Starting Pitcher Best Suited for an Elimination Playoff Game

[Eye Black]

Coming into tonight's game, the Brewers are five times through the rotation. Obviously the pitching all around has been very good in the first month of the season. My question is which Brewers starter would you be most confident in sending to the mound in a playoff elimination game this season (i.e. Wild Card game or Game 7 of the World Series)? All starters have looked solid to start this year, but none appears to be head-and-shoulders above the rest. I tend to lean toward trusting Lohse to give a great effort if the season were on the line, but he certainly isn't the most physically gifted of the group. Seems like a special intangible is required to give a great effort when everything is riding on it. Who would you be most confident in with the season in the balance?

 

Here is look at some of the rotation stats five games in (via Fangraphs):

http://i58.tinypic.com/jqq1q0.jpg

[jjkoestler]

Lohse would be my guy. Garza has better stuff, but he's incredibly emotional.

[Bombers]

Lohse would be my guy. Garza has better stuff, but he's incredibly emotional.

+1. Lohse would be my guy hands down. Honestly, based on the year he has, big Wily might be 2nd in line. He has nasty stuff.

[SRB]

[sarcasm]Jeff Suppan![/sarcasm]

 

I feel like Estrada would have the best composure, but since it's weird to pick your #5 I'd go with Garza. I think he can step up in those situations, and his career postseason stats are better than Lohse's. Lohse has quite a bit of experience though (13 G, 8 GS, 46.1 IP).

[dlk9s]

I'd give Lohse the crown with Yo next in line if Lohse is unable to fulfill his duties as my pitcher.

[SoupTown]

For sure Lohse. Or you could start Garza and you will know in the first inning if he is no hitter mood. If no, then Kyle.

 

Or you could bore them to death with Marco painting the outside edge of the black all night.

[RobDeer 45]

First of all, it's kind of amazing that we can have a debate like this, and really, all five starters are in the discussion. With out looking at any stats, I'd go with Lohse as well. He just seems like a gamer and doesn't seem like he would get rattled by a big game.

[Nottso]

[sarcasm]Jeff Suppan![/sarcasm]

 

I see torches and pitchforks in your immediate future.

[JackNicholson1974]

Lohse. 2004 jacknicholson1974 can't believe I just typed that.

[FVBrewerFan]

It would depend how they're pitching down the stretch run. I wouldn't rule out Yo, he has pitched very well in the playoffs. But if that game was today, yes Lohse.

[Warning Track Power]

Lohse...but I think Gallardo would get the ball given how he pitched in Game 1 and Game 5 of the NLDS versus Arizona.

 

My guess at what Roenicke would run out there in order is:

1. Gallardo

2. Lohse

3. Garza

4. Estrada

[djoctagone]

wild card game means the pitcher hits (ditto on final games of nlds and nlcs). game 7 of the world series means it could be the dh hitting. should we taking that into consideration as well?

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd piggy back Will Smith and Thornburg. Just go straight to the pen!

[HiAndTight]

It really depends on who we're facing. If we're facing the Dodgers, I actually might throw Peralta out there as he's the guy one most likely to completely shut down the other team and obviously you're not scoring much off Kershaw.

 

Key word might. I doubt I'd have the guts to.

Lohse...and then I really can't pick. There's not much of a difference between Gallardo, Garza, Peralta and even Estrada assuming all are healthy. You could almost pick a name out of a hat and be just as likely to get 7 shutout innings from one guy and 5 IP and 4 ER from another.

[trwi7]

An injured Shaun Marcum.

[brewcrewdue80]

Too early to really make this decision. Because as of today one has to say Lohse/Gallardo toss up.

But my guess is that Peralta just looking at his stats, will become the Horse we ride when the time comes. How do you go against the leading GB% guy while still posting a 7+k/9 pitcher? I'm going to think Peralta continues to improve as the season goes on like last year and he's up to 8k/9 with still under 2BB/9. The BABIP% will decrease as will the HR/FB % making his ERA continue to remain under 3 while effeciently working more 7IP or higher outings as the season wears on over any other member of the staff.

But today? You can't jump him over Gallardo or Lohse. It will be them at the end of the season as Peralta's star shines bright that pass the torch saying Wily is the biggest reason we're here. He's our man to win Game 7.....Yadda,yadda...we wouldn't even be in this position if I'd have pitched better in Games 1 or 2.

 

Just look at his numbers. And he should improve his K/9 rate. But that high GB and low Walk rate? You tell me how Wily doesn't just take over this staff as the #1 pitcher on the team. How Garza has a .5WAR to Wily's .1WAR at this point is beyond me? Are 4 more outs over 5 starts really worth that much in WAR even if it's at a higher ERA?

[HiAndTight]

Too early to really make this decision. Because as of today one has to say Lohse/Gallardo toss up.

But my guess is that Peralta just looking at his stats, will become the Horse we ride when the time comes. How do you go against the leading GB% guy while still posting a 7+k/9 pitcher? I'm going to think Peralta continues to improve as the season goes on like last year and he's up to 8k/9 with still under 2BB/9. The BABIP% will decrease as will the HR/FB % making his ERA continue to remain under 3 while effeciently working more 7IP or higher outings as the season wears on over any other member of the staff.

But today? You can't jump him over Gallardo or Lohse. It will be them at the end of the season as Peralta's star shines bright that pass the torch saying Wily is the biggest reason we're here. He's our man to win Game 7.....Yadda,yadda...we wouldn't even be in this position if I'd have pitched better in Games 1 or 2.

 

Just look at his numbers. And he should improve his K/9 rate. But that high GB and low Walk rate? You tell me how Wily doesn't just take over this staff as the #1 pitcher on the team. How Garza has a .5WAR to Wily's .1WAR at this point is beyond me? Are 4 more outs over 5 starts really worth that much in WAR even if it's at a higher ERA?

 

 

I wouldn't even concern yourself with WAR for a pitcher 4-5 starts into the year. But for the record I think Garza's actually had the 2nd best stuff and pitched the second best, but has gotten absolutely brutal defense behind him.

 

 

 

But I think you and I are pretty much thinking the same thing. Whoever we'd pick right now, if we really want a chance to win a playoff series(or 2 or 4) we're going to need Peralta to become a legit top of the rotation type starter.

 

But hey, the way seasons go, Thornburg might end up being the guy who gets the start like Wacha was for the Cards last year.

[HiAndTight]

An injured Shaun Marcum.

 

 

Not as dumb as it sounds.

 

Marcum comes out. Can't go. We go to the BP right away. Thornburg throws 4 shutout innings. Smith comes in and throws 3. Kintzler, Henderson to K-Rod.

 

BOOM...no hitter.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Probably Yo...but if we got Kotsay to come back and play CF, I'd feel about the same with any of them.

[HiAndTight]

Probably Yo...but if we got Kotsay to come back and play CF, I'd feel about the same with any of them.

 

 

I'd definitely want Peralta then in the hopes that he could either strike everyone out or get as many ground balls as possible so as to limit the potential for Kotsay to blow a game for us in CF.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

I'd go with Lohse. He seems like he'd be able to keep his emotions under control. Garza's got wicked good stuff, but he's got a temper. I could see the pressure getting to him and him snapping. Yo keeps his cool, but he nitpicks at the corners too much. Most umps hate that and call balls. Marco would be my 2nd choice. Cool, wily veteran....

 

Wily is too young for that big of a job. We'll have to wait and see how he does the rest of the year. Without a doubt K-Rod is who I call on in the 9th to seal the deal. That is the Brewers most clutch pitcher by a landslide.

[TheCrew07]

Wily is too young for that big of a job. We'll have to wait and see how he does the rest of the year. Without a doubt K-Rod is who I call on in the 9th to seal the deal. That is the Brewers most clutch pitcher by a landslide.

 

How does one get playoff experience if one isn't allowed to pitch? Gerrit Cole pitched very well for the Pirates last season as a rookie,he was only 22 years old, and had less experience at the time than Wily did.

 

[pre]Year Age Tm Series W-L% ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

2013 22 PIT NLDS .500 2.45 2 2 11.0 5 3 3 2 2 0 10 0.636 4.1 1.6 1.6 8.2 5.00

1 NLDS .500 2.45 2 2 11.0 5 3 3 2 2 0 10 0.636 4.1 1.6 1.6 8.2 5.00[/pre]

 

I'm not suggesting Cole and Peralta are similar pitchers but I am suggesting that maybe people should look at more than age and experience when it comes to these issues. None of us are close enough to the situation to be "in the know" if Peralta would ready or not. Instead of the default assumption of "no", how about we lean the other and trust that a pitcher will perform well regardless of age? Peralta is now 25, has well over a year in the big leagues with 42 starts, when would be the appropriate time to let him pitch a meaningful game?

 

To answer the question I wouldn't pitch anyone on short rest and would just be tempted to run with who's ever spot in the rotation came up. No one is going to give you a near complete game so we're going to rely on the bullpen regardless. If one of the starters isn't pitching well you could certainly adjust but I don't see any good reason to get carried away and try to "Sabathia" the situation, we just don't have that type of pitcher on the roster.