When is it Time to Give Ron Roenicke His Due?

[HiAndTight]

While I certainly have had my complaints about Ron Roenicke and his managing style, I have to give the man a lot of credit for what he has managed to do over the second half of last season and the first 20 games of this season.

 

After the disastrous May, the Brewers had a record of 32-49 after 81 games last season. They finished the second half of last year with a record of 42-39, with a ton of starts being given to Scooter, Davis, Schafer, Betancourt, Maldonado, Halton and Bianchi. With Braun's suspension, Weeks having season ending surgery, Hart out for the entire season and Ramirez in and out of the lineup, a record close to .500 while allowing the aforementioned Brewers to get their first whiffs of the Majors was an accomplishment.

 

Fast forward to 2014 where the Brewers have added Braun and Ramirez back to the lineup and added Garza and Reynolds from FA, the Brewers are off to the 15-5 start, brining the Crew's record to 57-44 over the past 101 games. Moreover, they have reshuffled the deck in the bullpen with K-Rod back into the closer role, Henderson working through his issues, Smith and Thornburg being new additions...

 

I just have to say that Roenicke has done a fantastic job navigating through all the issues this team has endured over the past 12 months. Does that mean we won't go through some down periods this season? No. Does this mean that he won't drive me nuts sometimes? No. It just means that given the circumstances surrounding this team with Braun; that the Brewers currently have 2 relatively unheralded prospects starting at 2B and LF who are developing; that the Brewers are developing Thornburg into what appears to be a bullpen ace...and numerous other things, that I think we should take a step back and give Roenicke some credit.

 

I've said several times that a fanbase almost always has a problem with it's manager. I recall hearing so many Cards fans bashing TLR for doing things like hitting the pitcher 8th or other unconventional things, Gardenhire for playing a boring style of baseball, Dusty Baker for..well...take your pick(mine incidentally would be complaining about walks and clogging up the base paths).

 

But I think ultimately the more a fan follows advanced metrics or things that would seem to make sense on paper but is unconventional(ie, when to pitch your closer/best reliever, hitting a guy like Braun 2nd, etc...) the more they're going to critique a manager because they don't follow what they believe is the best way to run a team. Obviously there are a lot of people on this board who subscribe to the "newage," metrics more than normal managers. Which is why I think he's been bashed a little bit on here. I've always maintained that managers make the same move 9 times out of 10 at least. If not more. I think if you brought in Yost, just in the moves he makes, they'd be VERY similar throughout the season with those of Roenicke and the same can be said of Macha.

 

That said, I think you're absolutely right in that Roenicke deserves a lot of credit. It SOUNDS like(emphasis on sounds like as I'm not in the clubhouse) that he really has his pulse on the team, he's great with the players, they respect him, he understands what it's like to struggle, and he is very positive when it comes to dealing with the players. And he stands up for them. I don't know how to quantify that in terms of wins and losses.

 

I also think that at least compared with the previous managers of the Brewers, he's been pretty popular on this board. Especially now. But of course when you're winning, you're going to get a longer leash from the fan base.

[HiAndTight]

I think he has learned a lot since his disasterous 2011. I still don't care for his logic in general, but he seems well liked by his players at this point.

 

In terms of giving him his due, I think that should be done somewhat independent of the team's record. He hasn't seemed to cost us any games so far this year. I'll take it after what I saw his first couple of years.

 

 

I know you were NOT a fan of Roenicke early on, and I was of the impression that he was just an average manager(I just said that I think managers are pretty much the same across the league save for a handful of moves).

 

But it has to be encouraging that he seems to be more proactive now and has learned from some of his mistakes. Usually I can play devils advocate because no matter how bad a move turns out, there is usually a sound reason for the manager making it. RR had one that was beyond even the most ardent attempts to do so. I think, "Mark Kotsay-Playoff start," sums that up well.

 

But he seems to have really learned his lesson, and I'd take it a step further and say not only has he not cost the team any wins this year, but I think moving K-Rod into the closers role over Henderson is one of those few moves that not many managers would make until Henderson had blown a couple early in the year. I liked the signing of K-Rod, but not for the reason Melvin gave which was basically he gives us another closer. I didn't like that move at the time(I still question it, but with the luxury of having Henderson who looks to have figured it out, Smith, Thornburg and Kintzler coming back, we can get through jams to get to the 9th inning pretty well and still have a guy who may not have great stuff, but who certainly doesn't tighten up in save situations.

 

But he's moved Segura down in the lineup. He's moved Gomez to the leadoff spot even though he's not a great fit for it. He's moved Gennett up in the lineup. He's kept Reynolds in rather than going with a straight platoon. ALMOST everything he's done with the pen has been brilliant. A lot of guys are getting a ton of appearances, but they're not throwing a lot of pitches and the matchup's have been great.

 

Using Thornburg in higher leverage situations has been a huge plus for us as he's been absolutely filthy as opposed to the role they envisioned for him as the long man/6th/7th inning type guy. Etc..etc..

 

 

 

I do agree that you should look at a manager's body of work independent of his record as it's been the players who've come through, but RR's decisions have been a bit unique as compared to what a "normal manager," would do, so I'm not ready to say that because of this great start he's been doing a great job just like I wasn't saying he was a terrible manager after his first two years(again, with the absolutely baffling Kotsay move). But looking closely, he does seem to be getting better and he also seems to be placing a bigger emphasis on winning early in the season.

[logan82]

As far as the aggresiveness goes, Topper has some nice stats in the IGT from yesterday. The Brewers are actually average in number of "outs on the basepaths." Yet they are at or near the top in taking extra bases per oppportunity. This tells me the aggressiveness IS paying off. RR can't control everything, like Davis running through a stop sign.

Not necessarily. Unless they are stealing home. The extra few bases probably don't outweigh the loss of the base runner especially with the lack of OBP with this team. The extra base may lead to some extra runs here and there but with the SLG and speed of this team they would probably score more suns without the extra bases.

[igor67]

It's a simple empirical question. If they are making as many outs as everyone else on the basepaths, but taking more extra bases that is a net gain. It's the same tradeoff as steals were the break even point is about 2/3, keeping in mind that the run environment has cratered the last 5 years that number has fallen from when everyone was hitting 50 HRs a season (it was closer to 70% then). It might violate perceptions, but it is working so far and RR deserves credit for that.

[logan82]

They are making more outs than a lot of other teams. They are middle of the pack in OBP but second in SLG. That means losing guys on the bases costs them more than the average team. Low run environments means those runs are even more valuable. If they had a low SLG the extra bases would mean more.

[jerichoholicninja]

I know Gomez gave him a lot of credit for letting him be him. He was the guy who let Gomez swing away instead of trying to take pitches and slap singles around so he could get on base. I think the thing RRR does best is understand just because a certain player has a certain skill set he may not have the mental makeup to maximize that skill set. Theoretically Gomez might be better if he did take more pitches and try to raise his OBP at the cost of SLG but in reality that didn't work. Gomez just isn't mentally built that way.

 

I thought that was Svuem.

[FVBrewerFan]

They are making more outs than a lot of other teams. They are middle of the pack in OBP but second in SLG. That means losing guys on the bases costs them more than the average team. Low run environments means those runs are even more valuable. If they had a low SLG the extra bases would mean more.

 

I know what you're getting at. But if a run is even more valuable, then doesn't it make sense to take an extra base when you're far more successful at it than the avg team?

 

Going 1st to 3rd more often, trying to score, it's more important for a low OBP to take those chances becaue the next guy up isn't as likely to get a hit right? Hi SLG teams are more hot and cold, so you need (within reason) to try to score when you can, take an extra base when you can.

[logan82]

No because that extra base doesn't help you score to many extra runs since the run was likely to score without the extra base. The loss of the base runner hurts more because you have fewer and that is one less PA.

[igor67]

Actually Low run environment means the opposite, essentially the lower the run environment the more important it becomes to do everything yourself to score because your teammates will just let you down. Anyway this is a fairly simple empirical question outs have a certain value as does the advancement (which is context dependent but is about a 2-1 ratio of value). Baseball Prospectus breaks it down that including all baserunning events the Brewers are currently -0.7 runs. They break it down into separate categories of stolen bases, advancing on hits, advancing on flyballs, and other. They are above average on the other category and are excelling on hits. They are slightly negative on stolen bases, but have been quite bad losing over 2 runs on flyball advancement. I'm not convinced there is a particular pattern there at this moment that supports any hypothesis.

[adambr2]

I'm okay with the small ball, I just wish he would be a little less predictable about it.

 

There's no longer any element of surprise to our squeeze/sac plays.

[HiAndTight]

I know Gomez gave him a lot of credit for letting him be him. He was the guy who let Gomez swing away instead of trying to take pitches and slap singles around so he could get on base. I think the thing RRR does best is understand just because a certain player has a certain skill set he may not have the mental makeup to maximize that skill set. Theoretically Gomez might be better if he did take more pitches and try to raise his OBP at the cost of SLG but in reality that didn't work. Gomez just isn't mentally built that way.

 

I thought that was Svuem.

 

 

That's been the story.

 

RR I think is all about Gomez being aggressive and attacking the ball and less worried about walks, but has worked with him on being more selective.

 

Personally...I think Gomez was just such an incredible talent that eventually he was going to be a star and...eventually happened.

[AdvantageSchneider]

The answer is when he stops asking guys to bunt who have absolutely no chance of getting the bunt down.

[MVP2110]

have to give him credit for finding ways to win with all these day to day injuries. Pen will eventually not need to be used so much but with so many close games not much he can do different.

[fondybrewfan]

RR has been about as good as possible in his bullpen management. However please stop having guys like Overbay, Davis, and Maldy try to bunt; they are just horrible.

 

Gotta give RR credit; not only keeping their heads above water through these injuries but actually winning game against good teams.

 

The Brewers have 1 road loss the entire month; crazy.

[gregmag]

I'm not as sure as some of you that trying to bunt with Overbay was stupid. Segrist, a LHP, was out there throwing 97. Overbay is generally helpless against lefties, while Reynolds, coming up behind him, gets paid to hit them. It's the 11th inning, so ordinary scruples about one-run strategies don't apply. RR played the percentages, and if his twilight-career platoon 1b can't get a bunt down, I'm not blaming the manager.

 

Having violated my deepest principles by praising a (failed) Ron Roenicke bunt attempt, I'll now violate them even more by praising a Ron Roenicke intentional walk. Having Smith walk Holliday with one out in the seventh after Craig's triple had tied the game took nerve, and it was exactly the right move in that situation. You want Smith to face Adams there.

 

Add me to the chorus of people who think RR is a pretty smart and thoughtful manager who has gotten better with experience. I'm still pretty critical of him at times, but I respect the work he's done to improve.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Lyle Overbay is a veteran with 5,547 plate appearances and 3 sac bunts, the last one coming in 2011. I gotta think he has better odds of pulling a ground ball to the right side than he does getting a sac bunt down.

 

And I agree with you generally, bunt the guy over to third late in the game, especially given our bullpen. But how many guys on the team do we have that can be trusted to get that bunt down? Segura, Scooter, Lucroy, gomez, probably Bianchi, Herrera and Schaefer.

 

The best managers put guys in a position to succeed. Asking Davis and Overbay to bunt is not putting them in the best position.

[SoupTown]

Burn three relievers with a 5 run lead? Having others warming up in the pen, as well.

 

Ron is playing every game like it is game 7 of the World Series. Good or bad. I am torn.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Burn three relievers with a 5 run lead? Having others warming up in the pen, as well.

 

Ron is playing every game like it is game 7 of the World Series. Good or bad. I am torn.

 

Good. The sooner we separate from the pack the better. It's inevitable.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm not a huge fan of Roenicke's in game decisions. He's not in Ned Yost's class but he's below average and it's not just the bunting obsession. He's a push button guy when it comes to the bullpen, and too often burns through a bullpen so that he's out of relievers by the 11th inning. Of course he's hamstrung with Wang on the roster. Roenicke gets high marks from me for the tone around the team.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

They have some off days coming up, maybe makes it easier to use a little extra pen. They've had some longer starts lately so probably not in bad shape.

[fondybrewfan]

I have no problems with bunting when you have guys that are actually capable of doing it. The pitching has been very strong for the most part and the offense has struggled. RR is just trying to manufacture runs any way he can because the way the pitching has gone you feel pretty good if you can get to 4 runs on most nights. Just don't have Overbay, Maldonado, and Davis bunt. One look and you can tell they suck at it. Just leave it to pitchers and guys like Gennett, Gomez, Schafer, and Segura who could all beat the throw with a good bunt anyways.

[RockCoCougars]

Based alone on his decision to shelve Henderson as closer, he's manager of the year to this point in my book. That decision probably added at least 2 or 3 wins. I think he's pushed almost all the correct buttons so far. I'm sure a big part of it is due to the good record, but I've only cursed at a few of his decisions thus far Also, I know a lot of people feel 'chemistry' is overrated, but he seems to be able to accomplish this every year, a complete 180 from Macha.

[SoupTown]

I will have to ignore the Brewers and Ron until I am calmed down - maybe a few days.

 

Ron's last presser where he said he could not use Smith (because he pitched him in the five run lead game) and he still trusts Kintzler and will use him as a 7th / 8th inning guy drove me nuts. Pretty much Ron mismanaged the pen costing us a game and said 'nothing else I could have done'.

 

Ron should have said: 'I was wrong to use Smith and cause him to be unavailable. And I will go the Hendy route with Kintzy and pitch him in the low leverage scenarios. I pretty much eff'ed up by using Smith in low leverage and Kintz in high leverage given their recent form. It did cost us a game, but we have learned from that and will do better going forward. And I know Kintzy will come back well. So after a couple low leverage ZEROs he will put up, he will be back to the 7th and 8th inning lead'.

 

WHY OH WHY would Ron not state the obvious or learn from a mistake.

 

I gotta avoid this for a few days or until a few wins show up. I can handle mistakes. Humans are humans. But for the human to then say 'I did not err, I did not learn, and I will do it again'. Then I need to walk away for a while.

[brewcrewdue80]

But Soup, admitting your failures, in RRR's case, puts the attention on him to just be on the hot seat and get fired in season. Nobody is going to be that way about admitting the job they have, they are making mistakes because then boom, next thing he knows he's fired.

[Dmiles23]

So BCD80, I don't understand your thinking at all. So you have Manager A who admits he mad a mistake, but does something different the next time he is in that same situation putting his team in a better chance to win. And you have Manager B who doesn't admit his mistake and keeps making the same mistake over and over, costing his team wins here and there. Doesn't winning games keep a manager off the hot seat?