The "This Cost Us the Playoffs in 2014" thread

[pitchleague]

also on the Smith avenue, Roenicke probably did not have a clue that we would be playing so many close games. Yeah, we have only had 26 "one-run games" which isn't even close to the most in the league, but that's just how the games finish. There were so many tied games, 1-run games, and 2-run games that it made sense for Smith to enter the contest.

 

He may be wiped out come September. And he might not be. I guess we'll find out. That's part of baseball. If Smith HADN'T been used so much, he would be healthier, sure, but we also could be sitting at .500 (or worse) because we didn't use him in those key situations and somebody else blew it. (or not--those hypothetical "other" relievers could have done the job as well; we'll never know.)

[monty57]

also on the Smith Avenue, Roenicke probably did not have a clue that we would be playing so many close games. Yeah, we have only had 26 "one-run games" which isn't even close to the most in the league, but that's just how the games finish. There were so many tied games, 1-run games, and 2-run games that it made sense for Smith to enter the contest.

 

He may be wiped out come September. And he might not be. I guess we'll find out. That's part of baseball. If Smith HADN'T been used so much, he would be healthier, sure, but we also could be sitting at .500 (or worse) because we didn't use him in those key situations and somebody else blew it. (or not--those hypothetical "other" relievers could have done the job as well; we'll never know.)

 

That's what I'm saying. The Brewers decided to bring up two promising young starters (Thornburg and Smith) to throw in the bullpen rather than sitting in the AAA rotation. The reason they're called "promising" is because they are good. Most high-rated young AAA starting pitchers should pitch well in the MLB bullpen. The question is whether this is a good idea.

 

As the best middle reliever, they are going to get called on a lot, as the manager wants to win now, and isn't thinking about future effects. These guys have always pitched on a regimented schedule. Throw every five days, with set routines on the off days. Now they're being asked to do something different that their body isn't used to. This could wear the arm more than throwing more innings on the schedule they're used to.

 

There's also the question as to whether 80 innings of middle relief in the early 20's is worth a year's service time as a 200+ IP starter in their prime. Another issue is whether they will better develop as a future starter by pitching from the bullpen or by pitching in the AAA rotation. Finally, there's the "injury insurance" issue. Luckily, we haven't had an injury to a starter this season (other than one spot start by Nelson). If we have an injury going forward, we will probably not have anyone other than maybe Fiers "stretched out," as all our starting pitching depth will be in the MLB bullpen.

 

These are all open for debate, and there isn't a set answer. I personally am not a big fan of putting guys who project to be in your MLB starting rotation into the MLB bullpen. That's just me, and I understand that there are valid arguments on both sides.

 

All of this, of course is assuming that the Brewers view either or both of Thornburg and Smith as future starters. It very well could be that they see both of their futures in the bullpen.

[logan82]

As the best middle reliever, they are going to get called on a lot, as the manager wants to win now, and isn't thinking about future effects. These guys have always pitched on a regimented schedule. Throw every five days, with set routines on the off days. Now they're being asked to do something different that their body isn't used to. This could wear the arm more than throwing more innings on the schedule they're used to.

That is my concern with putting starters in the pen. It may actually be harder on your arm becasue you don't get regular rest. Not saying you need complete rest but at the very least you would need a light day.

[HiAndTight]

Smith is a guy that they were looking at being a starter, IIRC. To the point of pitching him 200+ innings. Pitching every other day to the tune of 87 innings doesn't raise red flags to me at the MLB level. 12yr old adolescent, sure. Adult? Not so much.

 

I don't have a ton of concerns about the bullpen and it's usage in being a detrimental contributor to the 2014 playoff chances.

 

 

I think Roenicke has used the BP very well actually. Of course when Kintzler came in and blew games people were baffled as to why he was in there. Now that Smith has done that a few times, he's taking heat for that as well. But I think that's just how fans react.

 

 

As for your argument that if they view him as a starter, then 87 innings shouldn't be a concern, I don't agree. How they arrive at those innings is so different, I think it really strains their arm.

He's not getting the rest he's used to. He's getting up on occasion(though I think when RR has gotten him up and we'd added runs on, he's let him come into the game anyway) and then setting down. And he's pitching in 3-4 days in a row.

 

I think it takes a while for your arm to get used to that. Some pitchers have no trouble. Some like Thornburg do.

Of course Thornburg may have had issues either way this year. This is what is maddening about pitching and injuries.

[lcbj68c]

I think the strain on the arm is actually less for bullpen pitchers, despite less hours of rest in between. The reason is that bullpen pitchers rarely pitch to the point of tiring. Per several sports medicine articles, the arm becomes stronger, with less fatigue and less strain when multiple sets are made with short rest in between. Think of a weight-lifter. What builds strength and diminishes strain better? Doing 3 sets of 15 reps with 90 seconds of rest in between every other day OR a single set of 45 reps only once every 5 days? I don't see any added strain going from the second example to the first example. Sure, the routine is different, but Smith's arm isn't suddenly more strained and tired from pitching 1 inning every other day insted of 7 innings every 5th day. I concur that we don't know why Thornburg had a problem. I would love to see Smith have less appearances in the interest of staying fresh. I just don't know if I would go out of my way to ensure it.

[monty57]

I think the strain on the arm is actually less for bullpen pitchers, despite less hours of rest in between. The reason is that bullpen pitchers rarely pitch to the point of tiring. Per several sports medicine articles, the arm becomes stronger, with less fatigue and less strain when multiple sets are made with short rest in between. Think of a weight-lifter. What builds strength and diminishes strain better? Doing 3 sets of 15 reps with 90 seconds of rest in between every other day OR a single set of 45 reps only once every 5 days? I don't see any added strain going from the second example to the first example. Sure, the routine is different, but Smith's arm isn't suddenly more strained and tired from pitching 1 inning every other day insted of 7 innings every 5th day. I concur that we don't know why Thornburg had a problem. I would love to see Smith have less appearances in the interest of staying fresh. I just don't know if I would go out of my way to ensure it.

 

I don't think anyone is sure which is worse on the arm. However, most pitchers make this transition in the minors when they've failed at starting, or in the majors when their career at starting is over. My concern is taking someone who has always started and throwing them into the bullpen with no prep. Sort of like taking a marathon runner and telling him to run sprints, or to your weight lifting reference, taking a guy who lifts for muscle tone and putting him in a power-lifting competition without any chance to prepare. The chance for him to hear a "pop" goes up significantly when he lifts the heavy weights his body isn't used to... even though he's only lifting them once when he's used to lifting lighter weights many times.

 

But again, I don't know... it's just a concern of mine. I have other concerns such as: will Smith/Thornburg be better prepared to be in the starting this year or in the future by spending this season in the MLB bullpen, or in the AAA rotation, and will the value of having Smith/Thornburg in this year's bullpen be of greater value than having them in the starting rotation in six years?

 

Now, the Brewers are in first place, so the argument of "is it worth it" leans more towards "yes," but the Brewers put them in the bullpen to start the season. Therefore, they were willing to give up a year's service time of two of their most promising young starting pitchers to pitch them in the bullpen when the playoff odds were pretty slim. Really, this leads me to believe that people here have more confidence in Thornburg's/Smith's future as starters than the Brewers have. Note that they didn't put Nelson in the pen. His future is in the rotation, while I think they're grooming Thornburg to be the future closer and Smith a set-up man.

[TooLiveBrew]

Honestly I think one thing to keep in mind through all of this is that... it's all still just pitching. I think players are able to adapt much more easily than we'd imagine sometimes. The bullpen/rotation discussions remind me of discussions about position players switching positions. It's all still just baseball.

[jerichoholicninja]

Considering spending a year in the bullpen before being moved to the rotation is not uncommon these days, I'm not too worried.

[lcbj68c]

Honestly I think one thing to keep in mind through all of this is that... it's all still just pitching. I think players are able to adapt much more easily than we'd imagine sometimes. The bullpen/rotation discussions remind me of discussions about position players switching positions. It's all still just baseball.

 

Ditto that thought +1

[AdvantageSchneider]

I don't really care about Smith's value as a starter in the future. I care about his value as a reliever this year. RR used him a lot early, and that's fine, but you have to adjust later on to get him some rest. There is no reason to pitch him in a game with an 8 run lead, or pitch K-rod for that matter.