2014-05-11 Yankees (Phelps) at Brewers (Garza), 1:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 6-5, on Reynolds' walkoff single]

[Oxy]

I'm just going to point out that the 5th run we scored (in the 6th) was 100% due to the contact play being on. This means that we have another 15 times or so that it DOESN'T work before the stats actually start to even out.

 

In other words, the contact play is a good thing. It rarely has to work in order for the numbers to work out.

Could you walk through this logic? I'm not trying to argue or call you out, I just need help understanding how one score is equal to fifteen outs on the basepaths. What am I not adding to the calculation?

 

You don't actually "lose" an out when the contact play on. You merely exchange positions on the basepaths--the out is at home instead of at 1st base. When guys are on 2nd and 3rd with the contact play on, if they throw him out at the plate you now have guys on 1st and 3rd. If you DON'T have the contact play on, he throws the batter out at first and you have guys on.... 2nd and 3rd rather than 1st and 3rd.

 

People get all riled up because it seems bad to get thrown out at home. Still, the risk is worth it, as even 1 run is a big deal as opposed to a guy on first rather than 2nd base.

[RightFieldCoder]

The contact play with two runners on (especially 1st and 3rd) makes sense. I was thinking of the contact play with only one runner on. Going from runner on 3rd to runner on 1st is usually a bad swap. I was also wondering if there was a mathematical reason for the number 15 being used.

[Oxy]

The contact play with two runners on (especially 1st and 3rd) makes sense. I was thinking of the contact play with only one runner on. Going from runner on 3rd to runner on 1st is usually a bad swap. I was also wondering if there was a mathematical reason for the number 15 being used.

 

I went through it once last year I believe using run expectancy charts, and I remember it being something around 15. There are way too many variables and situations for the number to actually be accurate anyway.

 

I do agree that it is dumb with a guy on 3rd and 0 outs, but I don't think Roenicke has it on in that situation. Guy on 3rd and 1 out it's only half dumb, if I recall. 2 guys on and it should always be on, no matter if it's 1st and 2nd or 2nd and 3rd.

[SoupTown]

Forgive me... but I was following all and understanding, then I saw the contact play (run on ground ball contact) is good with runners on 1st and 2nd. I agree. (but it deflates the rest of the discussion!)

[Oxy]

Forgive me... but I was following all and understanding, then I saw the contact play (run on ground ball contact) is good with runners on 1st and 2nd. I agree. (but it deflates the rest of the discussion!)

 

It's also a good idea with just a guy on first

 

Ghost runners are VERY difficult to tag.