The sky is not falling, the 2014 edition

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

The Brewers are in the top 3 in talent in baseball. There offense hasn't even gotten going yet, and that's me being a realist. We know what their pitching can do.

 

 

That's you being a 'realist'?

 

Most people would have a hard time saying that with a straight face, yet claim to say it while being a 'realist'. Most prognosticators had the Brewers as a darkhorse wild card candidate at best coming into the season, and I think that's still probably about right. We have a decent team that got off to a ridiculously hot start based on outstanding pitching, and a bullpen that's been out-of-it's mind good for a month and a half.

[PrinceFielderx1]

 

The Brewers are in the top 3 in talent in baseball. There offense hasn't even gotten going yet, and that's me being a realist. We know what their pitching can do.

 

 

That's you being a 'realist'?

 

Most people would have a hard time saying that with a straight face, yet claim to say it while being a 'realist'. Most prognosticators had the Brewers as a darkhorse wild card candidate at best coming into the season, and I think that's still probably about right. We have a decent team that got off to a ridiculously hot start based on outstanding pitching, and a bullpen that's been out-of-it's mind good for a month and a half.

 

The realist knew the Brewers would be good, but the people that know this team the best knew they'd be contending for the division. I stand by that.

[HiAndTight]

The Brewers are in the top 3 in talent in baseball. There offense hasn't even gotten going yet, and that's me being a realist. We know what their pitching can do.

I think you could argue there are 3 teams in our DIVISION with more pure talent than the Brewers.

Especially when the Pirates bring up Polanco and have one of the most physically talented OF's of the last 30 years.

We have exactly ONE star player in Ryan Braun and he's dealing with a thumb injury that has changed his approach at the plate.

K-Rod was a bad pitcher for the O's last year and now he's Mariano Rivera(but slightly better). I know what their pitching can do over 6 weeks. I have no illusions that I "know," what our pitching is over a 162 game season with so many young pitchers and 5 starters who are at best low 2, high 3 types.

 

I don't even know how else to respond to this other than to say that I don't believe anyone can make a honest, sincere argument we're more talented than the Dodgers, Tigers, Cards, , Rangers or Nationals just off the top of my head. And those are just the teams that are just MUCH-MUCH more talented.

 

Now talent isn't everything. Baseball is a game that depends on luck and sometimes the best teams don't win. Which is why I'm excited about the hot start and having fun and am optimistic right now. But if you put the Brewers lineup and the Tigers lineup together for example, where exactly are we better? They have 3 aces in their rotation, the best pure hitter in baseball(or 2nd, either way), and a loaded lineup around him. The Dodgers have 3 aces, 4 all star OF'ers along with another top OF prospect in the minors, a really good young 2nd basemen, an elite 1st basemen and about a billion dollars to add to their talent. The Cards...they bring in guys who throw 98 like we bring in new baseballs.

 

 

But hey, I wish I was as..."enthusiastic," as you are, but it's going to take more than a very good start before I start to believe this team is one of the 3 more "talented," in baseball. In terms of just major league talent on their roster or their most major league ready talent, I think they're closer to a top 15-ish team than top 3. So again, I'm just going to hope they continue to play well and things go there way. But we're certainly starting to see cracks.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The Brewers are in the top 3 in talent in baseball. There offense hasn't even gotten going yet, and that's me being a realist. We know what their pitching can do.

I think you could argue there are 3 teams in our DIVISION with more pure talent than the Brewers.

Especially when the Pirates bring up Polanco and have one of the most physically talented OF's of the last 30 years.

We have exactly ONE star player in Ryan Braun and he's dealing with a thumb injury that has changed his approach at the plate.

K-Rod was a bad pitcher for the O's last year and now he's Mariano Rivera(but slightly better). I know what their pitching can do over 6 weeks. I have no illusions that I "know," what our pitching is over a 162 game season with so many young pitchers and 5 starters who are at best low 2, high 3 types.

 

I don't even know how else to respond to this other than to say that I don't believe anyone can make a honest, sincere argument we're more talented than the Dodgers, Tigers, Cards, , Rangers or Nationals just off the top of my head. And those are just the teams that are just MUCH-MUCH more talented.

 

Now talent isn't everything. Baseball is a game that depends on luck and sometimes the best teams don't win. Which is why I'm excited about the hot start and having fun and am optimistic right now. But if you put the Brewers lineup and the Tigers lineup together for example, where exactly are we better? They have 3 aces in their rotation, the best pure hitter in baseball(or 2nd, either way), and a loaded lineup around him. The Dodgers have 3 aces, 4 all star OF'ers along with another top OF prospect in the minors, a really good young 2nd basemen, an elite 1st basemen and about a billion dollars to add to their talent. The Cards...they bring in guys who throw 98 like we bring in new baseballs.

 

 

But hey, I wish I was as..."enthusiastic," as you are, but it's going to take more than a very good start before I start to believe this team is one of the 3 more "talented," in baseball. In terms of just major league talent on their roster or their most major league ready talent, I think they're closer to a top 15-ish team than top 3. So again, I'm just going to hope they continue to play well and things go there way. But we're certainly starting to see cracks.

 

If you mean talent that was rated by so called analysts then you can spare me, because I don't really care what they say. They said our minor league system was so bad, but yet we were able to get Greinke, Marcum, and Peralta was a shock to them? Speaks for itself.

 

Braun hasn't changed his approach at the the plate and if he did he will be one of the best hitters ever to do that and still put up MVP numbers like he will do this season. Don't worry the power is still there and his ability to hit the ball out of the park anywhere on the field is alive and well.

 

K-Rod is this good. Will he blow saves? Yes. He's made an adjustment and his change-up has improved and he is locating. Look at his mechanics. They are better than ever. No fluke.

 

Our pitching is young and controlled for a wile and are a bunch of Number 2's except Peralta who is a #1. Isn't it great? Like I said I expect an era around 3.00.

 

ARAM will get it going and make a 1/2 threat with him and Braun, then when Segura get's out of his slump by making and adjustment it will be a 2,3,4, 5 threat with Lucroy behind him. Oh I almost forgot about Gomez leading off. So what is that a 1,2,3,4,5, threat? Davis will turn it around. He's been hitting at all the levels his whole career. To expect different isn't being realistic. He will come around.

 

We are winning all of these games on pitching, but what happens when the offense comes around even if the pitching does a little worse? Guys you seem cautious about giving into the pitching and comeing to clonclusions on it prematurely, but you are doing exactly that on the offense. Take a breather and relax and a little bit more logical.

[RobertR]

The Brewers are in the top 3 in talent in baseball. There offense hasn't even gotten going yet, and that's me being a realist. We know what their pitching can do.

I think you could argue there are 3 teams in our DIVISION with more pure talent than the Brewers.

Especially when the Pirates bring up Polanco and have one of the most physically talented OF's of the last 30 years.

We have exactly ONE star player in Ryan Braun and he's dealing with a thumb injury that has changed his approach at the plate.

 

Wait, Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy aren't stars? You have a different definition of star than I think most people do.

[SoupTown]

I read in a FanGraphs article on the Crew a couple weeks ago... how the consensus, the experts, the analysts, the WAR gurus, the sabre mechanics, the sports writers, the computers (and all the dogs and cats of the above) picked Boston for dead last... last year.

 

Dare I ask... how long does a team or a player need to play well to be declared good?

[DuWayne Steurer]

I read in a FanGraphs article on the Crew a couple weeks ago... how the consensus, the experts, the analysts, the WAR gurus, the sabre mechanics, the sports writers, the computers (and all the dogs and cats of the above) picked Boston for dead last... last year.

 

Dare I ask... how long does a team or a player need to play well to be declared good?

 

 

I don't think anyone is arguing (here) that they're not 'good'......

 

I'm seeing a few people (myself included) say that they're not top 3 talent.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I read in a FanGraphs article on the Crew a couple weeks ago... how the consensus, the experts, the analysts, the WAR gurus, the sabre mechanics, the sports writers, the computers (and all the dogs and cats of the above) picked Boston for dead last... last year.

 

Dare I ask... how long does a team or a player need to play well to be declared good?

 

 

I don't think anyone is arguing (here) that they're not 'good'......

 

I'm seeing a few people (myself included) say that they're not top 3 talent.

 

Hi and tight is saying the Brewers aren't one of the top teams in baseball and he was quite elaborate in say that the teams he mentioned were much much much more talented than the Brewers. He used talent as his basis for being good. I say who cares? The Brewers are a half game away from having the best record in baseball behind only SF. I'd say right now they are the second best team in baseball, and that's what matters.

 

All teams have cracks. All team will develop wear and tear as the season progresses. The question is who can keep it up and weather the storm. Think about this, the Brewers have the second best team in baseball right now with a slumping offense that's been slumping for quite some time.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The offense isn't slumping that bad, it's 6th in the league in runs scored. Runs are down all across the board this year. The league OPS is below .700. League ERA is right around 3.5

 

It's a different game this year.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The offense isn't slumping that bad, it's 6th in the league in runs scored. Runs are down all across the board this year. The league OPS is below .700. League ERA is right around 3.5

 

It's a different game this year.

 

 

Amazing. 6th in runs scored with the starter slumping problems/injury's we have had this year. This should tell everybody that we are for real and are one of the best teams.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The offense isn't slumping that bad, it's 6th in the league in runs scored. Runs are down all across the board this year. The league OPS is below .700. League ERA is right around 3.5

 

It's a different game this year.

 

 

Amazing. 6th in runs scored with the starter slumping problems/injury's we have had this year. This should tell everybody that we are for real and are one of the best teams.

 

 

Who is slumping? Braun, Gomez, Lucroy, Reynolds and Gennett are hitting like I'd expect them to. Aram is 37 years old. Him regressing is not unexpected. Overbay is old and regression is not unexpected either. Davis and Segura are struggling, and I suspect in large part due to horrible plate discipline. I'm not all that surprised by Davis' struggles. A lot of young guys tear through the league like he did the first time through last year. Pitchers adjust. Now we'll see if he does, or if he's a flame out.

 

You're making it sound like suddenly a bunch of guys are going to start ripping the cover off the ball, when in fact over half the lineup is producing right about as their career numbers and trajectories indicate they should be.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The offense isn't slumping that bad, it's 6th in the league in runs scored. Runs are down all across the board this year. The league OPS is below .700. League ERA is right around 3.5

 

It's a different game this year.

 

 

Amazing. 6th in runs scored with the starter slumping problems/injury's we have had this year. This should tell everybody that we are for real and are one of the best teams.

 

 

Who is slumping? Braun, Gomez, Lucroy, Reynolds and Gennett are hitting like I'd expect them to. Aram is 37 years old. Him regressing is not unexpected. Overbay is old and regression is not unexpected either. Davis and Segura are struggling, and I suspect in large part due to horrible plate discipline. I'm not all that surprised by Davis' struggles. A lot of young guys tear through the league like he did the first time through last year. Pitchers adjust. Now we'll see if he does, or if he's a flame out.

 

You're making it sound like suddenly a bunch of guys are going to start ripping the cover off the ball, when in fact over half the lineup is producing right about as their career numbers and trajectories indicate they should be.

 

The Brewers #2 hitter/SS in Segura and Davis. Brauns been out of the line-up. Yes they will get out of those slumps and start hitting.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

The Brewers #2 hitter/SS in Segura and Davis. Brauns been out of the line-up. Yes they will get out of those slumps and start hitting.

 

 

In his last 140 games, Segura is hitting .266 with an OBP south of .300. That's not a slump, it's an indicator.

[PrinceFielderx1]

 

The Brewers #2 hitter/SS in Segura and Davis. Brauns been out of the line-up. Yes they will get out of those slumps and start hitting.

 

 

In his last 140 games, Segura is hitting .266 with an OBP south of .300. That's not a slump, it's an indicator.

 

I call it the same thing. The reason why I call it the same thing is because an adjustment is needed in both circumstances. I look at Davis and Segura and the adjustments they need to make aren't that complex. It will take "some" time and getting used to, but they are young and will listen and take some pitches. Yes, it is that simple. Gomez went through the same thing, but he had years in the majors prior, so it was harder for him. Segura and Davis are new.

[logan82]

If you mean talent that was rated by so called analysts then you can spare me, because I don't really care what they say. They said our minor league system was so bad, but yet we were able to get Greinke, Marcum, and Peralta was a shock to them? Speaks for itself.

What are you even talking about here? When we traded for Marcum and Greinke we had a pretty well rated farm system. Peralta was a well regarded prospect while he was in the minors.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If you mean talent that was rated by so called analysts then you can spare me, because I don't really care what they say. They said our minor league system was so bad, but yet we were able to get Greinke, Marcum, and Peralta was a shock to them? Speaks for itself.

What are you even talking about here? When we traded for Marcum and Greinke we had a pretty well rated farm system. Peralta was a well regarded prospect while he was in the minors.

 

 

If you ask the analysts we had a bad farm system with 1 good prospect in Lawrie. Yeah, they were totally shocked when we landed BOTH Marcum and Greinke. Many here were also.

[torts]

nothing is better than the NL central beating up on itself.

[HiAndTight]

If you mean talent that was rated by so called analysts then you can spare me, because I don't really care what they say. They said our minor league system was so bad, but yet we were able to get Greinke, Marcum, and Peralta was a shock to them? Speaks for itself.

What are you even talking about here? When we traded for Marcum and Greinke we had a pretty well rated farm system. Peralta was a well regarded prospect while he was in the minors.

 

 

If you ask the analysts we had a bad farm system with 1 good prospect in Lawrie. Yeah, they were totally shocked when we landed BOTH Marcum and Greinke. Many here were also.

 

 

That's simply untrue.

Alcides Escobar was the 12th rated prospect in the Brewers farm system.

Orodrizzi was a top 50 prospect going into 2010.

Jeffress was a high ceiling guy who was an obvious risk, and Cain had some major league experience and performed well.

Mat Gamel was a top 100 prospect at the time of the trade.

 

And the Brewers farm system was rated around 10-13.

 

And going back to your comment that Peralta wasn't highly regarded, he was ALSO a consensus top 100 prospect as well as a top 50 prospect by several rankings.

 

So I think you have a false sense of persecution regarding the media and the Brewers.

 

 

Braun hasn't changed his approach at the the plate and if he did he will be one of the best hitters ever to do that and still put up MVP numbers like he will do this season. Don't worry the power is still there and his ability to hit the ball out of the park anywhere on the field is alive and well.

 

Braun has literally said that his thumb has forced him to change his approach at the plate and he doesn't know if it's even possible to get it fixed. I'm not going to pretend to look in a crystal ball and predict what he's going to do and you certainly can't tell me that a player who's dealing with injuries on a more consistent basis is GOING to put up MVP numbers.

 

Braun's very good and I'm sure he will continue to be. I'm simply concerned that he might deal with his thumb injury. I think just about every Brewers fan is, especially after there were rumors that he may have to have a season ending surgery on it when it got bad early in the year after he had 6 months of rest and that didn't fix it.

K-Rod is this good. Will he blow saves? Yes. He's made an adjustment and his change-up has improved and he is locating. Look at his mechanics. They are better than ever. No fluke.

 

No, K-Rod is NOT this good, no pitcher in the history of baseball is "this good," and his change-up has always been a fantastic pitch. Even when he was throwing 96-97 he wasn't "this good." This isn't even debatable.

Our pitching is young and controlled for a wile and are a bunch of Number 2's except Peralta who is a #1. Isn't it great? Like I said I expect an era around 3.00.

 

So Peralta is now a legit Ace after 45 innings? No, Peralta has the potential to MAYBE become an ace. Estrada is a #2? The other three are 2/3 type starters. We're good. Not great anywhere.

 

Peralta has to PROVE he's an ace for more than a few starts before I declare him an ace.

 

You say a lot of things. Everyone's ERA is significantly down this year, but we don't even have a 3.00 ERA RIGHT NOW and we've undoubtedly performed better than anyone should reasonably expect at this point.

 

ARAM will get it going and make a 1/2 threat with him and Braun, then when Segura get's out of his slump by making and adjustment it will be a 2,3,4, 5 threat with Lucroy behind him. Oh I almost forgot about Gomez leading off. So what is that a 1,2,3,4,5, threat? Davis will turn it around. He's been hitting at all the levels his whole career. To expect different isn't being realistic. He will come around.

 

So to expect everything to work out as well as we can possibly hope is the only realistic outcome and to question that MAYBE things won't go quite so well for everyone is being unrealistic?

 

We are winning all of these games on pitching, but what happens when the offense comes around even if the pitching does a little worse? Guys you seem cautious about giving into the pitching and comeing to clonclusions on it prematurely, but you are doing exactly that on the offense. Take a breather and relax and a little bit more logical.

 

What happens if the pitching struggles, Aram goes on the Disabled list as 37 year old players are known to do, Braun continues to deal with injuries, Gomez has an injury(As he injured his back tonight), Khris Davis and Segura continue to struggle and Rickie Weeks doesn't miraculously hit .330 all year long?

 

 

I applaud your optimism, and I truly hope that the Brewers can have one of those years. The type of year where you have players who play well above their heads, everything comes together, you get a couple nice surprises(Smith, Thornburg, Peralta) and our starting 5 keeps us in every game even if it lacks a true ace.

 

But you're just counting on literally EVERYTHING to work out nearly perfectly. That's just not realistic.

[HiAndTight]

The Brewers are in the top 3 in talent in baseball. There offense hasn't even gotten going yet, and that's me being a realist. We know what their pitching can do.

I think you could argue there are 3 teams in our DIVISION with more pure talent than the Brewers.

Especially when the Pirates bring up Polanco and have one of the most physically talented OF's of the last 30 years.

We have exactly ONE star player in Ryan Braun and he's dealing with a thumb injury that has changed his approach at the plate.

 

Wait, Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy aren't stars? You have a different definition of star than I think most people do.

 

 

Yes, of course Gomez is a star. Luc....I guess it depends on your definition of star. He's certainly looking like one. Especially as it looks like his defense has improved. He's throwing the ball much better and becoming more of a weapon vs the running game. I don't have the numbers, but you can see a cleaner release and more accurate throws. He's also quick behind the plate.

 

He's put up a WAR of 3.6 the past two seasons. That's on the brink of becoming a star to me, and he looks like he's improved even more this year.

 

So yes, I was perhaps hasty in excluding them(Gomez in particular). But I think my point about proven big league talent stands.

 

 

I also want to make it clear I don't think you have to be the most talented team to win. The Nationals were one of the most talented teams in the game last year and yet they didn't make the playoffs. You also need luck. A huge part of baseball.

 

I'm extremely excited and enthused about the start of this season. BUT....we're 39 games into the year. Less than a quarter of the way through. I'm just tempering my expectations a bit.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Hiandtight,

 

Most of those players you mentioned were in the majors and weren't considered prospects Except Lawrie and Odorizzi. Peralta should have been ranked in the top 50. He is an ace. Include what he did last season. Braun has been fine so far this season with his production I expect no change. Your scenario wont happen with the offense.

[Funketown]

Something curious I noticed about K-Rod is that his FB velocity is way down this year -- it was 91.4 last season but only 89.6 this season.

 

Somehow, they just need to find a way to keep winning while Ramirez, Braun, and Gomez are battling injuries. Fortunately the 25-14 start means there's a very good chance we'll be watching important baseball at least through the rest of the summer, and even if (when) they struggle through a stretch of baseball, they'll have a good chance at making the playoffs.

[monty57]

Your scenario wont happen with the offense

 

Well, Ramirez is on the DL and it is possible age is catching up with him. Braun just got off the DL, still has thumb issues and was removed from the game last night. Gomez was also removed last night. I don't know if there's been news on Braun and Gomez, but it is possible we start tonight's game with a lineup consisting of Lucroy, Overbay, Gennett, Segura, Reynolds, Davis, Schafer, Herrera. That's a Ned Yost "Sunday Special" offense, and we won't win if we have to put that type of offense out there too often.

 

I honestly don't know what to expect of a lot of our players. Ramirez is a notoriously slow starter, so his lack of offense so far could be just that, or it could be that he's old and slowing down. He's also getting injuries he never had before, and that could be age catching up with him. Gennett and Davis are both young, both relatively unheralded as prospects, and both came on like lightning last year, building unreasonable expectations for them. I hope they both succeed, but have a hard time projecting either of their careers. Segura is similar to Gennett and Davis except that he was more heralded as a prospect. He played like a Hall of Famer to start last year and again was given unfair expectations. Other than that short period, he's been good defensively but not so good offensively, so he's hard to project. I probably liked the Reynolds pick up more than most, but he's "boom or bust," so nobody can project where he'll be to end the season.

 

Meanwhile, most of our pitching staff does have a track record, and most of them are pitching better than their history would suggest is sustainable. We have not had any injuries, nor any "dry spells" from anyone on the staff, and that's not likely to continue.

 

The opposite has been true for most of the rest of the division, which has underperformed while the Brewers have overperformed. Bottom line is that I hope the Brewers get healthy and the hot start is enough to boost them to the playoffs while they come back down to earth and the rest of the teams in the division heat up. It has been fun watching them play this season, and maybe this will in fact be one of those "miracle seasons" where everything falls in their favor and they win it all. They've been able to survive putrid offense from many of their position players, and injuries to some key guys. "Clutch" has been on their side, so it's possible that Fate has decided it's the Brewers' year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I see people saying that we're getting 'bad offense' or 'the offense is slumping' or (to quote monty) 'putrid offense from a lot of players'

 

Lucroy OPS+ 128

Reynolds OPS+ 111

Gennett OPS+ 100

Gomez OPS+ 151

Braun OPS + 154

Ramirez OPS+ 92

 

That's 6 guys who are either above, at, or just below average.

 

Maldonado and Weeks, when they play, have been above average. Bianchi has sucked, and Schafer is sub-par, but they are not on the team for their bats. Overbay has been disappointing, but I don't think anyone expected him to bring the thunder at age 37.

 

The only guys that are REALLY slumping and hurting the team are Segura and Davis. And mostly due to the fact that neither of them will take a walk

 

The team OPS is .710. The NL OPS is .702. People keep saying "the offense sucks, we're not getting offense, we need to get guys out of slumps." The offense is just a hair above average, and most of the guys are doing what they would be expected to do......and honestly, I'm not surprised given Ramirez's age and penchant for slow starts that he's hitting the way he is. I just hope we don't see another season of him on the sidelines for 60 - 70 - 80 games, because Mark Reynolds playing 3B while another Clown Car full of terrible first basemen will ruin the hopes of this promising season.

[gregmag]

I think the last two posts draw a reasonable line between some excesses in both directions above. I'll just add three things in the optimistic direction.

 

First, we are unusually deep in MLB-quality pitching. None of our starters has been lights out; all but Garza have been reliable, and Garza hasn't been awful. If Gallardo and Peralta went down tomorrow, we'd be in good shape with Nelson and Fiers. That's our best marginal asset right now.

 

Second, our 1b were so bad last year that the position will be an improvement whatever we do. Plus it's the easiest position for finding replacement-level talent via trade or waivers. It's a serious weakness, and it could hurt us, but it's a better weakness to have than some others.

 

Third, I'm a believer in Davis. I put a fair amount of stock in minor league numbers, and Davis in the minors did nothing but hit. He made the necessary adjustments at every level, and I think he can do it here. He may also be a guy who needs some time to get going. Anyway, I think he'll lift the offense some before all is said and done.

[Funketown]

The offense has been fine up to this point, my concern is primarily what happens during this 15 games w/o Ramirez (or Braun when he inevitably spends a few days off again). Looking at the lineup I keep thinking it looks terrible, but Zips wRC+ projections for the injury lineup look pretty solid:

 

Gomez 121

Gennett 92

Braun 148

Lucroy 115

Reynolds 122

Davis 109

Overbay 87

Segura 98

 

Some of these (Reynolds/Segura) seem a bit overly optimistic, but overall I don't think it's as unreasonable as I initially thought to see decent production out of this lineup.