Marco Estrada 2015 and beyond

[Roderick]

Agreed. I think there is a good chance that Estrada isn't tendered this off-season. He's been a nice little piece to our staff, but I think we have better options and enough depth that he's just not really worth 5-6 million.

 

This is kind of what gets me. No one is saying Estrada is a #1 or #2. But he has value, especially at only that estimated $5-6M. Among NL pitchers with at least 40 IP this year he is 45th in ERA, 21st in WHIP, 27th in QS%, 22nd in K/9. The low WHIP and high K/9 balance out the tendency to give up HRs, thus his ERA is accurate regarding his ability and he's right on the border of a #3/#4 starter. He was a 1.6 WAR pitcher last season only pitching ~130 innings with about the same numbers. At 180 innings, he's a 2.2 WAR player.

 

So what is 1 WAR worth in terms of salary? I seem to recall it being more than $5M, so he's worth more than $5M. If $5M is what he gets in arby, then he's a bargain and is worth something to someone. This is why I can't get behind letting him walk for nothing. If the depth is there, then get the $5/6M in arby and then trade him.

 

I agree with you LouisEly, Estrada will still have positive value after getting his arbitration amount next season. He may not be able to get you a premier prospect, but he can definitely get you something and I don't see how he would be non-tendered. I think my scenario would be to retain Estrada and hope that Gallardo pitches well enough that you could do the one year option and trade him for a little something. Freeing up a spot for Nelson and freeing up money.

[fondybrewfan]

The longer Nelson keeps hammering on the door at AAA the more I am convinced that Estrada will get traded in July. It would be weird to see a contending team trade away a solid starter but if you can replace him with Nelson while also hopefully filling a hole somewhere else you have to do it. Estrada by himself probably won't net an impact player but he could be part of a solid package.

 

Whoever would trade for Estrada this year might be a contending team as well so that would open the door to a lot more teams than a typically deadline deal between contending and selling teams. You never know; Melvin is known for pulling off big trades so I wouldn't put it past him at all.

[HiAndTight]

My main point is that there are [plenty of ways the Brewers could open up slots.

 

And I guess my main point is that if they didn't sign Garza not only would they not have to worry about opening up a spot in the rotation but they could have upgraded in other areas, namely first base or the bench. If they Brewers are still in it come July they are going to have to trade away some prospects to upgrade the bench.

 

 

First of all, since when has it become a problem to worry about having too many starting pitchers? Man, we signed one of the top FA pitchers on the market and we've had the good fortune to have our young pitchers continue to develop and pitch very well. This is hardly a problem, this is an enormous luxury, especially given the rotations we've had in the past.

 

As for using that money to upgrade 1st base or other positions, we tried. We offered Abreu a 6 year 60 million dollar deal and the Brewers have said they have the money to add players if they're competitive. So I don't think the Garza signing has hurt us.

 

Garza still has really good stuff, and has been a bit unlucky this year.

[HiAndTight]

Agreed. I think there is a good chance that Estrada isn't tendered this off-season. He's been a nice little piece to our staff, but I think we have better options and enough depth that he's just not really worth 5-6 million.

 

This is kind of what gets me. No one is saying Estrada is a #1 or #2. But he has value, especially at only that estimated $5-6M. Among NL pitchers with at least 40 IP this year he is 45th in ERA, 21st in WHIP, 27th in QS%, 22nd in K/9. The low WHIP and high K/9 balance out the tendency to give up HRs, thus his ERA is accurate regarding his ability and he's right on the border of a #3/#4 starter. He was a 1.6 WAR pitcher last season only pitching ~130 innings with about the same numbers. At 180 innings, he's a 2.2 WAR player.

 

So what is 1 WAR worth in terms of salary? I seem to recall it being more than $5M, so he's worth more than $5M. If $5M is what he gets in arby, then he's a bargain and is worth something to someone. This is why I can't get behind letting him walk for nothing. If the depth is there, then get the $5/6M in arby and then trade him.

 

 

At 180 innings pitching how he pitched last year maybe he would have been a 2.2 WAR player....but he didn't pitch 180 innings and never has.

 

This year he's got a 5.45 FIP and has a negative WAR(-.4). So if you want to extrapolate his WAR out last year, then this year he's on pace to be worth roughly -1 WAR.

 

But I guess it's a fundamental difference of opinion. I appreciate what he's done for the team given his limited ability, but he's gotten worse the last 3 years. And if you're another team looking at Estrada in the off-season(in season his value is higher) how much are you willing to pay for a guy with his track record even without having to give up a prospect in return?

[igor67]

I do think a trade would be unusual, but the signs are pointing to the fact that it could upgrade the quality of the rotation, and hopefully help out the offense a little as well. Crossing over it is a lot easier to imagine Estrada getting dealt than Gallardo. Gallardo has been a key figure for too long for him to be dealt even if it might save more money and bring a slightly better player.

[paul253]

This is hardly a problem, this is an enormous luxury, especially given the rotations we've had in the past.

 

Ok fine. It's a luxury. But you still have to do something.

[jackailius]

I don't know, I think that with there play towards the playoffs that keeping the starting rotation as is should be what happens rather than trading a piece off. You could start giving Nelson a start or two off in July and August so he can be fresh when the roster expands and then do the same for your starting five in the majors or work a 6 man rotation so that going into the playoffs everyone is fairly fresh... of course that is if there are no injuries (I'm looking at you Garza and Estrada) that require Nelson to be plugged in anyways. You can never have too much pitching, especially when we get to the playoffs.

 

That said it would be nice to be able to snap your fingers and have a big hitting lefty appear on the team.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't know, I think that with there play towards the playoffs that keeping the starting rotation as is should be what happens rather than trading a piece off. You could start giving Nelson a start or two off in July and August so he can be fresh when the roster expands and then do the same for your starting five in the majors or work a 6 man rotation so that going into the playoffs everyone is fairly fresh... of course that is if there are no injuries (I'm looking at you Garza and Estrada) that require Nelson to be plugged in anyways. You can never have too much pitching, especially when we get to the playoffs.

 

That said it would be nice to be able to snap your fingers and have a big hitting lefty appear on the team.

 

I don't know how much longer they can keep trotting out a guy who's on pace to allow 50 HR this season. Sure as 5th starters go, he's okay but the ante has been upped and there's this guy who's dominating AAA hitters with much better stuff. Estrada's trade value isn't much, so the move might be to the pen. Oh wait, they need a 25 man spot don't they?? Don't get me started on Wang.

[monty57]

This is hardly a problem, this is an enormous luxury, especially given the rotations we've had in the past.

 

Ok fine. It's a luxury. But you still have to do something.

 

Re: The old adage "you can never have too much pitching"

 

I'm sure the people of Huntsville loved having Taylor Jungmann back to start the season, and the people of Nashville love watching a rotation that is better than the Brewers have trotted out for much of their existence.

 

However, the Brewers are position-player thin throughout the organization, while their pitchers sit in the minors through their mid-20's, and if they ever get their chance it will be in a bullpen role or because of injury, as we have our entire MLB rotation under contract through at least next season. That's probably "too much pitching."

 

To point, happy 25th birthday Jimmy Nelson, born 6/5/1989. Hopefully when you celebrate your 27th birthday, it will be as a Brewer when they finally figure out their logjam. That you're probably better than at least half the pitchers toeing the mound at the MLB level doesn't matter, because you can "never have too much pitching." Jungmann will turn 25 in December. Fiers turns 29 in 10 days. Mills is already 29, and apparently we'll lose him soon if he isn't called up. Pena is 25. Blazek is 25. Hellweg will be 26 in October. Burgos will be 27 in August.

 

At the AA level, Suter will be 25 in August. Gagnon turns 24 this month. Cravy turns 25 next month. Hall turns 24 this month. Barnes is 24. Moye will be 27 in September.

 

Single A Brevard? Wagner is 23. Johnson is 23. Magnifico is 23. Bradley turns 24 next week. At least Lopez is only 21.

 

That's our minor league starting pitching. Granted most will never make the majors, but good God, our AA squad is probably older than some MLB staffs. Meanwhile, we're so thin with position players that we've watched Overbay and Reynolds play nearly everyday at the MLB level with retreads like Bianchi, Falu and Herrera getting too many PAs off the bench.

 

Edit: The headline on milwaukeebrewers.com is "Pitching pool catches Crew's eye entering draft." Where the heck are we going to put them? Rookie ball for the next few seasons?

[HiAndTight]

This is hardly a problem, this is an enormous luxury, especially given the rotations we've had in the past.

 

Ok fine. It's a luxury. But you still have to do something.

 

Re: The old adage "you can never have too much pitching"

 

I'm sure the people of Huntsville loved having Taylor Jungmann back to start the season, and the people of Nashville love watching a rotation that is better than the Brewers have trotted out for much of their existence.

 

However, the Brewers are position-player thin throughout the organization, while their pitchers sit in the minors through their mid-20's, and if they ever get their chance it will be in a bullpen role or because of injury, as we have our entire MLB rotation under contract through at least next season. That's probably "too much pitching."

 

To point, happy 25th birthday Jimmy Nelson, born 6/5/1989. Hopefully when you celebrate your 27th birthday, it will be as a Brewer when they finally figure out their logjam. That you're probably better than at least half the pitchers toeing the mound at the MLB level doesn't matter, because you can "never have too much pitching." Jungmann will turn 25 in December. Fiers turns 29 in 10 days. Mills is already 29, and apparently we'll lose him soon if he isn't called up. Pena is 25. Blazek is 25. Hellweg will be 26 in October. Burgos will be 27 in August.

 

At the AA level, Suter will be 25 in August. Gagnon turns 24 this month. Cravy turns 25 next month. Hall turns 24 this month. Barnes is 24. Moye will be 27 in September.

 

Single A Brevard? Wagner is 23. Johnson is 23. Magnifico is 23. Bradley turns 24 next week. At least Lopez is only 21.

 

That's our minor league starting pitching. Granted most will never make the majors, but good God, our AA squad is probably older than some MLB staffs. Meanwhile, we're so thin with position players that we've watched Overbay and Reynolds play nearly everyday at the MLB level with retreads like Bianchi, Falu and Herrera getting too many PAs off the bench.

 

Edit: The headline on milwaukeebrewers.com is "Pitching pool catches Crew's eye entering draft." Where the heck are we going to put them? Rookie ball for the next few seasons?

 

 

There is only ONE pitcher in that entire group though that has forced the issue and he just turned 25 years old and will almost certainly be up this year and starting next year. Again, I hate guaranteeing things in such a volatile game, but I can pretty much gurantee that if Nelson continues pitching well, there is no worry he's going to be pitching in AAA at the age of 27.

Plus, while many of the pitchers you're mentioning are pitching well, not one of them has really been "held back." Nelson has the unfortunate bad luck of pitching in a system that has a very solid big league rotation in front of him, but this is the same guy who sported a BB/9 of 5.4 last year in AAA. I could go down the list with nearly every one of these guys. Jungman hasn't kicked down any doors, nor has Bradley to this point.

Pena-25 years old, but his command is SO incredibly erratic, what are we supposed to do?

Hellweg, command has been equally poor, but he's also gone under the knife now for TJ.

Mills-He was a minor league free agent.

Fiers is 28 and was given a shot a couple of years ago and didn't seize it.

 

 

I like a lot of these guys, I really do. But we're not talking about a group of elite, dominant young starting pitchers who haven't gotten the promotions they deserve over the last couple years forcing them to toil away in obscurity down in the minors. And I'm not sure what solution you could offer to this would be? Should we have a age deadline in which we have to call a guy up by or move them to another organization? Obviously this isn't what you're suggesting.

 

 

And finally, I believe the comment about the lack of position players is a false equivalency. We're not lacking young talented position players BECAUSE we've got these pitchers who have created this logjam, we're lacking young talented position players because the position players haven't played as well as the pitchers. You have two guys on this list who are 1st round picks and both have had ample reasons to be held back(yet neither have really moved that slowly). So you could argue we should have drafted position players I supposed, but at the time pitching was a big need.

But who among these pitchers that you've mentioned are highly regarded enough to bring back the position players we need? Nelson is likely untouchable, and you'd have to get a really nice offer to trade Fiers at this point. But Mills, Bradley, Jungman, all these guys just aren't the type of pitchers you target. They're the type of pitchers you keep in your system and hope they develop.

[HiAndTight]

This is hardly a problem, this is an enormous luxury, especially given the rotations we've had in the past.

 

Ok fine. It's a luxury. But you still have to do something.

 

 

I think they should do something. But I also think it's just as likely something will be done TO them that will force their decision(which is why you want starting pitching depth to begin with).

 

Lets say someone goes down with an injury, you bring up Nelson and your left with just Fiers as your pitching depth. And "just," is no knock on Fiers, I simply mean you only have one guy you can reasonably count on to pitch effectively. Given the history and age of this staff, it was a overwhelmingly good bet you were going to need a 6th and likely 7th, even an 8th starting pitcher at some point in this year. And we're only a third of the way through the season.

 

I also agree that Nelson is being "wasted," in some respect down in AAA, but he's also down there refining his changeup, the pitch that could help him become a legit #2 starting pitcher in the big leagues. That's a luxury most pitchers of Nelson's caliber don't often get.

 

 

Either way, I really like Garza, I think he's a much better pitcher than his numbers thus far indicate, and I think we're going to be happy we signed him provided he's reasonably healthy over the next 4 years. I don't think his signing has caused us any problems and I don't think it stopped them from signing anyone else they were really interested in because they signed him later on, and they were still aggressive in trying to sign Abreu in the 6/60 type range.

[monty57]

H&T, I wasn't really suggesting anything. It's just that much like people throw around a lot of adages, people throw around the phrase "you can never have enough pitching." That got me looking at the pitching we have, and realizing that we have a glut of (relative to their level) old pitchers in the minors. That could be a "luxury," but there could also be negatives, such as the possibilty of holding back the more talented pitchers, who may not get moved through the system as quickly as they should.

 

It does bring up the question of why we continue to sign MLB free agents when we have this glut, but whatever the plan, we really have to look at how to thin out the ranks of "MLB ready" starting pitching. This could be done by non-tendering Estrada (as at least one poster suggested), or not picking up Gallardo's option. However, I like getting value from value, so I would rather see us use some SP in trade to get back some much-needed position player talent.

 

Again, looking at our system, it seems to be more of a question of "when" than "if." It also begs the question of whether we will trade from our MLB ranks or from the minors. To me, the most probable scenario seems to be some of our "2nd tier" guys (not Nelson or Thornburg) traded this season for "rental" MLB help, and Estrada traded this offseason. That would allow some mid-season promotions in the minors, and allow for Nelson to start next season in the MLB rotation.

[JohnBriggs12]

H&T, I wasn't really suggesting anything. It's just that much like people throw around a lot of adages, people throw around the phrase "you can never have enough pitching." That got me looking at the pitching we have, and realizing that we have a glut of (relative to their level) old pitchers in the minors. That could be a "luxury," but there could also be negatives, such as the possibilty of holding back the more talented pitchers, who may not get moved through the system as quickly as they should.

 

It does bring up the question of why we continue to sign MLB free agents when we have this glut, but whatever the plan, we really have to look at how to thin out the ranks of "MLB ready" starting pitching. This could be done by non-tendering Estrada (as at least one poster suggested), or not picking up Gallardo's option. However, I like getting value from value, so I would rather see us use some SP in trade to get back some much-needed position player talent.

 

Again, looking at our system, it seems to be more of a question of "when" than "if." It also begs the question of whether we will trade from our MLB ranks or from the minors. To me, the most probable scenario seems to be some of our "2nd tier" guys (not Nelson or Thornburg) traded this season for "rental" MLB help, and Estrada traded this offseason. That would allow some mid-season promotions in the minors, and allow for Nelson to start next season in the MLB rotation.

 

While I agree with many of your points, assuming you can get much value back for Estrada in a trade this winter is stretch if he continues to muddle along with a 4+ ERA and ends up allowing 35-40 HR. He is a decent back end of the rotation starter and teams often do look for veterans to fill that role, but they want them on the cheap. Estrada will likely get $5 million or so in arbitration and while that won't break the bank for any team, there will be comparable guys out there at that price that won't require surrendering any talent in return.

[monty57]

Agree Briggs, although I believe Estrada will put up better numbers than he's currently showing. Players generally end up somewhere around their talent-level, so just like I didn't believe the rest of the staff would continue to put up the Cy Young numbers they started with, I think Estrada will pitch better going forward.

 

I doubt the Brewers will be "ballsy" enough to trade away someone from their MLB rotation mid-season, but they have to do something next offseason. Estrada seems the most likely guy to go. If all he brings back is a decent-upside guy in the low minors, so be it. Hopefully he'll get more than that, but who knows how the next few months will pan out.

[HiAndTight]

H&T, I wasn't really suggesting anything. It's just that much like people throw around a lot of adages, people throw around the phrase "you can never have enough pitching." That got me looking at the pitching we have, and realizing that we have a glut of (relative to their level) old pitchers in the minors. That could be a "luxury," but there could also be negatives, such as the possibilty of holding back the more talented pitchers, who may not get moved through the system as quickly as they should.

 

It does bring up the question of why we continue to sign MLB free agents when we have this glut, but whatever the plan, we really have to look at how to thin out the ranks of "MLB ready" starting pitching. This could be done by non-tendering Estrada (as at least one poster suggested), or not picking up Gallardo's option. However, I like getting value from value, so I would rather see us use some SP in trade to get back some much-needed position player talent.

 

Again, looking at our system, it seems to be more of a question of "when" than "if." It also begs the question of whether we will trade from our MLB ranks or from the minors. To me, the most probable scenario seems to be some of our "2nd tier" guys (not Nelson or Thornburg) traded this season for "rental" MLB help, and Estrada traded this offseason. That would allow some mid-season promotions in the minors, and allow for Nelson to start next season in the MLB rotation.

 

 

Well, I get what you're saying, but when people use the cliche you can never have enough pitching, I think they're referring to....well, for lack of a better way of articulating it, really good pitching. Power pitching, high ceiling talented arms. Not just bodies who can be 4 or 5's. Which I think is what we truly have an excess of right now(and I'm not even sure it's that much of an "excess," either. Obviously cheap back of the rotation pitchers are valuable, but a lot of them, you don't know if they will ever make a big league staff. I certainly don't think it's a given that Pena, Hellweg, Bradley make a big league staff.

 

I do believe someone like Gallardo has trade value in a trade if he pitches close to how he's pitched over his career. I'd trade him before declining his option. And I was one of the posters who mentioned not tendering Estrada. I do believe he's a solid back of the rotation type guy, but I don't think those types are all that hard to come by, and we can do better than him right now.

[ebmackenzie]

For now, especially in light of the bullpen's overworked series in NY, any chance that Kintzler gets sent to AAA with his last option, Nelson comes up, and Estrada moves to the 'pen? Add Thornburg for Fiers and Gorz for Wang and that is a team...

[HiAndTight]

For now, especially in light of the bullpen's overworked series in NY, any chance that Kintzler gets sent to AAA with his last option, Nelson comes up, and Estrada moves to the 'pen? Add Thornburg for Fiers and Gorz for Wang and that is a team...

 

I don't think Kintlzer gets sent down. He's a guy that we have to get back to pitching like he did last year in order for our BP to really round into shape. He was a really good SU man for us last year.

Fiers is a fresh arm in the pen and can go multiple innings, so I don't think it makes any sense to send him down.

We don't know what is wrong with Thornburg yet exactly. Hopefully it's not serious, but anytime a guy has pain in his elbow and starts to lose his command a bit, you have to be worried.

And Wang isn't going to get sent down. He can't. I still think the most likely scenario is he gets sent to the DL.

Plus, the Brewers SEEM to be leaning toward putting Gorz back on the 15 day DL as his velocity has been up and down in his rehab stints. We'll fine out in the next couple days.

 

But with with Thornburg and Gorz likely not being available for the Cincy series, your options are kinda limited.

Plus, despite the fact that we had a 13 inning game vs the Mets, the workload was pretty spread out vs the Mets, and our BP was given a break during the Pirates series.

Mets Series

Game 1 Fiers 1 IP 21 pitches

Duke 1 IP 6 pitches

Game 2 Duke .1 IP 3 pitches

Wooten .1IP 2 pitches

Smith 1 IP 14 pitches

K-Rod 1 IP 16 pitches

Game 3 Smith 1 IP 21 pitches

Kintzler 2 IP 40 pitches

Duke 1 IP 11 pitches

K-Rod 1 IP 8 pitches

 

Kintzler may not be available vs the Reds and Smith could use a day off, but K-Rod has a rubber arm, and Wooten, Duke, and especially Fiers should be just fine, and Smith could be brought in for a couple left handers.

 

A perfect scenario would be Wang to the DL(he did just get hit with a baseball, so maybe he has a painful bone bruise ...that forces him to the DL. I'd certainly prefer to see Nelson come up and take Estrada's spot and Estrada become the long man, but I think Estrada gets another 3-4 starts to try and right the ship before Nelson is brought up. Plus we have to worry about Nelson being a super 2. So I don't know if he gets the nod until...what is it, mid July?

 

 

How about Jeremy Jeffress getting another shot. He's throwing the ball well down in AAA. He has a fresh arm as does Fiers. That should provide you more than enough to cover any innings you need, be it from short starts or just regular BP usage. But I think they'll be fine either way.

[adambr2]

I'd like to update what I now think Marco Estrada could net us in a trade. I would have to say it falls somewhere between $1 and Maxim Saint Pierre.