Trade partner - Tampa Bay Rays [Latest -- rumored ask for David Price: Nelson, Thornburg, & Coulter (post #94)]

[paul253]

I agree with this and with torts that a 5th starter in 2016 can be added in free agency if they are still viewing themselves as a contender

 

This is my problem with the organizational thinking. For years.....decades....the Brewers were unable to develop any of their own pitching. We went from Ben Sheets to Gallardo to Peralta. That's three good homegrown pitchers in 12 years. In the meantime our rotation consisted of high priced free agents like Suppan, Looper, Lohse, Garza, and Wolf, aces that we've emptied our system for like Sabathia, Greinke, and Marcum, and a whole lot of low ceiling bad pitchers (Santos, Obermueller, Bush, Kinney, Franklin, Rusch, Ohka, Vargas, Narveson, and so on). Now we finally have some homegrown talent ready for a shot at starting in the major leagues, namely Nelson and Thornburg.......and we are talking about trading them for a year and a half of an ace?

 

The point of me bringing up 2016 is that without Nelson and Thornburg we are back to our usual one homegrown pitcher with the remaining 4 coming from free agency or a trade. While it's certainly not the end of the world, it does cost money or players to get those pitchers. Signing multiple free agents makes you less likely to sign the superstar. And trading away prospects, even lower ceiling prospects, hurts depth and you have to spend additional money on bench guys. We may never be able to afford a David Price or a Clayton Kershaw, but if we handle our finances right we could get someone a step lower. In 2016, for instance, Jordan Zimmerman is a FA. Maybe we could make a run at him. Or they could have made a run at Lester or Shields this off season if they had given Smith or Thornburg a shot at the rotation instead of signing Garza. Because we don't have any in-house options for the rotation we end up spending money to get the #2-#4 type pitcher, which is exactly what will happen again in 2016 when Price leaves. Either we'll have to pony up for a 37 year old Lohse or an already losing it Gallardo or we'll have to spend money or players on someone else.

 

As far as flipping Price in the offseason that's not Melvin's M.O. He won't move Price until, at the earliest, next trade deadline if we are out of it.

[torts]

thats also assuming that we have zero pitchers from A+/AA/AAA make any strides and improvements to jump to the majors by 2016. we have Fiers, Pena, Hellweg, Jungmann, Bradley, etc etc etc, if the front office continues to be proactive and promote players quickly through the system we could have even more (Wagner, Lopez, whoeverelse). To think that the only pitching prospect we have to have any value in the rotation in 2 years is being rather dismissive of the talent we have, which is how this fanbase has thought of our team over the last 4 - 5 years... decade...

[jmeks23]

Man, are some of you guys serious? You would not only send some of our top prospects away, but current major leaguers?

 

I just don't understand how you can justify getting rid of Segura, Gennett, or even Davis really. He's certainly not good defensively but he's one of the team's best producer as only a 2nd year guy.

 

Nelson is probably the only one I could maybe see, because you're getting an even better SP back. Even still though, him + 3 other prospects is steep.

[torts]

just incase this was questioned in this thread as it was in the Lester thread, i'll just put it here, too":

 

 

Super 2 status matters to other franchises as much as it does to ours, which also increases Nelson value on the trade market. so to say "if he was gunna be traded, shoulda started him in May" actually potentially drives down Nelsons value as now whatever team would acquire him would have a player who has that extra year of arbitration cost associated with them, driving up that players long-term costs.

[monty57]

Even still though, him + 3 other prospects is steep.

 

For us, losing guys like Taylor, Arcia, Coulter, etc would really hurt. For Tampa, they could get much better back from another team. In order for us to land someone like Price in trade, we need to "up the ante" by trading away guys from the MLB roster. I don't think that's a good idea, but for those who think we need to find an ace, that's the way we're going to find one.

 

I honestly hope the Rays decide not to sell, because I don't think Melvin wants Weeks playing everyday, so I think he would eventually settle on a deal of Gennett, Nelson, Thornberg, Coulter and another decent prospect for Price & Zobrist. Tampa would get 5-6 years of a #2/3 starter (Nelson), closer (Thornburg), 2B (Gennett) and a high-upside catcher/3B prospect. We'd probably slightly increase our playoff chances this year, but would still be one bad injury away from falling out of contention.

[brewcrewdue80]

Price will net Milwaukee another Player when he departs. So while losing a Coulter/Nelson/ -Thornburg would hurt. That compensation pick pretty much to me replaces Coulter's loss at a minimum. And both Nelson/Thornburg were picked after the 1st rd. We do get a better SP today than what Thornburg/Nelson project to ever be. He'll also be LH. You know what will happen when the Price trade happens. It'll come out what this or that GM wasn't willing to part with/or were. Which at the very least gives Melvin knowledge of what he can ask back in the Offseason if he wanted to trade Price away vs. paying 20mil approx. for next year's services.

 

I really don't think the Brewers need Price under their current roster setup. If they went out and got a 1b/Bench bat that improves on what we have today...Then I'd really jump on board getting Price. As evidence of the Brewers last two games offensively vs. Degrom/Odorizzi....It doesn't take elite pitching to shut this offense down. We don't need Price just to get in the Playoffs and score 4runs in 4games of a sweep.

 

As has been proven of late, the teams that make the WS and win it are the ones who's hitter/s are hott at the plate.

[fondybrewfan]

I am sorry but there is almost no chance at all that Melvin trades for Price and then trades him this Winter. I don't think I am going out on a limb in saying he will never do that. If the Brewers suck in 2015 then maybe he unloads him at the trading deadline but Price is the opening day starter in 2015 if DM gets him in the next 2 days.

 

With Price in the fold there would be no reason to expect anything other than a really good Brewers team in 2015 and Melvin isn't going to trade any MLB assets if that is the case.

 

I still think it is pretty darn unlikely the Brewers end up with Price. Sure it could happen but I am not getting my hopes up.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I am sorry but there is almost no chance at all that Melvin trades for Price and then trades him this Winter. I don't think I am going out on a limb in saying he will never do that. If the Brewers suck in 2015 then maybe he unloads him at the trading deadline but Price is the opening day starter in 2015 if DM gets him in the next 2 days.

 

 

 

Pretty much this. Melvin/MA don't go into a season expecting not to contend. In 2012 when the Brewers traded Greinke, we were 45-54, 14 games out, and 10 out of the wild card. Nobody saw us climbing back into the wild card race at that point.

 

Melvin's MO has NEVER been to trade MLB chips when he thinks he's in a race, or has a chance to compete. With the team he'll have going into 2015, I think it's safe to say there's a 0% chance he'd have a reason to believe he'd want to trade Price for minor league pieces.

[TheCrew07]

As has been proven of late, the teams that make the WS and win it are the ones who's hitter/s are hott at the plate.

 

Is that so? Proven by whom exactly? That reads as an opinion being passed off as fact.

 

2013 WS

 

The Cards actually outhit the Sox and lost the series... maybe pitching is actually king?

 

Regardless acquiring Price with any notion of spinning him right back off is fool hardy at best, when have Mark A or Melvin ever done anything along those lines? That kind of move is organization building at it's worst... everything has to work out perfectly to get as much out of the 2nd deal as you put into the first deal. I don't disagree with posters who think the Brewers don't match up well with many of the playoff teams from a top end pitching standpoint, but acquiring another short term solution is not the answer to the problem. At some point the Brewers need to start building up pitching depth and before anyone says it no pitchers like Jungmann, Pena, Hellweg, and so on are not quality depth.... they are not top of the rotation starters. There are plenty of 3-5s and bullpen options but we don't have any pitchers who comfortably project at the top of the rotation right now. We have guys whom could certainly ascend in that direction but there's no realistic way to make that claim today. Lohse hurt that effort last year as the lost 1st round pick is part of his opportunity cost, Devin Williams and Kodi Medeiros may be part of the solution down the road but both of them are in Rookie ball right now.

 

Nelson is MLB ready today, a potential compensation draft pick (who would have to work out best case) from losing Price is 6 years away from MLB ready as of today. That was the same argument people used for Sheets, Sabathia, K-Rod, and so on... the Brewers haven't done well with compensation picks at all. The "going for it" model should have went out with the Wild Cards, there's no reason to sell out to get the post season now, you don't have to be 1 of 2 teams vying for spots, there's way more wiggle room. If the postseason expands again there will be even less reason to make rash moves at the deadline, the marginal differences in production wouldn't be worth the cost if 6 or 8 teams are getting in.

[Outlander]

just incase this was questioned in this thread as it was in the Lester thread, i'll just put it here, too":

 

 

Super 2 status matters to other franchises as much as it does to ours, which also increases Nelson value on the trade market. so to say "if he was gunna be traded, shoulda started him in May" actually potentially drives down Nelsons value as now whatever team would acquire him would have a player who has that extra year of arbitration cost associated with them, driving up that players long-term costs.

The acquiring team could just send the guy back down to the minors to make sure he doesn't reach Super 2 status. If Melvin knew he was going to trade Nelson and just left him in the minors anyway because of super 2 then it was a bad move on his part.

[brewcrewdue80]

As has been proven of late, the teams that make the WS and win it are the ones who's hitter/s are hott at the plate.

 

Is that so? Proven by whom exactly? That reads as an opinion being passed off as fact.

 

2013 WS

 

The Cards actually outhit the Sox and lost the series... maybe pitching is actually king?

.

 

 

Yes Boston hit better than StL. via OPS.

 

SF (5th best record) Slugged Det(11th best record) in 2012

 

StL(8th best record) slugged Texas(4th best record) in 2011

 

SF(5th best record) SPs won 2010 WS over Texas(8th best record) of course 29runs in 5 games outpaces their season avg runs scored by 1.5 per game.

 

None of the teams with the best RA avg in the last 4 years made the WS at all. So having the best pitching staff didn't help get those teams in to WS much less win it.

Don't want to go further back in time 4years is recent enough, especially with the additional WC spot.

[Never Outhustled]

Does it bother anyone that Price struggled in his 5 career post-season starts. I have mixed feelings on that.

[TheCrew07]

Don't want to go further back in time 4years is recent enough, especially with the additional WC spot.

 

When teams are OPSing south of .650 they aren't slugging their way to anything, you're missing the big picture and seeing what you want to see.

 

Hitting is a function of pitching, not the other way around, no one lucks their way to a 7 game series win.

 

All of those teams out pitched the other team by a drastic margin. For example every team in the entire Midwest League has a higher team OPS than the .621 OPS your touting as proof of something, Dayton is the league's worst team at .668 and 6 teams have an OPS over .700.

 

Call me crazy but I think the 14 runs Boston gave up in 6 games might have had something to do with it.

 

Finally, the regular season has little to do with what happens in the post season, it's an entirely different animal because of the off days. Depth isn't as important, it's mostly a test of best on best, the match-ups are what matters.

[lcbj68c]

I hope we just stand pat. There isn't an offensive acquisition that I think Melvin makes that can help this team make the post-season, let alone be a factor in it. So Price pitches every 5th day for maybe 7 or 8 starts before the deadline. When we can't hit for beans and strike out 15 times a game, what difference will it make when Price throws 8 innings of 1 run ball? This team is not a 10 game over .500 ballclub in terms of talent as it has played to thus far this season. Strictly my opinion. I don't really want to waste 6 years of control for multiple players for 8 starts of David Price. It's probably a pessimistic approach brought on by the scuffles of July, but I just have a feeling we could acquire Price for him to pitch magnificent in his games, go 4-5 in those games with garbage run support, this team goes 24-30 over that stretch while Pitt and STL play 30-24 and we miss the playoffs by a handful. Oh and we lost 6 years of control to 3 guys. But woohoo, we got to see Price pitch for 8 games!

[Eye Black]

Oh and we lost 6 years of control to 3 guys. But woohoo, we got to see Price pitch for 8 games!

Barring a major injury Price would pitch throughout 2015 as well.

[lcbj68c]

Oh and we lost 6 years of control to 3 guys. But woohoo, we got to see Price pitch for 8 games!

Barring a major injury Price would pitch throughout 2015 as well.

 

If that is the goal, he can likely be had for less of a return in January of 2015.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Price will be a Brewer by the end of the trade deadline.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Not if the rumor st.louis is offering tavaras and Shelby miller is true he won't be.

[lcbj68c]

Price will be a Brewer by the end of the trade deadline.

 

Is that the july 31st deadline...or the revocable waiver deadline?

[PrinceFielderx1]

Price will be a Brewer by the end of the trade deadline.

 

Is that the july 31st deadline...or the revocable waiver deadline?

 

July 31st. It's being worked out right now likely. Pitching wins chapionships guys, not offense. Though, the Brewers do have a good offense. Pitching can improve.

[brewmann04]

No need to add him after July 31 since he can't pitch in the playoffs. But at least if we get Price and if the Crew should falter in 2015 we can always move Price to replenish our system. I still think Melvin needs to add a Bat to this team.

[jerichoholicninja]

No need to add him after July 31 since he can't pitch in the playoffs.

 

August 31.

[TURBO]

Price will be a Brewer by the end of the trade deadline.

 

Just had to quote this for future reference...

 

I do hope you are wrong... I'm not sure we can afford to give up our future for 1 to 1.5 years of one guy.

 

Ughhh.

[trwi7]

Price will be a Brewer by the end of the trade deadline.

 

Just had to quote this for future reference...

 

Already bookmarked it.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Price will be a Brewer by the end of the trade deadline.

 

Just had to quote this for future reference...

 

I do hope you are wrong... I'm not sure we can afford to give up our future for 1 to 1.5 years of one guy.

 

Ughhh.

 

I'd give him up in a heart beat. I know about his talent, but we need a true ace and I'd extend him like is said months ago. I'd just keep Tyrone Taylor. He's all I care about. We'll need him once we move Braun to 1B.