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2014-05-13 Pirates (Cole) at Brewers (Estrada), 7:10 PM CDT [Braun returns, Gomez still active; Brewers win, 5-2]


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This team has been brutal with men at 3rd and less than two outs as of late. I don't know where they stand for the season, but for the last week or so it's been rough.

 

Surprisingly, for the season, the man on, less than 2 outs numbers are pretty gaudy. I can't find a breakdown for the last week.

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If they are really 5/1, I wouldn't touch that.

why?

 

Because it's simply a horrible value.

 

value is worthless if the team loses. there's no value in a 100/1 bet. the team is 100/1 for a reason. the brewers are 5/1 for a reason. it means there chances of going far are pretty good. the brewers being 3/1 to win the nlcs means there's a good chance it happens.

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It really is too bad this team cannot stay healthy. Eventually this will catch up with them and cost them games and maybe a lot of them.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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value is worthless if the team loses. there's no value in a 100/1 bet. the team is 100/1 for a reason. the brewers are 5/1 for a reason. it means there chances of going far are pretty good. the brewers being 3/1 to win the nlcs means there's a good chance it happens.

So would you consider it a good bet if the Brewers were, say, 2/5 favorites? After all, if they are such a stone cold lock to win, it's got to be a no-brainer.

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Is it too late for gomez to rescind the appeal? If hes gonna be out a few days anyway, might as well get the suspension out of the way at the same time.
Remember what Yoda said:

 

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."

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value is worthless if the team loses. there's no value in a 100/1 bet. the team is 100/1 for a reason. the brewers are 5/1 for a reason. it means there chances of going far are pretty good. the brewers being 3/1 to win the nlcs means there's a good chance it happens.

So would you consider it a good bet if the Brewers were, say, 2/5 favorites? After all, if they are such a stone cold lock to win, it's got to be a no-brainer.

 

no because I would make very little money. there's no such thing as a no-brainer in betting. never has and never will be. some teams just have better chances than others. the brewers at 5-1 is still a good bet because i can make decent money if i win and them being at 5-1 is a good sign. as a fan, if i saw the brewers at 2/5 i would be happy since it's a strong indicator that the brewers will be good. as a bettor, i would pass on that bet.

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