Brett Lawrie starting to put it together?

[The stache]

Is this the year former Brewer star prospect takes a giant step forward? He's showing signs.

 

I've been peeking in on the Blue Jays a couple different times in the last week (gotta love MLB.tv when it's working, right?) Part of it was seeing how Juan Francisco has been doing north of the border. But part of it, too, was to check up on Brett Lawrie, who I've just recently added to my fantasy roster.

 

He's been battling some injuries on and off all year (stop me if you've heard this before). A pulled right hamstring forced him to miss six games. But in the last 23 games he's played in, the numbers are encouraging (for Jays fans, and for his fantasy owners).

 

http://imageshack.com/a/img838/4139/4atu.png

 

It's interesting to note that Lawrie's .322 average and .328 BAbip are so close. His career BAbip is .294. For the entire 2014 season, though, it's only .250. He's 44 points below his career norm.

 

Also, 21 RBIs in 23 games is showing encouraging patience. He's hitting .424 with RISP this season, compared to a .286 mark for his career, could be a sign that he's changing his approach in higher leverage situations. For the season, in 20 plate appearances in high leverage situations, he's hitting .421 with an 1.189 OPS. In medium leverage situations, he's hitting .318 with an .856 OPS in 45 plate appearances.

 

Is Lawrie taking the step towards becoming the player we thought he could be? His averages per 162 games played thus far are not bad: 615 at bats, 164 hits, .266 AVG, 81 runs, 30 doubles, 20 home runs, 75 RBI, 15 stolen bases. His .325 OBP and .429 SLG should start to rise.

 

He's been making very solid contact, driving the ball like I haven't seen him do in a while.

 

We shall see.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'm happy for you that your MLB TV is working for you.

[HiAndTight]

I've believe it was only a matter of time(*and health) as to when Lawrie put it all together. He's just simply too talented and too young.

 

The Marcum for Lawrie trade is one of the worst I can recall the Brewers making, and the only thing that made it bearable was the fact that we went out and added Greinke. I would have much preferred taking Pineda back, even though he's dealt with constant elbow/shoulder injuries.

 

It'd sure be nice to have Lawrie right now to play 2nd, 3rd, or the OF for us.

 

I do have to admit, it hasn't bothered me to see him struggle with injuries/performance thus far.

 

I'm happy for you that your MLB TV is working for you.

 

Is this your way of saying you don't care about or want to discuss Brett Lawrie?

[PrinceFielderx1]

I've believe it was only a matter of time(*and health) as to when Lawrie put it all together. He's just simply too talented and too young.

 

The Marcum for Lawrie trade is one of the worst I can recall the Brewers making, and the only thing that made it bearable was the fact that we went out and added Greinke. I would have much preferred taking Pineda back, even though he's dealt with constant elbow/shoulder injuries.

 

It'd sure be nice to have Lawrie right now to play 2nd, 3rd, or the OF for us.

 

I do have to admit, it hasn't bothered me to see him struggle with injuries/performance thus far.

 

I'm happy for you that your MLB TV is working for you.

 

Is this your way of saying you don't care about or want to discuss Brett Lawrie?

 

I was just being nice to Stache. He's complained about MLB Tv not working for him to me before and I just wanted to say I'm happy it's working and he can watch the games. I meant it. On Lawrie, I was in favor of the trade when it happen and I still am. He has a HUGE attitude problem and he's a player that never would have signed an extension with us due to his never ending hate of being kept in the minors. He should have just shut his mouth, but lord knows he can't do that. He will be a good player while he's on the field and not suspended, injured or slumping. Not a player the Brewers should have kept. The trade needed to happen, and it got us to the playoffs. Mission accomplished.

[SRB]

He's an averagish 3B (maybe 2-3 WAR over a full season) with health issues. Great value for the Blue Jays from trading just Shaun Marcum, but I'm not missing Lawrie all that much. Plus when the trade happened wasn't there some buzz that the Brewers saw some character issues with him?

[HiAndTight]

I've believe it was only a matter of time(*and health) as to when Lawrie put it all together. He's just simply too talented and too young.

 

The Marcum for Lawrie trade is one of the worst I can recall the Brewers making, and the only thing that made it bearable was the fact that we went out and added Greinke. I would have much preferred taking Pineda back, even though he's dealt with constant elbow/shoulder injuries.

 

It'd sure be nice to have Lawrie right now to play 2nd, 3rd, or the OF for us.

 

I do have to admit, it hasn't bothered me to see him struggle with injuries/performance thus far.

 

I'm happy for you that your MLB TV is working for you.

 

Is this your way of saying you don't care about or want to discuss Brett Lawrie?

 

I was just being nice to Stache. He's complained about MLB Tv not working for him to me before and I just wanted to say I'm happy it's working and he can watch the games. I meant it. On Lawrie, I was in favor of the trade when it happen and I still am. He has a HUGE attitude problem and he's a player that never would have signed an extension with us due to his never ending hate of being kept in the minors. He should have just shut his mouth, but lord knows he can't do that. He will be a good player while he's on the field and not suspended, injured or slumping. Not a player the Brewers should have kept. The trade needed to happen, and it got us to the playoffs. Mission accomplished.

 

His "never ending hate?" And even if he wouldn't have signed with us, he was ours for 6 years. And he's still just 23 years old.

 

I also would disagree that HE got us to the playoffs. Pineda had a 3.42 FIP that year to Marcum's 3.76. I'm guessing we'd have made it to the playoffs if we'd made that trade which was rumored to have been offered.

 

My bigger problem however is labeling Lawrie as a bad guy. This is an excuse for a terrible trade in my opinion. He was 20 years old. He was upset he didn't get called up. So what? At the very least we could/should have made a better trade for a oft-injured soft tosser who was 30 years old. At best we should have kept him as he matured(as most do from the age of 20 years old on). Whatever his opinions where about how he was handled, I don't believe you could question his effort on the field.

 

Finally, I'm not interested in a bunch of choir boys filling out our 25 man roster. I'm interested in guys who can hit, run, field and are good at baseball.

[PrinceFielderx1]

He's an averagish 3B (maybe 2-3 WAR over a full season) with health issues. Great value for the Blue Jays from trading just Shaun Marcum, but I'm not missing Lawrie all that much. Plus when the trade happened wasn't there some buzz that the Brewers saw some character issues with him?

 

His character issues followed him to the Blue Jays. Yes, you are correct.

[HiAndTight]

He's an averagish 3B (maybe 2-3 WAR over a full season) with health issues. Great value for the Blue Jays from trading just Shaun Marcum, but I'm not missing Lawrie all that much. Plus when the trade happened wasn't there some buzz that the Brewers saw some character issues with him?

 

 

There were some concerns, but those seemed to be exaggerated after the fact. And while I understand you're not missing him much comment at the moment, he's an average 3rd basemen in the AL East right now....but he just turned 24 years old. I still believe there is significant upside there.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Hiandtight,

 

 

Yes, whether it was Marcum or Pineda they would have gotten us to the playoffs. In this case it was Marcum. You are correct. Still mission accomplished. Hey, if you want an average to above average 3B man with some defense and anger issues for 6 full years then so be it. I'm totally satisfied with Ramirez over him any day of the week.

[PrinceFielderx1]

He's an averagish 3B (maybe 2-3 WAR over a full season) with health issues. Great value for the Blue Jays from trading just Shaun Marcum, but I'm not missing Lawrie all that much. Plus when the trade happened wasn't there some buzz that the Brewers saw some character issues with him?

 

 

There were some concerns, but those seemed to be exaggerated after the fact. And while I understand you're not missing him much comment at the moment, he's an average 3rd basemen in the AL East right now....but he just turned 24 years old. I still believe there is significant upside there.

 

an average 3rd baseman with potential for upside for an established top of the rotation SP in Marcum for 2 full years? Good deal.

[Outlander]

To answer your question, no I think he will have another poor season. He has looked pretty bad.

[chadomac]

Brett Lawrie has had 20 good games before, but he has never kept it going for one reason or another. I wouldn't say he's "put it together" until he's had at least a season+ of production and health.

 

And I - like most other Brewer fans - would do that Marcum trade over and over again, because it let us enjoy 2011. There's no way we win the division without Greinke and Marcum.

[HiAndTight]

He's an averagish 3B (maybe 2-3 WAR over a full season) with health issues. Great value for the Blue Jays from trading just Shaun Marcum, but I'm not missing Lawrie all that much. Plus when the trade happened wasn't there some buzz that the Brewers saw some character issues with him?

 

 

There were some concerns, but those seemed to be exaggerated after the fact. And while I understand you're not missing him much comment at the moment, he's an average 3rd basemen in the AL East right now....but he just turned 24 years old. I still believe there is significant upside there.

 

an average 3rd baseman with potential for upside for an established top of the rotation SP in Marcum for 2 full years? Good deal.

 

 

A-Marcum is by no means a "top of the rotation starter." He was a good starter, but a high 3's ERA in the NL is a low 2/high 3. His ERA was not in the top 40 of MLB and his FIP over his two years was also in the high 3's.

Incidentally, his WAR with the Brewers was 4.3 vs 10.7 thus far for the Jays costing the Brewers ~11.7 million vs the 1.45 million that Lawrie has made.

B-We didn't get him for two full years. We got him for one year and then an injury plagued year.

 

C-He played a big part in the Brewers not advancing by pitching so, so poorly in that post-season by giving up 15 ER's in 9.2 IP

Game 3 vs AZ 4.2 IP 7 H 7 ER 3 BB 3 SO

Game 2 vs STL 4 IP 7 H 5 ER 1 BB 1 SO

Game 6 vs STL 1 IP 3 H 4 ER 1 BB 1 SO

That was the deciding game of the series.

 

This is actually a much stronger argument as to why he was NOT the top of the rotation starter you believe he was. Ace's comes through in the playoffs. Soft tossers often times get roughed up more often as hitters focus more and are more locked in.

 

But you're STILL missing the main point here. The post you're quoting makes no mention of the Marcum for Lawrie trade, only what I think if Lawrie.

 

The comments I DID make regarding the trade dealt with the fact that I felt at the very-very least the Brewers could have gotten back a better pitcher in return. Lawrie's stock was skyrocketing at the time. Immediately following the trade he was mentioned with Trout and Harper favorably. At the time of the trade he was one of the elite young position prospects in the game who appeared to be MLB ready.

And I - like most other Brewer fans - would do that Marcum trade over and over again, because it let us enjoy 2011. There's no way we win the division without Greinke and Marcum.

 

 

Has there been a poll on the subject that states more fans believe this was a good move? That of course sets aside the fact that most fans aren't very informed when it comes to baseball. Most casual fans would take a .300/.325/400 player over a .255/.355/.500 hitter because they value stats like BA and RBI's. Most casual fans believe that Wins is a good gauge of a pitchers worth.

 

Finally, lets not combine Greinke with Marcum. Greinke was an ace. A dominant pitcher(still is). Now Grienke also pitched poorly in the playoffs in 2011(not nearly as poorly as Marcum) but he was dominant last year and obviously has pitched like an ace through his career where Marcum never did.

 

 

 

I will grant you that the 2011 season was fantastic and Shaun Marcum was a big part of that. I accepted the fact that we made what was in my opinion a terrible trade and enjoyed watching the Brewers win 96 games that year. But we got a whole lot more out of Zack Greinke than Shaun Marcum.

[HiAndTight]

To answer your question, no I think he will have another poor season. He has looked pretty bad.

 

 

At age 21 he put up a 3.5 WAR

Age 22 he put up a 4.5 WAR

Age 23 he put up a 2.0 WAR despite playing just

Thus far this year he's put up a 0.7 WAR.

 

Ramirez during that same time period has put up WAR's of;

2.7, 5.5, 0.9, -0.1

 

Now WAR is certainly not a flawless metric. Far from it. But it's used by many on here to judge players. I would also mention that I would prefer Ramirez to Lawrie over this same time period, but lets consider that Ramirez was also guaranteed 50.6 million dollars from 2011 through 2014 and that money very well could have gone to say Jose Abreu. Or it could have gone to signing Greinke. Or improving the team elsewhere.

 

He certainly hasn't lived up to expectations, but those were also extraordinarily high. He was mentioned along with Trout and Harper.

 

I don't think he's looked bad. I don't think he's looked as good as we thought he would and he's struggled with injuries as well. I think he's shown signs of being a franchise type player. Also remember Ryan Braun didn't come up until he was 23 years old. I'm sure he'd have struggled a bit if he'd have come up 3 years earlier.

 

 

I'm certainly not dwelling on the trade. It happened, we won 96 games and very well could have won a World Series had David Freese not become Ted Williams(but right handed) in the NLCS. But I also don't agree with the Lawrie bashing and playing up what a bad guy he was. Yes, he was immature. He was 20. He was supremely confident and exceptionally talented. Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds were bad guys. They helped their team. Roger Clemens isn't exactly Mr. Sunshine. 7 Cy Youngs. Ted Williams was a jerk. Greatest hitter of all time IMO. And team chemistry is nice. It's better that guys get along than not. But it's insanely overrated in baseball. Baseball is at it's core an individual sport. It's a series of individual matchup's. Other than the pitcher and catcher and maybe the 2nd and SS, the rest of the sport is one on one matchups.

[The stache]

I enjoyed playing for a shot to get to the World Series, don't get me wrong. But we didn't get there, and what we've been left with is a big hole where Lawrie would have had a chance to develop at second and third base.

 

What we have had for the last three years plus since the trade for Shaun Marcum is Alex Gonzalez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Rickie Weeks and Taylor Green playing second, short and third when Aramis Ramirez has been unable to play, and before Segura and Gennett were called up to the Major League team. Now, I did not exclude the games played by these players at other positions, as that would take forever. The greater majority of games played by these four men have been at second, short and third. Their performance has been abysmal.

 

http://imageshack.com/a/img836/5108/ppzu.png

 

They combined for a .301 OBP (which I know must look spectacular right now when we're marching six players out with a sub .300 OBP on a semi-regular basis), and a .389 SLG. That's a .690 OPS. And that's not even considering the awful defense these guys bring to the table.

 

As bad as that has been, here's a really startling realization. We have absolutely nobody in our system that could adequately take over at third base if Ramirez went down. We need Reynolds to play first, because we already have enough weak bats in the lineup with Scooter Gennett's lack of power, Herrera's inability to do..well, anything. If Reynolds plays third, then Overbay is at first long term, and that's frightening.

 

I just don't know if a couple weeks of post season enjoyment is worth the last two plus years of hair pulling ineptitude we've been dealing with at several spots in the roster.

[TauPentaRei]

 

And I - like most other Brewer fans - would do that Marcum trade over and over again, because it let us enjoy 2011. There's no way we win the division without Greinke and Marcum.

 

This Marcum?

 

[pre]POSTSEASON PITCHING STATISTICS

SEASON GP IP H R ER HR BB SO W L WHIP ERA

2011 3 9.2 17 16 16 3 5 5 0 3 2.28 14.90[/pre]

 

I certainly did not enjoy Marcum's contribution to the end goal. Not to divert attention away from Lawrie... but if Marcum came up with a few wins in the playoffs instead, I could be celebrating the trade still. It took me a long time to stop using Marcum as my favorite 4 letter word...

[Invader3K]

 

And I - like most other Brewer fans - would do that Marcum trade over and over again, because it let us enjoy 2011. There's no way we win the division without Greinke and Marcum.

 

This Marcum?

 

[pre]POSTSEASON PITCHING STATISTICS

SEASON GP IP H R ER HR BB SO W L WHIP ERA

2011 3 9.2 17 16 16 3 5 5 0 3 2.28 14.90[/pre]

 

I certainly did not enjoy Marcum's contribution to the end goal. Not to divert attention away from Lawrie... but if Marcum came up with a few wins in the playoffs instead, I could be celebrating the trade still. It took me a long time to stop using Marcum as my favorite 4 letter word...

 

He wore down as the season went on and we ran out of options. Can't really judge a trade or player on about one game's worth of stats. I'm not going to go dredging up stats from that series at this point, but I remember some of our key hitters performing pretty poorly in that final series against the Cards.

[chadomac]

If I recall, you couldn't count on any of our starters during the 2011 post-season, which is why we were knocked out. Marcum might've been the worst of them, but he wasn't the only starter that didn't show up for the playoffs that year.

 

There was a portion early in that season where Marcum was our rock and stopper. We don't make the playoffs without him.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If I recall, you couldn't count on any of our starters during the 2011 post-season, which is why we were knocked out. Marcum might've been the worst of them, but he wasn't the only starter that didn't show up for the playoffs that year.

 

There was a portion early in that season where Marcum was our rock and stopper. We don't make the playoffs without him.

 

 

That's entirely debatable. The Brewers won the division by 5 games, and would have still had a more than reasonable shot at the wild card if you replace Marcum with a hypothetical league average starter.

[BallFour]

Gallardo is probably the main reason we beat Arizona and got to the NLCS so don't know how you say he didn't show up.

[chadomac]

I'm pretty sure Greinke said he decided to allow the trade because they had just gotten Marcum. So maybe I should've said "we don't make the playoffs without Marcum & Greinke" and I feel like that's pretty hard to argue.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Wasn't Lawrie's big WAR #'s early in his career largely due to some weird defensive zone rating/efficiency flaw that gave him insanely high DWAR? He's still young and could still turn into a star, but at this point in his career it's just as likely that he has another 1-2 subpar years and becomes a MLB journeyman that nobody but Brewer fans think twice about.

 

Greinke opened that season on the DL, and for the first 2 months Marcum was the best pitcher in the rotation. Without him they would've dug themselves a pretty decent hole to crawl out from, seeing that they were around a 0.500 team well through May or even June that season, if I remember correctly.

 

The brewers maybe win the wild card that year without Marcum, but they don't win the division...

[BallFour]

Wasn't Lawrie's big WAR #'s early in his career largely due to some weird defensive zone rating/efficiency flaw that gave him insanely high DWAR? He's still young and could still turn into a star, but at this point in his career it's just as likely that he has another 1-2 subpar years and becomes a MLB journeyman that nobody but Brewer fans think twice about.

 

That is exactly why it inflates his WAR tremendously.

 

1.6 in 43 games in 2011

2.3 in 125 games in 2012

 

I don't watch him regularly so I don't have a clue how good his glove is.

[HiAndTight]

If I recall, you couldn't count on any of our starters during the 2011 post-season, which is why we were knocked out. Marcum might've been the worst of them, but he wasn't the only starter that didn't show up for the playoffs that year.

 

There was a portion early in that season where Marcum was our rock and stopper. We don't make the playoffs without him.

 

 

That's entirely debatable. The Brewers won the division by 5 games, and would have still had a more than reasonable shot at the wild card if you replace Marcum with a hypothetical league average starter.

 

 

We actually won the division by 6 games and led Atlanta by 7 for the WC.

 

Given the opinion of Estrada on this board, I think it's safe to assume most believe that he would have been good enough as our 5th starter to make the playoffs.

Here's my #1 issue with Marcum. He was a soft tossing, injury prone pitcher nearing 30. He's 32 years old right now and out of baseball.

If you're going to take a player like Brett Lawrie, I think you should have tried much harder to get a better return. The Pineda for Lawrie trade is one.

 

 

And I think there is a pretty strong argument that you're more likely to succeed with power arms in the playoffs as opposed to the soft tossers. Hitters become more focused as the intensity rises. I'd certainly rather go with Pineda and his 95 MPH fastball than Marcum's 86.9 MPH average fastball in a post-season series.

 

Even with the benefit of hindsight, I'd still be just fine with the Brewer going for the 22 year old stud than Marcum. And who knows who we could have gotten back had we actually shopped him to more teams than just Toronto. So even if you believe the trade was ultimately worth it, I would think one would at least have to question the return.

[HiAndTight]

I'm pretty sure Greinke said he decided to allow the trade because they had just gotten Marcum. So maybe I should've said "we don't make the playoffs without Marcum & Greinke" and I feel like that's pretty hard to argue.

 

 

He chose Milwaukee over Washington, and IIRC at the time, the biggest reason he mentioned was because he wanted a chance to be competitive, but the thing I remember was him citing the Brewers decision to keep Prince Fielder as the biggest reason he believed they were more of a contender. I also believe he mentioned Marcum, but I don't believe he ever said waived his no-trade because of Marcum.

 

 

I do believe the Brewers should have made a stronger attempt at trying to sign Greinke when they traded for him. That's my only issue with that deal. I think we did very well in that we didn't give up players who ended up being stars for him, and we got back a pretty good haul, and of course won 96 games. But I certainly would like our rotation a lot more right now if we'd signed Greinke at the time of the deal. And I'm guessing we could have done a 5/100 deal when we traded for him. Not much more than the cost of Garza+Estrada and you'd have Nelson in the rotation. That'd be 3 power arms with Lohse and Gallardo.