Marco Estrada 2015 and beyond

[JohnBriggs12]

Do you want to pay $5-6 million, which he figures to get in final arby year, for a serviceable back end of the rotation arm, or pay $500K for a pre-arby arm with more upside? You can always find 5th starters cheap if you need them. Braves got Harang for $1 million.

 

Brewers will face decision on whether even to tender Estrada this winter. Why not look to see what he brings?

[paul253]

I am really curious to see what happens with our rotation next season. It would seem like common sense that they make a trade or two but trading starting pitchers isn't Melvin's M.O. unless they are about to hit free agency which none of our guys are. I really think Melvin blew it by signing Garza. We just didn't need him and now with how well guys like Fiers, Nelson are pitching in the minors and Thornburg and Smith in the bullpen there is a real logjam of guys who should at least have a shot at the rotation next season. I'd really like to believe either Lohse or Estrada or both will be traded in the offseason to free up a spot for Nelson and one of Fiers/Thornburg/Smith but until it happens I won't expect it.

[fondybrewfan]

The way Lohse has pitched I don't think there is anyway he gets traded. He has been great for the Brewers. Estrada, at least to me, seems the most logical trade candidate either at the trading deadline or this offseason.

 

I am still Ok with the Garza signing despite the poor start. I think we all thought Nelson would be pretty good but I am glad he has been able to have success at AAA. No one could have expected Fiers to do anything year. I guess Smith or Thornburg would have made the rotation, absent Garza, and who really knows what kind of effect that would have had.

[danzig6767]

I am really curious to see what happens with our rotation next season. It would seem like common sense that they make a trade or two but trading starting pitchers isn't Melvin's M.O. unless they are about to hit free agency which none of our guys are. I really think Melvin blew it by signing Garza. We just didn't need him and now with how well guys like Fiers, Nelson are pitching in the minors and Thornburg and Smith in the bullpen there is a real logjam of guys who should at least have a shot at the rotation next season. I'd really like to believe either Lohse or Estrada or both will be traded in the offseason to free up a spot for Nelson and one of Fiers/Thornburg/Smith but until it happens I won't expect it.

 

Was Melvin the main driver in signing Garza or Attanasio?

 

After Garza was signed, Attanasio did an interview where he discussed the signing. He mentioned himself having about 20 separate discussions over a month or two with Garza's agent before getting the deal done. I think it's safe to assume that as Attanasio was having these discussions with Garza's agent that he was also talking with Melvin, but in general i'd love to know just exactly how the process has been over the years when it's come to the major free agent signings and Attanasio's involvement?

 

Herb Kohl was notorious for being heavily involved with major decisions the Bucks made or didn't make over the years running the Bucks, along with foolishly demanding his GM's never fully rebuild with youth. In Green Bay, Wolf and Thompson were largely granted free reign to do as these pleased as GM with little to no involvement from Harlan and now Murphy. For some reason though, no Brewers beat writer has ever seemed to try and delve deeply into the Attanasio dynamic as owner in regards to just how much influence he wields from year to year on both major roster decisions and overall philosophy as to whether say maybe in a given year should the team try going younger? I think it would be very very interesting to get an inside view on just how exactly things play out with Attanasio and Melvin.

 

Do they always come to a consensus before a major decision is made? What happens if they disagree, be it a minor disagreement or a sizable one? Does Attanasio negotiate contracts with free agents on his own, inform Melvin what the amount is for, and then ask for an opinion given how often Mark mentions talking with agents after signings? I find this dynamic fascinating given it's so unknown. Then again, they may not answer questions about this.

 

As for this offseason, i do think the odds are decent Marco will be shopped and traded to make room for Nelson. Don't see any chance Lohse is though.

[paul253]

Was Melvin the main driver in signing Garza or Attanasio?

That's a good point. I didn't like the signing, no matter who was most responsible for it. If Mark A. was the main driver I'll be a little disappointed. I get that he's the owner and all but he's not the baseball guy. He pays the baseball guys who likely know a lot more about the game than he does. If it were a one or even a two year deal I guess I'd be fine with it. But 4 years? That's really going to hamstring the rotation options for a long time. And the fact that Garza's numbers are pretty bad doesn't help.

[reillymcshane]

Pitching depth can evaporate pretty quickly. I'm not defending the Garza signing, but I understand it. Last season we gave 38 starts to Figaro, Gorzelanny, Fiers, Hellweg and Burgos. Garza's history suggests he'll get better. No guarantee, but his past success is a good sign.

 

When I saw Miami trotting out Randy Wolf the other night, I just smiled. The depth we have is awesome.

[dacbrewers]

Was Melvin the main driver in signing Garza or Attanasio?

That's a good point. I didn't like the signing, no matter who was most responsible for it. If Mark A. was the main driver I'll be a little disappointed. I get that he's the owner and all but he's not the baseball guy. He pays the baseball guys who likely know a lot more about the game than he does. If it were a one or even a two year deal I guess I'd be fine with it. But 4 years? That's really going to hamstring the rotation options for a long time. And the fact that Garza's numbers are pretty bad doesn't help.

 

I agree with you on the Garza signing. I didn't like it. It was a waste of money in my opinion and the money could of been spent better. Thornburg can start. Nelson can start. Fiers can start. Obviously they didn't know Fiers would be having a great year, but why spend on Garza when you have two better options for a lower cost? I'm stumped at the reasoning for signing him.

[paul253]

Pitching depth can evaporate pretty quickly. I'm not defending the Garza signing, but I understand it.

 

That's true but you can always sign a guy or two for depth in need be. You don't have to have 8 pitchers with #4-#5 potential. But as a depth goes, before the year they had Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Estrada, Thornburg and Nelson all capable of being in the rotation. That's 6. Will Smith could have been an emergency option as well. At the time Hellweg was healthy and even though he wasn't the best option he was an option if you really needed an 8th starting pitcher. You also new Fiers was coming back. That's 9 guys who have started major league games. I think we were a lot deeper than we have been in the past. The signing was completely unnecessary and it pretty much forces as move in the upcoming offseason. You cannot put Nelson in the bullpen or in Nashville again.

[endaround]

Pitching depth can evaporate pretty quickly. I'm not defending the Garza signing, but I understand it.

 

That's true but you can always sign a guy or two for depth in need be. You don't have to have 8 pitchers with #4-#5 potential. But as a depth goes, before the year they had Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Estrada, Thornburg and Nelson all capable of being in the rotation. That's 6. Will Smith could have been an emergency option as well. At the time Hellweg was healthy and even though he wasn't the best option he was an option if you really needed an 8th starting pitcher. You also new Fiers was coming back. That's 9 guys who have started major league games. I think we were a lot deeper than we have been in the past. The signing was completely unnecessary and it pretty much forces as move in the upcoming offseason. You cannot put Nelson in the bullpen or in Nashville again.

 

Gallardo--coming off an injury filled year that was mediocre at best (the secret is that he's been worse this year)

 

Lohse--Just turned 35

 

Peralta--Coming off a poor season

 

Estrada--Constant health concerns

 

Thornburg--7 starts with an xFIP of 4.43 in 2013 at MLB , a fairly poor showing in AAA and questions about whether he has the body to start in MLB (seems to have started to tire right now)

 

Nelson--Terribly wild in his first time in AAA in 2013

 

Hellweg--Had no control.

 

Fiers--Huge questions about him being able to have his stuff work at the major league level over time.

[paul253]

Gallardo--coming off an injury filled year that was mediocre at best (the secret is that he's been worse this year)

Definitely coming off a down year but he pitched 180 innings over 31 starts. He also didn't get a usual spring training routine because of the WBC.

Lohse--Just turned 35

 

So? It's ok to rely on him at 34 but once he turns 35 we need a backup plan?

 

Peralta--Coming off a poor season

 

A poor first half. An incredible second half.

Thornburg--7 starts with an xFIP of 4.43 in 2013 at MLB , a fairly poor showing in AAA and questions about whether he has the body to start in MLB (seems to have started to tire right now)

 

A fairly poor showing for the first time in his career that he pretty much silenced in his time in the majors, especially when he was starting. And seriously, questions about his body? If that is a reason not to start then everyone on the staff should be fired. Forget the results over his entire minor league and brief major league career. We don't think his body is cut out to be a starter. Come on. And the fact that he is tiring now may be because he's pitching in relief for the first time in his career and may not be used to pitching so often. He was used A LOT early on.

 

Nelson--Terribly wild in his first time in AAA in 2013

 

Maybe in Nashville but if you include his time in Huntsville his walks/innings pitched rate was lower in 2013 then it was any season prior. His K rate was also higher than any season other than his brief 26 inning stint in Wisconsin in 2010.

 

Hellweg--Had no control.

 

True, but he's essentially your 8th option.

Fiers--Huge questions about him being able to have his stuff work at the major league level over time.

 

Again, true, but he's also an emergency option. If you are going 7 or 8 deep for an extended period of time your season is probably lost anyway.

 

There was also Will Smith who admittedly struggled as a starter but still has a lot of potential. That's 9 options for your 5 man rotation although I think realistically they could have counted on 6 solid starters (Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Estrada, Thornburg and Nelson). And my beef is not necessarily that Garza was signed. It was that he was signed for 4 years. I see no reason they needed to do that

[TooLiveBrew]

Gallardo--coming off an injury filled year that was mediocre at best (the secret is that he's been worse this year)

 

Lohse--Just turned 35

 

Peralta--Coming off a poor season

 

Thornburg--7 starts with an xFIP of 4.43 in 2013 at MLB , a fairly poor showing in AAA and questions about whether he has the body to start in MLB (seems to have started to tire right now)

 

Nelson--Terribly wild in his first time in AAA in 2013

 

All Brewers Pitchers -- ignore anything based in real-world observation, assume worst case scenario... all hope is lost

[danzig6767]

Was Melvin the main driver in signing Garza or Attanasio?

That's a good point. I didn't like the signing, no matter who was most responsible for it. If Mark A. was the main driver I'll be a little disappointed. I get that he's the owner and all but he's not the baseball guy. He pays the baseball guys who likely know a lot more about the game than he does. If it were a one or even a two year deal I guess I'd be fine with it. But 4 years? That's really going to hamstring the rotation options for a long time. And the fact that Garza's numbers are pretty bad doesn't help.

 

Only if Garza continues to pitch poorly. If instead he rebounds and puts up solid numbers in the future, his contract would be easily tradable as salary inflation continues to rise so much and even more so if say he only had two years left on his contract. Then again, that would make it less likely the Brewers would trade him a year or two from now.

[brewcrewdue80]

Garza's contract is still a very good contract imo. It's 4years with a 5th option. What pitchers remain 2 years from now on our staff? The only one for sure is Peralta. Nelson you hope. Jungmann you hope. But Lohse, Gallardo, and our topic man Estrada will be gone barring extensions.

The results haven't been fantastic by Garza but maybe the manager doesn't know how to take the ball away from Garza seeing signs Garza is spent. Garza's last two starts he was cruising through 6 vs. Atl, and had pitched very well through 6 vs Bal. The Atlanta fiasco happened in a game I would have rather seen Garza get himself out of it and instead he had 2 inherited runs allowed tacked on to his line. The Baltimore game signs to me he was wearing out, struggling making his pitches, Roenicke instead left him in and he gave up a 3run HR. I honestly think Garza is close to being what we paid for. He'll clean up some of his mistakes/ be managed better and settle in to an under 4ERA give you 6+ip pitcher.

 

As for the bolded part in the previous reply, Paul, you feel Garza will hamstring the Rotation options? I don't. I think Garza opens up the Rotation options. Now Gallardo/Estrada or maybe even Lohse are tradeable. Garza has pitched in the 7th inning (with one in the 8th) 6 of 11 starts. You need pitchers who can go more than 18outs on your staff. Gallardo has pitched in to the 7th inning 4 times but only once did he complete that 7th inning. If we can pick up Gallardo's option then trade him? I'm not going be disappointed with that move because we have Garza. Also the concern of it being one or two years, Garza has had injury issues of late, you sign that 2 year deal, Garza misses 25 starts you really wind up with a deal that you paid too much for. At least with these 4years plus the injury option, Garza can go through an injury and you still get your money's worth if not more in production.

Nelson needed more time in AAA vs. getting the rotation spot. Gallardo/Estrada/Garza all had injuries last season. Looking how our pitching has performed vs. Garza's line and how well Nelson has developed it's easy to claim the Garza signing hamstrings our rotation options. But if Nelson was wild in AAA, Estrada failed/got injured along with Gallardo/Thornburg and Smith doing badly with rotation spots, we'd be standing here saying all it would have taken was signing Garza to a 4year 50mil deal to avoid that predictable outcome!

 

I'll take what we have currently. A solid 5man rotation with a 6th in waiting. And 2 starters who are in the Bullpen whose stuff plays up to being quite dominant bullpen cogs. We're 32-22 and I don't see this team's weakness if healthy to worry about one phase of the team failing to see through to a 90win season. The pitching is there, the hitting is there, the bullpen is there. It's awesome to not stress out about the bullpen or the lack of pitching finally.

[HiAndTight]

Done Pitchers seem to bottom out around 87-89 when they lose their original FB velocity? So Estrada has gone from 91 to 88. Will he continue on to 85-86 in a year or two? Or am I right that the drop in velocity settles at the 87-89 range?

 

I would guess it varies from pitcher to pitcher. If a pitcher drops to 86-87 which Estrada would do if he continues on the pace he's on, they often end up out of the league.

 

 

Do you want to pay $5-6 million, which he figures to get in final arby year, for a serviceable back end of the rotation arm, or pay $500K for a pre-arby arm with more upside? You can always find 5th starters cheap if you need them. Braves got Harang for $1 million.

 

Brewers will face decision on whether even to tender Estrada this winter. Why not look to see what he brings?

 

Agreed. I think there is a good chance that Estrada isn't tendered this off-season. He's been a nice little piece to our staff, but I think we have better options and enough depth that he's just not really worth 5-6 million.

 

Garza's contract is still a very good contract imo. It's 4years with a 5th option. What pitchers remain 2 years from now on our staff? The only one for sure is Peralta. Nelson you hope. Jungmann you hope. But Lohse, Gallardo, and our topic man Estrada will be gone barring extensions.

The results haven't been fantastic by Garza but maybe the manager doesn't know how to take the ball away from Garza seeing signs Garza is spent. Garza's last two starts he was cruising through 6 vs. Atl, and had pitched very well through 6 vs Bal. The Atlanta fiasco happened in a game I would have rather seen Garza get himself out of it and instead he had 2 inherited runs allowed tacked on to his line. The Baltimore game signs to me he was wearing out, struggling making his pitches, Roenicke instead left him in and he gave up a 3run HR. I honestly think Garza is close to being what we paid for. He'll clean up some of his mistakes/ be managed better and settle in to an under 4ERA give you 6+ip pitcher.

 

I have no problem with signing Garza. Endaround is right. We weren't certain what we'd get from Nelson, Thornburg, Gallardo, there were a lot of question marks coming into this year that look pretty good so far this year, but we had no idea about going into this year.

 

But Brewcrewdude, I think you just pointed out how Roenicke just can't win. He lets Garza stay in to try and get one more hitter. It doesn't work out so he left him in too long.

He takes Garza out and he should have left him in there. Vs Baltimore he was at 115 pitches, but he was facing the #8 hitter, and he still had his velocity. He was throwing 94-95. And the thought was(IIRC) his spot was coming up next inning, so you have to burn up either two relievers, or take out a position player. He did end up having to double switch taking Maldy out of the game for Overbay, but I understand the logic.

 

 

But aside from that, I agree. Garza still has an FIP under 4.00, he's throwing the ball fairly well, he's just struggling with the big inning and his command a bit. I thought coming into the year he was the best pitcher on the staff. I'm not going to completely change my mind this early. Though Lohse is again pitching very well.

[HiAndTight]

Pitching depth can evaporate pretty quickly. I'm not defending the Garza signing, but I understand it.

 

That's true but you can always sign a guy or two for depth in need be. You don't have to have 8 pitchers with #4-#5 potential. But as a depth goes, before the year they had Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Estrada, Thornburg and Nelson all capable of being in the rotation. That's 6. Will Smith could have been an emergency option as well. At the time Hellweg was healthy and even though he wasn't the best option he was an option if you really needed an 8th starting pitcher. You also new Fiers was coming back. That's 9 guys who have started major league games. I think we were a lot deeper than we have been in the past. The signing was completely unnecessary and it pretty much forces as move in the upcoming offseason. You cannot put Nelson in the bullpen or in Nashville again.

 

Gallardo--coming off an injury filled year that was mediocre at best (the secret is that he's been worse this year)

 

Lohse--Just turned 35

 

Peralta--Coming off a poor season

 

Estrada--Constant health concerns

 

Thornburg--7 starts with an xFIP of 4.43 in 2013 at MLB , a fairly poor showing in AAA and questions about whether he has the body to start in MLB (seems to have started to tire right now)

 

Nelson--Terribly wild in his first time in AAA in 2013

 

Hellweg--Had no control.

 

Fiers--Huge questions about him being able to have his stuff work at the major league level over time.

 

I would argue that Peralta was coming off a poor season given his age and how he improved, but if you look at the end of the last couple of years, we pitched really well down the stretch, particularly young pitchers and then those guys when counted on struggled.

 

These were all extremely valid concerns at the time, Garza became available at a cheaper price than I think many anticipated and we signed him. I don't expect 800 innings over the next 4 years, but he did give us options. Nelson has continued to develop, Fiers has bounced back. Pitchers throughout the system are having success at their levels and are being brought along at a relatively slow pace.

 

 

And for the record, there are still questions about how good Fiers will be at a big league pitcher, Peralta looks good, but it's still just May, Lohse didn't go Benjamin Button on us, Hellweg remained extremely wild before TJ, Gallardo is not the same pitcher he was, Estrada IMO isn't that good, and Thornburg....well, his body IS still a concern. Until he can prove he can stand up to the rigors of a 162 game schedule as a starting pitcher, those questions will remain.

[LouisEly]

Agreed. I think there is a good chance that Estrada isn't tendered this off-season. He's been a nice little piece to our staff, but I think we have better options and enough depth that he's just not really worth 5-6 million.

 

This is kind of what gets me. No one is saying Estrada is a #1 or #2. But he has value, especially at only that estimated $5-6M. Among NL pitchers with at least 40 IP this year he is 45th in ERA, 21st in WHIP, 27th in QS%, 22nd in K/9. The low WHIP and high K/9 balance out the tendency to give up HRs, thus his ERA is accurate regarding his ability and he's right on the border of a #3/#4 starter. He was a 1.6 WAR pitcher last season only pitching ~130 innings with about the same numbers. At 180 innings, he's a 2.2 WAR player.

 

So what is 1 WAR worth in terms of salary? I seem to recall it being more than $5M, so he's worth more than $5M. If $5M is what he gets in arby, then he's a bargain and is worth something to someone. This is why I can't get behind letting him walk for nothing. If the depth is there, then get the $5/6M in arby and then trade him.

[paul253]

Nelson has continued to develop, Fiers has bounced back. Pitchers throughout the system are having success at their levels and are being brought along at a relatively slow pace.

 

Right and now because we gave Garza four years someone will have to be moved in order to get Nelson a shot. I think a smarter move would have been to offer Garza a one year deal (maybe $14 million) to buy a year of development for everyone else. Then at the end of this year, depending on well Garza pitched, you could have either offered him a QO or simply let him walk.

[nate82]

Nelson has continued to develop, Fiers has bounced back. Pitchers throughout the system are having success at their levels and are being brought along at a relatively slow pace.

 

Right and now because we gave Garza four years someone will have to be moved in order to get Nelson a shot. I think a smarter move would have been to offer Garza a one year deal (maybe $14 million) to buy a year of development for everyone else. Then at the end of this year, depending on well Garza pitched, you could have either offered him a QO or simply let him walk.

 

I would rather have Garza long term than Gallardo. Fiers is a #5 pitcher at best and is probably more along the lines of a long reliever. While he is having success at AAA I am not all that impressed by it. Yes he has a low ERA blah blah blah blah blah blah the fact still remains is that he is a control pitcher with no plus anything. I would rather trade Fiers and Estrada in the off season or even at that the deadline to create room for Nelson. Both Fiers and Estrada are expandable and I would rather have Garza over both of them.

[Warning Track Power]

I would rather have Garza long term than Gallardo. Fiers is a #5 pitcher at best and is probably more along the lines of a long reliever. While he is having success at AAA I am not all that impressed by it. Yes he has a low ERA blah blah blah blah blah blah the fact still remains is that he is a control pitcher with no plus anything. I would rather trade Fiers and Estrada in the off season or even at that the deadline to create room for Nelson. Both Fiers and Estrada are expandable and I would rather have Garza over both of them.

Yes to all of this except dealing both of these guys. Dealing Estrada to fill a hole at 3B this season or in the offseason is the route to go. Even if Marco goes elsewhere and performs, he simply isn't someone the Brewers should entertain locking into a long term deal. Keeping Fiers for depth is ok though as I don't see a equal return to the depth of having him in the event Nelson fails his first full time up in MLB.

[endaround]

Nelson has continued to develop, Fiers has bounced back. Pitchers throughout the system are having success at their levels and are being brought along at a relatively slow pace.

 

Right and now because we gave Garza four years someone will have to be moved in order to get Nelson a shot. I think a smarter move would have been to offer Garza a one year deal (maybe $14 million) to buy a year of development for everyone else. Then at the end of this year, depending on well Garza pitched, you could have either offered him a QO or simply let him walk.

 

Garza was not signing a 1 year deal.

 

You want to make room for Nelson? Don't pick up Gallardo's expensive option.

[danzig6767]

Nelson has continued to develop, Fiers has bounced back. Pitchers throughout the system are having success at their levels and are being brought along at a relatively slow pace.

 

Right and now because we gave Garza four years someone will have to be moved in order to get Nelson a shot. I think a smarter move would have been to offer Garza a one year deal (maybe $14 million) to buy a year of development for everyone else. Then at the end of this year, depending on well Garza pitched, you could have either offered him a QO or simply let him walk.

 

Garza was not signing a 1 year deal.

 

You want to make room for Nelson? Don't pick up Gallardo's expensive option.

 

Or trade Estrada.

 

If though Gallardo has a pretty good year and Estrada stays healthy, it might be best to pick up Gallardo's option and then trade him to make room for Nelson. I think you could then find a taker at one year 13 million and no draft pick compensation attached so long as he has a say sub-4.00 ERA season this year.

[endaround]

Nelson has continued to develop, Fiers has bounced back. Pitchers throughout the system are having success at their levels and are being brought along at a relatively slow pace.

 

Right and now because we gave Garza four years someone will have to be moved in order to get Nelson a shot. I think a smarter move would have been to offer Garza a one year deal (maybe $14 million) to buy a year of development for everyone else. Then at the end of this year, depending on well Garza pitched, you could have either offered him a QO or simply let him walk.

 

Garza was not signing a 1 year deal.

 

You want to make room for Nelson? Don't pick up Gallardo's expensive option.

 

Or trade Estrada.

 

If though Gallardo has a pretty good year and Estrada stays healthy, it might be best to pick up Gallardo's option and then trade him to make room for Nelson. I think you could then find a taker at one year 13 million and no draft pick compensation attached so long as he has a say sub-4.00 ERA season this year.

 

My main point is that there are [plenty of ways the Brewers could open up slots.

 

I think you'll have trouble trading Gallardo at $13.5 million if his K rate doesn't improve.

[danzig6767]

 

My main point is that there are [plenty of ways the Brewers could open up slots.

 

I think you'll have trouble trading Gallardo at $13.5 million if his K rate doesn't improve.

 

In today's economics, i think there would be multiple teams who would take Gallardo on only a one year deal at 13 million if he finishes this year with an ERA in say the 3.50-3.75 range. That said, they may not be willing to also trade anything of real value and pay him 13 million, so picking up his option to trade Yovani may not be worth it.

[paul253]

My main point is that there are [plenty of ways the Brewers could open up slots.

 

And I guess my main point is that if they didn't sign Garza not only would they not have to worry about opening up a spot in the rotation but they could have upgraded in other areas, namely first base or the bench. If they Brewers are still in it come July they are going to have to trade away some prospects to upgrade the bench.

[danzig6767]

If they Brewers are still in it come July they are going to have to trade away some prospects to upgrade the bench.

I don't see the team trading prospects of any value for bench players. I'm reasonably ok with the bench. Finding an upgrade at firstbase would be the only place i'd consider making a move if i was Melvin. Ideally we could get Morales to sign a one year deal after the draft, but if multiple teams go after him, he might be able to demand a multi-year deal. In that case, i hope Attanasio shows some discipline because i wouldn't want the team giving Morales anything longer than a two year deal.