The "This Cost Us the Playoffs in 2014" thread

[jerichoholicninja]

RRR says "we run on contact with runners on 2nd and 3rd. He just did what he was told."

 

Quite possibly biting the bullet for one of his players.

 

Definitely biting the bullet for Herrera's mistake. If he actually instructs his players to run on contact on 2nd and 3rd - no matter how many outs - I seriously have to question why he would have a job.

 

He's been doing that since he took the team over. I have no doubt Ron told him to go on contact. The amount of times this hurt us last year was discussed ad nauseum. It's back to rear its ugly head, or Ron's stupid head.

[HiAndTight]

So within the span of 1 week:

 

- Our manager "assumes" that someone is warming in the bullpen and is forced to put in a cold reliever. We go on to give up 3 runs and lose the game.

 

- Our aggressive style comes back to bite as we essentially forfeit a run when Gomez tries to go from 1st to 3rd with 2 outs and nullifies Braun's run. We go on to lose 2-1.

 

- We have a runner on 3rd with 1 out in a walkout situation. We send in a AAAA pinch runner on 3rd for one of our best players. He sprints for the plate on a looping line drive out to SS. We lose in extras.

 

 

Is it really a wonder why most experts believe our fast start was just that and we're now headed back to the pack? We're giving games away left and right. We're not losing games, we're giving them away. The tongue-in-cheek theme of this thread is ironic.

 

And for everyone one of these there are 5 things we've done right to counter it. I've yet to see a team make the playoffs that hasn't make mistakes throughout the season.

 

But, for the record;

1-He "assumed," someone was warming up because he told someone to get warmed up. It's a pretty fair assumption and also a rare one. It's funny how great managers are when we're winning, but bad when we're losing. How about his lineup decision to hit Segura leadoff, Braun second, Luc 3rd and Gomez 4th? Or to go with K-Rod to start the season. Or the thousand other moves he's made?

 

2-Yeah, it really sucked that Gomez nullified a run. But that's who he is as a player. He's also been worth 10 WAR since the start of last season and is one of the top players in all of baseball right now. And if Braun's running hard, he scores.

 

3-Sure. Lucroy is one of our best hitters. And if he gets thrown out by a step at the plate, THAT is your reason for why we're "giving," games away. As it was, obviously we were running on contact there. But to pinch run for your catcher with the fastest guy on your bench there is a no-brainer.

 

Now, as for the giving games away thing.

 

One game Smith came in without having warmed up. A fluke situation. He said he was ready, threw a 93 MPH fastball on his first pitch, gave up a seeing eye single with the IF drawn in to give up 2 runs.

The second game we lost 2-1. So at BEST if everything plays out as is, we are tied up.

The third game, at best it's 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs.

 

Not exactly like we had big leads in each game. It's amazing how fickle we can be as fans sometimes.

 

I thought the first post was ridiculous until I realized it was in fact tongue in cheek. You can go to every single close game and point to something that happened during that game and say this team or that team "gave," it away.

 

He's been doing that since he took the team over. I have no doubt Ron told him to go on contact. The amount of times this hurt us last year was discussed ad nauseum. It's back to rear its ugly head, or Ron's stupid head.

 

Yeah, he's been doing it...just as pretty much every manager in baseball has been doing it. So if it's biting Ron's "stupid head," then it's biting just about every managers "stupid head."

 

 

This just reminds me of the post(can't recall who it was) who said they go around to other teams boards and every fan base complains about their manager. Matheny was roughed up particularly bad in St Louis this year just as TLR did for a long time before him. It makes you wonder if there is a good manager in baseball out there?

[jerichoholicninja]

He's been doing that since he took the team over. I have no doubt Ron told him to go on contact. The amount of times this hurt us last year was discussed ad nauseum. It's back to rear its ugly head, or Ron's stupid head.

 

Yeah, he's been doing it...just as pretty much every manager in baseball has been doing it. So if it's biting Ron's "stupid head," then it's biting just about every managers "stupid head."

 

I don't watch many games that aren't Brewer games but how often do the Brewers' opponents run into outs at the plate? I'm sure it happens occasionally but it sure does not happen as often as the Brewers do it. That's on Ron.

[sveumrules]

Brewers are currently 13th in MLB in base running per the fangraphs team leaderboards. So while they are running into some stupid outs on the bases I wouldn't say it is at "Cost Us the Playoffs" level bad considering they are slightly above average when compared to the rest of the league.

 

Then again, many would say the low scoring offense that is currently 5th in the NL in runs scored is "Costing Us the Playoffs" so I could be completely off base.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Brewers are currently 13th in MLB in base running per the fangraphs team leaderboards. So while they are running into some stupid outs on the bases I wouldn't say it is at "Cost Us the Playoffs" level bad considering they are slightly above average when compared to the rest of the league.

 

Then again, many would say the low scoring offense that is currently 5th in the NL in runs scored is "Costing Us the Playoffs" so I could be completely off base.

 

Slightly misleading, as they've played more games than several teams, and are 8th in runs per game. (middle of the pack, but still.....)

[Crash2303]

Letting hot-hitting 26 year old Juan Francisco go over a 37 year old washed up "gritty" veteran who plays overrated defense in Lyle Overbay.

[monty57]

A) Allowing Herrera on the MLB roster. He plays every position, but none of them well. He has speed, but doesn't know how to run bases. He can't hit.

 

B) Extending Overbay's career for one season too long. He plays one position, but not well enough to keep him on the roster. He has no speed. He can't hit.

 

C) Adding that one expensive year on the end of Ramirez's contract so that we could get him for "nothing" in our 2012 "go for it" year. His inability to stay on the field has led to more playing time for Overbay, Herrera, Bianchi, and when healthy he has been lackluster. Let's hope he's healthy and productive for the remainder of the year to make this one a positive rather than a negative.

[HiAndTight]

He's been doing that since he took the team over. I have no doubt Ron told him to go on contact. The amount of times this hurt us last year was discussed ad nauseum. It's back to rear its ugly head, or Ron's stupid head.

 

Yeah, he's been doing it...just as pretty much every manager in baseball has been doing it. So if it's biting Ron's "stupid head," then it's biting just about every managers "stupid head."

 

I don't watch many games that aren't Brewer games but how often do the Brewers' opponents run into outs at the plate? I'm sure it happens occasionally but it sure does not happen as often as the Brewers do it. That's on Ron.

 

 

 

You think it's at all possible that is because when the Brewers make an out at home it stands out more?

 

These are the types of knee jerk reactions that come about when you root for a team and a specific play sticks in your head. Hell, someone literally said that Gomez was the worst base runner on the team.

I'm also guessing you take for granted the several-several times Gomez has made things happen on the base paths(or Segura) like an error on a throw to 2nd.

 

 

Here are some actual facts, not perceptions we have from watching the team we root for.

 

The Brewers lead major league baseball in taking extra bases.

The Brewers have made 5 outs at home. Only 4 teams in the NL have made FEWER outs at home.

The Brewers are exactly at the league average in makings outs on the base paths with 16. Colorado has 24. The LAD, CWS, Tigers, STL, Philly are all teams with 4-8 more as well as several other teams atop or near the top of their division.

 

So you certainly can't be "sure," that the Brewers are thrown out at home on plays like these during RR's tenure. Sure, it's easy to insult Roenicke with third grade insults(stupid head) but the facts don't bear it out.

 

 

The Brewers are a good base running team, and of the few plays here or there that have been ugly, not one "cost," us a game, merely cost us a shot at tying games up and potentially winning later, and as such, certainly isn't costing us a playoff spot. But it sure is easy to take shots at Roenicke every day.

[HiAndTight]

A) Allowing Herrera on the MLB roster. He plays every position, but none of them well. He has speed, but doesn't know how to run bases. He can't hit.

 

B) Extending Overbay's career for one season too long. He plays one position, but not well enough to keep him on the roster. He has no speed. He can't hit.

 

C) Adding that one expensive year on the end of Ramirez's contract so that we could get him for "nothing" in our 2012 "go for it" year. His inability to stay on the field has led to more playing time for Overbay, Herrera, Bianchi, and when healthy he has been lackluster. Let's hope he's healthy and productive for the remainder of the year to make this one a positive rather than a negative.

 

 

If these are holding true in another month, I'll definitely agree with you. But every team has some really bad players on their teams right now. Veterans who didn't pan out. Overbay should be gone today.

Herrera is a big problem because who else are our options? I think we'll try and trade for a utility IF'er. It's one of the reasons I like that they're playing Arcia and Rivera at 2nd and SS right now. Developing utility IF'ers is obviously underrated but important.

 

The third one, I think we likely would have just signed someone like Reynolds. There really weren't much better options. And Ramirez is usually a slot starter. Had we not signed him, it's likely that we would have given these guys even more at bats, or an older Lyle Overbay version.

 

 

Hunter Morris+Taylor Green+Bianchi for Falu, Herrera and Overbay would be a nice start IMO. More punch from the left side and versatility. Plus both Green and Morris look like clear upgrades.

 

Bianchi has to stay because he's a very good defender and we need someone to backup SS.

[3and2Fastball]

Small sample but Juan Francisco has a 162 OPS+ this year. Cutting him for Overbay was a big mistake. If you believe in WAR, that decision cost us 1.5 wins so far

[DuWayne Steurer]

How many games can we completely blow this week before this thread isn't really 'tongue in cheek'?

[gregmag]

I don't mind perspective, and I agree that RR has made some excellent decisions this year. But I'll respond to some of the condescending pushback above by wondering why some posters here will forgive this manager absolutely everything, completely whitewashing his many mistakes.

 

He extols Falu, a bad hitter, because Falu doesn't strike out. Hmmm . . . Why is it patently moronic again to fetishize bad hitters who make contact? Does Falu's game-ending double play ring any bells?

 

How about tonight's choke-fest? Garza, our worst starting pitcher by a considerable margin, is over 100 pitches in the 7th. His shortstop screws up a dp ball. RR visits the mound. Does he pull his pitcher? No, because he has his Eighth Inning Guy warming up in the pen, and this is only the seventh inning! My goodness -- you have to leave your starter in! It's not like you have other relief pitchers on your payroll.

 

Yes, other teams make mistakes too, and we do a lot of things well. But to make the playoffs, especially over a more talented team, you have to meet a higher standard. You get to lose some games, but I'm pretty sure you don't get to projectile vomit four games in just over a week. We'll see. If we still make the postseason, then I'll happily confess to overreacting.

[lcbj68c]

One reason I don't think these things cost the Brewers the playoffs is because I believe the Brewers are much closer to the 2 games under.500 pace that they've played minus the 9 game winning streak.

[adambr2]

RRR says "we run on contact with runners on 2nd and 3rd. He just did what he was told."

 

He also said that was the first time in his entire tenure here with us that the contact play has backfired on us. So I'm not sure he's actually caught the end of all our games.

[sveumrules]

For me personally I guess I just don't see what purpose is served by getting distressed by a few blown games in the last week of May. So much can happen in the next four months of baseball. There's no way to know what September holds in May.

 

Regardless of tonight's results we'll go to bed in first place. No one realistically expected that on opening day. How did we get here? By being extremely lucky, winning close games. We all knew that luck was bound to even out at some point and are witnessing that currently.

 

If we win 60 games the rest of the way and the Cardinals win 62 I'm sure people will find plenty of people to blame for us blowing our way to a 90 win season.

[adambr2]

I expected us to come back down to earth, just that the manner in which we have has been pretty frustrating.

 

I didn't expect us to win the division and I don't today.

[gregmag]

"We live in the best of all possible worlds."

 

Having your luck even out . . . that just happens. Machado snags that Reynolds bullet tonight? Agonizing, but it happens. You can't ask for a better chance than that.

 

You can ask for your manager to avoid stupid mistakes, especially of the epidemic fashion. And yes, if we win 90 games and miss the playoffs, with this many pivotal mental errors in one stretch in late May? Call me ungrateful, but I'll consider that a blown opportunity.

[TURBO]

I don't mind perspective, and I agree that RR has made some excellent decisions this year. But I'll respond to some of the condescending pushback above by wondering why some posters here will forgive this manager absolutely everything, completely whitewashing his many mistakes.

 

 

Good take...awaiting answers anxiously...

[gregmag]

Wasn't I just saying that RR is a godlike genius?

[DuWayne Steurer]

RRR says "we run on contact with runners on 2nd and 3rd. He just did what he was told."

 

He also said that was the first time in his entire tenure here with us that the contact play has backfired on us. So I'm not sure he's actually caught the end of all our games.

 

 

Thank you for making me literally, laugh out loud, in what has been a very roller coaster week as a Brewer fan. :D

[DuWayne Steurer]

For me personally I guess I just don't see what purpose is served by getting distressed by a few blown games in the last week of May. So much can happen in the next four months of baseball. There's no way to know what September holds in May.

 

Regardless of tonight's results we'll go to bed in first place. No one realistically expected that on opening day. How did we get here? By being extremely lucky, winning close games. We all knew that luck was bound to even out at some point and are witnessing that currently.

 

If we win 60 games the rest of the way and the Cardinals win 62 I'm sure people will find plenty of people to blame for us blowing our way to a 90 win season.

 

 

Games won and lost in May count exactly as much as games won and lost in September, yes? Brewers got 100% lucky tonight. First, they blow a 5 run lead, then Machado put them back in the game with a 2 out, 9th inning error, and then Showalter Yosted his club by intentionally walking the winning run, with a historically decent hitting pitcher on deck.

 

Whatever we debate about the importance of wins in May, or a single win (or 2 or 3) not costing them the playoffs, of the massive amounts of hyperbole getting thrown about in this thread, I think for tonight, we can all agree it's nice to be on the other side of a win like this for once, right?

[monty57]

For me personally I guess I just don't see what purpose is served by getting distressed by a few blown games in the last week of May. So much can happen in the next four months of baseball. There's no way to know what September holds in May.

 

Regardless of tonight's results we'll go to bed in first place. No one realistically expected that on opening day. How did we get here? By being extremely lucky, winning close games. We all knew that luck was bound to even out at some point and are witnessing that currently.

 

If we win 60 games the rest of the way and the Cardinals win 62 I'm sure people will find plenty of people to blame for us blowing our way to a 90 win season.

 

I'm not so sure about the bolded part. A couple of weeks ago, when the Brewers were still "hot," I mentioned that they would have some down times. I just cautioned that people shouldn't get too high on the highs, as it leads to getting depressed when the team plays poorly. Finally, I said that a hot start didn't really change much other than it makes the team more likely to be "buyers" than "sellers." All teams have ups and downs, and when they come during the season doesn't really matter. A ".500 talent team" will probably end up somewhere around .500.

 

Many posters didn't agree. I was told I suffered from Gambler's Fallacy (I personally don't believe that a situation with thousands of variables like a baseball season is akin to a coin flip) and told that if we are truly a .500-talent team, we would play .500 ball the remainder of the season and therefore make the playoffs. I don't think that's how it necessarily works, it just means that a "hot streak" came at the start of the season as opposed to the end of the season like the last two years.

 

I will just reiterate what I said then. The team will have highs and lows throughout the season. Enjoy the season, but don't get too high on the highs, or depressed when some things go wrong. Those things happen. I worry about "big picture/5-year plan stuff" all the time, but once the season starts that stuff is pretty much theoretical (other than trade deadline), so it's time to sit back and enjoy the show with the roller coaster ride it brings.

[JohnBriggs12]

This season has yet to be defined in terms of what may ultimately cost them. In 2012 it was a bullpen that was historically bad especially in the first half. In 2013 it was injuries/suspensions that cost them the middle of the lineup along with putrid production on the right side of the infield in the first half combined with an ill timed pitching slump in May that led to worst month in franchise history. This year they've gotten two months into the season without a season defining weakness showing. For that we should all be pleased. Starting pitching has slumped again in May but not to the degree it did last year. If it rebounds later in June like it did last year, they could be in it all year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

As long as the Reds and Pirates continue to limp along, barring a series of team-crushing injuries the Brewers are going to contend all season long. I expect the Cardinals to end up winning the division, but they are far from a dominant team - for now. They do have minor league resources to help the big league club via callup or as trade chips.

 

2 wild cards per league gives virtually any team over 0.500 through August a realistic chance at making the postseason. That alone will keep the Brewers in contention.

 

June looks like a month where the Brewers could get red-hot if they keep scoring runs, which would set them up very nicely for the 2nd half of the season. lots of games against struggling teams.

[logan82]

This season has yet to be defined in terms of what may ultimately cost them. In 2012 it was a bullpen that was historically bad especially in the first half. In 2013 it was injuries/suspensions that cost them the middle of the lineup along with putrid production on the right side of the infield in the first half combined with an ill timed pitching slump in May that led to worst month in franchise history. This year they've gotten two months into the season without a season defining weakness showing. For that we should all be pleased. Starting pitching has slumped again in May but not to the degree it did last year. If it rebounds later in June like it did last year, they could be in it all year.

or maybe we just were not talented enough to make the playoffs in 2012 or 2013 to begin with.