ESPN Ranks Brewers #1 in Power Rankings....staff immediately says they don't belong

[Fear The Chorizo]

Even alot of the preseason prognosticators didn't know what to make of this year's Brewers - most of them hovered between 78-83 wins, all with the caveats of the team being better than that if Braun was the Braun of old post-suspension, injuries not gutting the MLB roster, and young guys proving their 2013's weren't flukes.

 

I think the one thing that's looking like a good bet is there are four teams in the division who have realistic playoff hopes, when before the season I think most people expected only three. If anything, Pittsburgh's start (performance and injuries) has dampened there playoff hopes moreso than the Brewers' hot start has amplified theirs. The Cards are still the class of the division, but I don't think they are as great a team as what hot stove assumptions made them out to be. The Cards have much more depth to whether adversity, whereas the Brewers can easily hit the skids if injuries/bounces start working against them.

 

On the bright side, remember that the Brewers' April schedule was viewed as a meat-grinder before Opening Day, and 22 games in the Brewers have the best record in baseball as they've played their way through it.

[logan82]

Pittsburgh outplayed their run differential by more than a couple wins last year. Their run differential was more like a low to mid 80's win team. Lose a couple pitchers and they may only be around .500 this year.

 

The Brewers still need most of their position players to stay healthy to compete. So far so good but we have more than a few players with injury concerns.

[HiAndTight]

ESPN and virtually every other website/network are paying people to be baseball experts (and all other pro sports for that matter). This gives them something to do to put on their site and get people to look at it. It's completely arbitrary and pointless but it does start a debate to some extent I guess.

 

That said...It's still cool to be #1 though.

 

 

 

I wonder if the ESPN execs just order them to do it now just so they can sit back and laugh at all the, "ESPN hates us," whining people in the comments section.

 

 

It's also just stupid, time and space filling fun. "Fun." Or at least mildly entertaining. I think every single fanbase thinks ESPN hates them(none more than the Braves though).

[endaround]

I mean even if this early stretch is "luck" and they go .500 the rest of the way they still end up at about 86 wins. So at this point, you sort of have to think of the Brewers as a mid 80s - low 90 win type of team.

 

I have an accountant friend who used the "if they only play .500 ball" logic back in what was is 2006 or '07 when they started out really hot. I kept telling him that teams have hot and cold streaks. I figured they were around a .500 team, and a hot start doesn't change that... it really only makes it more likely that they'll trade for a player mid-season rather than trading away players. Because he started thinking playoffs early in the season, he got really mad when the team played under .500 ball the rest of the way and missed the playoffs.

 

I feel the same about this year's team. I felt before the season that if everyone stays healthy and some things fall their way, they could fight for a Wild Card spot. I still feel the same way. They will have some losing streaks that will even out this hot start, and at the end of the year if they continue to stay healthy and the very young and very old players don't wear down as the season progresses, they will probably be in the Wild Card race. The one outlier is whether this hot start means they will trade away some of their few decent prospects for a rental player.

 

I guess I'm just saying to enjoy the team and the success they're having, but don't get too high on the good times, as it can lead to frustration (borderline depression) when they have their inevitable cold streaks.

 

Your friend was right. You are falling prey to the gambler's fallacy. Its the idea that after an event a random occurance has to lean the other direction to make up for it.

 

For example, if you have a fair coin (that you know is fair) and you are going to flip it 10 times. You expect to get 5 heads and 5 tails. You then flip 5 heads in a row. The gambler's fallacy says the next flip is likely to be tails to even things out so you get 5 tails. But it isn't more likely to be tails, the probability hasn't changed: 1/2 heads, 1/2 tails.

 

So that said, if you expected the Brewers to be a .500 team coming into the year, after the start there is no reason to expect the Brewers to be a below .500 over the remaining games. You may say that the start doesn't change your opinion of the Brewers, but that means you should expect them to win 50% of theri remaining games, not less.

[HiAndTight]

I mean even if this early stretch is "luck" and they go .500 the rest of the way they still end up at about 86 wins. So at this point, you sort of have to think of the Brewers as a mid 80s - low 90 win type of team.

 

I have an accountant friend who used the "if they only play .500 ball" logic back in what was is 2006 or '07 when they started out really hot. I kept telling him that teams have hot and cold streaks. I figured they were around a .500 team, and a hot start doesn't change that... it really only makes it more likely that they'll trade for a player mid-season rather than trading away players. Because he started thinking playoffs early in the season, he got really mad when the team played under .500 ball the rest of the way and missed the playoffs.

 

I feel the same about this year's team. I felt before the season that if everyone stays healthy and some things fall their way, they could fight for a Wild Card spot. I still feel the same way. They will have some losing streaks that will even out this hot start, and at the end of the year if they continue to stay healthy and the very young and very old players don't wear down as the season progresses, they will probably be in the Wild Card race. The one outlier is whether this hot start means they will trade away some of their few decent prospects for a rental player.

 

I guess I'm just saying to enjoy the team and the success they're having, but don't get too high on the good times, as it can lead to frustration (borderline depression) when they have their inevitable cold streaks.

 

Your friend was right. You are falling prey to the gambler's fallacy. Its the idea that after an event a random occurance has to lean the other direction to make up for it.

 

For example, if you have a fair coin (that you know is fair) and you are going to flip it 10 times. You expect to get 5 heads and 5 tails. You then flip 5 heads in a row. The gambler's fallacy says the next flip is likely to be tails to even things out so you get 5 tails. But it isn't more likely to be tails, the probability hasn't changed: 1/2 heads, 1/2 tails.

 

So that said, if you expected the Brewers to be a .500 team coming into the year, after the start there is no reason to expect the Brewers to be a below .500 over the remaining games. You may say that the start doesn't change your opinion of the Brewers, but that means you should expect them to win 50% of theri remaining games, not less.

 

 

 

I don't think he's falling prey to any fallacy here. You're trying to equate pure chance(ie, the flipping of a coin and statistical probability) with the collective performances of 25 individuals through ebbs and flows of a 162 game season. This isn't about statistical probability, this is about an opinion of a baseball team's big picture ability.

 

I hoped the Brewers would contend for a WC spot, but I'm still hardly convinced. They've played well so far, but if I believed they were a .500 team, I don't see how that would mean I SHOULD think that they'll be a .500 team from here on out. This isn't pure chance. Unless Monty's opinion has changed based on the performances he's seen from the players on the field, ie, Thornburg, Gomez, Aram's start, K-rod, then his opinion of them being a .500 team would be valid and would then include a regression to the mean, meaning they'd likely have a month in which they'd played equally poor as compared to a month in which they played as well as they have in April.

[igor67]

That is not how regression to the mean works. Regression to the mean very clearly pulls all teams towards a .500 record regardless of perceived talent. That they don't all end up there is because it is not a random system. It is possible that there are some factors that the Brewers have gotten lucky with so far that might show a tendency to truly correct (meaning good luck now requires bad luck later), I know of no such factors, nor any evidence for such a thing. Which means that you would expect the Brewers record the rest of the season to be whatever you thought originally plus the actual good start.

[topper09er]

I mean even if this early stretch is "luck" and they go .500 the rest of the way they still end up at about 86 wins. So at this point, you sort of have to think of the Brewers as a mid 80s - low 90 win type of team.

 

I have an accountant friend who used the "if they only play .500 ball" logic back in what was is 2006 or '07 when they started out really hot. I kept telling him that teams have hot and cold streaks. I figured they were around a .500 team, and a hot start doesn't change that... it really only makes it more likely that they'll trade for a player mid-season rather than trading away players. Because he started thinking playoffs early in the season, he got really mad when the team played under .500 ball the rest of the way and missed the playoffs.

 

I feel the same about this year's team. I felt before the season that if everyone stays healthy and some things fall their way, they could fight for a Wild Card spot. I still feel the same way. They will have some losing streaks that will even out this hot start, and at the end of the year if they continue to stay healthy and the very young and very old players don't wear down as the season progresses, they will probably be in the Wild Card race. The one outlier is whether this hot start means they will trade away some of their few decent prospects for a rental player.

 

I guess I'm just saying to enjoy the team and the success they're having, but don't get too high on the good times, as it can lead to frustration (borderline depression) when they have their inevitable cold streaks.

 

Your friend was right. You are falling prey to the gambler's fallacy. Its the idea that after an event a random occurance has to lean the other direction to make up for it.

 

For example, if you have a fair coin (that you know is fair) and you are going to flip it 10 times. You expect to get 5 heads and 5 tails. You then flip 5 heads in a row. The gambler's fallacy says the next flip is likely to be tails to even things out so you get 5 tails. But it isn't more likely to be tails, the probability hasn't changed: 1/2 heads, 1/2 tails.

 

So that said, if you expected the Brewers to be a .500 team coming into the year, after the start there is no reason to expect the Brewers to be a below .500 over the remaining games. You may say that the start doesn't change your opinion of the Brewers, but that means you should expect them to win 50% of theri remaining games, not less.

 

The gambler's fallacy only applies to independent events, that is to say each event does not affect the others. This is true with flipping coins, but I would think not in baseball.

[JohnBriggs12]

Steve Blass said this about the Brewers last weekend and I'm paraphrasing: "They might be surprising the national pundits, but believe me within the division we all knew what a healthy Brewer team was capable of so I'm not surprised at all"

 

The "national" pundits at ESPN and MLB Network focus 75% of their attention on the NL East. The Cardinals are the safe pick every year the NL Central and that allows those guys to pretty much ignore everyone else within the division.

[monty57]

All I was saying is that teams have ups and downs. Players have hot streaks and cold streaks. Pretty much every pitcher who has donned a Brewer jersey this season has been unbelievably hot. That will change, and when it does, we will have cold streaks. At the end of the year, the hot and cold streaks will even out to the overall talent level of the team, mixed in with some degree of "luck" (staying injury free, winning an inordinate amount of one-run games, getting more "clutch" plays than your opponents, etc).

 

The only things that have really changed for me are that:

 

(1) Neither Ramirez nor Lohse is showing signs of age regression. Hopefully this will last through the grueling 162-game schedule, as they are key factors to our success.

 

(2) Gallardo is pitching well, making last year seem like it could have been a WBC-induced fluke.

 

(3) The odds of trading for a mid-season player have gone up, while the odds of trading away a player have gone down.

 

(4) We haven't seen any real injuries, and every injury-free day that goes by is a good thing.

 

Those are important factors, but other than that, I believe that at the end of the year, players will end up somewhere around their "expected" level of performance. Since we have more players playing above their "expected" level than we have playing below their "expected" level, then that means we'll slow down a bit. How much, I don't know... this isn't math or science, it's baseball.

 

I also just wanted to warn that hot starts seem to have the effect of getting some people (like my aforementioned friend) so assured of playoffs that when the team doesn't make the playoffs, they take it very hard, which can't be healthy. Just enjoy the team while it's "sunny" and understand that there will be some "rain." Hopefully the hot play lasts at least through the weekend, as I really want to see the Brewers sweep the Cubs :-)

[pretendastronaut]

Buster Olney has a tweet this morning about the rankings. I'm not sure if these are only his votes in the rankings, or this week's final rankings, but here's what he has:

 

This week's power rankings: 1. Atlanta 2. Milwaukee 3. Oakland 4. SF 5. Texas 6. Dodgers 7. Yankees 8. WAS 9. Detroit 10. BAL.

 

With the way Atlanta has been pitching, I can't find fault with ranking them ahead of the Crew personally.

[adamb100]

Atlanta also took a series from us. They should be #1.

[igor67]

Again there is a huge difference between the idea of the luck evening out (i.e. the karma model) and the idea that the team will not be insanely hot forever. The team will cool off and you would expect them to play at about their projected talent level ( a little over .500). You do not expect them to crater with a horrible month to get back to .500. Last years Pirates (and many other teams) are good examples of this they got hot early, and rode that out for the remainder of the year. Which is why the projections had them pegged as about a .500 team just like us. So far they have played about like that (though somewhat worse). Normally a month in the differences in this would be largely academic, but the Brewers start has been so good (see the article in the other thread about how the vast majority of teams that started as well made the playoffs) that the correct view is to expect them to hover a little over 500 the rest of the year and finish with about 90 wins, whereas the other view still expects 82-83 wins

[adambr2]

Atlanta also took a series from us. They should be #1.

 

And the Mets took a series from them in Atlanta.

 

You can do the "who beat who" game all day. We're 18-6 against tough competition, best record in the league, so there really shouldn't be an argument against us.

 

Although 1) I wouldn't argue AGAINST Atlanta either, just saying there's nothing wrong with us being there, and 2) It really doesn't matter.

[SRB]

All I was saying is that teams have ups and downs. Players have hot streaks and cold streaks. Pretty much every pitcher who has donned a Brewer jersey this season has been unbelievably hot. That will change, and when it does, we will have cold streaks. At the end of the year, the hot and cold streaks will even out to the overall talent level of the team, mixed in with some degree of "luck" (staying injury free, winning an inordinate amount of one-run games, getting more "clutch" plays than your opponents, etc).

 

The only things that have really changed for me are that:

 

(1) Neither Ramirez nor Lohse is showing signs of age regression. Hopefully this will last through the grueling 162-game schedule, as they are key factors to our success.

 

(2) Gallardo is pitching well, making last year seem like it could have been a WBC-induced fluke.

 

(3) The odds of trading for a mid-season player have gone up, while the odds of trading away a player have gone down.

 

(4) We haven't seen any real injuries, and every injury-free day that goes by is a good thing.

 

Those are important factors, but other than that, I believe that at the end of the year, players will end up somewhere around their "expected" level of performance. Since we have more players playing above their "expected" level than we have playing below their "expected" level, then that means we'll slow down a bit. How much, I don't know... this isn't math or science, it's baseball.

 

I also just wanted to warn that hot starts seem to have the effect of getting some people (like my aforementioned friend) so assured of playoffs that when the team doesn't make the playoffs, they take it very hard, which can't be healthy. Just enjoy the team while it's "sunny" and understand that there will be some "rain." Hopefully the hot play lasts at least through the weekend, as I really want to see the Brewers sweep the Cubs :-)

 

I think you're still buying into a fallacy though. There are definitely going to be cold streaks on the horizon, but there's no reason to think that future cold streaks will conspire to exactly counteract the Brewers hot start.

 

If you think that the "true talent level" of the 2014 Brewers is a .500 W% team (or whatever), the only reasonable expectation is that they will now finish the season 87-75, rather than that they will endure a cold streak at some point and end up finishing 81-81 as you would have expected in the preseason.

 

Obviously you're right that nothing is predetermined in April though, which is part of what makes baseball such a great sport. I think it's fine to optimistically point out that the Brewers "only" need to go .500 (or so) to hit 87 wins, but it's just as likely they collapse like in 2007 or that they have another unbelievable hot streak and finish with 97 wins. Nobody knows right now, but we're definitely in a much better position than we were preseason, expectations wise.