Thoughts on Jon Singleton's contract

[ewitkows]

Jon Singleton details: $1.5M this year, $2M/year from 2015-18, $2.5M ($500K buyout) in 2019, $5M and $13M ($250K buyout each) in 2020, '21.

 

Seems like he's leaving a bit of money on the table and if he doesn't pan out after 4 years they can dump him for 250k

[TheCrew07]

I don't have a problem with it... overpay on the league minimum years and get a serious discount through arbitration and the FA years bought out. If he performs at just a league average level for the life of the contract it will be a huge cost savings for the team and Singleton gets his financial security right away. This is exactly the way these contracts should work.

 

If the player doesn't want the security and elects to go for a bigger future payday like Segura has done that's entirely up to them, but the team shouldn't have to pay more to provide financial security for a player up front in his career.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's their money. You'd think they'd wait to see what he does over at least a half a season in the majors. Seems to me that he's "contact challenged" so no sure thing (see Mike Olt). Didn't they learn anything waiting on Brett Wallace?

[Funketown]

So if I'm looking at this correctly, I have:

 

2014: $1.5 (minimum-0) for half the season

2015: $2 (minmum-1)

2016: $2 (minimum-2)

2017: $2 (minimum-3)

2018: $2 (Arb-1)

2019: $2.5 (Arb-2) with $250K buyout

2020: $5 (Arb-3) with $500K buyout

2021: $13 (FA) with $500K buyout

 

So if Singleton is horrible, they're on the hook for $10.5 million, while if he produces, they'll get eight seasons for $30M (really less in PV terms because it's so backloaded). This seems like a smart deal for both sides; risk is transferred from the player to the franchise, and the franchise in all likelihood gets a pretty good deal here.

[Oxy]

Most guys either sign a big contract and then feel some pressure to live up to that contract (Longoria, Tulowitzki, Braun), or they DON'T sign a contract and go year-to-year, putting pressure on themselves to perform each year in order to cash in big on their first FA contract (Fielder--Segura?).

 

This one is in-between. I don't think I like it. It would be great if Singleton was working at a desk at an insurance company or something. I guess it depends a bit on his make-up/drive.

[ewitkows]

Bud Norris @BudNorris25 · 15h

 

Sorry but this Singleton deal is terrible. Wish the Jon listened to the union and not his agent.

 

Mark Mulder @markmulder20 · 1h

 

Just saw contract this #astros prospect signed. Either he doesn't believe in himself to be great or he has a terrible agent who wants the 4%

 

Some players don't seem to like it

[JimH5]

He likes it and the Astros like it, so that's all that matters.

 

A $10 million guarantee is a very large sum of money, and it should provide him a lifetime of financial security.

 

I hope he doesn't have regrets later in the deal, but if he does, I would think the team would restructure it to keep him happy.

[Roderick]

I hope he doesn't have regrets later in the deal, but if he does, I would think the team would restructure it to keep him happy.

 

How often does that really happen? Obviously if he is doing good, the team would try to extend the contract at some point, but at the fair value for the year(s) added. Do we really think the Brewers will say to Lucroy, we are underpaying you, have this extra million dollars.

[trwi7]

Bud Norris @BudNorris25 · 15h

 

Sorry but this Singleton deal is terrible. Wish the Jon listened to the union and not his agent.

 

Mark Mulder @markmulder20 · 1h

 

Just saw contract this #astros prospect signed. Either he doesn't believe in himself to be great or he has a terrible agent who wants the 4%

 

Some players don't seem to like it

 

They should cry about it some more. If I was as talented as Singleton, would I have taken it? Probably not, but put that contract in front of me and I might change my mind. Nothing wrong with getting guaranteed financial security for you and your family.

[Oxy]

When I said I didn't like the contract, I was speaking more from the perspective of ownership who offered it.

 

The veteran union guys have all "made it." That doesn't mean that what they think is what is best for Singleton--it likely means that what they think is what is best for themselves.

 

I don't see Matt LaPorta or Mat Gamel tweeting about what a dumb contract this was for Singleton. Mulder and Norris making their opinions publicly known through Twitter without being asked first says a lot more about the value of their opinions than anything.

[reillymcshane]

I really dislike other player's criticizing someone else's decision. I understand a deal like this can set the bar lower for other players in the future, but each person is different. Bud Norris and Mark Mulder don't know this guy's situation.

 

Singleton was suspended for pot last year and admitted to suffering from depression - which lead to too much drinking. Perhaps the best thing for him - the way for him to thrive - is to have the security of the long term deal. I've known a few people who suffered from depression who did best when their life was predictable. The less stress, the less distraction, the better for them. Maybe Singleton is like that. I don't know. But the thing is that everyone is different. He made an adult decision that works for him in this situation.

 

Also, people are saying that Singleton is leaving a lot of money on the table. That's true - if he turns out good. But I don't think Singleton has ever been considered that much of a sure thing. He's never even played in the majors. He's never been a top 10 type prospect. He's been a good - not great - prospect. Go back five years and for every Freddie Freeman there are a bunch of guys like Lars Andersen, Logan Morrison, Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorte and Brett Wallace. A lot can happen to a player, including injuries, so you can't just automatically assume Singleton will be good.

[endaround]

The issue is there have been rumors that Houston would only call him and similar players up if they sign a contract like this. I don't know if that is true, but that puts an entirely different spin on this.

[TheCrew07]

The union would file a grievance in a heartbeat if that was the case.

[RockCoCougars]

Bud Norris @BudNorris25 · 15h

 

Sorry but this Singleton deal is terrible. Wish the Jon listened to the union and not his agent.

 

Mark Mulder @markmulder20 · 1h

 

Just saw contract this #astros prospect signed. Either he doesn't believe in himself to be great or he has a terrible agent who wants the 4%

 

Some players don't seem to like it

 

How dare these guys publicly criticize a young player for taking $10 million bucks. There is a thing called risk aversion. By doing this deal, Singleton should be setting himself and his family for life while transferring a good deal of risk to the Astros. I wonder where the union would be if he suffered a career ending injury or didn't end up playing well enough to qualify for the MLB pension.

[trwi7]

The union would file a grievance in a heartbeat if that was the case.

 

Not only that but they tried to get Springer on this kind of contract and when he declined they called him up. So there may have been rumors, but it doesn't seem like there was any basis for them.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Doesn't Singleton have a history with marijuana somewhat similar to Jeffress' minor league troubles? Wondering if the guaranteed money gives him a sense of security that another failed drug test in the minors would have all but taken away...I think he's already served a 50-gamer.

 

And in regards to both Norris and Mulder - had they been offered the same deal before ever throwing a MLB pitch, my guess is that they'd have signed it just as quickly as Singleton signed his. If Singleton produces, I can see his next extension being similar to Braun's where he'll eventually get his silly money but it also gives him lifelong security.

 

Look at what Trout got years before the Angels even had to take him to his 1st year of arbitration...150 Million?? It's no wonder teams have to buy out arby and free agent years earlier than ever before if they hope to keep talented prospects reasonably cost-controlled.

 

As for the rumors about the Astros holding these deals out as carrots for major league callups - who knows if there's anything to them, but I can see the union/prospects start taking long looks at how long they are held in the minors for the sake of team control. Guys like Kris Bryant, Polanco, and to a lesser degree Taveras have no business being in the minors when they are so much better than the major leaguers playing their positions while the Super 2 calendar ticks by. When a guy's ready for the big leagues, they shouldn't be held back...even if that hurts small market teams like the Brewers.

[DoubleSwitch]

He's on the 40 man roster now, so he doesn't have to worry about marijuana tests anymore. The majors don't test for it, and no one has ever been suspended for it as far as i know. What those struggles say about maturity issues is something else entirely.

 

Back when the 'stros were trying to do this with Springer, someone used a poker analogy that I liked. If a ten dollar bet has a 25% chance at returning a $50 dollar payout then you make the bet every time. These pre-arb deals are still so cheap, and skewing so team friendly that hitting on one can pay for the cost of several misses. A ten million dollar investment is nothing compared to how much the prime years of a middle of the order bat are worth.

[danzig6767]

 

Also, people are saying that Singleton is leaving a lot of money on the table. That's true - if he turns out good. But I don't think Singleton has ever been considered that much of a sure thing. He's never even played in the majors. He's never been a top 10 type prospect. He's been a good - not great - prospect. Go back five years and for every Freddie Freeman there are a bunch of guys like Lars Andersen, Logan Morrison, Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorte and Brett Wallace. A lot can happen to a player, including injuries, so you can't just automatically assume Singleton will be good.

Yep, tons of highly ranked prospects never become good major league players and it's not like Singleton is some mega prospect either. So even if he flames out in the majors, 10 million dollars is plenty enough cash to set up a person for life so long as that person isn't foolish with the money.

 

If on the flip side he become a really good player, he'll still get 35 million dollars which would leave him a very very wealthy man and also having the chance to sign a big contract after his first year of free agency which he sold off.

 

For a guy who has yet to play in the majors, he's going to be a rich man regardless if he becomes a good major league player or not. That has to be comforting.

 

As for other players complaining like Mulder, i think they are simply blinded by having lived in a world unlike normal everyday people. So to them, the thought of securing a guaranteed 10 million dollars just doesn't seem like a very big deal compared to someone who isn't already set for life as those players are.

[danzig6767]

He's on the 40 man roster now, so he doesn't have to worry about marijuana tests anymore. The majors don't test for it, and no one has ever been suspended for it as far as i know. What those struggles say about maturity issues is something else entirely.

 

Back when the 'stros were trying to do this with Springer, someone used a poker analogy that I liked. If a ten dollar bet has a 25% chance at returning a $50 dollar payout then you make the bet every time. These pre-arb deals are still so cheap, and skewing so team friendly that hitting on one can pay for the cost of several misses. A ten million dollar investment is nothing compared to how much the prime years of a middle of the order bat are worth.

 

But teams have very vast revenue sources to cover for a deal or two like these if they don't work out well.

 

For Singleton, he's not a team worth around 700 million dollars or more. So if he flames out in the majors, he won't be set for life. After signing this contract though, he's now guaranteed 10 million dollars regardless if he ends up not cutting it in the majors. We can't just gloss over how much 10 million dollars is even if pro sports economics today are so crazy lucrative. It's a winning lottery ticket. Be reasonably smart with that much money and any person could live very comfortably for the rest of their life.

[SRB]

I'm very pro-MLBPA, but perhaps they should stop exploiting the minor leagues if they want to start complaining about minor league players accepting large guaranteed contracts? I know technically Singleton was an MLBPA member since he had recently been added to the 40-man, but most minor league players are not, and Singleton was an 8th round pick who (to my knowledge) never got a large sum of guaranteed money via signing bonus or otherwise.

 

The MLB players are greedy at the expense of all the uncovered MiLB players who never make it (and Singleton could easily become one of the latter), so it is kind of silly for them to criticize him over this. It would be different if he was in a his third year and was guaranteed a big payday in the future or something like that.

[HiAndTight]

I'm very pro-MLBPA, but perhaps they should stop exploiting the minor leagues if they want to start complaining about minor league players accepting large guaranteed contracts? I know technically Singleton was an MLBPA member since he had recently been added to the 40-man, but most minor league players are not, and Singleton was an 8th round pick who (to my knowledge) never got a large sum of guaranteed money via signing bonus or otherwise.

 

The MLB players are greedy at the expense of all the uncovered MiLB players who never make it (and Singleton could easily become one of the latter), so it is kind of silly for them to criticize him over this. It would be different if he was in a his third year and was guaranteed a big payday in the future or something like that.

 

 

10 million dollars allows him to live a very comfortable life for both he and the rest of his family for the rest of his life. Accepting that money when, to date, he's made maybe 1 million dollars is really easy to pass up when you're a pitcher like Bud Norris and you've earned 10 million dollars throughout your career and will likely make another 5-10 million next year while Singleton has never been thought of as an elite prospect.

 

Good luck to him, and if he has a good career, he'll be able to be a FA when he's 30 years old.

[homer]

He hit a homer tonight.

[SRB]

I'm very pro-MLBPA, but perhaps they should stop exploiting the minor leagues if they want to start complaining about minor league players accepting large guaranteed contracts? I know technically Singleton was an MLBPA member since he had recently been added to the 40-man, but most minor league players are not, and Singleton was an 8th round pick who (to my knowledge) never got a large sum of guaranteed money via signing bonus or otherwise.

 

The MLB players are greedy at the expense of all the uncovered MiLB players who never make it (and Singleton could easily become one of the latter), so it is kind of silly for them to criticize him over this. It would be different if he was in a his third year and was guaranteed a big payday in the future or something like that.

 

 

10 million dollars allows him to live a very comfortable life for both he and the rest of his family for the rest of his life. Accepting that money when, to date, he's made maybe 1 million dollars is really easy to pass up when you're a pitcher like Bud Norris and you've earned 10 million dollars throughout your career and will likely make another 5-10 million next year while Singleton has never been thought of as an elite prospect.

 

Good luck to him, and if he has a good career, he'll be able to be a FA when he's 30 years old.

 

I looked it up, and he did get a decent signing bonus back in 2009 as an 8th round pick ($200,000), but there's no way he's earned one million yet. Many non-40-man minor league players make below the poverty level, and even once you've been put on the 40-man the first-year minor league salary is just $40,000. I doubt he has earned more than $300,000 in his career so far (including his signing bonus).

 

Players who flame out in their pre-arbitration years really get screwed. Players who never reach the majors are even worse off (at least in the majors you are on the $500,000 minimum yearly salary for a couple seasons). Pretty good money for playing a game, but considering these guys have played baseball their entire adult lives and have no tangible employment skills, <$300,000 is not exactly a nest egg you can live on once you get cut out of baseball and suddenly find yourself looking for a job.

 

The MLBPA does not care about minor league players.

[RightFieldCoder]

The union would file a grievance in a heartbeat if that was the case.

 

Not only that but they tried to get Springer on this kind of contract and when he declined they called him up. So there may have been rumors, but it doesn't seem like there was any basis for them.

I wonder if the conversation was something like "We wouldn't offer this if we didn't think you were good enough for the bigs. If you sign this deal and we have to start paying you over $1M a year, we'll pretty much be forced to call you up immediately." So not that they'd keep him down if he didn't sign, but they'd call him up quicker if he signed.

[HiAndTight]

I'm very pro-MLBPA, but perhaps they should stop exploiting the minor leagues if they want to start complaining about minor league players accepting large guaranteed contracts? I know technically Singleton was an MLBPA member since he had recently been added to the 40-man, but most minor league players are not, and Singleton was an 8th round pick who (to my knowledge) never got a large sum of guaranteed money via signing bonus or otherwise.

 

The MLB players are greedy at the expense of all the uncovered MiLB players who never make it (and Singleton could easily become one of the latter), so it is kind of silly for them to criticize him over this. It would be different if he was in a his third year and was guaranteed a big payday in the future or something like that.

 

 

10 million dollars allows him to live a very comfortable life for both he and the rest of his family for the rest of his life. Accepting that money when, to date, he's made maybe 1 million dollars is really easy to pass up when you're a pitcher like Bud Norris and you've earned 10 million dollars throughout your career and will likely make another 5-10 million next year while Singleton has never been thought of as an elite prospect.

 

Good luck to him, and if he has a good career, he'll be able to be a FA when he's 30 years old.

 

I looked it up, and he did get a decent signing bonus back in 2009 as an 8th round pick ($200,000), but there's no way he's earned one million yet. Many non-40-man minor league players make below the poverty level, and even once you've been put on the 40-man the first-year minor league salary is just $40,000. I doubt he has earned more than $300,000 in his career so far (including his signing bonus).

 

Players who flame out in their pre-arbitration years really get screwed. Players who never reach the majors are even worse off (at least in the majors you are on the $500,000 minimum yearly salary for a couple seasons). Pretty good money for playing a game, but considering these guys have played baseball their entire adult lives and have no tangible employment skills, <$300,000 is not exactly a nest egg you can live on once you get cut out of baseball and suddenly find yourself looking for a job.

 

The MLBPA does not care about minor league players.

 

 

You're right. I didn't even bother to look at what his signing bonus was, though I didn't think it would have been even 200K. I also absent mindlessly figured in this years minimum wage forgetting he had just been called up.

 

But even if he had made a million already that doesn't change much for me. I don't know what type of background he came from, but you buy a house, a car and what do you have left? Turns out he was drafted as a 17 year old kid. It's not like you're real smart with your money at that age.

 

I don't know enough about MLBPA and the minor leagues, but it's clear that Bud Norris doesn't care about Jon Singleton in particular here and shouldn't be sticking his nose in, nor should Mark Mulder(though I didn't see his comments, I just saw someone mention he also had a similar opinion).

 

 

The kid, if he's smart, can have a family, send those kids to school, and just imagine the weight that is lifted off of you when you no longer have to worry about those things? Now hopefully he's smart and doesn't buy 5 Bentley's, but these guys should let Jon Singleton worry about how Jon Singleton earns a living.