Marco Estrada 2015 and beyond

[HiAndTight]

If you just don't believe that Thornburg, Smith, Nelson and then obviously Peralta are that good, then that's fine. But to try and take one small sample size here and say he must not be that good because the Royals didn't even start him, or that the Brewers preferred Garza to Thornburg and/or Nelson, so you can't really count either of them as starters....you're taking the confluence of events and say these very young pitchers who've got big arms aren't starters.

When I said "they aren't starters" I meant it literally....as in right now they are not starters. I would imagine Thornburg and Nelson both project as starters. Maybe Smith does too I don't really know as much about him. My point is that you can't claim we have a nice core of starting pitchers when only one of the four you mentioned is currently a major league starter. How can they compose "a core" when they aren't even in the role right now? If anything our young pitchers have "promise" or "potential" to form a core but that is much, much different than calling them a core.

 

Regarding Smith. According to baseball reference in his age 22 season where he started 16 games his ERA was not 4.66 it was 5.32. I know he's young but yes, that is "struggling". And just like I shouldn't (and wasn't) assume that he won't get any better you shouldn't just assume that he will. Over the course of his minor league career he put up a 3.80 ERA, though his lowest ERA year came in 2013 when 18 of his 28 appearances came in relief. I can't find his minor league splits but in his brief major league career it seems apparent that he's found much more success as a reliever. If you want to give him a shot as a starter I'd be all for it. But until he actually sees success as a major league starter you cannot consider him a core piece.

 

I wasn't trying to call you out or anything like that. I just think it's a little premature to call those guys, with the exception of Peralta, part of a core. The way Thornburg is pitching out of the bullpen he may never start a game again. Same with Smith. And until DM actually trades away a starter there is no room for Nelson in the rotation either.

 

 

So we're caught up over the term "core," as opposed to say "group?" Alright, I'll refer to them as a good "group," of young, talented potential starting pitchers.

 

With regard to Smith, I used absent mindedly used ERA. I was trying to compare his FIP with Peralta's. I wouldn't say a 4.66 FIP for a 22 year old lefty would be struggling. And no, I can't guarantee with absolute certainty that he would improve upon that given a chance to start again, but you were just arguing over the merits of developing young prospects and a farm system. I don't see why we'd change our thought process just because a guy no longer qualifies as a rookie or as a "prospect." I think it's pretty likely that he would improve as a starting pitcher given the opportunity. I also believe given the fact that he's young, a lefty, and that he has 3 good pitches, he's going to be given the chance to start at some point.

 

Nelson is a starting pitcher right now. It just so happens the Brewers have more starting pitching depth right now than I can ever recall them having. I realize he won't get a shot until either Melvin moves one of the starting 5, or an injury occurs, but that doesn't diminish what he's capable of. Nor does the fact that Thornburg has been exceptionally good as a reliever. The Brewers have yet to bring up a pitcher who's had success starting and then left him in the BP like Papelbon, so I'm going to assume that he will also get a chance to start.

 

 

My main underlying point was they have a very good group, core, whatever of young players who are under team control for several years.

[paul253]

My main underlying point was they have a very good group, core, whatever of young players who are under team control for several years.

And my point is that three of the four guys you listed as part of our core have yet to establish themselves as successful major league starting pitchers. Although we are certainly in a better place than we were four or five years ago, I have a hard time relying on them to be a major part of our future rotation just yet.

[reillymcshane]

I think Brewers would be smart to deal Estrada. Not sure his value is all that high though. We've probably seen his ceiling and it's more a solid #4 type and those guys aren't in great demand especially as they are cashing in in arbitration. Any slip and they become non-tender candidates quickly.

My worry about Marco is his home run rate. The guy has been a successful pitcher the last few years (when healthy), but he has dangerously high HR rates. Otherwise, he has really solid stats (low walks, solid K rates). In 2012 and 13, he gave up a ton of HRs in the first 1/2 of the season, then settled down in the second half (in 2013 he gave up 14 HR in 69 innings pre all star break, 5 in 59 inning post break. In 2012, it was 11 hr in 51 innings pre AS break, and 7 in 87 innings post). This year he already has given up 9 HR in 43 innings. He's on pace to give up 42 HR.

 

I worry that HR rate will only rise as he gets a little older and loses a little zip. Perhaps I'm wrong. Maybe his style of pitching will hold off the decline.

[fondybrewfan]

I agree that the Brewers would be smart to trade Estrada either at the deadline or in the offseason when he starts to get expensive. No point to paying him when you have probably 4 guys that you cold plug into his spot next year that would all be much cheaper (Thornburg, West, Fiers, Nelson).

 

Now I wouldn't expect a kings ransom for Estrada or anything but you would think some team would give up something nice for a decent SP that they would control for 2 years (?).

[reillymcshane]

I agree that the Brewers would be smart to trade Estrada either at the deadline or in the offseason when he starts to get expensive. No point to paying him when you have probably 4 guys that you cold plug into his spot next year that would all be much cheaper (Thornburg, West, Fiers, Nelson).

 

Now I wouldn't expect a kings ransom for Estrada or anything but you would think some team would give up something nice for a decent SP that they would control for 2 years (?).

What would Marco fetch in a trade? I'm not sure. If he started 30 games and kept his ERA under 4.00, you'd think someone would want him.

 

However, when you look at the Fister trade this off season, I'm just not sure what he'd get in return. The Tigers return (at the time) seemed pretty underwhelming. They got a couple of spare parts (lefty reliever Ian Krol and utilityman Steve Lombardozzi) and a guy who wasn't even on anyone's top 100 prospect list (Robbie Ray - who's having a pretty good season and just got called up). Fister is a better pitcher, slightly younger, and with a longer track record.

 

Perhaps it was the Tigers who simply didn't shop Fister around for a better return.

[TheCrew07]

As far as the return... well I know I'm repeating myself here but personally I'm not really all that concerned with "immediate help", I'd rather get better talent. I'd go down to A ball to get a prospect if I thought he had a decent shot to be something special. With a fairly large stable of back of the rotation types available we don't have a pressing need for pitching. Marco won't be worth a potential impact pitcher in AA, not unless some best case bidding war opened up for him and a team was desperate, so I'd be okay having to wait 2-3 years on the player to develop. I say "player" because while a pitcher would be ideal, we need impact potential wherever we can find it... 3B, 2B, 1B, SS (depending on how Segura develops), CF, and LF. I'd even lump RF into the mix as who knows where Braun will be playing in 2017.

 

I'm not saying that Segura, Davis, or Gennett won't be average starters, but to me that's replaceable and I'm not going to turn away someone with the chance to be special just because we already have a player at that position. I was hoping Segura would be special and even if he is another impact SS could be converted to 2B. The point here is that I'm not looking for another Gabe Gross, I'm looking for players who have the potential to be 4 WAR or so in their best years.

[reillymcshane]

As far as the return... well I know I'm repeating myself here but personally I'm not really all that concerned with "immediate help", I'd rather get better talent. I'd go down to A ball to get a prospect if I thought he had a decent shot to be something special. With a fairly large stable of back of the rotation types available we don't have a pressing need for pitching. Marco won't be worth a potential impact pitcher in AA, not unless some best case bidding war opened up for him and a team was desperate, so I'd be okay having to wait 2-3 years on the player to develop. I say "player" because while a pitcher would be ideal, we need impact potential wherever we can find it... 3B, 2B, 1B, SS (depending on how Segura develops), CF, and LF. I'd even lump RF into the mix as who knows where Braun will be playing in 2017.

 

I'm not saying that Segura, Davis, or Gennett won't be average starters, but to me that's replaceable and I'm not going to turn away someone with the chance to be special just because we already have a player at that position. I was hoping Segura would be special and even if he is another impact SS could be converted to 2B. The point here is that I'm not looking for another Gabe Gross, I'm looking for players who have the potential to be 4 WAR or so in their best years.

Totally agree. I'd rather take a gamble on a higher upside guy in A ball than more immediate (but mediocre) return. I know there's a tendency to want to fill holes at the major league level - and there's nothing wrong with that approach - but in order for our team to thrive long term, we need impact players. If you aren't offering elite talent, you won't get that in return if the guy is at or near the majors.

[HiAndTight]

I think Brewers would be smart to deal Estrada. Not sure his value is all that high though. We've probably seen his ceiling and it's more a solid #4 type and those guys aren't in great demand especially as they are cashing in in arbitration. Any slip and they become non-tender candidates quickly.

My worry about Marco is his home run rate. The guy has been a successful pitcher the last few years (when healthy), but he has dangerously high HR rates. Otherwise, he has really solid stats (low walks, solid K rates). In 2012 and 13, he gave up a ton of HRs in the first 1/2 of the season, then settled down in the second half (in 2013 he gave up 14 HR in 69 innings pre all star break, 5 in 59 inning post break. In 2012, it was 11 hr in 51 innings pre AS break, and 7 in 87 innings post). This year he already has given up 9 HR in 43 innings. He's on pace to give up 42 HR.

 

I worry that HR rate will only rise as he gets a little older and loses a little zip. Perhaps I'm wrong. Maybe his style of pitching will hold off the decline.

 

 

I respect Estrada and don't want to sound like a broken record, but if he loses a "little zip," from his fastball, I think he's going to not only decline, but could very well be out of baseball. He's averaging 88 MPH on his fastball right now. If he drops to 86 there just isn't enough difference between the change and FB to keep hitters honest IMO.

 

He's already lost 3 MPH in the last 3 years as he was throwing 91 when he first came here. That keeps up, two years I think he'd be lucky to hang on as a #5 or swing man.

[Warning Track Power]

What would Marco fetch in a trade? I'm not sure. If he started 30 games and kept his ERA under 4.00, you'd think someone would want him.

Mike Moustakas. I mentioned this is the Moustakas thread, but if this were the offseason, I could see a Estrada-Moustakas swap as Estrada's value. For what it's worth, I would make this move.

[HiAndTight]

What would Marco fetch in a trade? I'm not sure. If he started 30 games and kept his ERA under 4.00, you'd think someone would want him.

Mike Moustakas. I mentioned this is the Moustakas thread, but if this were the offseason, I could see a Estrada-Moustakas swap as Estrada's value. For what it's worth, I would make this move.

 

 

I think this would be a great move for both sides. Estrada would be their #5 and maybe we hit it big with Moustakas, but at least we get someone who can give Aram some rest.

[TooLiveBrew]

If the market was strong, I'd deal Marco at or before the deadline this season. Not because I don't like him, but because we're in a perfect position to do so. With Nelson, Thornburg, Smith, Fiers, & others behind him, for once the Brewers can sell from their pitching as a position of strength.

 

Marco+Weeks might entice a contender later in the season. My hope would be that the Crew could find an long-term answer (otherwise BPA) in corner OF with a package like that.

[brewcrewdue80]

Marco on the season 6/8 Quality Starts. Max is 4 runs given up so he's kept the team in every one of his starts. Avg just under a K per Inning. 3.28ERA and again it's the HR ball where the majority of his runs are scoring. He's at 3.28ERA and honestly, every ballpark he's pitched in has to be more HR friendly than the average Ballpark. At his going rate and pitching in more Pitcher friendly parks Estrada is an under 3ERA guy. But he's not valuable right? I keep backing him and he hasn't done anything to make me stop. You gotta go back to June 3rd of last year when Estrada gave up more than 4 Runs in a start(also last outing he didn't pitch 5inning or more) 12 of 17 in Quality starts.(16 if you assume the pitch count keeping him from reaching 13/17 when he came back from the DL)

All he does is pitch 6 or more innings giving up 4 runs and less. No other Brewer Pitcher can say that in the last half season's worth of starts. Peralta,Gallardo,Lohse have all given up 5 runs or more in at least one outing since Estrada returned from the DL last season.

There has to be value in having the no doubt guy on your staff to go 6ip and give up 4runs or less. What's even more impressive to me is Estrada has done that while being a HR prone Pitcher. He's not beat around one inning for 3 runs then serves up a 2 or 3run shot the next inning. It's amazing he's so consistent. Every team in Baseball has to want a Marco Estrada in their pitching staff.

[monty57]

Marco on the season 6/8 Quality Starts. Max is 4 runs given up so he's kept the team in every one of his starts. Avg just under a K per Inning. 3.28ERA and again it's the HR ball where the majority of his runs are scoring. He's at 3.28ERA and honestly, every ballpark he's pitched in has to be more HR friendly than the average Ballpark. At his going rate and pitching in more Pitcher friendly parks Estrada is an under 3ERA guy. But he's not valuable right? I keep backing him and he hasn't done anything to make me stop. You gotta go back to June 3rd of last year when Estrada gave up more than 4 Runs in a start(also last outing he didn't pitch 5inning or more) 12 of 17 in Quality starts.(16 if you assume the pitch count keeping him from reaching 13/17 when he came back from the DL)

All he does is pitch 6 or more innings giving up 4 runs and less. No other Brewer Pitcher can say that in the last half season's worth of starts. Peralta,Gallardo,Lohse have all given up 5 runs or more in at least one outing since Estrada returned from the DL last season.

There has to be value in having the no doubt guy on your staff to go 6ip and give up 4runs or less. What's even more impressive to me is Estrada has done that while being a HR prone Pitcher. He's not beat around one inning for 3 runs then serves up a 2 or 3run shot the next inning. It's amazing he's so consistent. Every team in Baseball has to want a Marco Estrada in their pitching staff.

 

Agreed bcd80. Whenever someone mentions trading for good, young players, the patented response is "you can't get good, young prospects unless you are willing to trade pitching and we've never had pitching to trade." Then, when you mention trading pitching, those same people say "they won't get any return for a guy like him."

 

Apparently, the only way you can trade for a good prospect is if you're trading away Cy Young.

[HiAndTight]

Estrada has an FIP of 4.76 this year. So I wouldn't call him a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher.

He's also a guy who throws 88 MPH on his average fastball and has lost roughly a MPH each year he's been here.

He's 31 in July and has never thrown more than 138 Innings and has 439 innings pitched in his career.

 

What part of a soft tossing pitcher on the wrong side of 30 who's never started for a full season and gives up HR's at a very high rate makes you think other teams are willing to part with top prospects for?

 

Yes, every team would like a pitcher like Marco. He is an excellent back of the rotation type of guy. But while those teams might want a guy like Marco, they also want and constantly search for good backup catchers, good utility IF'ers. It doesn't mean the value of those players is high. And we have the benefit of having not one, but two pitchers in AAA who are stretched out and more than capable of matching Estada's performance.

 

 

So no, you don't have to be Cy Young to have trade value...but Estrada also doesn't really check off a whole lot of the columns that teams are looking for in a starting pitcher they're going to give up a great deal for.

[RockCoCougars]

Estrada is a great 5th starter. Definitely one of the best, if not the best in franchise history. That said, I've got to think that he's going to be due a significant raise in arbitration this off season. It looks like the Brewers will be in the market for a 1B, quite possibly a 3B and maybe a corner outfielder this off season. You have to think that they will look at doing a deal this off season like they did with Doug Davis. I don't think that dealing him during the season makes any sense though- a couple of injuries in the rotation would really thin the ranks and it's nice to have some depth in the rotation.

[monty57]

Agreed RockCo. Something really strange would have to happen for the Brewers to trade one of their starting pitchers mid-season in a pennant race. This offseason makes the most sense, and I don't care if it's Lohse, Gallardo or Estrada who is traded, but it makes a lot of sense to trade at least one of them. I just think Estrada is the most likely for the Brewer management, who will not look at who will bring back the most trade value, but rather who is the most easily replaceable.

 

I don't expect Estrada to bring back a Top 10 prospect, but teams will certainly be willing to give up something of value for him, especially if he has a healthy, productive season this year. If I had to guess, I'd say the Brewers will trade a SP for a MLB corner IF in trade this offseason. They'll sacrifice "upside" for "proven," so they'll target a team with a decent 1B/3B with a couple years of control left who is blocking a promising prospect.

[TheCrew07]

They'll sacrifice "upside" for "proven," so they'll target a team with a decent 1B/3B with a couple years of control left who is blocking a promising prospect.

 

That's a pretty short list considering the dearth of 1B prospects around baseball. Here's the BA list of the top 3B coming into the season. If you can find a player in there who is legitimately being by blocked for 2015 by someone in the majors there's your guy. There are some nice prospects in that list, but very few who will be ready for opening day 2015... Kris Bryant (Mike Olt), Maikel Franco (Cody Asche), Matt Davidson (Conor Gillaspie), and Garin Cecchini (Will Middlebrooks),

 

I browsed the list again and unless Mike Olt can figure out how to hit again (besides HRs), there's not really any prospect on that list who's being blocked by a player at the major league level for 2015 worth taking a risk on who would be tradeable. Would we really want someone like Cody Asche from the Phillies? He's a capable defender but not really a power guy... he's certainly better than nothing and the team could control him for a while until something better came along. However his availability would depend on Maikel Franco getting going who's been horrible to start the year in AAA.

 

The White Sox have Davidson, Gillaspie, and Marcus Semien capable of playing 3B, Semien has split his time between 3B and 2B for the Sox this year, but he's not really a power guy either.

 

I don't see any option that I really like.

 

Edit. I should add that Davidson hasn't been good to start the year either and isn't really forcing his way to Chicago.

[brewcrewdue80]

Estrada has an FIP of 4.76 this year. So I wouldn't call him a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher.

He's also a guy who throws 88 MPH on his average fastball and has lost roughly a MPH each year he's been here.

He's 31 in July and has never thrown more than 138 Innings and has 439 innings pitched in his career.

 

What part of a soft tossing pitcher on the wrong side of 30 who's never started for a full season and gives up HR's at a very high rate makes you think other teams are willing to part with top prospects for?

 

Yes, every team would like a pitcher like Marco. He is an excellent back of the rotation type of guy. But while those teams might want a guy like Marco, they also want and constantly search for good backup catchers, good utility IF'ers. It doesn't mean the value of those players is high. And we have the benefit of having not one, but two pitchers in AAA who are stretched out and more than capable of matching Estada's performance.

 

 

So no, you don't have to be Cy Young to have trade value...but Estrada also doesn't really check off a whole lot of the columns that teams are looking for in a starting pitcher they're going to give up a great deal for.

 

 

H&T,

Marcos soft tossing FB is a problem for pitchers who don't locate their Changeup that is also at a speed that deceives hitters. That's where Marco gets away on his 88mph fb. And Ks hitters doing so. I remember an article on DoU last season? Where it showed Marcos release points for his 3pitches and how he's gotten better on releasing his Changeup on nearly the same plane/release as the FB. So he fools hitters better than before.

The argument on his IP limitations, I just don't get. Marco is nothing like any previous pitcher, every time he goes out he's setting new precedent. The Brewers turned him from a RP and made him a Starter at such a late age. So to harp about his age being 30 and his highest IP in a season being 138 or the total IP he has in his career? Well Marco didn't come from your typical SP mold! You're making that opinion based on the mold Marco never went through. Now he's healthy, staying healthy,

 

What Marcos value in trade really matters on what the market is that teams can trade for. Would you take Bud Norris or Estrada? If Marco had been healthy at last year's trade deadline, Is imagine his value being better than Norris's.

[monty57]

Now he's healthy, staying healthy

 

That's the big issue. The fact that he hasn't pitched a full season as a starter will detract from his trade value, so if he can stay healthy and productive this season, I believe his trade value will rise.

 

That's a pretty short list considering the dearth of 1B prospects around baseball.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure who they'll target. I just figure that they'll look for someone who can help their team next year. The biggest position of need will be corner IF, especially if Ramirez doesn't stay healthy and play well enough for them to exercise his option, which to this point (around 1/3 of the way into the season) he has not. I'm getting a little worried that they'll extend Reynolds to be their 3B next year because they don't have any better options.

[HiAndTight]

brewcrewdue80

H&T,

Marcos soft tossing FB is a problem for pitchers who don't locate their Changeup that is also at a speed that deceives hitters. That's where Marco gets away on his 88mph fb. And Ks hitters doing so. I remember an article on DoU last season? Where it showed Marcos release points for his 3pitches and how he's gotten better on releasing his Changeup on nearly the same plane/release as the FB. So he fools hitters better than before.

The argument on his IP limitations, I just don't get. Marco is nothing like any previous pitcher, every time he goes out he's setting new precedent. The Brewers turned him from a RP and made him a Starter at such a late age. So to harp about his age being 30 and his highest IP in a season being 138 or the total IP he has in his career? Well Marco didn't come from your typical SP mold! You're making that opinion based on the mold Marco never went through. Now he's healthy, staying healthy,

 

What Marcos value in trade really matters on what the market is that teams can trade for. Would you take Bud Norris or Estrada? If Marco had been healthy at last year's trade deadline, Is imagine his value being better than Norris's.

 

The Brewers are not the ones who made Marco Estrada a starter. He started 103 of the 109 games he pitched in while in the minors(88 GS in 94 Appearances while in Washington's farm system). He just wasn't good enough to make their big league rotation.

 

So I don't see how he's setting a new precedent every time he takes the mound. Jimmy Nelson has more appearances as a reliever in his minor league career than Marco Estrada. Estrada's career is the same as countless others who came up as starters, couldn't make the big league rotation so they used him as a long man until another team gave him a chance. There really isn't anything unique about that.

 

And if you want to say I'm "harping," about the fact that he's never pitched a full season as a starter, fine, but you don't think other teams just may be a bit concerned about that fact?

 

As for his lack of velocity, fine, lets say it's not causing any problems for him now(although he is leading the league in HR's allowed and has an FIP of 5.03 and a career low BABIP of .252). If he loses any more velocity and he's throwing 86-87, his change is going to be less effective.

 

 

RE: Bud Norris, not sure why he keeps getting brought up though. First of all, yes, I would have rather had Bud Norris if I was trading for a starting pitcher last year than Marco Estrada if I was a contending team. But Bud Norris didn't exactly net the Astro's a big return. The Astro's got two low level prospects and a draft pick from Baltimore. We got more for K-Rod. He certainly didn't get them anything close to what some are suggesting on here. And he's 2 years younger, has been more valuable in his career(8.1 career WAR vs 4.9 career WAR) while being 2 years younger.

 

So I don't really think you're making the argument you think you are by using Bud Norris as a comparable pitcher.

 

But to your larger point, you asked, IF Marco Estrada had been healthy last year at the trade deadline. Well....isn't that the issue? Teams want to know a pitcher at least has a history of being able to pitch a full season. Especially if they're giving up a big bat to play LF, or a guy who can come in and start at 3rd base.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's a bit early to start talking about pace, but Estrada is on pace to threaten Bert Blyleven's HR allowed season record of 50 and Estrada would do it in about 80 fewer innings. It's hard to see how he can hold on to his rotation spot if he keeps giving up HR's at this rate especially with Nelson pounding on the door. That can't help his trade value either.

[LouisEly]

As long as he keeps giving up solo HRs and keeps his ERA around 4.00 or less, I don't care. 12 of his 16 HRs have been solo, the other four have been 2-R HRs; zero 3-R HRs or Grand Slams. Solo HRs don't hurt you; they are a lot more efficient than giving up a walk and two hits and allow you to prevent big innings from getting tired (see: Garza, Matt - 5/27/14). It wouldn't necessarily hurt his trade value if he were going to a team with a big ballpark (Miami, Seattle, LA, San Diego, etc.) where it is tough to hit HRs.

 

Marco is a 6-inning, 90-pitch pitcher. He gets into trouble once he gets past 90 pitches. His ERA this year in the 7th inning is 16.20 and in the 8th inning is 27.00. I'm much more concerned about Garza, and would rather trade him than Estrada.

[brewcrewdue80]

Agreed on the HR concern that it's not as big a thing as it appears. His last start with 4HRs he was spotted a 7-1 lead to begin his 5IP. I've always been upset when I watch pitchers run up 3-2 full counts when they have leads like that. Just pitch to contact. Jones Golfed the 4th HR on a pitch low and in off the plate. It wasn't a down broadway pitch. Batters win sometimes. Estrada pitched in to the 7th inning.

FWIW, this is a guy who is harped about his 120ish inning limitations as a Starter for a season He's halfway there on a 186IP pace overall. Team is 6-4 in his starts. And like I said previously, every one of his starts he kept the team in the game/competitive.

The numbers I like is he avg less than a Hit per inning given up and he's almost avg a K per inning. To me with those two statlines, he will continue keeping the team in ballgames he starts. That's far better than most #5s on a team.

 

Some NL team has to want Marco after this season. I'm going to sit back enjoy him improving his trade value with each Start he gets. With each IP over his previous season high and grin ear to ear knowing a fine prospect is coming our way.

[HiAndTight]

Agreed on the HR concern that it's not as big a thing as it appears. His last start with 4HRs he was spotted a 7-1 lead to begin his 5IP. I've always been upset when I watch pitchers run up 3-2 full counts when they have leads like that. Just pitch to contact. Jones Golfed the 4th HR on a pitch low and in off the plate. It wasn't a down broadway pitch. Batters win sometimes. Estrada pitched in to the 7th inning.

FWIW, this is a guy who is harped about his 120ish inning limitations as a Starter for a season He's halfway there on a 186IP pace overall. Team is 6-4 in his starts. And like I said previously, every one of his starts he kept the team in the game/competitive.

The numbers I like is he avg less than a Hit per inning given up and he's almost avg a K per inning. To me with those two statlines, he will continue keeping the team in ballgames he starts. That's far better than most #5s on a team.

Some NL team has to want Marco after this season. I'm going to sit back enjoy him improving his trade value with each Start he gets. With each IP over his previous season high and grin ear to ear knowing a fine prospect is coming our way.

 

 

I would certainly enjoy this scenario if it played out as well. However...lets wait until he actually does it before talking about it.

And if it was just one HR that was golfed out, that'd be one thing, but he leads the league in HR's by a pretty big margin and his FIP is 5.43. That's just not good.

I think it's more likely that Estrada doesn't get offered a contract next year than he brings back any prospect of consequence.

He just gets hit hard. Right handers have a .925 OPS against him this year. His BABIP is just .242 well below his career average. He's getting hit harder as he's losing FB velocity. He does a remarkable job at having some success with what he has.

 

But I think with the Brewers young arms, they're far more likely to just non-tender him, save 5 million or so and go with Jimmy Nelson next year than they are to get a top 100 prospect for him from some NL team. I do think he could have success pitching for the NYM, SDP or a team like that. But his three year trend is not that of a player that teams are going to have to give up a legitimate prospect for.

 

As long as he keeps giving up solo HRs and keeps his ERA around 4.00 or less, I don't care. 12 of his 16 HRs have been solo, the other four have been 2-R HRs; zero 3-R HRs or Grand Slams. Solo HRs don't hurt you; they are a lot more efficient than giving up a walk and two hits and allow you to prevent big innings from getting tired (see: Garza, Matt - 5/27/14). It wouldn't necessarily hurt his trade value if he were going to a team with a big ballpark (Miami, Seattle, LA, San Diego, etc.) where it is tough to hit HRs.

 

Marco is a 6-inning, 90-pitch pitcher. He gets into trouble once he gets past 90 pitches. His ERA this year in the 7th inning is 16.20 and in the 8th inning is 27.00. I'm much more concerned about Garza, and would rather trade him than Estrada.

 

 

I don't really disagree with anything you've said here, but the topic at hand is Marco Estrada 2015...and beyond. Does he really strike you as a pitcher that's going to age well as he hits 32, 33?

[brewcrewdue80]

Done Pitchers seem to bottom out around 87-89 when they lose their original FB velocity? So Estrada has gone from 91 to 88. Will he continue on to 85-86 in a year or two? Or am I right that the drop in velocity settles at the 87-89 range?