Some Real Speculation -- Texas Rangers

[igor67]

Stat head trends, say BB/ HR guys only age poorly

 

Scouts say large men age poorly

 

The only pro argument for Fielder is sentiment. Compared to what we have now I'm sure he'd be an upgrade for a year. I agree that Beltre could make more sense on the short term side.

[jvrocksaz]

Prince may be done for a while... http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/05/prince-fielder-seriously-considering-season-ending-surgery.html

[jjkoestler]

Prince going down for the season really hurts the Rangers. I have to imagine they will be sellers. Thoughts on what it would take to get Rios? Beltre?

[brewcrewdue80]

To get Beltre would mean ARam is done for the season. Otherwise there isn't another spot for him on the field. I also don't see Texas trading away Beltre unless it brought them an Ace in the making type pitcher(Better than Wily Peralta). He's a Franchise player for that team like David Ortiz is to Boston. He'll probably get 2 year contract extensions after his current contract before retiring a Ranger.

 

As for Rios. Well he was traded for Luery Garcia last year. A solid Utility Player. If we are going to pick up Rios, Seems like a Davis or Fiers/Jungmann would be required. Rios has an option to be picked up next season so if we lost Davis it's at least reasonable to have Rios on the roster next year while our Minor guys season to the point of graduating in to the roster maybe by Sept 2015. I just feel like Texas stands to gain more in trade for Rios than Chicago did because Chicago was blowing up their roster/shaving payroll for a rebuild. Texas isn't in that boat, injuries derailed their season's potential. They don't need to trade Rios away, as for them he's a valuable asset for next season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Texas would not get an elite young SP for Beltre at age 35, that's not realistic at all. I agree that adding him would create a bit of a logjam given both Ramirez & Reynolds, but if there did come the chance to add Beltre for a reasonable price, I'd make that move & just push Ramirez to 1B & Reynolds to the bench... except for the fact that Beltre is still owed $18M for next season & then has a $16M vesting option for '16. Way too much money for what will likely be declined production. Which is too bad, because I've long admired him as a player. His defense alone is worth the price of admission.

[brewcrewdue80]

TLB. You're wrong. Beltre is a 5WAR 3b easily, and the age 35 doesn't tie in to him in losing skills. He's an automatic 30HR 100RBI machine. So trading for Beltre this season, Texas can put 12.5WAR of value as the player the Brewers are getting. A 6Year team controlled SP in return for him even if the kid is an Ace in the making... Say Gerrit Cole for Example. How likely is it that Cole gives Texas 12.5WAR in the 6years of team controlled? He's at 1.8 through his first 28starts. I can look at Cole and think of him as a 3WAR pitcher for 6years or 18WAR over team controlled. You're getting 12.5WAR from Beltre in 2.5seasons. On a Playoff push run as the Brewers stand currently adding a bat like Beltre's would be monstrous. It would be easy to just go Gomez/Braun/Beltre/ARam/Lucroy when healthy. That's ALL STAR for 5 spots the pitcher has to get through. I think Beltre's addition would add 6-8runs a Week to the team's offense. How many wins would that be adding every week? At least one.

[TooLiveBrew]

What elite young SP in the game would you trade for Beltre's age 36 & 37 seasons, for which you pay him a combined $34M? And that's not counting the remainder of his $17M salary this season.

 

If you'd trade Cole for him, I'll do my best to get you a job in a division rival's front office.

[brewcrewdue80]

Okay going off MLB's top 10 LHP/RHP.

LH:Heaney no, Owens yes, Fried yes, Biddle yes, Urias no, Rodriguez yes, Nicolino yes, Escobar yes, Ball yes, Ray yes.

RH: Bradley no, Walker no, Syndergaard no, Gray...I'd mull about it, Appel yes, Stephenson yes, Bundy yes, Taillon yes, Sanchez no, Zimmer yes.

 

You're complaining about 17mil a season for a 5WAR player? What's 1WAR worth? 5mil? or 25mil in production for 17mil salary?

 

Beltre is the kind of hitter that can flat out win series for you. In a 7game series he could go 10-30 with 5HRs 12RBI. When he's locked in, there's almost nobody better than him. (there may not be)

For Milwaukee's current roster makeup the return on winning a World Series can supercede the cost of giving up your future SP. Again he's just that valuable of a hitter. I'm not going to get caught up with his age when he's a .300 hitter 30HR power with a .350s/60s OB. If Beltre wasn't the kind of hitter that can carry you through a series then obviously the trade is a bad idea. This would be replacing Reynolds/Overbay at 1b with ARam taking 1b duties...supposedly. Reynolds' bat will disappear come playoff time when he's facing #1,2,3s of Playoff contending teams. The HR that keeps him remotely valuable will turn in to 4-30 7game series with 21Ks 1HR 1RBI. And then you'll wonder why you didn't get Beltre when there was the opportunity to get him leaving the black hole bat of Reynolds in your playoff lineup to just get dominated at a time you needed him most.

 

If you're playing to win a World Series you gotta do what's best to make that happen. If you're not concerned with playing for a World Series on a given season but just to cycle a continual competitive team than you never trade away your best prospects. Yeah Tampa has 6 straight winning seasons 5 of them 90+Win seasons. But just 1 World Series appearance in 2008. That year? Not one trade for the stretch run. Not 1 batter with a .300+BA. 2010, 96 wins. They acquired Chad Qualls a RP. Longoria/Crawford were approx .300 hitters, nobody else was above .265 on the season. 2011, No trades again. Last year they acquired David Dejesus for the late stretch run as an upgrade in the OF(and atop the order vs Jennings) over Sam Fuld/Kelly Johnson/Matt Joyce.

 

It's great what Tampa has been able to do as an organization with their payroll. But they haven't won the World Series. The year they win the World Series will be the year they find that impact player the team was missing. Sacrificing say 4-6wins a year for the next 5years to get the 4 wins that matter the most.

[igor67]

I'll argue the middle position, namely that in the not so distant past Beltre is exactly the kind of guy that GMs would have over paid for in prospects. Given his advanced age an somewhat decreased production (still not bad especially with the high quality defense) I think he is a guy you could relatively under pay for in terms of prospects or younger players (i.e. we would not have to give up 1 of our top 3 prospects). I'd peg him as being about a 4 WAR player going forward, maybe 3 depending on how fast his bat recedes. I think there is a lot of similarity to what we did with Aramis. Everyone else got scared by the age and we got him for reasonable value. Putting him into a health platoon with Reynolds at first while upgrading the 3rd base defense helps the team out a fair bit (more time for Reynolds on the bench is a nice upgrade there as well).

[monty57]

I think there is a lot of similarity to what we did with Aramis. Everyone else got scared by the age and we got him for reasonable value.

 

That depends on your version of "reasonable." It may be reasonable if we got three years of his normal production, but we only got that for his first (youngest) year of the contract. Then we got a year where he only played about half the games, and he has already missed a lot of games this year.

 

That's the problem with humans... they don't tend to age well. Buying the final years of almost any player's "monster contract signed when they were in their early 30's" is probably a bad idea, so as good as Beltre has been for the Rangers I would greatly discount for age and amount of money owed. I would also really investigate why Beltre has eight MLB seasons with an OPS under .800 in his career and why his hitting ability suddenly re-emerged since going to Texas.

 

He's a wonderful player, but he's not guaranteed Hall-of-Fame numbers every year in his late 30's. If traded, he may net Texas a tremendous haul, but I hope the Brewers aren't the team paying it. Too much risk for a team that could be sunk if it goes badly.