How long until you make moves regarding position players

[reillymcshane]

Wondering what people think is a good point to make some moves with regard to some of our position players.

 

We hit the 1/10 mark of the season yesterday. Things can still change pretty quick, so I'm not advocating making moves now. But when do we hit the magic point where we realize a change is needed.

 

The Brewer offense has been carried by Lucroy, A-Ram and Gomez. Braun has been okay, but I expect more. Same with Scooter. 1B, SS, LF and 2B (at least Rickie) have been unproductive. That's too many black holes if the team wants to contend.

 

Questions:

 

1B - This is brutal (again) this year. Reynolds was doing okay, but a cold streak has sent him into the sub-.200 BA levels. Overbay has been awful. Even with 5 walks he's got an OBP of .280. The key becomes 'what do you do?' It's not like we have a guy tearing up AAA. Morris and Halton have been mediocre (at best). Green is playing well at AAA, but I don't think anyone sees him as an everyday 1B option. He could easily be brought up as a backup corner. A trade is probably the most likely option.

 

The crazy idea might be moving Braun there. I know some people think he'll just be the worst fielder ever, but I don't think so. Either way, it might help him stay healthier if he doesn't have to throw the ball like from the OF. This might be an idea for the offseason.

 

2B - How long to you keep Rickie if he continues to struggle? I just hate to admit Weeks isn't looking good. I always thought he was a good player. Scooter's doing about what I expected - good BA, but little else. If you dump Rickie, do you need a platoon partner for Scooter?

 

LF - Davis has five doubles (a good sign), but no HRs. He's hitting .250. Not exactly what we needed. His lack of BB is concerning. He's always had a decent walk rate in the minors, so it's frustrating to see him swinging at everything. We could bring up Gindl (who started slowly at AAA but seems to be doing better), but are you better off just waiting out Davis and hope he comes around? Schafer doesn't look like a full time guy, although I think he brings a lot to the table with his speed and defense.

 

SS - I mention SS because Segura is playing poorly. Since the all-star break last year he's been under a .600 OPS. He's turned into a groundball hitter. This year, his fly ball rate is really, really low. Was the first 1/2 of last year a fluke? The options at SS aren't pretty, however. So we're likely going with Segura no matter what happens.

 

My thought is to play about 1/3 of the season before making any dramatic moves. Thus, you see where players (and the team record) are at at the end of May, then start making moves (if necessary).

[PrinceEatMeat]

1B - Can't do much. Just roll with Reynolds. Overbay sucks, but there's really no one to replace him. I'd probably just dump him and let Lucroy and Maldy backup 1B.

 

2B - Weeks either needs to play more or get released, because he's a waste of a bench spot just like Overbay due to his lack of versatility. Bianchi or Herrara could face LHP if need be.

 

LF - Just ride it out. Maybe give Schafer more starts. I'd dump Overbay and Weeks and call up Gindl and keep Herrera around.

 

SS - Not even a question here. Keep rolling out Segura.

[chadomac]

To really make any judgments after 16 games is ridiculous to me, so I don't have much to contribute... but I will say I predict Rickie loses his spot eventually due to a reliever getting healthy or being called up from AAA. We're gonna need another reliever eventually, and he's going to be seen as just wasting space. They cut ties with Bill Hall (and Randy Wolf), so I know the Brewers have it in them to cut the cord despite the salary he's making. Eventually it just won't make sense keeping him on the roster.

[SoupTown]

Good teams (management) are always looking to upgrade here and there where possible. After 16 games, it appears Segura continues the same form as his prior 80 games. So, since over the last 96 games Segura is a .600 ops guy, he likely should be batting 8th. Simple. Not a witch hunt, just a baseball decision.

 

Just like the Pirates picked up Ike Davis, and they obviously did not care about the feelings of Ishakawa... the Pirates decided they would do a 'little thing' to maybe help. Not the Brewers 'sit on hands' approach.

 

Weeks should be played a bit more or released. The last couple of MLB articles re the Brewers have 'Weeks waiting to catch fire' and a few days later 'Segura waiting to catch fire'. That is the normal (not always) approach of the Brewers. Sit and wait.

 

There should be some adjustments always being thought out and made.

[crossface21]

I don't understand the waiting for "Weeks to catch fire" rhetoric. Weeks hasn't caught fire in a long time. "As Weeks goes is the way the Brewers go" was the old mantra and it was true 3-4 years ago. However, as time has gone on Weeks can't hit and his fielding is average, and has lost 2 or 3 steps speedwise. The organization has shown that they are willing to cut ties with a player regardless of salary and I believe that is what will happen eventually with Weeks. It's too bad because I think Weeks has been a great teammate and a great person in the community. Basically everything you want out of a ballplayer, just skills have eroded quickly.

 

Championship teams don't have this many holes on a roster. I don't think anyone realistically expected the Brewers to contend for a WS this year, but it's a great thought and I really hope they have a magical run. However, holes at 1b, questions at 2b, SS struggling, LF was a gamble to begin with, and you're basically short a man in the bullpen because of Wang, it's gonna be pretty tough. I'm as big a Brewer fan as anyone, but I just can't see them hanging around till the very end unless at least 2 of the 5 question marks gets answered before July.

 

With that said, the SP I think is very strong. Once they signed Garza, I thought the wild card on whether this team could contend or not was Peralta. If he's even close to what they think they have in him, they will be there in September. They aren't going to have those 5-6 game losing streaks that can be killers. 5-6 guys in the bullpen are very good. The pitching could very well carry this team to the promised land.

[igor67]

You keep looking at first because you knew going it that it was a patchwork. The other positions have young guys that you have confidence in and are not players you quickly look to bench. Certainly you look at some giving them days off and the like, but the reverse case would be trying to go out and sign Gomez and Lucroy to Cabrera sized deal based on their great first couple of weeks forgetting their ages and likely aging patterns.

[lcbj68c]

I also don't feel I have much to add to the original question, but I will say that this "team with too many gigantic holes to compete" has the most wins baseball. Does that sustain over 162 games? Probably not, but it's like anything else with a team, at some point in the season those holes will be carrying the team for a few days/weeks when the hot starters regress to their norms.

 

I think the time to make the moves regarding position players is July or when somebody is OBVIOUSLY breaking down doors in AAA to deserve a callup. I haven't seen that yet. The only three position players doing anything productive seem to be career AAA guys over the age of 32 or named Taylor Green. Fiers is pitching well, but where do you put him? The status quo (with the most wins in baseball) seems to be sufficient for now. The Tampa Bay Rays (in a historically tougher division) EVERY year have 4 holes just like ours on the offensive side but dominate with their pitching to give themselves a chance in October. I find nothing wrong with that mold. What Tampa usually fails to do though is fill ANY of the holes at the July deadline. I believe in Melvin to do better than that.

[Mr Southpaw]

Cutting Overbay and bringing up Taylor Green is the first transaction. At least you have someone that can run. The defense you get from Overbay is not that great.

 

Second move would be to cut Weeks. Let Bianchi hit lefties once in a while. This at least makes room for the next reliever.

 

If we are ten games over .500 in June, make a trade to improve LF, 2B or 3B. One of the AAA starters and a prospect should be able to net something of an upgrade.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that 1B is fine, and 2nd is passable. I think if a move is made, it will be for an outfielder with some power. If Davis continues to play at this pace, that just isn't going to get the job done. There should be a few decent options out there in July when it comes to rental players.

[HiAndTight]

None of this is all that surprising(other than Braun as I thought his thumb issues were gone and he was going to be healthy heading into the season).

 

1B-Just as Reynolds BA has dropped under .200, he'll get hot again and it'll shoot back up. I doubt he's going to hit .280, but I expect him to hit .240-ish and if he gets 450-500 AB's, ~hit 25 HR's and put up decent power numbers. Maybe we make a move like Pitt did last year for Morneau. A smaller move later in the year, but short of that, I think we're just stuck.

 

As far as moving Braun there, I don't get why anyone thinks it's this terrible idea. The argument that because he was bad at one corner IF spot he'll be bad at another holds no water for me. Braun had little trouble getting to balls, he just couldn't make the throws. At 1st, he doesn't have to very often. But that's not a fix for this year.

 

SS-Segura's shown enough that he's the guy for this year and there really is nothing they can do there.

 

LF-I'd hoped Davis would start quicker, but for a guy given his first full time job who's not an elite hitter, it's not a shock that he's being overly aggressive early on. But clearly he needs to start walking.

 

2nd-Gennett has to have a platoon partner. The problem with Weeks is that he doesn't strike me as the type of guy who can do much with sporadic playing time, and he has shown nothing to earn more playing time. I'd keep him for now, but if you can add someone from a team that's out of it later in the year... So maybe you just wait until we're closer to the quarter point and then decide what to do with Weeks.

 

 

This team had obvious flaws and I doubt too many on here have really changed their opinions on any of the players save for maybe a guy like Thornburg.

 

We also have issues you haven't mentioned. Aramis Ramirez has been playing a lot and has been on fire. I don't think that it'd be that big of an outlier for him to have a big year given how healthy he looks, but it's even more likely he tweaks something and then has to deal with that the rest of the year.

 

 

 

The one thing that I do take exception with is the example someone used with the Pirates trading for Ike Davis and then twice said, the Pirates aren't sitting on their hands like the Brewers do. I don't think the Brewers "sit on their hands," especially when their competitive. In fact, if you take away the teams in another stratosphere(LAA teams, NYY) financially, the Brewers are more aggressive and more apt to make changes than others. It'd just be absolutely foolish to do so this early. And of course sometimes sitting on your hands is wise. I'm sure glad Melvin's hands are warm and Thornburg is still throwing pitches in a Brewers uniform than do "a little thing to help."

[TURBO]

 

1B-Just as Reynolds BA has dropped under .200, he'll get hot again and it'll shoot back up. I doubt he's going to hit .280, but I expect him to hit .240-ish and if he gets 450-500 AB's, ~hit 25 HR's and put up decent power numbers.

 

Mark Reynolds has hit .240 or above 2 times in his 7 year career. The last time was in 2009, and since then, hasn't even come close to that average.

 

2010 - .198

2011 - .221

2012 - .221

2013 - .220

 

To think he even sniffs .240 again as a 31 year old whiff machine is high hopes if I have ever seen them. He may hit 25+ homers, but if he is our regular 1B, he will come awful close to 200 Ks as well. Signing him was a desperation move, nothing more. We are far from ok with him in this line-up long term. I'm just glad that our line-up is good enough that we can afford to hit a lame duck in what should be a run producing position like 1B, and since our line-up is solid, we can bat what should be a run producing position player like Reynolds in the 7 or 8 position...

 

Imagine if we had a legit 1B that could hit for a decent average, strike out a league average, and still hit 25+ homers... Our line-up could be pretty deadly.

 

Oh, and I am fine with Gennett playing without a platoon partner. I'd rather give the at bats to him than watch an over the hill has been like Weeks flail away. There is nothing gained by letting Weeks have 4 or 5 at bats a week. All it does is take at bats away from a guy that could be manning 2B for the next 3 or 4 years. Weeks serves no purpose on this team right now, and all he is doing is taking up a bench spot that should be used for someone who isn't one dimensional and can only play one position.

[RockCoCougars]

As long as Reynolds can hit 25 or more homers, if he can keep a batting average somewhere above .200, I am fine with it. All indications are that this team is going to need every bit of power they can get, especially considering that Braun has only homered in one game this season.

[TooLiveBrew]

As long as Reynolds can hit 25 or more homers, if he can keep a batting average somewhere above .200, I am fine with it. All indications are that this team is going to need every bit of power they can get, especially considering that Braun has only homered in one game this season.

17 games into the season, and a franchise-record-tying 3-HR game is cause for concern, eh? Tough room.

[torts]

im not concerned with Reynolds AB's because his performance on the field has been amazing compared to the last couple years. roll with him, deal with his low stats and just be thankful yuni is gone

[RockCoCougars]

As long as Reynolds can hit 25 or more homers, if he can keep a batting average somewhere above .200, I am fine with it. All indications are that this team is going to need every bit of power they can get, especially considering that Braun has only homered in one game this season.

17 games into the season, and a franchise-record-tying 3-HR game is cause for concern, eh? Tough room.

 

A bit of stat cherry picking on my part, but still. Since the beginning of last year, Braun has only hit 12 homers in roughly half a season of at bats. For a guy who averaged roughly 35 homers a year at the beginning of his career, I believe that's cause for concern, especially considering his thumb and all the other issues of the past 12 months.

[HiAndTight]

 

1B-Just as Reynolds BA has dropped under .200, he'll get hot again and it'll shoot back up. I doubt he's going to hit .280, but I expect him to hit .240-ish and if he gets 450-500 AB's, ~hit 25 HR's and put up decent power numbers.

 

Mark Reynolds has hit .240 or above 2 times in his 7 year career. The last time was in 2009, and since then, hasn't even come close to that average.

 

2010 - .198

2011 - .221

2012 - .221

2013 - .220

 

To think he even sniffs .240 again as a 31 year old whiff machine is high hopes if I have ever seen them. He may hit 25+ homers, but if he is our regular 1B, he will come awful close to 200 Ks as well. Signing him was a desperation move, nothing more. We are far from ok with him in this line-up long term. I'm just glad that our line-up is good enough that we can afford to hit a lame duck in what should be a run producing position like 1B, and since our line-up is solid, we can bat what should be a run producing position player like Reynolds in the 7 or 8 position...

 

Imagine if we had a legit 1B that could hit for a decent average, strike out a league average, and still hit 25+ homers... Our line-up could be pretty deadly.

 

Oh, and I am fine with Gennett playing without a platoon partner. I'd rather give the at bats to him than watch an over the hill has been like Weeks flail away. There is nothing gained by letting Weeks have 4 or 5 at bats a week. All it does is take at bats away from a guy that could be manning 2B for the next 3 or 4 years. Weeks serves no purpose on this team right now, and all he is doing is taking up a bench spot that should be used for someone who isn't one dimensional and can only play one position.

 

 

He's a .233 career hitter and he's always been a guy who strikes out a ton. I just meant to say that he's a streaky hitter and right now he's in a cold streak. I said .240-ish. Sure, it could be .220. But during the same time period you mentioned, he also had a OPS of .760 and averaged 28 HR's a year. So he'll be better than he is right now. That's all. I was just throwing the .240 off the top of my head.

 

But in general I agree with everything you said about him. He was signed out of desperation. But he was also signed and made the team because he was the best option available. I don't know what at this point has changed. I did say that we could make a move similar to what the Pirates did late year when they traded for Morneau.

 

The 1st basemen you're talking about would be ideal. You could throw him into the #5 spot, hit Luc 2nd, let Segura get hot lower in the lineup, bump Davis down until he can start to get on base more. And we missed out on that player when the White Sox gave him 6 years and 68 million dollars!

 

 

I do totally disagree with you regarding Gennett. He's really bad vs left handers. Weeks is still a better option vs left handers than Gennett. So I think he does still serve a purpose. The question is how significant is that purpose. If we could add a utility IF'er in the mold of Jerry Hairston all the better, but teams generally don't part with useful utility guys before May.

 

 

 

The best solution I can see to the 1st base situation at this point is to ride with Reynolds and Overbay until June 5th and then see if you can grab Morales for 6-7 million for the rest of the year. I really don't want to see us giving up anything of value from an already barren farm system for a 1st basemen.

[HiAndTight]

As long as Reynolds can hit 25 or more homers, if he can keep a batting average somewhere above .200, I am fine with it. All indications are that this team is going to need every bit of power they can get, especially considering that Braun has only homered in one game this season.

17 games into the season, and a franchise-record-tying 3-HR game is cause for concern, eh? Tough room.

 

 

It's not always about sample sizes or things that you can quantify. Anyone can see that Braun's not swinging the bat anywhere near how we've seen him swing it in the past.

 

There is no bigger concern for me right now for the Brewers than Ryan Braun. A big part of it is because they don't even know if a surgery is going to fix the problem...but they do know it could make it worse, and he just doesn't look like the same guy. He's got to get his bat started earlier..at least to my eye and that's leading to more guess hitting and he's not drawing walks or showing his normal patience.

 

 

If Wily Peralta came out and was throwing 89 MPH, but had put up 4 really good starts and one of them was a shutout, there would be cause for concern, wouldn't there?

 

Then of course there is the part that is concerned that everyone is going to blame any drop in numbers to PED's.

[PrinceFielderx1]

They wont change the offense at all.

[TooLiveBrew]

As long as Reynolds can hit 25 or more homers, if he can keep a batting average somewhere above .200, I am fine with it. All indications are that this team is going to need every bit of power they can get, especially considering that Braun has only homered in one game this season.

17 games into the season, and a franchise-record-tying 3-HR game is cause for concern, eh? Tough room.

 

A bit of stat cherry picking on my part, but still. Since the beginning of last year, Braun has only hit 12 homers in roughly half a season of at bats. For a guy who averaged roughly 35 homers a year at the beginning of his career, I believe that's cause for concern, especially considering his thumb and all the other issues of the past 12 months.

It's not always about sample sizes or things that you can quantify. Anyone can see that Braun's not swinging the bat anywhere near how we've seen him swing it in the past.

Look around the league -- the current list of guys with a sub-.700 OPS in the NL includes Heyward, Wright, Granderson, Craig, Sandoval, Pence, Headley, & Hill.

 

Braun's OPS is .797, even though he hasn't looked completely like his normal self yet. I'm not worried at this point.

[Bombers]

 

2B - How long to you keep Rickie if he continues to struggle? I just hate to admit Weeks isn't looking good. I always thought he was a good player. Scooter's doing about what I expected - good BA, but little else. If you dump Rickie, do you need a platoon partner for Scooter?

 

 

2B - Weeks either needs to play more or get released, because he's a waste of a bench spot just like Overbay due to his lack of versatility. Bianchi or Herrara could face LHP if need be.

 

2nd-Gennett has to have a platoon partner. The problem with Weeks is that he doesn't strike me as the type of guy who can do much with sporadic playing time, and he has shown nothing to earn more playing time. I'd keep him for now, but if you can add someone from a team that's out of it later in the year... So maybe you just wait until we're closer to the quarter point and then decide what to do with Weeks.

 

Seriously, what is everyone's problem with Ryan Joseph Gennett? He has been great thus far and currently sports a 720 OPS, has made not only the routine plays but great ones too. I think he contributes more than "little else" as you state. I just don't understand the hate for him.

[RockCoCougars]

As long as Reynolds can hit 25 or more homers, if he can keep a batting average somewhere above .200, I am fine with it. All indications are that this team is going to need every bit of power they can get, especially considering that Braun has only homered in one game this season.

17 games into the season, and a franchise-record-tying 3-HR game is cause for concern, eh? Tough room.

 

A bit of stat cherry picking on my part, but still. Since the beginning of last year, Braun has only hit 12 homers in roughly half a season of at bats. For a guy who averaged roughly 35 homers a year at the beginning of his career, I believe that's cause for concern, especially considering his thumb and all the other issues of the past 12 months.

 

The reverse-jinx when it comes to my posts is getting to be a common occurrence. I'm not only consistently proven wrong, generally it takes place within 24 hours in decisive fashion. If Braun goes on a tear now, I'm going to give myself some of the credit.

[DoubleSwitch]

Nobody is going to trade anything of value this early. Gennett and Reynolds are perfectly serviceable players. Davis has earned a little more time. Segura has earned an entire season's worth of time. Two moves I would look at making this next month or so would be to dump Overbay and Weeks for Gindl and Herrera.

[logan82]

Segura has only bought himself half a season. He was pretty bad the second half of last year. I would keep playing him all year but only because we don't really have any other options.

 

I would give Weeks until the end of June. I don't think he will improve.

 

I would drop Overbay now and bring up Gindle.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gennett has as many hits vs. lefties so far as Weeks does this season. The idea that he's completely useless vs. lefties based on 40 or so AB's last year is really overstated. In a lineup loaded with RH bats, they could live with Gennett playing everyday.

 

Velez has been on fire at Nashville. He might be an option if Davis flounders. If Gindl can catch fire, he too might get a shot. Morris has been just ok.

 

Weeks and Overbay are done. That's pretty simple. It might take each another 30 or so AB's to convince Brewer management though. But if they need a 40 man spot, those are the obvious spots.

[logan82]

You really think people are making their decision based on 40 PA?