The sky is not falling, the 2014 edition

[monty57]

I see people saying that we're getting 'bad offense' or 'the offense is slumping' or (to quote monty) 'putrid offense from a lot of players'

 

Lucroy OPS+ 128

Reynolds OPS+ 111

Gennett OPS+ 100

Gomez OPS+ 151

Braun OPS + 154

Ramirez OPS+ 92

 

That's 6 guys who are either above, at, or just below average.

 

Maldonado and Weeks, when they play, have been above average. Bianchi has sucked, and Schafer is sub-par, but they are not on the team for their bats. Overbay has been disappointing, but I don't think anyone expected him to bring the thunder at age 37.

 

The only guys that are REALLY slumping and hurting the team are Segura and Davis. And mostly due to the fact that neither of them will take a walk

 

The team OPS is .710. The NL OPS is .702. People keep saying "the offense sucks, we're not getting offense, we need to get guys out of slumps." The offense is just a hair above average, and most of the guys are doing what they would be expected to do......and honestly, I'm not surprised given Ramirez's age and penchant for slow starts that he's hitting the way he is. I just hope we don't see another season of him on the sidelines for 60 - 70 - 80 games, because Mark Reynolds playing 3B while another Clown Car full of terrible first basemen will ruin the hopes of this promising season.

 

Yes, offense is down throughout the league this season, so a relative stat will show that even though some guys are performing poorly, relative to other guys performing poorly they aren't that bad. Here's the OPS:

 

the good (398 AB)

 

Braun .938 - about what's expected for a star player. Unfortunately only 90 AB on the season. I don't think the HGH helped his numbers, it just helped keep him on the field.

Gomez .924 - excellent all-around play

Lucroy .827 - one of the best catchers in the game

Maldonado 1.008 - been great in the 24 AB he's been given this season

 

the okay (272 AB)

 

Reynolds .782 - he's doing pretty well, and has been bouncing between the high .700 to mid-.800 OPS all season

Weeks .766 - better than many would've expected in his limited role (45 AB)

Gennett .730 - not good, but probably around what we should expect from him, and enough to keep him in the majors while he's inexpensive

 

the bad (600 AB)

 

Ramirez .699 - annual slow start, or old age catching up?

Davis .646 - a trip to AAA would probably help him get things straightened out

Segura .631- I really hope the start to last year wasn't a mirage

Schafer .618 - only 50 AB. I've liked Schafer for a long time, but he's looking more and more like his best role will be as the 5th OF used mainly for defense

Overbay .588 - why is he taking PAs away from Reynolds?

Herrera .576 - I know he's a bench guy, but he's got 1/3 as many ABs as Braun so far.

Gindl .462 - I wanted so badly for him to hit the ground running... he didn't

Bianchi .371 - yes, that's his OPS, not his OBP

 

So I'll stand by my statement of "putrid offense from a lot of players." Note, I didn't say everyone, as we have a few guys who have carried the load quite well. I'm not surprised Ramirez's numbers are down, but I've said for a while that an injury to him would really hurt the team, as it means Overbay will play every day. Braun missing a lot of time also isn't surprising, but disappointing nonetheless, as it means Schafer plays nearly everyday, and we were forced to watch Herrera and Reynolds in the OF. Hopefully Gomez's back doesn't become an issue, because he and Lucroy are the only healthy, reliable guys we have.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I see people saying that we're getting 'bad offense' or 'the offense is slumping' or (to quote monty) 'putrid offense from a lot of players'

 

Lucroy OPS+ 128

Reynolds OPS+ 111

Gennett OPS+ 100

Gomez OPS+ 151

Braun OPS + 154

Ramirez OPS+ 92

 

That's 6 guys who are either above, at, or just below average.

 

Maldonado and Weeks, when they play, have been above average. Bianchi has sucked, and Schafer is sub-par, but they are not on the team for their bats. Overbay has been disappointing, but I don't think anyone expected him to bring the thunder at age 37.

 

The only guys that are REALLY slumping and hurting the team are Segura and Davis. And mostly due to the fact that neither of them will take a walk

 

The team OPS is .710. The NL OPS is .702. People keep saying "the offense sucks, we're not getting offense, we need to get guys out of slumps." The offense is just a hair above average, and most of the guys are doing what they would be expected to do......and honestly, I'm not surprised given Ramirez's age and penchant for slow starts that he's hitting the way he is. I just hope we don't see another season of him on the sidelines for 60 - 70 - 80 games, because Mark Reynolds playing 3B while another Clown Car full of terrible first basemen will ruin the hopes of this promising season.

 

Yes, offense is down throughout the league this season, so a relative stat will show that even though some guys are performing poorly, relative to other guys performing poorly they aren't that bad. Here's the OPS:

 

the good (398 AB)

 

Braun .938 - about what's expected for a star player. Unfortunately only 90 AB on the season. I don't think the HGH helped his numbers, it just helped keep him on the field.

Gomez .924 - excellent all-around play

Lucroy .827 - one of the best catchers in the game

Maldonado 1.008 - been great in the 24 AB he's been given this season

 

the okay (272 AB)

 

Reynolds .782 - he's doing pretty well, and has been bouncing between the high .700 to mid-.800 OPS all season

Weeks .766 - better than many would've expected in his limited role (45 AB)

Gennett .730 - not good, but probably around what we should expect from him, and enough to keep him in the majors while he's inexpensive

 

the bad (600 AB)

 

Ramirez .699 - annual slow start, or old age catching up?

Davis .646 - a trip to AAA would probably help him get things straightened out

Segura .631- I really hope the start to last year wasn't a mirage

Schafer .618 - only 50 AB. I've liked Schafer for a long time, but he's looking more and more like his best role will be as the 5th OF used mainly for defense

Overbay .588 - why is he taking PAs away from Reynolds?

Herrera .576 - I know he's a bench guy, but he's got 1/3 as many ABs as Braun so far.

Gindl .462 - I wanted so badly for him to hit the ground running... he didn't

Bianchi .371 - yes, that's his OPS, not his OBP

 

So I'll stand by my statement of "putrid offense from a lot of players." Note, I didn't say everyone, as we have a few guys who have carried the load quite well. I'm not surprised Ramirez's numbers are down, but I've said for a while that an injury to him would really hurt the team, as it means Overbay will play every day. Braun missing a lot of time also isn't surprising, but disappointing nonetheless, as it means Schafer plays nearly everyday, and we were forced to watch Herrera and Reynolds in the OF. Hopefully Gomez's back doesn't become an issue, because he and Lucroy are the only healthy, reliable guys we have.

 

 

Out of the "lot of players", almost all of the guys you mention are bench guys. Schafer is a 4th/5th OF with no power who doesn't take walks. Bianchi is a guy who doesn't take walks, and has no power. Gindl has had only a handful of plate appearances, and so....the only full time performers who are REALLY sucking, are Segura and Davis.

 

I give A-Ram an */disclaimer because we all know he's a slow starter, and he's 37. I just don't know how much longer we can expect him to be an .800 OPS guy. That being said, despite the "a lot of guys are hitting putrid", the offense is still in the upper half in the league.

 

If you cruise around the league, when you see managers that are forced to play bench guys, they're not plugging in above average guys too often. They're bench players because they're not good players.

[DuWayne Steurer]

You can browse around the league.

 

Atlanta has 3 guys on their entire roster with an OPS over .700. They have only ONE guy on their bench with an OPS over .500!!!!

 

The Dodgers have 4 starters with OPS over .800. On their bench, aside from Van Slyke, they have nobody OPS-ing .680

 

The Giants, with a resurgent offense, are in the same boat. 4 good hitters, with OPS over .800, and one guy on the bench with an OPS over .500.

 

Washington has 3 guys on their entire ROSTER with an OPS over .800, and 2 of them are on the DL.

 

Johnny Peralta leads the Cards in OPS at .818, and he's the only guy over .800. Their bench is pretty awful at the moment.

 

These are all teams with records of .500 or better. I don't know what people EXPECT, but I know what the reality is. Offense is at an absolute premium right now.

 

The only outlier is Colorado, and they quite literally, do not count, with that ballpark and hitting environment.

[logan82]

The NL OPS+ is 94 right now and the Brewers as a team have a 94 OPS+.

[monty57]

Out of the "lot of players", almost all of the guys you mention are bench guys.

 

That's why I listed the number of ABs. The "bad" section makes up around 1/2 the Brewer ABs this season.

 

You can browse around the league.

 

I know, that's why I said "Yes, offense is down throughout the league this season, so a relative stat will show that even though some guys are performing poorly, relative to other guys performing poorly they aren't that bad." But it doesn't mean you are somehow good if you are doing just as bad as the other guy.

 

I guess you have to look to see if there is a reason for the league-wide lack of offense. It is possible baseball did something they didn't tell anyone about (like switching baseballs), but that seems unlikely. It is also possible but unlikely that there were a lot of hitters (but not pitchers) on PEDs that got scared off of them after the suspensions last year. If there isn't a change that is causing the drop-off in offense, then it seems that it is simply an anomaly that offense is down across the league to start this season. Since this seems the most likely scenario, I am happy for the guys on our roster that are hitting well (relative to history and not relative to a small sample anomaly) and reiterate that we have a lot of players, taking up a lot of ABs, that are not hitting well (again relative to history and not relative to a small sample anomaly).

 

If I'm missing something, and some event has caused this to become the start of the next dead ball era, then I'll change my stance. Until then, I'm not going to celebrate the players taking up nearly half the team ABs who are sporting sub-.700 OPS. If I were a fan of Atlanta, San Fran or any of the other teams you listed, I'd feel the same.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I guess I'm just going to reiterate my stance that there's a lot of at bats getting eaten up by bench guys (Herrera, Bianchi, Schafer, Overbay, and Gindl have accounted for 235 PA's), and as I've pointed out, if you're expecting anything even close to league average out of bench guys, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. We have had injuries, and when you have injuries, you replace your starters with not-starters. Not-starters are not-starters for a reason, almost always because they're not as good as the starters.

 

And as Doug Melvin has been more than happy to show us in the past, if you can hit, he usually doesn't care if you can field all that well, he'll find a spot for you, so it's not lack of fielding acumen that separates the good from the bad in Brew-town.

[logan82]

Unless your name is Kendrys.

[HiAndTight]

Hiandtight,

 

Most of those players you mentioned were in the majors and weren't considered prospects Except Lawrie and Odorizzi. Peralta should have been ranked in the top 50. He is an ace. Include what he did last season. Braun has been fine so far this season with his production I expect no change. Your scenario wont happen with the offense.

 

 

I'll reiterate. The Brewers farm system was ranked between 10th and 13th that year from the sites that I look at.

 

And who cares if Escobar was in the big leagues? He was 23 years old. Gamel had very little major league experience. He was 24. The Brewers had 10 prospects with B rankings going into the 2010 season and Peralta and Odorizzi were ranked 7th and 8th....in the Brewers. Doesn't seem like the experts were calling our farm system "garbage."

 

So this narrative you've created that nobody thought the Brewers had talent is simply false.

 

You start out the argument by saying you don't care what the "so called experts," say because they said how bad our farm system was when we traded for Marcum and Greinke(and then follow that up by claiming they thought Peralta was garbage). You think they were proven wrong as a result of the Marcum and Greinke trade, yet the Brewers traded several players who had played in the big leagues already for Grienke(Which you seem to dismiss for some reason).

 

And you come back with, "of course Peralta should have been highly rated, he's an ace," despite the fact that you just claimed everyone thought he was garbage. I feel like the goal posts keep moving here. You make a claim, in this instance that the experts always understate the Brewers talent. When that's proven wrong, you add this new qualifier and just dismiss the facts.

 

Similar to what you did with Peralta. Who by the way, is NOT an ace yet. He's pitching great, but Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Lester, Strausburg, Waingwright, Grienke, Sale, Fernandez, these guys are aces. Peralta is a good young pitcher.

[The stache]

The Brewers are in the top 3 in talent in baseball. There offense hasn't even gotten going yet, and that's me being a realist. We know what their pitching can do.

 

No, we aren't. Not even close. You're dreaming.

 

Which franchises have better Major League talent than Milwaukee? Off the top of my head?

 

Washington. Los Angeles. Detroit. Boston. Baltimore. Texas. St. Louis. Atlanta.

 

I'd take the Major League talent those franchises have over Milwaukee any day of the week. If we're talking organizational talent, that list grows quickly.

 

Braun, Gomez, Peralta, and Lucroy are stars, or are stars in the making. Segura and Davis have potential. Segura showed it in the first half last year, as did Davis. They're struggling in their second go round. Time will tell if they can figure it out.

 

Ramirez and Gallardo are nice players, but both are on the decline. Ramirez can't stay healthy anymore. Gallardo is having a nice start to the season, but his velocity is down.

 

Who else do we have that is so talented? We have nobody at first or third anywhere else in the organization that one can point to and say "they're coming". Jimmy Nelson could be good. Tyler Thornburg has shown flashes. Tyrone Taylor and Orlando Arcia are the two guys in the minors I really want to see in two years. But compare those guys against a team like the Marlins. Even Miami compares favorably to our team. Giancarlo Stanton is the best power hitter in the game. Jose Fernandez is the best young pitcher in the game, and will be when he comes back from Tommy John. Christian Yelich is a stud, and he's going to win batting titles. And they are loaded with young talent-Marcel Ozuna, Jake Marisnick, Andrew Heaney, Justin Nicolino and Colin Moran.

 

If you ask the analysts we had a bad farm system with 1 good prospect in Lawrie. Yeah, they were totally shocked when we landed BOTH Marcum and Greinke. Many here were also.

 

No, we did not have a bad farm system. Keep reading, and be enlightened.

 

Hiandtight,

 

Most of those players you mentioned were in the majors and weren't considered prospects Except Lawrie and Odorizzi. Peralta should have been ranked in the top 50. He is an ace. Include what he did last season. Braun has been fine so far this season with his production I expect no change. Your scenario wont happen with the offense.

 

Hiandtight mentioned the following players:

 

Wily Peralta

Brett Lawrie

Jeremy Jeffress

Mat Gamel

Jake Odorizzi

Alcides Escobar

 

Here is where they have been ranked in the Top 100 Prospects in baseball, per Baseball America (bold designates ranking with another organization):

 

Wily Peralta 69 (2011), 56 (2012)

Brett Lawrie 81 (2009), 59 (2010), 40 (2011)

Jeremy Jeffress 100 (2009)

Mat Gamel 34 (2009), 89 (2010)

Jake Odorizzi 69 (2011), 68 (2012), 92 (2013), 67 (2014)

Alcides Escobar 19 (2009), 12 (2010)

 

Also:

 

Matt LaPorta 23 (2008), 27 (2009)

Manny Parra 72 (2008)

 

So, again, I bring this quote back into play:

 

If you ask the analysts we had a bad farm system with 1 good prospect in Lawrie. Yeah, they were totally shocked when we landed BOTH Marcum and Greinke. Many here were also.

 

Between 2008 and 2009, the two years before our trades for Greinke and Marcum, we had six players that ranked in the top 100 prospects in baseball. Your contention that we had a bad farm system is patently false.

 

In fact, we had 4 elite (top 50) prospects in Matt LaPorta, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Brett Lawrie.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Hiandtight,

 

Most of those players you mentioned were in the majors and weren't considered prospects Except Lawrie and Odorizzi. Peralta should have been ranked in the top 50. He is an ace. Include what he did last season. Braun has been fine so far this season with his production I expect no change. Your scenario wont happen with the offense.

 

 

I'll reiterate. The Brewers farm system was ranked between 10th and 13th that year from the sites that I look at.

 

And who cares if Escobar was in the big leagues? He was 23 years old. Gamel had very little major league experience. He was 24. The Brewers had 10 prospects with B rankings going into the 2010 season and Peralta and Odorizzi were ranked 7th and 8th....in the Brewers. Doesn't seem like the experts were calling our farm system "garbage."

 

So this narrative you've created that nobody thought the Brewers had talent is simply false.

 

You start out the argument by saying you don't care what the "so called experts," say because they said how bad our farm system was when we traded for Marcum and Greinke(and then follow that up by claiming they thought Peralta was garbage). You think they were proven wrong as a result of the Marcum and Greinke trade, yet the Brewers traded several players who had played in the big leagues already for Grienke(Which you seem to dismiss for some reason).

 

And you come back with, "of course Peralta should have been highly rated, he's an ace," despite the fact that you just claimed everyone thought he was garbage. I feel like the goal posts keep moving here. You make a claim, in this instance that the experts always understate the Brewers talent. When that's proven wrong, you add this new qualifier and just dismiss the facts.

 

Similar to what you did with Peralta. Who by the way, is NOT an ace yet. He's pitching great, but Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Lester, Strausburg, Waingwright, Grienke, Sale, Fernandez, these guys are aces. Peralta is a good young pitcher.

 

They had major league experience or were on the major league ball club. At that point they aren't considered prospects. They are MLB players. Odorizzi, Lawrie were pretty much it. Everybody else was in the Majors. If you look at that Greinke trade how many players were from the MLB ball club? I counted 3 and they were the main pieces. Why did we have to trade them, because we had no one else left in the Minors, because Lawrie was traded for Marcum already, which left Odorizzi. Also, I challege you to bring up that trade thread on Greinke and look at how many here were shocked that we got him with such a depleated farm system. Those players we traded could have very easily been major pieces to the Brewers future plans and were looking pretty good in the Majors..

 

There's a difference between a #1 and an Ace. You named the aces. Peralta is past a #2 and is now a #1. Look at what he did yet again today. He starts pitching complete games he will be an ace. Also, Stach I was talking about the year of the Greinke/Marcum trades. LaPorta was traded prior for CC Sabathia. He doesn't count in this debate.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The Brewers are in the top 3 in talent in baseball. There offense hasn't even gotten going yet, and that's me being a realist. We know what their pitching can do.

 

No, we aren't. Not even close. You're dreaming.

 

Which franchises have better Major League talent than Milwaukee? Off the top of my head?

 

Washington. Los Angeles. Detroit. Boston. Baltimore. Texas. St. Louis. Atlanta.

 

I'd take the Major League talent those franchises have over Milwaukee any day of the week. If we're talking organizational talent, that list grows quickly.

 

Braun, Gomez, Peralta, and Lucroy are stars, or are stars in the making. Segura and Davis have potential. Segura showed it in the first half last year, as did Davis. They're struggling in their second go round. Time will tell if they can figure it out.

 

Ramirez and Gallardo are nice players, but both are on the decline. Ramirez can't stay healthy anymore. Gallardo is having a nice start to the season, but his velocity is down.

 

Who else do we have that is so talented? We have nobody at first or third anywhere else in the organization that one can point to and say "they're coming". Jimmy Nelson could be good. Tyler Thornburg has shown flashes. Tyrone Taylor and Orlando Arcia are the two guys in the minors I really want to see in two years. But compare those guys against a team like the Marlins. Even Miami compares favorably to our team. Giancarlo Stanton is the best power hitter in the game. Jose Fernandez is the best young pitcher in the game, and will be when he comes back from Tommy John. Christian Yelich is a stud, and he's going to win batting titles. And they are loaded with young talent-Marcel Ozuna, Jake Marisnick, Andrew Heaney, Justin Nicolino and Colin Moran.

 

If you ask the analysts we had a bad farm system with 1 good prospect in Lawrie. Yeah, they were totally shocked when we landed BOTH Marcum and Greinke. Many here were also.

 

No, we did not have a bad farm system. Keep reading, and be enlightened.

 

Hiandtight,

 

Most of those players you mentioned were in the majors and weren't considered prospects Except Lawrie and Odorizzi. Peralta should have been ranked in the top 50. He is an ace. Include what he did last season. Braun has been fine so far this season with his production I expect no change. Your scenario wont happen with the offense.

 

Hiandtight mentioned the following players:

 

Wily Peralta

Brett Lawrie

Jeremy Jeffress

Mat Gamel

Jake Odorizzi

Alcides Escobar

 

Here is where they have been ranked in the Top 100 Prospects in baseball, per Baseball America (bold designates ranking with another organization):

 

Wily Peralta 69 (2011), 56 (2012)

Brett Lawrie 81 (2009), 59 (2010), 40 (2011)

Jeremy Jeffress 100 (2009)

Mat Gamel 34 (2009), 89 (2010)

Jake Odorizzi 69 (2011), 68 (2012), 92 (2013), 67 (2014)

Alcides Escobar 19 (2009), 12 (2010)

 

Also:

 

Matt LaPorta 23 (2008), 27 (2009)

Manny Parra 72 (2008)

 

So, again, I bring this quote back into play:

 

If you ask the analysts we had a bad farm system with 1 good prospect in Lawrie. Yeah, they were totally shocked when we landed BOTH Marcum and Greinke. Many here were also.

 

Between 2008 and 2009, the two years before our trades for Greinke and Marcum, we had six players that ranked in the top 100 prospects in baseball. Your contention that we had a bad farm system is patently false.

 

In fact, we had 4 elite (top 50) prospects in Matt LaPorta, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Brett Lawrie.

 

see my post to hiand tight above.

[logan82]

The Brewers are in the top 3 in talent in baseball. There offense hasn't even gotten going yet, and that's me being a realist. We know what their pitching can do.

 

No, we aren't. Not even close. You're dreaming.

 

Which franchises have better Major League talent than Milwaukee? Off the top of my head?

 

Washington. Los Angeles. Detroit. Boston. Baltimore. Texas. St. Louis. Atlanta.

 

I'd take the Major League talent those franchises have over Milwaukee any day of the week. If we're talking organizational talent, that list grows quickly.

 

Braun, Gomez, Peralta, and Lucroy are stars, or are stars in the making. Segura and Davis have potential. Segura showed it in the first half last year, as did Davis. They're struggling in their second go round. Time will tell if they can figure it out.

 

Ramirez and Gallardo are nice players, but both are on the decline. Ramirez can't stay healthy anymore. Gallardo is having a nice start to the season, but his velocity is down.

 

Who else do we have that is so talented? We have nobody at first or third anywhere else in the organization that one can point to and say "they're coming". Jimmy Nelson could be good. Tyler Thornburg has shown flashes. Tyrone Taylor and Orlando Arcia are the two guys in the minors I really want to see in two years. But compare those guys against a team like the Marlins. Even Miami compares favorably to our team. Giancarlo Stanton is the best power hitter in the game. Jose Fernandez is the best young pitcher in the game, and will be when he comes back from Tommy John. Christian Yelich is a stud, and he's going to win batting titles. And they are loaded with young talent-Marcel Ozuna, Jake Marisnick, Andrew Heaney, Justin Nicolino and Colin Moran.

 

If you ask the analysts we had a bad farm system with 1 good prospect in Lawrie. Yeah, they were totally shocked when we landed BOTH Marcum and Greinke. Many here were also.

 

No, we did not have a bad farm system. Keep reading, and be enlightened.

 

Hiandtight,

 

Most of those players you mentioned were in the majors and weren't considered prospects Except Lawrie and Odorizzi. Peralta should have been ranked in the top 50. He is an ace. Include what he did last season. Braun has been fine so far this season with his production I expect no change. Your scenario wont happen with the offense.

 

Hiandtight mentioned the following players:

 

Wily Peralta

Brett Lawrie

Jeremy Jeffress

Mat Gamel

Jake Odorizzi

Alcides Escobar

 

Here is where they have been ranked in the Top 100 Prospects in baseball, per Baseball America (bold designates ranking with another organization):

 

Wily Peralta 69 (2011), 56 (2012)

Brett Lawrie 81 (2009), 59 (2010), 40 (2011)

Jeremy Jeffress 100 (2009)

Mat Gamel 34 (2009), 89 (2010)

Jake Odorizzi 69 (2011), 68 (2012), 92 (2013), 67 (2014)

Alcides Escobar 19 (2009), 12 (2010)

 

Also:

 

Matt LaPorta 23 (2008), 27 (2009)

Manny Parra 72 (2008)

 

So, again, I bring this quote back into play:

 

If you ask the analysts we had a bad farm system with 1 good prospect in Lawrie. Yeah, they were totally shocked when we landed BOTH Marcum and Greinke. Many here were also.

 

Between 2008 and 2009, the two years before our trades for Greinke and Marcum, we had six players that ranked in the top 100 prospects in baseball. Your contention that we had a bad farm system is patently false.

 

In fact, we had 4 elite (top 50) prospects in Matt LaPorta, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Brett Lawrie.

 

see my post to hiand tight above.

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/blog/wp-content/uploads/bth_Judge-Judy-Shake-My-Head-Gif_zps3e0e5a33.gif

[PrinceFielderx1]

Logan,

 

It's not my fault you guys have bad memories. If you can't debate the post don't quote it. Stache's and hiandtights posts were linked.

[TooLiveBrew]

Logan,

 

It's not my fault you guys have bad memories. If you can't debate the post don't quote it. Stache's and hiandtights posts were linked.

Dude. You're wrong. Just be grateful that 'Stache provided the information for you to review... that was an excellent response from him.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Logan,

 

It's not my fault you guys have bad memories. If you can't debate the post don't quote it. Stache's and hiandtights posts were linked.

Dude. You're wrong. Just be grateful that 'Stache provided the information for you to review... that was an excellent response from him.

 

He posted Major league players that wern't considered farm system, because they were starting for the Brewers and on the 25 man roster. He also forgot Lorenzo Cain. Escobar, Cain, Jeffress were all on the major league roster. The only prospect we gave up for Greinke was Odorizzi and I think some other a-ball or aa- pitcher. Even Gamel I believe was called up and on the major league team. You'll have to explain to me along with Stache if we had such a great farm why did we have to trade MLB players to get Greinke with only 1 good prospect?

[TooLiveBrew]

You yourself said that Peralta's prospect status should've been adjusted by his big-league stats last season, while also saying that once a player is in the bigs, he's no longer a prospect.

 

"Prospect" is a fluid concept, and by the opinion of the organizations that make lots of money on evaluating & ranking prospects (aka the experts), all the guys listed in 'Stache's post were prospects. I get that you really really enjoy being right, but in this case you aren't, & there's nothing wrong with that. Just accept it & move on.

[PrinceFielderx1]

You yourself said that Peralta's prospect status should've been adjusted by his big-league stats last season, while also saying that once a player is in the bigs, he's no longer a prospect.

 

"Prospect" is a fluid concept, and by the opinion of the organizations that make lots of money on evaluating & ranking prospects (aka the experts), all the guys listed in 'Stache's post were prospects. I get that you really really enjoy being right, but in this case you aren't, & there's nothing wrong with that. Just accept it & move on.

 

I was correct, because those players at that time that Stache listed were on the "Brewers" 25 man roster and not prospects. Peralta isn't a prospect. He lost that status last season. Odorizzi however was a prospect, and so was Lawrie, However I was mainly referring to the Grenkie trade, because at that time Lawrie was already traded and gone. The other players Stache listed were on the Brewers 25 man roster and starting for the Brewers. Escobar was manning SS, Cain was in CF, Jeffress was in the bullpen, you get the point. People were is shock that the Brewers would give up those starting "MLB" players for Greinke. Notice that since they were already playing a major role with the Brewers by mid-season fans weren't considering them prospect anymore. They weren't, which makes my other point in that perception was we had nothing to give up to get Greinke or not enough in terms of prospects.

 

I do like being right; especially with how much I've been right with dating back to last September. I just know this team so well. Can't help it. Remember you brought this up not me.

[DuWayne Steurer]

You're narrowly defining things by your view, and throwing everything else out the window. Everyone else says "this guy with X amount of MLB service time" (including the guys you call 'so called experts' with snarky sarcasm) is still a prospect. When Segura came up in 2012, he was still a prospect. Just because you want to stick your head in the sand and disagree with EVERYONE ELSE doesn't make you right. It just means you're disagreeable.

[PrinceFielderx1]

You're narrowly defining things by your view, and throwing everything else out the window. Everyone else says "this guy with X amount of MLB service time" (including the guys you call 'so called experts' with snarky sarcasm) is still a prospect. When Segura came up in 2012, he was still a prospect. Just because you want to stick your head in the sand and disagree with EVERYONE ELSE doesn't make you right. It just means you're disagreeable.

 

Considering that despite having what analysts call bad farm system, and the fact that despite all of that DM still pulls of these trades and get's other GM's to bite tells me that we have a damn good GM and that the analysts must be very confused. Look your totally correct I think the whole prospect ranking system is pointless and needs to go away and there just needs to be a top 15 list and that's it. I also believe scouting reports change within the same season, meaning what it says at the start isn't what it will be in the middle and end due to adjustments. I really could careless about these analysts. They are becoming extinct with all of this new and available statistical data. Any fan can be one.

[logan82]

You're narrowly defining things by your view, and throwing everything else out the window. Everyone else says "this guy with X amount of MLB service time" (including the guys you call 'so called experts' with snarky sarcasm) is still a prospect. When Segura came up in 2012, he was still a prospect. Just because you want to stick your head in the sand and disagree with EVERYONE ELSE doesn't make you right. It just means you're disagreeable.

That's why I thought a GIF was the best reply.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Go Brewers.

 

http://lollercoaster.me/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/1253047376982586.jpeg

[adambr2]

Do you really think we went from 20th or so in overall talent last year to top 3, just like that? Just by adding Garza?

 

Thornburg is good, Davis is okay, and Will Smith was a nice acquisition.

 

I can't overstate the historical fallacy of declaring a division race over less than a quarter into the season. "I think we will win the division" and "This is going to be over by the end of April" are two way different things. I think it's about 50/50 that we make the playoffs right now as of this very moment. That's a lot better than I figured before the season, so I'll take it.

 

There's nothing wrong with being optimistic, but it's not particularly credible when you twist every possible scenario in favor of the Brewers (their bats will come around, they can do more offensively than this), and completely ignore the flip side (guys like K-Rod, Duke, and Smith are pitching over their heads, and most of the rotation is likely to face a bit of a dropoff by season's end).

 

Could we win the division? Sure, it could happen. Will we be in 1st every day from now until the end of the season? I tend to doubt it. St. Louis, unfortunately, is much much better than you are giving them credit for. They did not go from NL Champs to middling .500 team in the last year. They will go on a run at some point. It's not if, but when, and we'll have to ride that out to keep our lead.

 

This is still a fairly loaded division. Don't let the early season records fool you. Anyone besides the Cubs could go on a run and get back in it at some point.

[adambr2]

Also, the "they'll pick it up" theory applies to our competition too, not just us. St. Louis is 25th in runs and OPS. Do you think that's going to keep up?

[The stache]

I was correct, because those players at that time that Stache listed were on the "Brewers" 25 man roster and not prospects.

Sigh.

 

You are 100% WRONG. When everybody else is telling you that you are wrong, maybe you should consider that you do not know what you are talking about ?!

 

A player being on a Major League Team's 25 man roster does not in any way preclude them from being listed as a prospect.

 

From MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect page:

 

To be eligible for a list, a player must have rookie eligibility. To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service.

To summarize:

 

A player can be considered a prospect when they have rookie eligibility.

A player has rookie eligibility when they have not exceeded 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on the active roster of a Major League team (or teams) during the 25-player limit period.

 

Ergo, a player can be on a Major League team's 25 man roster, and still be considered both a rookie and a prospect.

 

Capiche?

 

Did Escobar exceed the referenced 45 day limit?

 

The 40 man roster for the 2009 season began on September 1st. Alcides Escobar was on the 25 man roster, first being brought up on August 12th. From August 12th to August 31st is 20 days. He did not exceed 45 days during the 25-player limit period.

 

Answer? No.

 

What about the 130 at bat maximum. Did he exceed that?

 

Escobar had 4 at bats in 2008. He had another 125 at bats in 2009, for a total of 129 at bats.

 

Answer? No.

 

So...

 

-He hadn't exceeded the number of days (45) on the 25-player limit period. AND

-He hadn't accumulated more than 130 at bats.

 

Therefore (gasp), he was still considered a rookie prospect prior to the 2010 season!

 

Now...

 

Organizational rankings are done by Baseball America prior to the start of the season, in very late March or early April. They do not do them again until the following spring. So, when scouts discuss a team's farm system, it is based on start of the year talent. It would be impossible for scouts to adjust their farm system-talent assessment with every player trade, every promotion to the Majors, and every injury.

 

So, let's now examine your assessment that "the Brewers had a bad farm system" immediately before acquiring Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke, shall we?

 

First of all, let's review the Milwaukee Brewer prospects that appeared in Baseball America's Top 100 for the 2010 season:

 

Alcides Escobar #12

Brett Lawrie #59

Mat Gamel #89

 

And just where did Baseball America have the Milwaukee Brewers farm system ranked out of 30 teams?

 

http://imageshack.com/a/img841/9167/g81k.png

 

Thirteenth, a year after being ranked 10th. Want to look for yourself? Here's the link:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2010-organization-talent-rankings-9739/

 

You'd have to log in to see it, so you need to be a member.

 

If you ask the analysts we had a bad farm system with 1 good prospect in Lawrie. Yeah, they were totally shocked when we landed BOTH Marcum and Greinke. Many here were also.

I don't know what analysts you were talking to, but we had 3 excellent prospects with others that would make it into the top 100 the next season. Escobar was one of the elite prospects in baseball, and Gamel soon would be, as would Lawrie.

 

Stop this untenable argument, and just admit you are wrong. Because, well, you are. The Brewers farm system was held in high regard prior to the parent club's acquisitions of Greinke and Marcum.

[The stache]

He posted Major league players that wern't considered farm system, because they were starting for the Brewers and on the 25 man roster. He also forgot Lorenzo Cain. Escobar, Cain, Jeffress were all on the major league roster. The only prospect we gave up for Greinke was Odorizzi and I think some other a-ball or aa- pitcher. Even Gamel I believe was called up and on the major league team. You'll have to explain to me along with Stache if we had such a great farm why did we have to trade MLB players to get Greinke with only 1 good prospect?

 

This post is just full of fail.

 

First of all, I did not forget Lorenzo Cain. He was never a Top 100 Prospect, and I have not included prospects that failed to reach the Top 100. Otherwise, I would be stuck in this topic forever.

 

We traded 3 prospects that were ranked in the Top 100, or soon would be: Jeremy Jeffress (#100 prospect, 2009), Jake Odorizzi (#69 prospect, 2011), and Alcides Escobar (#12 prospect, 2010). So, again, you're wrong.

 

Again, see my last post. You seem to have this fixation that MLB players (and by that, you mean MLB players on the 25 man roster) and prospects are mutually exclusive. Until a player exceeds the threshold for rookie status, a player can still be both a Major League player on a 25 man roster, and a prospect.