If Still Contenders in July, Do You See the Brewers Buying?

[logan82]

Every dollar spent matters so much more to a team like Milwaukee, the smallest market in the game, than it does the largest markets like NY. Every misspent dollar limits the ceiling of the team, are we really so desperate to prove the franchise is relevant that we need to keep overpaying for bad production from FAs? Overpaying for talent is the absolute worst way to operate a franchise regardless of sport, even in small doses. There is a better way than constantly trying to recycle someone else's castoffs into some useful every day player. It was necessary from 2003-2006 but we should be long past that philosophy by now... and before someone says it, Wang isn't a castoff, the Brewers astutely pilfered him from another organization, that's a completely different concept.

I don't agree with that as much as I used to. I don't think the money part is hurting us as much as the lack of talent. I would rather overpay in dollars a bit than in talent. I am not saying go out and win the market on the biggest names like Fielder or Greinke. I think you can get good midrange talent at a decent price. You absolutley have to acquire your top guys through means other than free agency. I wouldn't mind paying Hart this year but I absolutely do not want to give up any useful talent to get him.

[monty57]

But why overpay? If the Mariners want so badly to save money, then say "okay, we'll take him for $2MM." If the premise of this argument is correct, they're the ones who are stuck paying someone they don't want to pay. Why overpay and take all/most of a bad contract off their hands?

 

Again, it's the terminology. Overpaying means you are giving up more value than you are receiving. To say you would "rather overpay in dollars than in talent" means you are willing to give more than someone is worth. Whether that's dollars, players, or any other means of exchange, that's a bad idea. Rather, say "I would rather make a trade where we take on some salary in a trade than give up young, talented players in trade." Either way, you are trading fair value for fair value, and usually when trading for someone else's bad contract, you are able to underpay, meaning you are able to give up less value than you are receiving simply because you are relieving a team of a guaranteed obligation they do not want to pay.

 

Therefore, if you want Hart (or another overpaid player on a losing team), you should be able to underpay to get him.

 

One could argue that "winning" a bidding war by nature means you are "overpaying," as you are paying more than anyone else, but I like to think that the market sets the price. That said, everything has a price and a value, and in the heat of bidding wars, teams often find that they overpaid for the value they received. This is why it was a good thing that Melvin backed out of the bidding on Hart in the first place. He understood the value, made a (presumably) fair offer for the value. Seattle overbid and therefore overpaid in the open market. Now they're stuck and people are pining for us to relieve them of a bad obligation. As much as I dislike building a small market team through free agency, because the Brewers can't afford to pay 25 players "fair value" and need star players playing for significantly under value, I will give kudos to Melvin for setting a price based on player value and not going overvalue (overpaying) to get the player. If the player doesn't take fair value (or maybe even undervalue), then he lets them walk.

[monty57]

As an addendum to the previous post, assuming either of the options are viable options, I agree that if we are looking for a mid-season veteran upgrade, I would rather find a team looking to shed some payroll, and take on a little extra payroll to get a player instead of trading away promising prospects to get the player.

 

Either way, I wouldn't give more perceived value than I was receiving.

[SoupTown]

Gee some of you guys would be fun, over a beer, to say 'what a nice night it is'.

 

The comebacks, I can see it now... 'who defines what is nice'.... 'it is not night in Australia'.... 'my dog does not like 75 degrees'.... 'it is too humid'.... 'it is to dry'.... 'explain to me what is nice about it, I saw a mosquito'.... etc

 

re this comment "why should the Brewers ever overpay for anything? I've yet to see you rationally justify an overpay"

 

You are completely missing my point (on purpose, I think). It is possible that 1 or 2 extra wins over the last two months for the Brewers are more valuable than to another team. Hence, if Hart (just an example) were available it may be that ONLY the Brewers would be interested. I am not talking about giving up any prospect, but just relieving Seattle of some salary. Hence the Brewers, from their viewpoint, are paying what is value to them, but in the overall league scenario it is a $$$ overpay. I prefer to keep talent if a few extra dollars can get a guy for half a year.

 

A couple of fellow posters understood what I meant. The ones who don't understand are choosing not to understand. And I find it interesting that a fellow fan say 'if you cant convince me what you think, then you are irrational'. That is a sad state of affairs! I just posted what I think. And I think I have some good reason behind it. And I will not be beaten down because 'I cant convince anyone'. Geez

[monty57]

I'm not trying to beat you down. I'm just saying that overpaying for anything in life is generally a bad idea, because you are left with less value than you started out with.

 

I agree with you that if the Brewers are looking for an upgrade, a good outlet would be to find a high-priced player another team is trying to save a few bucks on. We should be able to get that player for almost nothing, just saving the other team a couple of million dollars. That's a tremendous way to underpay for a player :-)

[HiAndTight]

Every dollar spent matters so much more to a team like Milwaukee, the smallest market in the game, than it does the largest markets like NY. Every misspent dollar limits the ceiling of the team, are we really so desperate to prove the franchise is relevant that we need to keep overpaying for bad production from FAs? Overpaying for talent is the absolute worst way to operate a franchise regardless of sport, even in small doses. There is a better way than constantly trying to recycle someone else's castoffs into some useful every day player. It was necessary from 2003-2006 but we should be long past that philosophy by now... and before someone says it, Wang isn't a castoff, the Brewers astutely pilfered him from another organization, that's a completely different concept.

I don't agree with that as much as I used to. I don't think the money part is hurting us as much as the lack of talent. I would rather overpay in dollars a bit than in talent. I am not saying go out and win the market on the biggest names like Fielder or Greinke. I think you can get good midrange talent at a decent price. You absolutley have to acquire your top guys through means other than free agency. I wouldn't mind paying Hart this year but I absolutely do not want to give up any useful talent to get him.

 

 

I agree. And we may be the smallest market, but that doesn't mean we're the poorest team. Our fans spend more per person than any other fanbase in baseball, we get a lot of money from revenue sharing..and we don't have a trash owner like Loria who is happy to sit back and make 30 million dollars a year rather than even attempt to be competitive.

 

Paying more for Hart than we normally would makes more sense than dealing off a prospect.

[Bnowell4evr]

I definitely see the Brewers buying to bolster our offense. Whether that's through FA (Morales) or through the trade market is the question. Going by previous experience and how weak our minor league system (we don't want to give up much) I see us targeting a bunch of aging vets in the last year of the deal. I'm thinking we trade for players on losing teams that won't receive a qualifying offer so the teams they belong to will be happy to receive anything for their troubles. After a little searching I've come up with a couple ideas.

 

1. 1B/3B Eric Chavez - Chavez is on a 1 year contract and The D'Backs are 21-33 in dead last in the NL West. Obviously Chavez won't be commanding anywhere near a qualifying offer so the D'Backs would be wise to get anything of value for him. The good thing about Chavez is that he's versatile and his LH bat could spell either Reynolds or Ramirez. Chavez can't hit LHP worth a lick but is hitting .286/.355/.536/.891 vs RHP on the year.

 

2. OF Bobby Abreu - A blast from the past returned after a year of retirement on a year 1 contract with the Mets. He's worked his way up from the minors to the bench and now into a platoon role. He's been very productive so far while showing the patience that set him apart in the 2000's. Currently he has a .314/.405/.514/.919 line vs RHP so he would be a very nice insurance plan for Khris Davis if he should ever regress to his pre hot streak self. I can't imagine he'd cost much at all with the Mets being 24-28.

 

Going off trades from the past you could probably get them both for a deal similar to the Edmonds for Dickerson or Hairston for Komatsu trades we made. Obviously both these guys come with their risks but the rewards for how little we have to give up is intriguing (to me at least).

 

C Lucroy

1B Reynolds / Chavez

2B Gennett / Weeks

SS Segura

3B Ramirez / Chavez

LF Davis / Abreu

CF Gomez

RF Braun

 

C Maldonado 1B/3B Chavez 2B Weeks OF Abreu SS/CF Herrera

[KCBrewerfan34]

If the Brewers think they can get to the World Series they will add something more than Bobby Abreu, why do I keep coming back to Billy Butler

[phnxcrew]

If the Brewers think they can get to the World Series they will add something more than Bobby Abreu, why do I keep coming back to Billy Butler

 

If butler is available why wouldn't alex gordon be as well? I would much rather have him backing up three positions. Don't they have any OF's knocking in the door in case the royals start tanking?

[Bnowell4evr]

In 2011 the only trades the Brewers made toward the deadline were for K-Rod and JHJ. We don't have a disposable prospect like LaPorta so I don't see any high profile trades this year either.

[brewcrewdue80]

In 2011 the only trades the Brewers made toward the deadline were for K-Rod and JHJ. We don't have a disposable prospect like LaPorta so I don't see any high profile trades this year either.

 

Disposable prospects to have traded away could be:Taylor/Arcia/Roache/Coulter and Jungmann.

 

Now as fans following our team we are sick at the idea to trade away this future talent. Coulter and Jungmann seem the easiest to tab in trade due to their success thus far this season. Taylor/Arcia are projects with potential to pay bigger dividends if you take the chance on them at Prime (CF/SS) positions. With Roache I was wondering if his numbers were of Platoon usage but thus far he's doing better vs Righties than Lefties. He is having a respectable May thus far in 18games a .261/.292/.536/.828 line with 5HRs A trend in a better direction that continued in June in to July likely increases his trade warrants.

 

Who knows how the Draft board goes? We could select Max Pentecost a seemingly better overall Catcher prospect. Draft a Conforto/Zimmer OF Or a Chavis/Gatewood making any one of our OF/MI prospects expendable. We get Holmes/Touissaint, Jungmann is expendable.

 

I don't know overall how any of those names rank compared to our own current prospects but MLB has every one of the draft prospects an overall 55 rating while none of Milwaukee's prospects that are expendable are over a 50 overall rating. So it would seem whomever the Brewers take at 12 this year will immediately be the Team's #1 rated prospect.

 

Now I guess this is in response to any high profile trades meaning Sabathia like. Just remember LaPorta didn't pan out, Rob Bryson never made the Majors, Zach Jackson was terrible in his stint in the Majors. It was the PTBNL Michael Brantley who's provided any value in return to Cleveland in that trade. Laporta was a #30ish ranked prospect at the time. That's it. that's the only top 100 prospect involved in that trade.

 

Visiting Scouting Book current ranks are: Taylor #154, Roache #161, Jungmann #188 Arcia #268 Coulter #317.

 

Now, it's pretty safe to say there will be around 30-40 in the ranks graduating off Scouting Book by the Trade Deadline. Which makes Taylor/Roache/Jungmann near consideration around top 100. And Arcia/Coulter imo will climb here especially if the Brewers move them up a level. So, to me I see prospects that can be on another team's radar that could garner a decent Rental for the run. Certainly not Stanton ability but he's an elite guy where 20 of them exist. After those 20 you never know. You combine all three of Taylor,Roache,+Jungmann in a trade? You certainly have the means to attain the 2nd tier elite.

[TheCrew07]

Disposable prospects to have traded away could be:Taylor/Arcia/Roache/Coulter and Jungmann.

 

Disposable?

 

How exactly do you figure the Brewers resign Gomez given what he's done the last 2 years? Gomez' contract runs through 2016 and Taylor would potentially be ready to replace him in '17.

 

Coulter could be expendable if he's ultimately an OF, but if he's a C/3B/1B then why would we trade him away? Just because he's in A ball? Lucroy's deal is done for sure after 2017 so by 2018 if Coulter stays a C he should be ready for the big leagues. He could move as fast as hit bat would carry him elsewhere and there's no one of note ahead of Coulter at either corner IF position though I do like Denson.

 

Arcia's bat is too unknown yet for him to bring back any kind of return, he'll be ready for the 2017 or 18 season if his bat ascends enough.

 

Roache has huge power potential but also hasn't proven he'll hit enough, he's not LaPorta as a prospect.

 

Jungmann isn't Odorizzi, he doesn't have that kind of pitchability though they have similar stuff. I would trade Jungmann away but I question the return he would bring.

 

The main point here is that if you're looking to do a blockbuster type trade the Brewers don't have the ammunition to get it done. LaPorta was the #23 prospect in baseball when he was traded, Brett Lawrie was the #59, Alcides Escobar was the #12 prospect coming off his first full season in MLB, Lorenzo Cain had just outplayed Gomez and won the CF job in Milwaukee, and finally Jake Odorizzi was the #69 prospect. All of those guys except for Cain were the Brewers' top prospect at one point in time in a fairly highly rated farm system, and all of them except for Odorizzi had played above A+. In fact there were some scouts who thought that Odorizzi might be a Zach Greinke lite in 2010, he just never developed any plus secondary offerings but his pitchability has always been fantastic. Why would anyone give us anything of significant value for prospects in the bottom of the Brewer's top 10 which by the way is universally considered the 2nd to worst farm system in baseball coming into the year? And why on earth would we move Taylor or Coulter for the limited value they have right now? What's the urgency to procure a marginal upgrade with prospects? Why not just give Morris a shot over Overbay to see what he can do when that's a move which doesn't cost the Brewers anything.

 

From BA in 2010 when Odorizzi was the #1 Brewer prospect after Lawrie was dealt to Toronto:

Two scouts who saw Odorizzi pitch at Wisconsin described him as a lesser version of Zack Greinke. Odorizzi's excellent athleticism results in a clean delivery that he repeats easily, allowing him to fill the strike zone. He consistently commands a fastball that ranges from 89-95 mph and seems even quicker because he throws with such ease. He maintains his velocity deep into games, and his fastball also features good sinking and boring action that makes it difficult to lift. Odorizzi's fastball is so effective that he has been able to thrive without a secondary pitch that presently grades as plus. He's working on two different breaking balls. Scouts like his curveball better, saying it could develop into an above-average second pitch, and his slider is really more of a cutter. He shows some feel for a changeup, though he sometimes tips it off by slowing his arm speed.

 

How does Jungmann stack up to that as the current #6 Brewer prospect?

He seemed on the verge of living up to his $2.525 million signing bonus in the first half of 2013, when he limited hitters to a .204 average at Double-A Huntsville. But he wasn't as sharp after the break, struggling to a 5.91 ERA in nine outings. Jungmann's fastball hit 98 mph in college, but his game now is pounding a 90-92 mph sinker into the bottom of the strike zone and getting hitters to beat it into the ground. He uses his tall frame to pitch on a downhill plane and tries to get outs early in the count. He tied for second in the Southern League with 18 double plays. He has a sharp-breaking, 75-78 mph slider that is very effective against righthanders when he stays on top of it. Jungmann's fringe-average changeup can be effective if a bit firm. His command took a step backward in 2013, but scouts and the Brewers believe his delivery can be smoothed out to improve his strike-throwing capability. A groin strain ended Jungmann's Arizona Fall League stint after one start, short-circuiting his first attempt at improving his delivery. He'll head to Triple-A for 2014, likely projecting as a No. 4 starter, which would be good enough considering the difficulty the Brewers have had in developing starting pitchers.

 

As far your comments about the draft, I'll take a performing prospect over a draft pick 100 times out of 100. The current Brewers regime has yet to prove they can draft top prospects let alone impact big leaguers.

[brewcrewdue80]

Alright Crew, I didn't mean to attack our prospects that way by saying disposable like I would just dump in the trash.

 

My point was that if we were to make a trade in July this team does have prospects that some other teams would want. Our farm system isn't completely devoid of prospects that make us completely unable to make a trade come July. I thought that was what Bnowell was suggesting and I was just listing prospects that I believe are at our disposal to make a significant trade if Melvin&Co. wanted to work out one.

 

Suggesting the draft selection was also showing that Melvin&Co.'s mind could work in a manner to justify trading away any of my suggested disposable trade pieces.

 

Didn't have to write up that big to do about our team's mass overpay for Pitching in trades....We have pitching. The biggest need if reading through this thread was for an offensive upgrade, either for Davis, at 1b, and at 3b. Pitching like Grienke, like Garza last year they are what teams overpay in prospects for over and over. For the Brewers they have their starting 5 with #6 just roasting in AAA til a spot is opened for him. Since we have pitching covered, I don't expect the Brewers to need to use top 50prospects to make a significant trade. Since their significant trade will be for a position player. Alex Rios was a significant traded player last season and he's one having been mentioned to target. I'd certainly believe Jungmann could get Rios in an instant because Texas is so Pitcher starved.

I'll throw a name out there. Daniel Murphy. Does Murphy portend to be a player the Mets would require a top 50 prospect to get? If say 2 just past 100 prospects were offered in return? They're an OF hungry team and I'd imagine Taylor or Roache could land Murphy a LH hitting Utility 1b/2b with team control through 2015. Now to me Murphy would be a significant trade come July. The Brewers could send Gennett(Weeks?) and Taylor or Roache in the deal. Murphy takes over everyday 2b duties Replaces Overbay as the LH bat platoon at 1b(if we kept Gennett)

Getting Murphy and sending away one of Gennett or Weeks while disposing Overbay would open up another roster spot for either the Bullpen and/or a better offensive bench bat. Meanwhile you also have either your everyday 2b or 1b next season depending on if Gennett is included in trade. Oh, I didn't even consider Estrada as a potential pitcher to send the Mets way whom, as mentioned elsewhere would be a nice fit to pitch in the Mets Homepark. Could you part with Roache and Estrada for Murphy?

[JohnBriggs12]

Danny Murphy?? Really?? Murphy certainly isn't an upgrade over Gennett against RHP and besides, he's older, isn't great defensively and makes money that could be more wisely spent elsewhere. Murphy's one edge over Gennett is he's a better hitter vs. LHP, but with a predominantly right hand hitting lineup, I don't see that as making a difference.

[Never Outhustled]

2 more players who could be included in package deals are Fiers and Wang. Whoever we aquire a lefty bat from will likely be a re-building club. They seek cheap, controllable assets like Fiers, and have room for a project like Wang. Anyone who tells me Wang has no trade value better be of the stance that they're in favor of with dumping him from the roster, or they're being pypocritical. If he's worth carrying on a contender, then he must be a serious prospect who's extremely likely to earn his way back to the majors in the future and therefore has trade value.

 

Traded Wang as part of a deal to upgrade over Overbay could have a major impact on this team, as it allows for major upgrades at not one but 2 positions on this roster.

 

The real difficulty is finding a worthwhile lefty swinging bat to acquire. They just don't seem to exist right now, which is a shame. Normally this would be a very easy need to satisfy.

[ewitkows]

Problem is there are only 4 teams out of it at the moment. Cubs,Zona and Hou aren't going to trade their 1b. Which leaves TB at the moment. We need a few other teams to fade in the next couple of weeks

[reillymcshane]

At this point, the Brewers could easily make two moves:

 

1. Replace Overbay - he's bad. Reynolds isn't great, but he's passable. You don't need to replace Reynolds (although that's a possibility), just get a reasonable left handed bat for the occasional start at 1B. A guy who plays 3B as well would be great.

 

2. Add an infielder who can actually play well. Falu, Herrera, Bianchi. These guys are junk. A guy like Emilio Bonifacio would be perfect (assuming he can play SS). This guy needs to back up SS, back up 3B (A-Ram's recent injury is troublesome), and pinch hit. If he can play the OF, like Bonifacio, all the better.

 

The rest of our hitters are doing well (Braun, Gomez, Weeks/Scooter, Lucroy/Maldonado) or solid (Davis) or have a good shot at improving (Segura, Ramirez).

 

The pitching is fine. And if there are injuries or performance issues, there are multiple options in the minors to call upon.

[monty57]

1. Replace Overbay - he's bad. Reynolds isn't great, but he's passable. You don't need to replace Reynolds (although that's a possibility), just get a reasonable left handed bat for the occasional start at 1B. A guy who plays 3B as well would be great.

 

Boy would it be nice if Taylor Green were tearing it up in Nashville. Unfortunately, he's sporting a line of .248 avg / .305 OBP / .369 SLG / .674 OPS in 141 ABs.

 

I think Melvin took the adage "you can never have enough pitching" too literally over the past few years. We have a logjam of "MLB ready"starting pitchers, but no position players in the system who can even fill a bench role. Murphy's Law then kicks into effect and we have a healthy rotation and injuries all over the rest of the field.

[reillymcshane]

1. Replace Overbay - he's bad. Reynolds isn't great, but he's passable. You don't need to replace Reynolds (although that's a possibility), just get a reasonable left handed bat for the occasional start at 1B. A guy who plays 3B as well would be great.

 

Boy would it be nice if Taylor Green were tearing it up in Nashville. Unfortunately, he's sporting a line of .248 avg / .305 OBP / .369 SLG / .674 OPS in 141 ABs.

 

I think Melvin took the adage "you can never have enough pitching" too literally over the past few years. We have a logjam of "MLB ready"starting pitchers, but no position players in the system who can even fill a bench role. Murphy's Law then kicks into effect and we have a healthy rotation and injuries all over the rest of the field.

Totally agree. Green missed a golden opportunity. If he had been hitting, he could have been up here after A-Ram went on the DL. I thought the guy was going to be a big leaguer. At this point, he probably opts out of his contract and tries to find a team that will give him a real chance.

[Mays Hayes]

For those that missed the broadcast tonight, Brian Anderson said he spoke with Mark Attanasio and asked him how he felt about the way the season had gone thus far. Attanasio told him that he was "ALL IN" this year.

[brewmann04]

Interesting

[Outlander]

Never liked the phrase all in when it comes to managing a roster. If he really means all in then he is willing to trade whatever prospects are necessary to win now. Please don't trade Jimmy Nelson.

[Fear The Chorizo]

For those that missed the broadcast tonight, Brian Anderson said he spoke with Mark Attanasio and asked him how he felt about the way the season had gone thus far. Attanasio told him that he was "ALL IN" this year.

 

what the heck is he supposed to say? "Meh, we'll probably just regress to the mean and won't be contending by mid-August, so I'm going to watch Packers training camp practices instead"?

 

Far as I can tell an owner of a team is ALL IN constantly...after all, he does own the team.

[Mays Hayes]

For those that missed the broadcast tonight, Brian Anderson said he spoke with Mark Attanasio and asked him how he felt about the way the season had gone thus far. Attanasio told him that he was "ALL IN" this year.

 

what the heck is he supposed to say? "Meh, we'll probably just regress to the mean and won't be contending by mid-August, so I'm going to watch Packers training camp practices instead"?

 

Far as I can tell an owner of a team is ALL IN constantly...after all, he does own the team.

 

Well... he could've expressed his delight with the way the season has gone thus far about 5,000 other ways than using the phrase "ALL IN". Every fan, player, coach, and owner of a small market baseball team knows exactly what that phrase means.

 

Anyway, I was only repeating what was said on the broadcast, so read into it however you'd like.