

Yo's going to have to keep getting ground balls and hopefully his HR rate will return to normal to make up for the decreased strikeout rate.

[docduany]

Fear the Chorizo, my bad! I wasn't comprehending your point. Thought you were bagging on Pauly. (Apparently his leaving is still a sensitive subject 21 years later)

[JohnBriggs12]

With the Brewers in contention, Melvin isn't likely to deal Gallardo for prospects, but that doesn't preclude him for making a deal that can help them now if there was a match. You just don't see too many deals like that in middle of the season any more. If the Yankees were say desperate enough to deal Solarte for Gallardo, well that would be worth considering. Looks like they'll hold on to Weeks too and hope he continues to deliver in his role and just let him go for the salary relief at the end of the year. There are teams out there like the A's that could use him.

[TheCrew07]

... If the Yankees were say desperate enough to deal Solarte for Gallardo, well that would be worth considering...

 

He's the Yankees version of Casey McGehee, no thanks. This article saves me trouble of laying out why...

 

Ask BA: Can Yangervis Solarte Keep This Up?

May 21, 2014 by J.J. Cooper

 

Can Solarte keep this up? It’s very doubtful. Solarte has been healthy long enough for us to have a reasonable idea of what kind of player he is now. He’ll turn 27 in July, so he’s unlikely to have taken a significant step forward offensively from what he’s shown with the Rangers in 2012 and 2013. Last year, he ranked 71st among 83 Pacific Coast League qualifiers in weighted runs created, a stat that tries to account for the differences in park effects. The year before he ranked 62nd out of 88 PCL qualifiers in wRC.

 

It’s worth remembering that at this time in 2012, Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair was hitting .323/.422/.637. He hit .225 the rest of the season and has not played in the big leagues since.

 

Because he’s a switch-hitter with defensive versatility, Solarte should have a lengthier career than that, and he should be a useful utility infielder at the big league level going forward–a Wilson Betemit-type career is possible—but it’s unlikely he’s going to play his way into an everyday job for the long-term, great start or not.

 

[pre]Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS

2006 18 -0.7 Twins DOSL FRk MIN 53 227 194 32 54 9 2 2 29 2 2 27 18 .278 .373 .376 .750

2007 19 -0.8 Twins GULF Rk MIN 52 203 175 25 53 4 3 1 33 7 3 11 18 .303 .342 .377 .719

2008 20 -2.2 2 Teams 2 Lgs A+-A MIN 83 328 294 34 70 13 1 3 33 9 4 21 38 .238 .301 .320 .621

2009 21 -0.2 3 Teams 3 Lgs Rk-A+-AA MIN 16 60 51 6 9 1 0 0 5 0 0 5 3 .176 .254 .196 .450

2010 22 -1.1 3 Teams 3 Lgs A+-AA-Rk MIN 84 344 322 36 94 18 1 5 34 4 1 17 35 .292 .328 .401 .729

2011 23 -1.3 NewBritain EL AA MIN 121 497 459 64 151 36 3 7 49 5 4 24 38 .329 .367 .466 .834

2012 24 -2.8 RoundRock PCL AAA TEX 130 568 518 69 149 28 0 11 54 3 1 41 44 .288 .340 .405 .745

2013 25 -1.9 RoundRock PCL AAA TEX 133 577 526 66 145 31 0 12 75 3 0 39 69 .276 .323 .403 .727

8 Seasons 672 2804 2539 332 725 140 10 41 312 33 15 185 263 .286 .336 .397 .733[/pre]

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/4/2014.

 

I'll simply say that trading Gallardo for a bench bat would be awful.

[FVBrewerFan]

Paul Molitor, Prince Fielder, Richie Sexson, Jorge De La Rosa, Matt LaPorta, Ben Sheets among others are fine examples of players the Brewers either let go prematurely or at precisely the right point. Every organization's fanbase seems to think that their favorite team is famous for hanging onto guys too long

 

Well, Molitor and Fielder were dumped early for financial reasons they didn't get anything back for them. Ben Sheets arm was done, so not sure how he ends up on this list.

 

With that said though, I take your point. It always seems like YOUR team holds on to guys too long, makes too many outs on the bases, uses the bullpen incorrectly, etc. So I'll own that.

 

Yo is a unique situation. I would never trade him this season just to get whatever you can. But if the deal was good enough, I would do it. Free up money, and replace him with Nelson makes too much sense. And I'm not too worried about rotation depth for the last 4 months of the season. Fiers, Smith, Thornburg gives you plenty of depth.

[endaround]

A few things:

 

1) Trades take a lot of effort to pull off. The more moving parts the more things can break down. So its hard to upgrade and sell off at the same time.

 

2) A team needs 7 to 8 starting pitchers. The Brewers have 6 or 7 ready to go. If the Brewers 5 starters average 28 starts each (what they averaged last year) that is 140 starts leaving another 22 starts, almost an entire starter's workload to be covered. And given how injuries are likely to occur you can't have just one guy make those starts.

 

3) It is unlikely that anyone on the 25 man roster would be traded. The starters are hard to be repalced and the bench is not good enough for anybody to want them. You could maybe make a case for Maldonaldo being traded if the return is big enough. Maybe the Rays want his framing skills! Let's start the Maldonaldo for Price rumors right now!

[monty57]

Trades take a lot of effort to pull off. The more moving parts the more things can break down. So its hard to upgrade and sell off at the same time.

 

Yeah, I mentioned earlier that most GM's/owners don't want to make a move that could blow up on them. In a trade of one of our MLB starting pitchers for a player who would be an upgrade on our MLB team right away, you'd not only need Melvin/Attanasio to completely change their m.o. and trade a "name" veteran player, you'd also need another team's management to go for it as well. Not likely.

 

A team needs 7 to 8 starting pitchers. The Brewers have 6 or 7 ready to go. If the Brewers 5 starters average 28 starts each (what they averaged last year) that is 140 starts leaving another 22 starts, almost an entire starter's workload to be covered. And given how injuries are likely to occur you can't have just one guy make those starts.

 

The Brewers do have "MLB ready" depth and could probably get away with trading one of their current MLB starting pitchers, but I doubt it will happen. Again with the Murphy's Law thing, if they stand pat, the rotation will stay healthy and fans will wonder why we didn't trade someone. If they make a trade, a couple of pitchers will go down, and the replacements will have some "bumps in the road," causing fans to scream that we never should have traded away a starting pitcher mid-season. Too much risk for the potential reward, as I think we'd demand a MLB player back in trade, and I don't think we would get a significant enough MLB upgrade at any position to merit the trade.

 

It is unlikely that anyone on the 25 man roster would be traded. The starters are hard to be repalced and the bench is not good enough for anybody to want them.

 

I can't think of many either. It wouldn't make sense to trade any position starters other than Reynolds or Overbay, and no one would want them, as they're the guys we're trying to upgrade.

 

Weeks is still a possibility if the value back in trade outweighs his value to the team. Contrary to pre-season beliefs, he is actually providing value to the team, and I don't know that any team would pay his salary and give us enough to make a trade happen.

 

If a starting pitcher were traded, I think it would be Estrada. Attanasio feels that fans like "name" players, so Gallardo, Lohse and Garza are probably not getting traded. I don't think Estrada will either, but if one is traded, it would likely be him.

 

Assuming no other injuries happening before Gorzellany returns, it is possible a reliever could be traded, notably one of the lefties. It won't be Smith, so that leaves either Gorzellany, Duke or Wang. Veteran lefty relievers having good seasons have value, so Duke could bring back something valuable. Wang has enough potential that the Brewers are holding on to him, so I'd guess a "seller" would find a spot for him on their MLB roster for the remainder of the season and give us a "rental" they no longer need. It'd be nice if the Brewers can find a way to keep Wang for the future, but I could easily see the Brewers trading him for a mid-season upgrade.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Paul Molitor, Prince Fielder, Richie Sexson, Jorge De La Rosa, Matt LaPorta, Ben Sheets among others are fine examples of players the Brewers either let go prematurely or at precisely the right point.

 

Molitor and De La Rosa made this off the top of my head list as players the Brewers let go prematurely...be it for financial reasons or just giving up on a talented lefthander who's had a pretty good career since leaving the Brewers.

 

Fielder, Sexson, LaPorta, and Sheets made this list because IMO they were let go at exactly the perfect time in their Brewer careers. The Brewers got the prime years of a homegrown slugger in Fielder, made the playoffs twice, and didn't overpay to keep him around during his decline which is well underway right now. Sexson was traded for a boatload of players who helped turn the culture around in Milwaukee before the homegrown prospects were ready. LaPorta was traded at his highest value to bring in C.C. and get the Brewers a playoff berth. The Brewers got the best years out of Sheets at a great price (although I'll always regret them pushing 230+ IP out of him when they were godawful as a team, only to see him break down once they started contending), and didn't try to resign him in free agency.

 

I'm sure there are better examples on both ends that show roster management can't be judged by absolutes...yes the Brewers have seemingly kept some aging veterans or scrap heap guys around longer than they probably should have, but that's the case for pretty much every organization - especially when viewed by their own fanbase who always think there are better options available between the minor leagues, FA, or hypothetical trade scenarios that typically are unrealistic 90% of the time.