Wang. Overbay. Bianchi. Herrera.

[igor67]

One important thing to consider is that Scooter is relatively light (but not too light) in the power and patience department. He is never going to be a great walker or major power threat, but he is still young enough that he could grow more in both areas. Part of the play you are making with Scooter is that he is OK and cheap now, and has a chance to be better than that.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd almost always take the guy with the better batting average in similar OPS'es. That said, Scooter is still having his held up by that hot start last year when guys were throwing it right at him as a "book not out on him" type player. It happens to a lot of good batting average guys that come up. Sprinkle in some luck and you get an overvalued streak. We saw it with Iglesias last year, we are seeing it with Solarte this year, and Scooter had it for a while last year.

 

By mid-2015, if we let him stay up in the majors the whole time, his batting average will probably be in the .270 ballpark for his career with no power and an OBP around .300...it may even drop there by the end of the season.

 

To me, he's second on the chopping block behind Bianchi. Overbay is in a dead heat there. Herrera is a slightly inferior hitter but provides value by being able to sub at multiple positions.

 

Part of my reasoning for wanting to send down Scooter right now is it would trigger to me as a fan that the organization "gets it" and isn't going to plop a .690 1-position platoon hitter in there for 5 more years. I already know that they have minimal feelings for keeping Bianchi or Herrera beyond 2014.

[HiAndTight]

Back in 2012, in 200+ plate appearances, Herrera posted a .340 OBP. Even if he does nothing else, he showed an ability to get on base, while being passably competent at multiple positions in the field. I'm not sure why he's not taking walks this year. No explanation.

 

The guy to add to your list is Logan Schafer. He can't hit, can't hit for power, and can't get on base. The only thing he does is play solid defense. The problem is, that's not how RRR uses him. He plays him, (and hits him leadoff!) and expects him to do things he can not do. Schafer is now 27, creeping up on a full season's worth of MLB plate appearances, and isn't approaching anything close to a big-league quality hitter. The only thing this guy should be doing is late inning defensive replacement, pinch running, or getting the occasional 'last man off the bench lefty pinch hitter" duties.

 

 

This is akin to saying that Roenicke has used Thornburg and or Smith as mop up guys this year.

He hasn't. The closest either have come is Thornburg coming in for Gallardo and Smith coming in with a 5 run lead after he was already warmed up and the Brewers scored 4 in their half of an inning.

 

Schafer meanwhile has ONE start this year as a leadoff hitter, and it was when Gomez was out of the lineup and we were putting out a lineup similar to a AAA lineup and had VERY poor options.

 

 

Maybe part of the problem is the perception that Roenicke is "always," doing these things that he's simply not doing.

[HiAndTight]

I'd send down Scooter

 

Is this supposed to be in blue? Send down Scooter? huh? Once again, I am shocked at the perception of Scooter.

 

Outside of that hot start that is not backed up by any of his minor league numbers last year, this is the perception of him. He's a .270/.305/.390 guy that is 'OK' on defense, can't play every day because of a platoon situation, and only plays 2B. He's also wasting a roster spot.

 

Those were also his numbers in the minors essentially. In the PCL, you usually subtract .100 or so from the OPS for guys at .900 to project them in the majors. The way Scooter hits, I'd subtract a bit less, but he was around .730-.750 there, so I'll peg him in the .680-.700 range. Maybe if he gets favorable enough platoon games, a shade over .700.

 

 

First of all, if you want to send Gennett down, who are you going to replace him with?

Second, his minor league numbers actually do back up what he did last year...to a degree. Nobody expected him to his around .330 as a full time player, but his minor league numbers were very good. He was a ~.300 hitter with a ~.340 OBP and a .410 SLG. That was with him moving up one level each year and him being young for each league.

 

Part of my reasoning for wanting to send down Scooter right now is it would trigger to me as a fan that the organization "gets it" and isn't going to plop a .690 1-position platoon hitter in there for 5 more years. I already know that they have minimal feelings for keeping Bianchi or Herrera beyond 2014.

 

I don't need any messages from the organization regarding what they're planning on doing the next 5 years. And it's just as premature to call him a .690 hitter as it was to call him an .830 guy last year. Actually, it's more premature this year.

 

He's 23 years old and has 135 AB's this year. Not sure when that was enough time to waive the white flag and give up on a guy, particularly when you don't have any other options.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd bet a lot of money that Gennett over his career is closer to a .690 guy than .830. If you put up a .697 OPS as he did last year (yes, I know his splits vs. RHP were better) in the PCL, you aren't magically going to hit over .800 in the majors for a sustained period unless you're some sort of 19 year-old stud prospect that is just realizing his power as he he hits the majors.

 

In terms of who they would replace him with? Weeks. I'd rather sink or swim hoping he can become his old self. Weeks has shown he's been a .750+ guy before. I really don't think Gennett can be that over the long haul. Plus, Weeks did that playing every day, not cherry-picking matchups.

 

This is why I'd keep Herrera over him. Play Weeks at 2B and Herrera can serve as the SS, 2B, 3B(?), CF backup. Use the roster space for Gindl and pick up another corner guy from somewhere for Bianchi's spot.

[Thurston Fluff]

What has Gindl done that makes you think he is going to be better than Gennett?

[bill hAll Star]

Gindl has a much better track record in the minors. He's not ideal, but he projects to a guy that has much more power and a .770ish LH platoon split.

 

Of course I'd like to get a LH corner bat from elsewhere in the league, but Gindl can at least hit righties and is preferable, even if in a platoon role/off the bench, than to playing Gennett 75% of the games at 2B.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think you are forgetting the age and experience difference between the two when you project them.

[trwi7]

What has Gindl done that makes you think he is going to be better than Gennett?

 

Well he's hit better while being younger than Gennett at the different leagues.

 

.292/.366/.458 career minor league line for Gindl compared to .297/.337/.409 for Gennett. Gindl also hit .240/.340/.439 in his 150 or so plate appearances last year and his BABIP was only .262 compared to .380 for Gennett. Now that Gennett's BABIP is back in the normal range (.306 this year) we're seeing the kind of hitter he is and what many of us expected him to be.

 

Not sure I'd send him to the minors when there is much more dead weight to cut from this roster but I'd rather have Gindl up here now than Herrera or Overbay and probably Gennett as well. Especially when our 5th outfielder is currently Herrera.

[trwi7]

I think you are forgetting the age and experience difference between the two when you project them.

 

What are you talking about?

 

Gindl was in A ball at 19. Scooter was 20.

 

Gindl was in A+ at 20. Scooter was 21.

 

Gindl was in AA at 21. Scooter was 22.

 

Gindl was in AAA at 22. Scooter was 23.

[Thurston Fluff]

My bad I had the ages screwed up. Experience wise Gindl has had more go arounds at AAA and has not improved as far as I can tell. Which was the experience part I was referring to. I just am not that impressed with someone who cannot consistently improve at a level he's played for three years in a row.

[trwi7]

My bad I had the ages screwed up. Experience wise Gindl has had more go arounds at AAA and has not improved as far as I can tell. Which was the experience part I was referring to. I just am not that impressed with someone who cannot consistently improve at a level he's played for three years in a row.

 

I guess that's not a big deal to me. I mean it's not like a guy who hit .300/.350/.450 for 5 years in AAA is going to suddenly improve to .350/.450/.600 just because he's been in AAA for years.

 

What I do like about Gindl is that he's hit .292/.368/.468 vs righties in AAA. That's a valuable bat to have with Davis struggling horribly against righties this year (.171/.210/.316) even if Gindl only gives say .240/.325/.425 against righties.

 

I'd also like Taylor Green up here as well. I know he's not on the 40 man roster but he could just take Overbay's spot. Even if he only hits as "well" as Overbay, he has position flexibility that Overbay doesn't.

 

Like I said, I definitely wouldn't send Gennett down with Overbay and Herrera on the roster but I do like the idea of giving Rickie more starts to see if he has at least gained something back from 09-11 seasons.

 

But this is getting way off topic.

[sveumrules]

Lyle Overbay, Elian Herrera, Jeff Bianchi and Wei-Chung Wang.

 

These are four members of our twenty-five man active roster. Sixteen percent of the men that put on the Milwaukee Brewers uniform on a nightly basis.

 

Can any of us say with a degree of confidence that even two of these players would make a 25 man roster for any other team in baseball?

 

Yes. Every single team in MLB has just as many useless players as the Milwaukee Brewers. No team has 25 players all of whom are comfortably above replacement level. We threw away over 1150 plate appearances on Yuni and McGehee in 2011 and still managed to win 96 games.

[adambr2]

Lyle Overbay, Elian Herrera, Jeff Bianchi and Wei-Chung Wang.

 

These are four members of our twenty-five man active roster. Sixteen percent of the men that put on the Milwaukee Brewers uniform on a nightly basis.

 

Can any of us say with a degree of confidence that even two of these players would make a 25 man roster for any other team in baseball?

 

Yes. Every single team in MLB has just as many useless players as the Milwaukee Brewers. No team has 25 players all of whom are comfortably above replacement level. We threw away over 1150 plate appearances on Yuni and McGehee in 2011 and still managed to win 96 games.

 

Betancourt and McGehee, though bad starters, OPS'ed well over the .543 and .318 currently carried by Overbay and Bianchi.

 

It's also apples to oranges because you're talking about a player who is exclusively a first baseman, arguably the easiest position to fill in a pinch.

 

I bet you cannot find a single first base only bench player in MLB who is OPS'ing as low as Overbay with even close to the same amount of AB's.

[sveumrules]

Sure YuniB & McGehee OPSed higher than Bianchi. How was their defense at 2B, 3B and SS though?

 

Yonder Alonso has 160 plate appearances and a 193/238/287 triple slash good for a 47 wRC+ identical to that of Overbay. Joaquin Arias on the first place Giants has a 148/188/148 triple slash in more plate appearances than Bianchi.

[igor67]

It is no longer 1997, it is a lot closer to 1987 in terms of run environment and that is absolutely huge.

an .800 OPS gets you to the top 6 of league qualifiers at 2nd base this year and top 7 of SS as one handy way of looking at the context. I'm having more difficulty getting current overall league averages, but it has dropped a ton from even 5 years ago. Average defense and a .700 OPS for a middle infielder though is pretty close to average production. So while yes we have some guys not hitting, there is a lot of that going around

[DuWayne Steurer]

Back in 2012, in 200+ plate appearances, Herrera posted a .340 OBP. Even if he does nothing else, he showed an ability to get on base, while being passably competent at multiple positions in the field. I'm not sure why he's not taking walks this year. No explanation.

 

The guy to add to your list is Logan Schafer. He can't hit, can't hit for power, and can't get on base. The only thing he does is play solid defense. The problem is, that's not how RRR uses him. He plays him, (and hits him leadoff!) and expects him to do things he can not do. Schafer is now 27, creeping up on a full season's worth of MLB plate appearances, and isn't approaching anything close to a big-league quality hitter. The only thing this guy should be doing is late inning defensive replacement, pinch running, or getting the occasional 'last man off the bench lefty pinch hitter" duties.

 

 

This is akin to saying that Roenicke has used Thornburg and or Smith as mop up guys this year.

He hasn't. The closest either have come is Thornburg coming in for Gallardo and Smith coming in with a 5 run lead after he was already warmed up and the Brewers scored 4 in their half of an inning.

 

Schafer meanwhile has ONE start this year as a leadoff hitter, and it was when Gomez was out of the lineup and we were putting out a lineup similar to a AAA lineup and had VERY poor options.

 

 

Maybe part of the problem is the perception that Roenicke is "always," doing these things that he's simply not doing.

 

 

I didn't say 'always', did I? Don't strawman me. Hitting a .280 OBP guy leadoff once, is one time too many. Just because he was subbing for Gomez doesn't mean he has to hit him leadoff. That's a very Yost-ian move, if ever there was one.

 

He's also used Herrera in the leadoff spot, FWIW.

[gregmag]

I don't like the argument that bench guys always suck, so don't worry that ours suck. That's an opportunity to get a comparative advantage.

 

There's also a difference between mediocre and awful. Scooter has been pretty mediocre. I don't think he'll be awful. Platooning him with Weeks has generated decent production. Not a problem.

 

Overbay, OTOH, has been horrific. This isn't new, either; he's been terrible for a while. I have no illusions about Hunter Morris, but it would almost be impossible for him to be worse.

 

I like the idea of platooning Gindl and Davis. The problem is that Gindl really play much cf. You need somebody around who can. Maybe that's the reason you keep Herrera over Bianchi, then bring up Green in place of Schafer. Gindl becomes your backup corner of and third cf; Herrera is your 5th of / 2nd cf / backup middle infielder; Green backs up corner if and in a pinch at 2b.

 

OUT: Overbay, Schafer, Bianchi

IN: Morris, Gindl, Green

 

Each of those three moves replaces a horrible hitter with a poor-to-decent hitter. You lose some positional flexibility, but that's why you keep Herrera around. If somebody gets hurt, then you bring back Schafer or Bianchi as needed.

 

I'm sure I'm forgetting something about why this is a bad idea.

 

I'd keep Wang. I haven't heard a really sound argument about why stashing him in the bp is hurting us. That said, I would definitely use the dl however we could.

[The stache]

"Wang...he's never thrown higher than A ball"

 

That's incorrect. He'd never been higher than rookie ball. A ball is a considerable step up from rookie ball. Rookie ball isn't even on the level of the top college leagues, Pac-12, Big 12 or SEC, or ACC.

 

You're right, JohnBriggs12. That's a my bad. I was going off of what I heard on the radio. I hadn't looked much at his minor league stats.

 

I guess the feeling is that there is somebody else we could be bringing up that could take Wang's place, and help this club to win.

 

But, if Herrera, Overbay and Bianchi are getting 25 man roster spots, too, complaining about Wang is really silly. At least at some point down the road he might be worthwhile to us.

[The stache]

I agree - great overview.

 

Hunter Morris should be brought up today. I just don't see why he is in the minors. Overbay is done. Get it done Doug - bring him up.

 

Two words. Mat Gamel. In other words, the last sweet swinging power hitting first base prospect that we putzed around with with until two torn ligaments cost him any chance of a future with the Brewers.

 

This is a pattern I've seen with Melvin over the years. Sometimes, good players are blocked from advancing to the Majors. If you look at the Los Angeles Dodgers, they've got a kid named Joc Pederson that is going to be good. Real good. Really really good. Unfortunately, they have such a log jam in the outfield, he can't get any playing time with the parent club.

 

Pederson at AAA Albuquerque this season: 44 games played, 170 ABs, 42 runs, 61 hits, 8 doubles, 0 triples, 14 home runs, 29 RBI, 13 stolen bases, 33 BBs, 54 Ks, .359 AVG, and a slash line of .463/.653/1.116.

 

But with the Brewers, some of the guys that we have in the minors that have proven whatever they're going to prove, continue to toil wondering if their day is ever going to come.

 

Melvin just waits too long with some of these prospects.

 

Khris Davis was 25 before he ever made it to the bigs.

 

Who's our top prospect right now? Jimmy Nelson. How old? 24. 25 on June 5th.

 

Most of the other teams in the Majors, their top prospects are seeing the Majors at least a year or two younger than those in Milwaukee.

 

Hunter Morris is 26 in October.

 

How much longer, Doug?

[The stache]

I'm not sold that Hunter Morris is the answer, either. But I do know that he's about to turn 26, and there's no viable explanation why he's not getting that chance. At 24 he was our Minor League Player of the Year. He didn't get his shot then, and he had a subpar season at Nashville.

 

Three ways of looking at this:

Keep Overbay where he is, he continues to suck.

Get rid of Overbay, take a look at Morris. He sucks.

Get rid of Overbay, take a look at Morris. He performs well.

 

I don't really see any down side to giving him his chance. But having him run on the squeaky hamster wheel indefinitely isn't going to answer any questions.

 

BTW, just to sprinkle some cheese on top of this fun little discussion. Has anybody seen what Michael Brantley has been doing with Cleveland? It's funny, he was the player to be named later in the Sabathia for LaPorta deal, yet Brantley has outplayed him.

 

Brantley is hitting .292 with 10 doubles, 9 home runs, 33 RBI, and a nifty little slash line of .362/.515/.877

[SoupTown]

Great discussion.

 

My read of your brilliant minds has me agree with: you keep only ONE of Herrara / Bianchi. Obviously Bianchi is the keeper. And I think Herrara, with options, goes back to AAA.

 

You must bring up one of Green/Morris and let Overbay go. I guess Green with his AAA year of nearly 1.000 OPS and his mid June out clause and his flexibility is the one.

[logan82]

I'm not sold that Hunter Morris is the answer, either. But I do know that he's about to turn 26, and there's no viable explanation why he's not getting that chance. At 24 he was our Minor League Player of the Year. He didn't get his shot then, and he had a subpar season at Nashville.

That season looked like an outlier at the time and he has done little to prove otherwise. When the option is Overbay I don't think there is a good reason not to try Morris.

[Invader3K]

I don't think Morris is going to end up being a great MLB player, but Overbay is washed up and terrible. I agree that there's no reason to keep him around. Morris at least deserves a shot...if he fails, so what? At least we'll know what we actually have in him finally.

[SoupTown]

From gregmag: I don't like the argument that bench guys always suck, so don't worry that ours suck. That's an opportunity to get a comparative advantage

 

That should be a tattoo on Doug's leg. It seems to me every year I wish we had paid a little bit more for a little bit better bench. I was really sad when we were outbid a half million on Hariston Jr (spelling?). A guy that could actually BAT and play decent everywhere. I don't like the idea of the inexperienced guys (like Shafer) being the bench guys. I like the idea of a Hermida who we know 'can' MLB produce.

 

I really, really do think if a GM spent an extra 3 to 5 mill on the bench he will pick up 2 or 3 wins over the year. Money well spent.