Was Suppan the wrong choice?

[Hammer]

How long do we have to wait for the "small sample" excuse to become nil? Suppan has really not done much to earn his big contract and it is becoming evident to even the most casual fan that he is not going to make it through 6 innings in his starts. I like the fact that he has playoff experience but he really has become a weak link in the rotation this season...

[MoneyballMan]

I could not have said it better myself and was just waiting for some discussion on this topic. He's obviously not going to lose his spot in the rotation given his contract, but I'd have to say that Villanueva or Gallardo would probably look better in that spot right now than Suppan. And if he keeps pitching like this, that's a heck of a lot of contract to carry for three more years.

 

Let's hope he turns it around here soon.

[litesrn]

What, a thread about starters that isn't about Bush or Vargas? (This was supposed to be blue, BTW)

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Perhaps Suppan was the wrong choice. But if I recall correctly, the big three free agent pitcher signings were: a) Jason Schmidt; b) Gil Meche; c) Jeff Suppan.

 

Out of the three, I 'd think that Suppan was the reasonable option. Thankfully, we did not sign Schmidt, as we see his season-ending injury. Meche has been a better-than-average pitcher for Kansas City, but is making $7.4 million this year. Attanasio might have opened the purse, but I doubt Meche's contract would have been feasible. Although, in hindsight, if it would have been possible, then it's too bad Meche isn't wearing Brewer blue.

 

Suppan seemed like a rotation stabilizer, which is what we wanted. In no way am I defending his performance, but if you had asked me this winter whether to sign Suppan, I would have said yes. His inability to give "quality starts" is definitely troubling, and it certainly warrants a drop in the rotation.

 

Perhaps, again in hindsight, the best move would have been to roll the dice with Villaneuva as a #4 starter behind Bush and ahead of Vargas, and the subsequent promotion of Gallardo. Maybe a reliever could also have been signed. But I doubt any of us would have expected Suppan's lack of performance at this point; and the lack of Villaneuva as a dependable arm from the pen would make this season even more unnerving.

[pitchleague]

speaking of Gallardo, is he even still on the team? He hasn't pitched since Friday, the team has 2 games til the break, and Yost let's Suppan go 2 batters too long in the 5th, presumably to save the bullpen or something. If they have 2 long relievers (Gallardo and Villanueva) why not get one of them in earlier when it was fairly obvious that Suppan had lost his command.

 

sorry for the vent, but I saw a Gallardo connection made a few posts up where in the vent thread, I'd have to make a new "topic" inside of it. Thought this fit better here.

[dogs with bees in their mo]

His production so far is only marginally worse than his career numbers. Hopefully Attanasio learned a lesson by throwing his money away on this guy because of a bunch of cliché crap people said about him and his contract won't stop us from paying a better player somewhere down the road.

[brettac1]

I wasn't a fan at all at the time they signed him, and I'm still not...

 

That said, I do expect him to revert back to his norms at some point soon. My whole issue with it is that his norms + two good games in October don't mean you pay a player an 8 figure salary. I expected him to be the team's 4th best starter and have an ERA of around 5.00 due to the fact that he has a bad defense playing behind him instead of the terrific one he had in St. Louis. So, I guess he has lived up to expectations for me.

 

If the choices were what they were above, the obvious answer was D.) none of the above. I would have tried to get Ted Lilly, but I wouldn't have paid him what the Cubs did, either.

[giffted1]

I didn't like this deal from the start. With Villanueva seeming to be a good option in the rotation and Gallardo close, I saw no reason to sign Suppan. Not only did we sign a player to fill a hole that we didn't have, but we overpaid for that player.

 

I don't expect Suppan to be this bad for the rest of the season, and am just hoping he pitches decently enough that we'll be able to trade him in the future.

[DHonks]

I guess the only two pitchers I was more interested in than Suppan were Marquis and Maddux. I think Suppan has been kind of what was expected. He was fantastic early, struggling lately. He'll likely finish at around a 4.50 ERA, and keeps us in games. I just wish he could finish hitters.

[sbrylski]

We will know upon the conclusion of his time in Milwaukee. He's only 1/8th into his contracted tenure.

[pitchleague]

I do find it funny that back in April some people were singing the "Jeff Suppan Praise Hymn" after he began the year 4-2 with a 2.55 ERA. Some of us thought he was the second coming and that it was a great signing.

 

Of course, his BAA in April was .276--not that bad but not that great either.

 

We all knew he was not that kind of pitcher though. We all hoped that we had made the signing of the decade but it was highly unlikely. As someone else posted, he has historically been a very average inning-eater pitcher, who just happened to be awesome against the Brewers (or was it we just sucked back then?)

 

I am happy that he eats innings and keeps us in the game, for the most part (anybody care to go back to Scott Karl or Julio Mosquero or some dude like that?). I truly believe he will not "stink" like this all year. I am truly hoping that as we get more and more into the playoff push he will buckle down and get that focus that he had last October.

[trwi7]

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Meche has been a better-than-average pitcher for Kansas City, but is making $7.4 million this year.

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Meche has a 3.54 ERA in the AL Central which holds two of the best offenses in the majors.

 

Quote:

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but is making $7.4 million this year.

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I don't see how this matters. Suppan is making $7 million this year and makes and average of $10.5 million over the tenure of his contract compared to Meche's $11 million. Meche got an extra year on his contract but he's only 28.

[Ennder]

Suppan wasn't signed for his ERA, he was signed for his health, so I fail to see what the point is. Nobody thought he'd have an elite ERA.

[thablingster]

Whenever I get down on Suppan, I remind myself he is supposed to be Doug Davis and then I feel better. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

Suppan generally pitches better in the second half according to his career norms, so we can hope he'll only get better. To answer the question, no, I don't believe Suppan was the wrong choice. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[strawbossisevil]

Suppan is probably the 6th best starter on our team, behind Sheets, Capuano, Villenueva, Gallardo and Bush. That said, the guy eats innings, stays healthy and has average stuff. Not a bad guy to have at the back of a rotation. There are a lot of teams that would kill to stick Suppan at the #5 spot in their rotation (which is what I think he'll end up being for us next season). He's the kind of guy you can expect to win about half of his starts. Once again, I'll take that any day of the week from a #5 starter.

 

Now was/will he be worth the amount of money we offered him? That's definitely tough to justify right now, as he is known to pitch better in the second half of the season. It's really easy to jump on a guy when he's slumping (see Bush/Sheets/Cappy/Vargas threads from earlier in the year). What he provides our team is depth, a solid averageish pitcher who stays healthy and can be counted on throwing a solid number of innings over the course of the year. That's not something to scoff at.

 

That said, if his signing causes us to lose out on signing Sheets long term, I'll be whistling a totally different tune.

 

IMO, next year's rotation will be:

 

Sheets

Gallardo

Capuano

Bush

Suppan

 

With injuries being the way they are, having Parra and Villenueva around in the bullpen will provide us with incredible depth. I wouldn't be surprised to see a quantity for quality trade involving our pitching staff as well. Trading Capuano, Bush and Vargas for another top of the rotation type starter so Villenueva can be put into the rotation.

[augie46]

In the end the question won't be whether or not Suppan was the wrong choice, but was he worth the money. I hope that someday we don't decide that we can't afford to resign Ben Sheets because of Suppan's contract.

 

Next year's rotation will include Villanueva and Gallardo. I still think that Suppan will be in it. I also could see him as part of a trade though.

[BrewCrewForever]

Well Suppan was a better choice then Schmidt or Meche, but not sure it was even needed with guys like Gallardo and Villanueva sitting in the pen.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I hated the Suppan signing at the time and I hate it even more now. Bottom line is Suppan completely sucks. The guy cant even shut down the inept Washington Nationals. The fact is the guy is in the rotation instead of Gallardo and Villanueva who are far better pitchers. Throw in the fact that his huge contract prevents us from putting him in the bullpen or trading him and the signing just looks worse every time he pitches. All the moaning about Vargas is definitely warranted but the fact is Suppan is a far bigger problem. Having the two of them in the rotation instead of Gallardo and Villy may very well cost us the division.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

To answer the question in the thread title, No. Suppan is a perfect guy to fit into a mix of essentially a very young pitching staff. All the intangibles are there. He has experience, the players respect him, and he has a proven track record.

 

Now, if you're asking if Suppan was worth his contract, that's a different story. You could argue that question both ways, and I don't really see a clear cut answer. Without his NLCS MVP, he most likely doesn't get that contract. However, free agency was crazy over the winter, and as the saying goes, you get what you pay for. We paid for a journeyman pitcher with playoff experience. And that's exactly what we got.

 

Of course, if he does this October what he did last October, I think you could say that he was worth every penny.

[Never Outhustled]

Quote:

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Bottom line is Suppan completely sucks.

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There is the factless, baseless statement of the year. He had a 3.95 ERA over the last 3 years, and was the MVP of last years NLCS. A statement like the one above belongs in the vent thread.

 

Suppan has always been a slow starter, and strong 2nd half pitcher. When he carries us down the stretch, and in the postseason, I think the naysayers will be much happier. I'm more concerned about Capuano than Suppan at this point, as Capuano has been significantly worse in the 2nd half in his career.

 

2004-2006

ERA before the break 4.41

ERA after the break 3.41

 

So even if Suppan is regressing, we could still see an ERA of around 3.90 from here on out. I think we'd all be happy with that.

 

For those that think Suppan is overpaid, wait until you see what FA pitchers get next year. With attendence and TV ratings up again, FA prices will continue to rise. Guys of Suppans caliber will get $12-15 million a year, and we'll be happy to have Suppan under contract. If he's not 1 of our best 5 pitchers this offseason, the increasing FA prices will make him easy to trade.

 

Edit:

I'd just like to add that Suppan had a 5.83 ERA before the breal last year, and a 2.39 ERA after the break last year.

[Shampoo4U]

But it is always funny to read the boards in the off-season that the Brewers have such a low payroll, they need to spend money and get with the "Big Boys". Now they spent the money and it seems to be wrong again.

You always have to wonder why the Cradinals, in this case, didn't think he was worth all the extra dollars.

I would just wish that there would be a stop to all the "Bush" talk of taking him out of the rotation when it is Suppan and his dollars that really needs the start skipped.

[whynotthebrewers]

I agree that he has been below average for some time now but I agree in saying that he is what we expected. I don't know why this is a surprise to most. He has always given up a bunch of hits and had an era in the 4's. Yesterday is what he is. We were in the game and the offense was mad up of all solo bombs. As our 3 or 4 starter, he will get us 12-15 wins this year. I would say that is pretty good.

 

Once the playoffs come, who knows who is going to pitch. But getting there is the most important and I see the team making changes as the second half plays out. But our 3-5 starters keep us in the game almost every game. Sometimes the offense has to pick up some of the slack. But asking a team to score over 4 runs is not much to ask from a good team. If you want to win the division and be up there with the best in the NL, you have to hit as well. Loses like yesterday are on the offense just as much as the pitching, which was average.

[Braminano]

Suppan has been a workhorse in that he's thrown a lot of pitches...through 5 innings.

[jazzytrav]

Personally I loved the Suppan signing and I think it will pay-off in ways that none of us will see. The guy has been around a long time, and has playoff experience. We have a bunch of pitchers that haven't been around a long time, and have no playoff experience. So basically we're paying a guy to eat up some innings, and do some coaching on the side. I'll take it.

[Ennder]

Quote:

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How long do we have to wait for the "small sample" excuse to become nil?

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At least two seasons if you are talking about his ERA. His K/9, BB/9, HR/FB, GB% are right in line with the past three years so he's basically pitching the same as he always does. His BABIP is a little high but that could easily be from going to an above average defensive team to a below average one.

 

ERA is just a terrible stat to look at for less than 2-3 years worth of data.