Jeffress: re-signs w/MIL; & original Greinke trade re-visited

[jerichoholicninja]

The White Sox, Brewers and Cardinals are three of the teams interested in Jeffress, TSN's Scott MacArthur reports. Conversely, MLBDailyDish.com's Chris Cotillo (Twitter links) hears from a source that that the Cards aren't in the hunt but Jeffress' "decision [is] almost made" about his new club. At least 15 clubs called about Jeffress once he became available, Cotillo notes.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/04/jeremy-jeffress-elects-free-agency.html

 

I have a feeling he will sign with Milwaukee. I have no faith that he will become anything, not even a semi-useful bullpen piece but we know how this club loves bringing back former players.

 

It would be interesting to see if the Cardinals can actually get something out of him if he signs with them.

[Warning Track Power]

The original Greinke trade looks better and better everyday. Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress have all been replaced by equal or better players in the system save for maybe Odorizzi.

 

-Segura v. Escobar: Close, but likely a Brewer win

-Gomez v. Cain: Brewers

-Jeffress has really not done much

-Odorizzi would be nice to have now as a long term replacement option with Thornburg and Nelson for Lohse, Estrada and/or possibly Yo, but in hindsight that would not have stopped me from making the deal.

 

Jeffress still can bring the gas. It's just a matter of control. Johnny Hellweg anyone?

[DR28]

I'm good with bringing back Jeffress to be a bullpen piece... Wooten back to AAA, Jeffress takes his spot in bullpen.

[JohnBriggs12]

The White Sox have the biggest need of those 3 teams so I wouldn't be surprised he ended up there.

[TheCrew07]

The original Greinke trade looks better and better everyday. Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress have all been replaced by equal or better players in the system save for maybe Odorizzi.

 

-Segura v. Escobar: Close, but likely a Brewer win

-Gomez v. Cain: Brewers

-Jeffress has really not done much

-Odorizzi would be nice to have now as a long term replacement option with Thornburg and Nelson for Lohse, Estrada and/or possibly Yo, but in hindsight that would not have stopped me from making the deal.

 

Jeffress still can bring the gas. It's just a matter of control. Johnny Hellweg anyone?

 

Firstly I disagree with how you judge the value of a trade... it's not about what the prospects do after they are traded, it should be about the ultimate value of the return. The prospects had an assigned value at the time of the trade, what they do after the fact is moot, they aren't coming back, the core issue is always the value received back.

 

You can say Escobar ultimately became Segura, but that's a stretch because the situation isn't that simple. Acquiring Segura only happened because the Brewers went after Marcum and Greinke in the first place. Those moves only happened because of everything that Melvin did prior to that point both in trades and in Free Agency. It could have just as easily have been Mike Olt instead of Segura who would have has his career derailed by getting hit in the head with a pitch during winter ball. The core issue here is if acquiring players like Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke is worth years like 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013? All of those moves came with greater opportunity costs than just the prospects whom were traded away.

 

Secondly, how are Gomez and Cain related? Those moves are on 2 different trade arcs and I would have taken Cain or Gomez over Aoki in RF any day. I realize Cain hasn't been able to stay healthy but I'll take my chances with toolsy players who are excellent defenders and hope they can ascend offensively, at least through arbitration. Cain will never hit for the same level of power as Gomez but until last season Gomez wasn't anything special offensively either.

 

I have no problem admitting I never thought Gomez would be anywhere near this productive offensively, kudos to him for proving me very wrong. But I also think that Cain will be above average offensively in CF IF he can stay healthy. It's too bad really, the Brewers pushed Cain in 2009 to come back from an injury but the first injury led to a second more serious injury, and he's only had 2 fully healthy seasons since.

 

I've said many times that I like BR.com's WAR better for pitchers and Fangraphs better for hitters. I don't put much stock into FIP because it's too strike out driven, which is why I prefer Baseball-reference's number when it comes to pitching. Baseball-reference has Greinke giving the Brewers 3.7 war combined between 2011 and 2012... 1.5 in 2011 and 2.2 in 2012. So to me, the question I'm asking myself is if all of the value traded away was worth 3.7 wins? Could there have been a different solution where we pulled more WAR for the same value given away? I understand that WAR has its issues as well, so how about this, could we have gotten more than 294.2 total innings at a good ERA? Or have gotten the same # of innings but not had to deal with Yuni B at SS? There are literally dozens of ways to improve the "team" rather than just looking at a single position. Marcum only netted us 202.1 total innings over 2 years, could we have found better value than him as well?

 

Replacing any negative WAR player with even a league average player is at least a 2 win swing. In terms of the Greinke trade we upgraded 1 spot and downgraded another, Yuni B's craptasticness negatively affected Greinke's value in the same way that Fielder's inability to scoop a ball at 1st base hurt his overall value to the team. Trading for all these short term solutions directly led to signing Looper, Davis, Wolf, Lohse, and so on. If we had more longevity in the rotation we could have looked to spend our monetary resources elsewhere, the team could look entirely different. Maybe instead of trading for Sabathia they go for a different more long term solution, it's possible we don't make the playoffs in 2008, but maybe we have better run in 2009-2013, the dominoes could have fallen a much different way.

 

A trade isn't a win just because the players we traded away don't become all-stars, it's just not that simple. The ultimate value of the move is what should matter most. Acquiring Segura will work out well, he's productive and has longevity, he'll be at least be 12 WAR player during his time in Milwaukee (3.3 for 2013). In trades we should always be doing 2 things... 1) looking to move up in value SP > PP > RP and 2) looking to acquire as many wins as possible. Generally speaking to acquire the most wins possible you need to target solutions with the greatest longevity, players you have for 6+ years are hopefully going to provide more wins than players you control for 2 or less. When you aren't interested maximizing the return of the assets you trade away, and settle for the best solution for a single season, then you end up having to constantly readdress the same issue over and over again, like we have with the rotation.

 

If we want to actually plug a hole, then it has to be done with a player who we can control 3+ years, that gives us enough time to develop a player to fill that spot down the road. Anything less and the hole just comes right back around again.

[torts]

Wooten is only on the roster because Overbay is on paternity leave, and once thats over he'll be sent back to AAA. so replacing wooten with Jeffress is not really an option

[DR28]

Wooten is only on the roster because Overbay is on paternity leave, and once thats over he'll be sent back to AAA. so replacing wooten with Jeffress is not really an option

 

Wooten was called up when Kintzler went on the DL... Herrera was called up for Overbay.

[DR28]

McCalvy just tweeted... Brewers sign Jeffress to Minor League deal.

 

My guess is he'll be in the Brewers bullpen by May 1st.

[craigharmann]

McCalvy just tweeted... Brewers sign Jeffress to Minor League deal.

 

My guess is he'll be in the Brewers bullpen by May 1st.

 

 

Can't hurt. Totally worth a shot.

[Warning Track Power]

CONTINUED DISCUSSION FROM THE LOCKED JEFRESS THREAD IN TRANSACTIONS & RUMORS

 

Firstly I disagree with how you judge the value of a trade... it's not about what the prospects do after they are traded, it should be about the ultimate value of the return. The prospects had an assigned value at the time of the trade, what they do after the fact is moot, they aren't coming back, the core issue is always the value received back.

Sure. I agree that you have to look at the value at what was received back at the time. But you have no clue other than pure speculation as to what those prospects could have brought back other than Greinke. So at the time, the assigned value of those prospects, gave the Brewers Greinke. Could the Brewers have acquired more? You don't know and neither do I. Your wanting to look at the moment rather than look back in hindsight is being done to serve your argument's purpose as the Brewers currently have players that are better than any of those prospects at all of those positions.

 

 

You can say Escobar ultimately became Segura, but that's a stretch because the situation isn't that simple. Acquiring Segura only happened because the Brewers went after Marcum and Greinke in the first place. Those moves only happened because of everything that Melvin did prior to that point both in trades and in Free Agency. It could have just as easily have been Mike Olt instead of Segura who would have has his career derailed by getting hit in the head with a pitch during winter ball. The core issue here is if acquiring players like Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke is worth years like 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013? All of those moves came with greater opportunity costs than just the prospects whom were traded away.

 

Escobar became Segura. That is a fact. The FO traded a group of assets (prospects) for another asset (Greinke). When that asset couldn't be retained, it was traded for another asset (Segura). Marcum and Sabathia have no relevance to this discussion and are completely unrelated.

 

The opportunity costs you speak of...what are those? Moves that could have been made had the Brewers held Brantley, Lawrie, Cain, Jeffress, Odorizzi and Escobar? What trades are those? Or do you mean the Brewers could have had that team in 2009-2013? Again, this is pure speculation on your part as to what the Brewers could have been with an everyday lineup comprised of Lawrie, Escobar, Cain and Brantley.

 

Secondly, how are Gomez and Cain related? Those moves are on 2 different trade arcs and I would have taken Cain or Gomez over Aoki in RF any day. I realize Cain hasn't been able to stay healthy but I'll take my chances with toolsy players who are excellent defenders and hope they can ascend offensively, at least through arbitration. Cain will never hit for the same level of power as Gomez but until last season Gomez wasn't anything special offensively either.

 

I have no problem admitting I never thought Gomez would be anywhere near this productive offensively, kudos to him for proving me very wrong. But I also think that Cain will be above average offensively in CF IF he can stay healthy. It's too bad really, the Brewers pushed Cain in 2009 to come back from an injury but the first injury led to a second more serious injury, and he's only had 2 fully healthy seasons since.

 

Cain would have been the starter in CF had the Greinke trade not occurred. I firmly believe that. However, having Gomez allowed the Brewers to part with Cain in the Greinke trade. An opportunity arose and the Brewers took it and it paid off handsomely as Cain has never lived up to expectations, whereas Gomez has.

 

"I'll take my chances with toolsy players who are excellent defenders and hope they can ascend offensively, at least through arbitration"...did you just describe Carlos Gomez?

 

I've said many times that I like BR.com's WAR better for pitchers and Fangraphs better for hitters. I don't put much stock into FIP because it's too strike out driven, which is why I prefer Baseball-reference's number when it comes to pitching. Baseball-reference has Greinke giving the Brewers 3.7 war combined between 2011 and 2012... 1.5 in 2011 and 2.2 in 2012. So to me, the question I'm asking myself is if all of the value traded away was worth 3.7 wins? Could there have been a different solution where we pulled more WAR for the same value given away? I understand that WAR has its issues as well, so how about this, could we have gotten more than 294.2 total innings at a good ERA? Or have gotten the same # of innings but not had to deal with Yuni B at SS? There are literally dozens of ways to improve the "team" rather than just looking at a single position. Marcum only netted us 202.1 total innings over 2 years, could we have found better value than him as well?

 

Yes. Yuni stunk. Marcum trade...exceptionally shortsighted. You and I agree there. Do I wish the FO had acquired a younger arm with higher upside than Marcum? Absolutely.

 

Replacing any negative WAR player with even a league average player is at least a 2 win swing. In terms of the Greinke trade we upgraded 1 spot and downgraded another, Yuni B's craptasticness negatively affected Greinke's value in the same way that Fielder's inability to scoop a ball at 1st base hurt his overall value to the team. Trading for all these short term solutions directly led to signing Looper, Davis, Wolf, Lohse, and so on.

Um...What? Looper was signed for 2009, Davis and Wolf for 2010, Lohse for 2013...did I miss some big trade of a young arm by the Brewers? Odorizzi, the only pitching prospect dealt, was still in the organization for every one of those signings save Lohse. The Brewers have not dealt a pitching prospect that has turned into anything in the time period you are referencing unless you count Rob Bryson and Zack Jackson in the Sabathia deal. Sheets blew his arm out, the Brewers went as far as they could with Sabathia to meet his $ demands.

 

If we had more longevity in the rotation we could have looked to spend our monetary resources elsewhere, the team could look entirely different. Maybe instead of trading for Sabathia they go for a different more long term solution, it's possible we don't make the playoffs in 2008, but maybe we have better run in 2009-2013, the dominoes could have fallen a much different way.

 

A trade isn't a win just because the players we traded away don't become all-stars, it's just not that simple. The ultimate value of the move is what should matter most. Acquiring Segura will work out well, he's productive and has longevity, he'll be at least be 12 WAR player during his time in Milwaukee (3.3 for 2013). In trades we should always be doing 2 things... 1) looking to move up in value SP > PP > RP and 2) looking to acquire as many wins as possible. Generally speaking to acquire the most wins possible you need to target solutions with the greatest longevity, players you have for 6+ years are hopefully going to provide more wins than players you control for 2 or less. When you aren't interested maximizing the return of the assets you trade away, and settle for the best solution for a single season, then you end up having to constantly readdress the same issue over and over again, like we have with the rotation.

 

If we want to actually plug a hole, then it has to be done with a player who we can control 3+ years, that gives us enough time to develop a player to fill that spot down the road. Anything less and the hole just comes right back around again.

 

You and I absolutely agree on how best to build a team and I agree with this philosophy. I typically enjoy the posts you make because they are well researched and informative. The issue I took with this one is the fact that it is implied that the Brewers didn't maximize their assets and the argument is based on speculation. The only asset that we have a firm report on (to my knowledge) that likely wasn't maximized was Lawrie when the reports of opposing GMs not knowing he was available surfaced. However, the other assets you mentioned, we had no clue as to what was offered.

 

The only way we as fans can judge trades is in hindsight. A perfect example is the JJ Hardy-Carlos Gomez trade, which I despised at the time. However, this is the perfect example of how hindsight gives us clarity on a deal as both players have thrived in different environments (granted Hardy's wasn't in Minnesota). Playing armchair GM in the moment is great for message boards, but in reality doesn't show the whole picture. If we know what all the options on the table are (i.e. what trade packages were offered for Lawrie, Escobar, Odorizzi, Jeffress, Brantley), it would be fair to say whether the Brewers maximized their assets' value. However, our only barometer as to the success of a deal as fans is hindsight.

 

Go Brewers

[Warning Track Power]

Good deal TLB...

 

Sorry about that. It took a long time to write the post and it didn't have a home after that thread got locked.

[HiAndTight]

Let's keep this on the Jeffress signing. If the discussion WTP picked back up wants to continue, we can make a thread to revisit the trade(s) in question.

 

I'm asking this out of curiosity and not trying to be difficult, but why was the other thread locked so quickly? I enjoy some of these conversations that begin kinda organically and lead to a deeper conversation or spout into a different discussion than exactly what the title of the thread discussed.

 

The Jeffress signing. How much is there to say about it?

 

The debate between WTP and Crew07 on the value of the trades we made involving Jeffress was a pretty interesting debate, but it fizzled out quickly because the other thread was locked so quickly.

[TooLiveBrew]

Let's keep this on the Jeffress signing. If the discussion WTP picked back up wants to continue, we can make a thread to revisit the trade(s) in question.

 

I'm asking this out of curiosity and not trying to be difficult, but why was the other thread locked so quickly? I enjoy some of these conversations that begin kinda organically and lead to a deeper conversation or spout into a different discussion than exactly what the title of the thread discussed.

I locked it once the signing was official & there was an MLB forum thread on it (which, to my understanding, is how things have always been done here on topics like this). I didn't put any more thought into it than that. I could re-create the thread in the MiLB forum at this point... last thing I wanted to do was stifle discussion.

[TooLiveBrew]

Good deal TLB...

 

Sorry about that. It took a long time to write the post and it didn't have a home after that thread got locked.

No worries, WTP. I missed this reply until now.

 

I should've paid better attention to that existing thread in the Transactions Forum. Hope this is a good solution.