Ike Davis to the Pirates

[SRB]

Usually a PTBNL is one of 2-4 options, which gives the trade partner time to scout and choose the player who best fits their needs, not the previous year's first round pick who can't yet be traded.

 

I can't recall a 1st round draft pick ever being traded the next season, let alone as a PTBNL, would you give up Devin Williams who was a 2nd round pick for Ike Davis? I wouldn't and Williams isn't on the same level yet as any of the players in the Pirate's top 10.

 

When the PTBNL is a later pick from a shortlist of options, it's usually just low-level prospects or minor league fliers. The reason they structure it as a PTBNL is because the team's scouts need to scour mediocre players, not known prospects.

 

Jon Heyman reported that the PTBNL here is "fairly significant." Meadows is wishful thinking on my part, but the Mets were demanding fairly good pitching prospects just a few weeks ago, so unless they completely gave up the PTBNL will likely be a decent prospect. I personally wouldn't have given up Williams, but I don't think a Davis-for-Williams trade would have been shocking or unexpected.

[igor67]

We will get a better idea when the PNTBL is actually named, but the framework here is pretty clear. The Mets finally lowered their expectations a bit (a little more on the quantity vs. quality side) probably just as importantly though the so-so start combined with the Brewers hot start pushed the Pirates 'to do something'. While it is vaguely possible that we could have matched the final price without it feeling like a big deal (and that remains to be seen with the PNTBL) given the semi public nature of the negotiations there is a benefit to Doug in future trades from having not completed the deal. The next time a GM is dealing with him and it gets down to the who blinks part of the negotiation, this clearly demonstrates Doug's willingness to walk away from a deal he doesn't like even when seemingly all of the pressure is on him to pull the trigger. That sort of benefit can matter a ton, but quantifying rigorously would be almost impossible.

[nate82]

The PTBNL is a player who was drafted in 2013 or so says Heyman.

 

[Eye Black]

The PTBNL is a player who was drafted in 2013 or so says Heyman.

 

If that is indeed the case, I am going to guess Jacoby Jones. IMO there is no way they would give up Meadows or McGuire. Could also be one of the lefties they picked up early in last year's draft, although if I was a Pirates fan I would be slightly disappointed in giving up either one of them.

[phnxcrew]

Hunter Morris hit 24 last year in 134 games and 28 in 136 games the year before. Combined with the fact that NL central parks are much easier to hit home runs in than any division, I believe he could. Not saying that he should be considered a good option, just pointing out that he is probably as good as Ike Davis (which isn't saying a lot)

[patrickgpe]

I don't think Overbay will be on the brewers the final day of the season. Ownership has said that they will make a move to get a player if they are in it. I wouldn't worry about a .208 hitter going to Pittsburgh. There will be a player like Morneau available in July if the brewers want. They have the pitching prospects to make the trade happen.

[RobDeer 45]

I'm glad we didn't ship any youngsters off.

[patrickgpe]

Thornburg for davis would be a disaster right now

[TheCrew07]

Interesting that Heyman insists it's a 2013 draft pick, Eye Black might be onto something with his suggestion, Jones is a bit redundant given the athleticism Pittsburgh projects to have in their outfield once they add Polanco. If the Mets still wanted pitching I could see it being Dickson, the Pirates are as short on LHP as we are, so they wouldn't have necessarily wanted to give up one.

 

The Mets would still scout the player whomever it is, amateur and pro player scouting are 2 different departments, teams use pro player scouting to track a player's progress regardless of his amauteur scouting reports..

[hurricanecrush]

I can't recall a 1st round draft pick ever being traded the next season...

Matt LaPorta?

[SoupTown]

Hunter Morris up to .848 OPS at AAA. I can never figure out whether to call him the 25 year old, ex AA MVP, top prospect... or the 26 year old .700ish OPS AAA journeyman. So, we simply have an Ike vs Hunter faceoff for 2014. I mean at the end of the 2014 you will say 'sure glad Morris will be the 2015 first baseman'... or 'why oh why did we not pick up Ike'

 

Who knows the outcome?

[igor67]

Well at some point if Overbay can't hit a lick, Hunter might start looking like a good platoon option. I have a hard time seeing much more than that from him at this point even with solid performances.

[DoubleSwitch]

Hunter Morris hit 24 last year in 134 games and 28 in 136 games the year before. Combined with the fact that NL central parks are much easier to hit home runs in than any division, I believe he could. Not saying that he should be considered a good option, just pointing out that he is probably as good as Ike Davis (which isn't saying a lot)

 

The Pacific Coast League is the most hitter friendly league in Pro baseball. Take a look at his AAA stats compared to the other first baseman in the league. Take a look at a guy like Daric Barton who looks like Kevin Youkillis in his prime every half the year in AAA and then plays average to below average ball in the bigs the other half. Daric Barton a way better player than Morris and Ike Davis is a way better player than Barton. Ike Davis went to AAA for 21 games last year and hit 1/3 as many HR's as Morris did in a full year, and he's only 6 months older than him. If Hunter Morris put up 111 wRC+ in AAA like Davis did for the Mets in 2012 I would be ecstatic.

 

I'm going to be way more generous than I should and assume Hunter could carry a 7% walk rate and a 22% K rate in the big leagues. These is about what he accomplished in in '12 and '13 in the high minors. In reality these numbers would almost certainly be worse in the majors, but this is a best case scenario. There is one player who has managed to put up an above replacement level value in the past ten years with those numbers or worse at 1B or DH, and that's Chris Davis in 08 and 12. That's a guy who has always graded out with ++ power that Morris doesn't have, and still he struggled through 5 years of mediocrity or worse. It's pretty simple really, if you're going to give up a greater than average number of outs to K's, and draw a below average number of walks than you either need to play a premium defensive position or have elite power. Hunter needs to take a huge step forward with his approach to be a major league player, and by all indications he hasn't done this. It would be one thing if he could mix in a bit in LF or 3b, but he can't even play average D at first. He hasn't earned to right to be even be in the discussion for a roster spot. He's a non-prospect in 25+ organizations, and the fact so many can squint and see a major leaguer is a testament to how awful system is.

[danzig6767]

Hunter Morris hit 24 last year in 134 games and 28 in 136 games the year before. Combined with the fact that NL central parks are much easier to hit home runs in than any division, I believe he could. Not saying that he should be considered a good option, just pointing out that he is probably as good as Ike Davis (which isn't saying a lot)

 

I'm going to be way more generous than I should and assume Hunter could carry a 7% walk rate and a 22% K rate in the big leagues. These is about what he accomplished in in '12 and '13 in the high minors. In reality these numbers would almost certainly be worse in the minors, but this is a best case scenario. There is one player who has managed to put up an above replacement level value in the past ten years with those numbers or worse at 1B or DH, and that's Chris Davis in 08 and 12. That's a guy who has always graded out with ++ power that Morris doesn't have, and still he struggled through 5 years of mediocrity or worse. It's pretty simple really, if you're going to give up a greater than average number of outs to K's, and draw a below average number of walks than you either need to play a premium defensive position or have elite power. Hunter needs to take a huge step forward with his approach to be a major league player, and by all indications he hasn't done this. It would be one thing if he could mix in a bit in LF or 3b, but he can't even play average D at first. He hasn't earned to right to be even be in the discussion for a roster spot. He's a non-prospect in 25+ organizations, and the fact so many can squint and see a major leaguer is a testament to how awful our

 

I doubt many want Morris being called up to be the everyday guy at firstbase, but it's not crazy to ask if he'd be a better backup option to Reynolds than Overbay currently is.

 

Then again, as long as Weeks is kept and wasting a roster spot, maybe it would be best to dump Overbay and keep someone on the team with more position flexibility? How much longer can they keep both Weeks/Overbay on the roster given each can only play one position and neither can hit well anymore? In the case of Rickie it's even worse because he's such a defensive liability also.

[TheCrew07]

I can't recall a 1st round draft pick ever being traded the next season...

Matt LaPorta?

 

Cripes that's the most obvious one.

[SoupTown]

Ike with ANOTHER grand slam. In a handful of games I am seeing power and walks and good D.

 

And our Ike counter.... Morris was 0 for 5 in AAA today.

[endaround]

Ike with ANOTHER grand slam. In a handful of games I am seeing power and walks and good D.

 

And our Ike counter.... Morris was 0 for 5 in AAA today.

 

No Green was 1 for 2 with 2 walks

[Bombers]

Ike with ANOTHER grand slam. In a handful of games I am seeing power and walks and good D.

 

And our Ike counter.... Morris was 0 for 5 in AAA today.

Or Thornburg with his .75 ERA in 12 innings. Plus those are Ike's only 2 HR. Product of luck.

[Warning Track Power]

I know there is a PTBNL in the trade with the Mets, but can anyone who has the MiLB experience speak to the equivalent of Zack Thornton in the Brewers system? I have heard Fiers mentioned somewhere on the site.

 

Also, could someone talk about Thornton in regard to Johnny Hellweg as well?

 

While we don't know the PTBNL, I wonder if Hellweg and Fiers for Ike would have worked? I think I would've done that to be honest.

[adambr2]

Ike with ANOTHER grand slam. In a handful of games I am seeing power and walks and good D.

 

And our Ike counter.... Morris was 0 for 5 in AAA today.

 

Judging a trade by 2 circumstantial grand slams is just silly.

 

You'll need most of this season at least to really evaluate this deal.

[SoupTown]

I judged Ike based on a very indepth analysis Fangraphs did? Did any of the 'IKE IS NO GOOD' posters read the analysis? Do you simply disagree with the hypothesis put forward? It could be wrong, but the posting style of 'I am right because I asked myself and you are wrong' is kind of silly.

[adambr2]

I judged Ike based on a very indepth analysis Fangraphs did? Did any of the 'IKE IS NO GOOD' posters read the analysis? Do you simply disagree with the hypothesis put forward? It could be wrong, but the posting style of 'I am right because I asked myself and you are wrong' is kind of silly.

 

You posted exclusively about IKE hitting another grand slam and Morris going 0 for 5. I simply said it was silly to judge a trade based on such a ridiculously small sample of performances like that -- just like it would be silly for me right now to say "Whew, Ike is 0 for his last 9, sure dodged a bullet there."

 

No one would know that you based it off anything else -- on page 1 you made some very vague reference to a Fangraphs article about Ike but gave no link and no real evidence of anything for anyone to know what you were talking about to agree or disagree with you.

[SoupTown]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ike-davis-and-the-malfunctioning-parachute/

 

I hope I don't need to re-write all I have ever written on each subject I comment on... because a reader may not know completely what I am talking about... and the reader cannot go to fangraphs and type ike davis in the search engine.

 

0 for 9... lucky us.

[adambr2]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ike-davis-and-the-malfunctioning-parachute/

 

I hope I don't need to re-write all I have ever written on each subject I comment on... because a reader may not know completely what I am talking about... and the reader cannot go to fangraphs and type ike davis in the search engine.

 

0 for 9... lucky us.

 

You're the one who brought it up in the first place...if you're going to discuss a Fangraphs article on Ike Davis I would think you would at least direct us to which article that you're talking about. The reader can surely go to fangraphs and type in "ike davis", but the reader probably does not have time to sift through 20 articles referencing Ike Davis to find out which one you're referring to.

 

As for the article, it's not exactly a rousing endorsement of Ike Davis. The comparisons to Mickey Tettleton and J.T. Snow show examples of 1st baseman having a rough year at 26 and then rebounding, but I don't think the average fan ever thought that was impossible for Davis anyway. In any event, if Snow is the ceiling for Davis, I don't think it's a huge loss.

 

Since you think that management failed the fans and dropped the ball in not acquiring Davis, I'm just curious as to what you what have given up for Davis that would have beat the Pirates offer (obviously a little hard to judge right now without knowing who the PTBNL is).

 

Thornburg? Fiers? It might have taken Thornburg, and I surely wouldn't think that anyone would think that Davis is a substantial enough upgrade from Reynolds to make that worthwhile.

[SoupTown]

I would have traded fiers. But reading recently, the pirates and crew never got close. So sobeit. The ptbn will be interesting

 

Re 1st base going forward the current patch seems to be ok for a while. The future is sure unclear. But if we manage an upgrade there say in 2015 that will be the easiest boost for this already good team

 

Maybe we can pick up Ike Davis in the off season when he is released