Was Suppan the wrong choice?

[gregmag]

I don't buy the "playoff experience / intangibles" argument for Suppan or anyone else. People always say it, but nobody has ever proved it makes any difference. Maybe it does, but until you can quantify it, you don't pay for it.

 

The point X made about Suppan's first half / second half splits is very encouraging. Cutting against that, however, is the simple fact that Suppan is an aging pitcher who doesn't throw hard and has trouble finishing hitters. There's a nontrivial chance that he could be absolute dog meat by the end of his contract.

 

That said, one thing that I think causes a lot of us to undervalue the Suppan signing is the freakishly good health the Brewers' starters have enjoyed this year. Part of the reason the team laid out the big bucks for Suppan is that he stays healthy, and with the injuries pitchers get, you really need six or seven starting options.

 

That brings us to Gallardo and Villanueva. Gallardo couldn't be part of the Brewers' rotation this year because he hasn't built up to that kind of workload. Villanueva could, but take him out of the bullpen and you have trouble there. Also, I don't blame the organization for not trusting Villy to start coming into this season. His peripherals hadn't been great, and his walk total in his tryout last year was over (under, I guess) his head. He has had a breakout season, but what he's doing now wasn't predictable. So if you take those two guys out of the mix, your starting depth is in Zach Jackson territory. I think that's what led the Brewers to put their chips on Suppan.

 

I do worry about where the money for our other, better guys will come from. If we have to let a star go in a year or two so that Suppan can keep putting up a 5.50 ERA (if that's how he goes), then the signing will look bad. I hope the organization did the math on guys' free agency and arby timelines; presumably someone gets paid to do that. For right now, the signing looks so-so, but it will look a lot better if/when a starter (other than Suppan) goes down for an extended period.

 

Greg.

[Braminano]

One of his intangibles is that he has provided speaking points for the gentleman who spouts over by the bridge in general parking.

[Big Reed]

You also forget, we could have spent a ton of money to sign Zito or could have taken a flyer on Weaver.

 

Suppan is doing exactly what the Brewers thought he would do. They didn't really overpay to sign him. Suppan was never viewed to be the brewers' ace or #2 pitcher. He was supposed to be a #3 or #4 rotation filler and allow guys like Yo and Charlie the opportunity to advance into the starting rotation gradually. Yo would have burned out in August if he had started in our rotation in April. At the begining of the season most people expected both Capuano and Bush to be a lot better than Suppan. I hate to point this out, but the brewers wouldn't be in first without Suppan's pitching.

 

another thing to think about- the brewers were not close to signing any other quality veteran free agent pitcher this Winter.

[AdvantageSchneider]

That's fine for 1 year, but doesn't he effectively block Yo or Villy next year from entering the starting rotation. Unless they trade either Bush or Vargas, and frankly I'd rather have either of those two guys than Suppan right now. Suppan is our #5 starter in my mind.

[Ennder]

I'd rather have Suppan than Vargas, but Bush is our #2 starter with cappy's injury issues in my opinion.

[TheCrew07]

Of the free agents available when the Brewers picked him up, he's the best choice. Has been worth his contract? That's open to debate in my opinion.

 

The last 2 years he's been much better in the second half, I hope that trend continues. If he is, then he's worth every penny. The problem becomes '08 and '09 because the pitchers coming behind him in Yo, Villy, maybe Parra, maybe Inman could very well all turn out to be better than Jeff. What do you do with him then, doesn't he have a no trade clause? I can't see them putting him in the bullpen at that price tag. Even if Sheets isn't resigned for '09, there's still a very real possibility that he'd be the 7th best starter on the staff if the young kids pan out.

[Ennder]

I'd argue that Lilly has been the best of the FA pitchers this year when you take contract into account. Of course Lilly has an extensive injury history so its harder to put a value on him.

 

Suppan has basically done exactly what was expected, his ERA is just higher than it should be because of a low LOB% and a slightly elevated BABIP. All of the stats he controls are right around his 3 year averages so he hasn't pitched poorly at all... at least not poorly compared to normal. This is just case #1000 where ERA doesn't tell the real picture.

[aracko]

Soup's true value will lie down the stretch when we can count on him to be out there every 5 days and giving us 6 - 7 innings per start. His true value will be shown when his taking the ball in that first playoff series gives the 8 men behind him superior confidence.

 

Suppan is 11th in the National League in Innings pitched. Thats a big stat to me that gains value as the season progresses.

[danzig6767]

I'd just like to add that Suppan had a 5.83 ERA before the breal last year, and a 2.39 ERA after the break last year.

 

 

I sure hope that trend continues from his last few seasons because his he's pitched like crap since the end of April.I know he doesn't throw hard and is a command guy,but i don't care what any stat tries saying that he could be another "bad luck victim" because to many of his pitches are simply splitting the center of home plate.

 

Hopefully he's one of those guys that generally needs to log innings before he gets consistant command and that's why the big splits after the break.If Suppan doesn't and Capuano follows his second half struggles trend,that spells big trouble given i'm not expecting much from Vargas either.

 

I remember before the year that most figured the rotation would be the big strength and the bigger worry was if the offense had enough power.Now here we are with a rotation that's been pretty crappy for awhile besides Sheets and an offense leading the NL in slugging.

[endaround]

Yes the past two season Suppan was better after the All Star Break. Of course in 2003 and 2004 he was worse after the break.

[pack2364]

The Brewers paid what the market dictated at the time for a pitcher who "ate alot of innings". Suppan never had a stellar win-loss record in the first place. The Brewers went in search of a starting picher who colud help out in case of the disaster that occured last year when Sheets and Ohka went down. The Brewers knew exactly what they were getting when they signed Suppan............a "workhorse" who most likely will finish somewhere in the area of a 14-12 W/L record.

[bucksman4]

Soup is one of those pitchers I have scratched my head at as an opposing team's fan over the last few seasons. It seemed like every time I saw his name in the pitching matchups, I really didn't take him seriously. His record always seemed inflated because of the likes of Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen knocking in runs left and right for him. His less than stellar 'stuff' always made me think the Brewers would be able to crush him. We all know that was not the case...especially at Miller Park.

 

I think he's pitching pretty much at my expectations. I didn't expect a savior because, quite frankly, he's never been dominant by any stretch of the imagination. He is solid, though. We know we're going to get a .500 pitcher at least. For the contract they gave him, I'm sorry but .500 and "solid" isn't enough to cut it for me.

[xisxisxis]

Suppan wasn't signed for his ERA, he was signed for his health, so I fail to see what the point is. Nobody thought he'd have an elite ERA.

 

Of course he wasn't signed for his ERA, he was signed for his BB/9IP , K/9IP, and OPS against stats.....

 

 

Was Suppan the wrong choice?

 

Depends if his salary will make it impossible for the Brewers to retain really good players who deserve that kind of money. If Attanasio is willing to take the loss on Suppan's salary in a few years then there's no problem and the Suppan signing is fine, if not then bend over and grab your ankles brewers fans.

 

You always have to wonder why the Cradinals, in this case, didn't think he was worth all the extra dollars.

 

The Cardinals also thought a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes, Adam Wainright, and Braden Looper with the return of Mark Mulder near mid-season was befiting a World Series Champion defending their crown. So the Cards make their share of mistakes. Maybe Duncan was just tired of watching Soupcan pitch. Jeff has to be one of the few pitchers who can have a no-hitter after 3 innings and pitch like crap.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

Baseball Prospectus (I think) noted at the time of the signing that Suppan, with a high GB/FB ratio, benefited quite a bit from the Cardinals' infield defense and that it was unlikely that he was going to match his Cardinal numbers with the Brewers behind him.

 

I think the team valued his health, personality and postseason experience more than any production they expected to get.

[Ennder]

Quote:

---

Of course he wasn't signed for his ERA, he was signed for his BB/9IP , K/9IP, and OPS against stats.....

---

 

And I'm the one that is warned for baiting by saying I don't appreciate posts like this? There really is no call for that especially since it just shows you don't understand the point I was making.

[hauser42]

Suppan is doing what he was signed for. Eat innings and provide the team a chance to win most of the times he starts.

 

Now if you thought he was going to come in here and be a CY young candidate than that is misguided on your behalf.

[Bucky Rules]

Quote:

---

Baseball Prospectus (I think) noted at the time of the signing that Suppan, with a high GB/FB ratio, benefited quite a bit from the Cardinals' infield defense and that it was unlikely that he was going to match his Cardinal numbers with the Brewers behind him.

---

 

I know it's easy to say that our infield sucks defensively, but are there actually range metrics that support that argument? I watch the team and I feel like they've got decent range as a group. Yes... they make some errors, but that's not going to directly hurt a pitcher's numbers (ERA). I just think it might be blown out of proportion a bit.

 

But... I'm sure it won't take somebody long to prove me wrong. (or to mention the 137 indirect affects of an error)

[Ennder]

Thehardballtimes system lists us as below average range as an IF but its not the best system out there (the good systems aren't free to fans unfortunately).

 

I'd say at best we are average and those cardinal defenses really were good. Eckstein is above average though not as good as many think, Rolen and Pujols are both legit gold glovers at their positions.

[rluzinski]

Actually, MGl released his UZR stat and the end of May:

 

LINK

Unfortunately, a couple months of defensive data is much too small a sample to answer the question, "how good IS defender "X"". It can only answer, "how good was defender "X" for the first 2 months".

 

Counsell was great.

Graffy and Hardy were good.

Fielder and Weeks were bad.

 

Here are the results from 2003 - 2007:

 

LINK

 

Dewan will have his "Fielding Bible" book available this off season. His +/- system uses a similar system.

[lumberrule]

Not sure if this has been brought up or not, but you gotta remember too that some of Suppan's numbers are skewed by the three interleague starts he made, something that is not uncommon among NL pitchers making starts against AL clubs that sport a DH.

 

If you take out Suppan's three starts against AL teams, his season line reads like this:

 

7-7, 4.18 ERA, 101 IP, 109 H, 34 BB, 53 K, 1.41 WHIP

 

While the WHIP is still a little higher than you would like, those numbers are suddenly tons more acceptable.

 

Much like Dave Bush, whose overall numbers got totally skewed by one 6-run inning, Suppan's season numbers really got out of whack during that three-start interleague stretch.

[danzig6767]

Much like Dave Bush, whose overall numbers got totally skewed by one 6-run inning, Suppan's season numbers really got out of whack during that three-start interleague stretch.

 

You can't cherry pick starts or pull out a bad inning and say without that so and so pitcher would then have this lower ERA instead.

 

Look through the game logs of most starting pitchers over a season or even half a season and you usually will find a terrible start that inflates their ERA.If you pull that bad start out or a few bad starts out for all,you lower the ERA for every starting pitcher in the game.

[lumberrule]

You can't cherry pick starts or pull out a bad inning and say without that so and so pitcher would then have this lower ERA instead.

 

Look through the game logs of most starting pitchers over a season or even half a season and you usually will find a terrible start that inflates their ERA.If you pull that bad start out or a few bad starts out for all,you lower the ERA for every starting pitcher in the game.

 

I understand your point...all I was trying to say is that Suppan has a 4-ish ERA against National League competition, which is who he is going to make all but three of his starts against this season.

 

The bottom line is this...you cant label Suppan a bust halfway into his first season of a four-year contract, just like you can't label Carlos V as a future ace because of 60 solid innings out of the bullpen.

[danzig6767]

I understand your point...all I was trying to say is that Suppan has a 4-ish ERA against National League competition, which is who he is going to make all but three of his starts against this season.

 

One was vs a bad KC team at home with no DH,one was vs the Twins where he was flat out terrible regardless of the DH,and the other was at Detroit where he had a decent start given they have a great offense.Having to face a DH 6-7 times over three games isn't a worthy excuse for giving up 18 runs in 16 innings.

 

As for labeling him a bust,i at least haven't done that.My only thought on Suppan is that so far,he hasn't pitched as well as i hoped for.He very well could repeat his past history and have a good second half.

[robfuhr]

If Suppan can go 13-13 this year...and continue to eat innings, he will be exactly what the Brewers needed.

 

They needed him to take his turn every 5th day...win half the games he pitches and allow the younger pitchers to develop (gallardo and Villanueva) without throwing them into the starting rotation.

 

Had we not signed Suppan, Villanueva may have become a starter...he may have been successful, but he also may have been above average, but asked to pitch an extra inning here, an extra inning there to save the bullpen and it might have regressed his progression...Having a guy like Suppan in the rotation helps the bullpen as you can leave him in to take a beating when he doesn't have it and you don;t have to worry about it affecting his future career annd psyche for the next game.

 

I am glad we have Suppan on this team and will be happy if the Brewers go 17-17 in his starts...That will be just what this team needed when they signed him....

[Nearsighted Views]

He's made 19 starts in 2007. All but 6 have been less than 6 full and 1 less than 5. Granted, 4 of his last 5 have been less than 6 but you can't think this will continue. And outside of his blowup in Minnesota, he's given up no more than 4 ER in a game save for 1 5 ER outing..

 

So, in conclusion, you're getting a guy who is eating innings and giving a high powered offense a chance to win. He's flat out sucked lately but I think pitchers are allowed to slump. I've maintained that he's been "as advertised" up to this point.

 

I'm just not ready to don Gallardo and Villy the next greatest starters because they simply haven't done it. Jeff allows you the ability to develop guys without pressure while stabilizing the back end of your rotation.