Marco Estrada 2015 and beyond

[Jose Cardenal1]

Thinking ahead to the offseason (or I suppose maybe even this summer), what kind of return do you think the Brewers could get on Estrada? Assuming he pitches 175+ IP with an ERA in the 3.60 - 3.80 range , and given he would be under team control for two years, do you the Brewers could pull off a reverse Shawn Marcum deal? Seems crazy to think about a Brewer team trading away starting pitching but it may be realistic and smart if the return is useful.

 

I am a big believer in Jimmy Nelson and think he can step into Estrada's spot easily. On the down side we have 2 starting pitchers who will be free agents after 2015 (Gallardo (assuming '15 option picked up) and Lohse) and having Estrada under control for '16 would be nice. On a related note would Lohse ironically except a Qualifying Offer after the '15 season given his age at that point? Gallardo would surely turn a QO down (assuming health) and net us a draft pick.

[pacopete4]

Thinking ahead to the offseason (or I suppose maybe even this summer), what kind of return do you think the Brewers could get on Estrada? Assuming he pitches 175+ IP with an ERA in the 3.60 - 3.80 range , and given he would be under team control for two years, do you the Brewers could pull off a reverse Shawn Marcum deal? Seems crazy to think about a Brewer team trading away starting pitching but it may be realistic and smart if the return is useful.

 

I am a big believer in Jimmy Nelson and think he can step into Estrada's spot easily. On the down side we have 2 starting pitchers who will be free agents after 2015 (Gallardo (assuming '15 option picked up) and Lohse) and having Estrada under control for '16 would be nice. On a related note would Lohse ironically except a Qualifying Offer after the '15 season given his age at that point? Gallardo would surely turn a QO down (assuming health) and net us a draft pick.

 

I wouldn't be too sure on this. We've seen the past two seasons that guys have to wait until the draft and then sign because teams won't give up that draft pick.

 

On your other stuff. I'd flip Estrada after the break THIS YEAR and bring up Nelson or pitch Thornburg. That way you maximize whatever return you will get for an aging, steady pitcher.

[reillymcshane]

I don't think the Brewers would have a problem getting a draft pick if Yo pitches well the next two years.

 

From 2009-2012, Gallardo was incredibly consistent. ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, innings pitched - all really similar. Averages: 3.70ish ERA, 1.30 Whip, 200 IP, 200K, 15 wins. If he can pitch that way in 2014, the Brewers will pick up his option. If he does that again in 2015, he'll be in a great situation as a free agent. The Crew would easily give him the qualifying offer.

 

In 2016, he'll only be 31. If he pitches solid in 2014-15 and stays healthy, people are going to look at his mediocre 2013 as an aberration. Even if the Crew offered the QA, I don't think he'd have problems finding a team that would sign him. No, he wouldn't have the upside that some FAs offer. But he'll offer consistency. No one will sign him thinking he's a #1 type - but he'd be a great #3 guy - something easily worth $12-15 million (if not more).

 

Sure, Yo will have a lot of miles on his arm. People will worry about that. But he'll be relatively young and have a track record of being durable. That's worth a lot. And remember, it only takes one team to make something happen.

 

Of course, this is all reliant on Yo being a good pitcher the next two years. I certainly hope so.

[reillymcshane]

Thinking ahead to the offseason (or I suppose maybe even this summer), what kind of return do you think the Brewers could get on Estrada? Assuming he pitches 175+ IP with an ERA in the 3.60 - 3.80 range , and given he would be under team control for two years, do you the Brewers could pull off a reverse Shawn Marcum deal? Seems crazy to think about a Brewer team trading away starting pitching but it may be realistic and smart if the return is useful.

 

I am a big believer in Jimmy Nelson and think he can step into Estrada's spot easily. On the down side we have 2 starting pitchers who will be free agents after 2015 (Gallardo (assuming '15 option picked up) and Lohse) and having Estrada under control for '16 would be nice. On a related note would Lohse ironically except a Qualifying Offer after the '15 season given his age at that point? Gallardo would surely turn a QO down (assuming health) and net us a draft pick.

Trying to project out pitching is so hard because injuries are so common. "Excess pitching" is rarely a term you hear in the big leagues - and often that goes away pretty quickly (look at the Rays this year).

 

Still, I wouldn't have a problem dealing a starting pitcher in the offseason (assuming our rotation stays healthy and effective this year). But who gets traded, and when, really has to play out in the real world. If this club tanks horribly, it makes no sense to hang onto a 36 year old Lohse. And if the club doesn't think Nelson and/or Thornburg is primed for the rotation next year, it makes no sense to deal any of our starters. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers tried to extend Gallardo if he has a good 2014.

 

So the decision to make a deal really has to wait and see how things transpire. But I think you're right - if the opportunity is right, dealing Estrada (or another starter) should be considered.

 

How much Estrada could fetch in a deal is debatable. I doubt you're getting a prospect of Lawrie's caliber. Doug Fister, a younger and more accomplished pitcher than Estrada, brought a disappointing return this off season (but a lot of people think that was Detroit's blunder). But it's stupid not to see what can happen.

 

Cycling in younger players is critical to Milwaukee competing.

[Warning Track Power]

On your other stuff. I'd flip Estrada after the break THIS YEAR and bring up Nelson or pitch Thornburg. That way you maximize whatever return you will get for an aging, steady pitcher.

Yes...this is a double-edged sword though. I think the Brewers will be too close to competing this year to make a move of one of our 1-5. While I think this would be the most beneficial to the long term, I doubt Melvin would actually do this. In fact, I would be hesitant to do it unless it brought back a prospect or player that would be close to a guaranteed producer at 1B or 3B in the long term.

 

Ultimately, I think Estrada may have more value to us than what we could realistically receive in any trade. I don't see us acquiring anything more than a Delmonico-type prospect.

[JohnBriggs12]

On your other stuff. I'd flip Estrada after the break THIS YEAR and bring up Nelson or pitch Thornburg. That way you maximize whatever return you will get for an aging, steady pitcher.

Yes...this is a double-edged sword though. I think the Brewers will be too close to competing this year to make a move of one of our 1-5. While I think this would be the most beneficial to the long term, I doubt Melvin would actually do this. In fact, I would be hesitant to do it unless it brought back a prospect or player that would be close to a guaranteed producer at 1B or 3B in the long term.

 

Ultimately, I think Estrada may have more value to us than what we could realistically receive in any trade. I don't see us acquiring anything more than a Delmonico-type prospect.

 

I think you are underestimating Estrada's value. The White Sox got Adam Eaton for Hector Santiago and Estrada's track record is more impressive than Santiago's. Not saying Eaton is great, but he's a decent leadoff hitter with on base skills.

[TooLiveBrew]

On your other stuff. I'd flip Estrada after the break THIS YEAR and bring up Nelson or pitch Thornburg. That way you maximize whatever return you will get for an aging, steady pitcher.

Yes...this is a double-edged sword though. I think the Brewers will be too close to competing this year to make a move of one of our 1-5. While I think this would be the most beneficial to the long term, I doubt Melvin would actually do this. In fact, I would be hesitant to do it unless it brought back a prospect or player that would be close to a guaranteed producer at 1B or 3B in the long term.

 

Ultimately, I think Estrada may have more value to us than what we could realistically receive in any trade. I don't see us acquiring anything more than a Delmonico-type prospect.

 

I think you are underestimating Estrada's value. The White Sox got Adam Eaton for Hector Santiago and Estrada's track record is more impressive than Santiago's. Not saying Eaton is great, but he's a decent leadoff hitter with on base skills.

And we got Delmonico for 22 IP of K-Rod. Estrada would bring back a far better return than Delmonico.

[danzig6767]

On your other stuff. I'd flip Estrada after the break THIS YEAR and bring up Nelson or pitch Thornburg. That way you maximize whatever return you will get for an aging, steady pitcher.

Yes...this is a double-edged sword though. I think the Brewers will be too close to competing this year to make a move of one of our 1-5. While I think this would be the most beneficial to the long term, I doubt Melvin would actually do this. In fact, I would be hesitant to do it unless it brought back a prospect or player that would be close to a guaranteed producer at 1B or 3B in the long term.

 

Ultimately, I think Estrada may have more value to us than what we could realistically receive in any trade. I don't see us acquiring anything more than a Delmonico-type prospect.

 

I think you are underestimating Estrada's value. The White Sox got Adam Eaton for Hector Santiago and Estrada's track record is more impressive than Santiago's. Not saying Eaton is great, but he's a decent leadoff hitter with on base skills.

Eaton is a good player and i thought Arizona gave up to quickly on him and/or didn't get enough for him. If we didn't have Gomez, i'd trade Estrada for Eaton without a second thought.

[SoupTown]

The problem with Brewer management is they rarely trade a player when the playing is doing well and/or worth something to other teams. But the Brewers are in a position where they can trade a starter who is pitching well. But that is not Doug's MO.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I may be a little bit of a homer on this but Estrada is easily one of the most under rated starters in the league. to say that he wouldn't get anything more then a Delmonico type is ridiculous. he's an above average starter and would be a quality 4 or 5 on any staff. i'm not saying he should get a top 20 prospect in return, but he should definitely be worth a 75-100 guy.

[jerichoholicninja]

I may be a little bit of a homer on this but Estrada is easily one of the most under rated starters in the league. to say that he wouldn't get anything more then a Delmonico type is ridiculous. he's an above average starter and would be a quality 4 or 5 on any staff. i'm not saying he should get a top 20 prospect in return, but he should definitely be worth a 75-100 guy.

 

Agreed. The lack of respect that Estrada gets on this board is ridiculous.

[Warning Track Power]

I love Estrada and what he brings to the team. However, reverse your position. Would you trade a major prospect for Estrada if you were on a contender? Say this were 2010 and we had Brett Lawrie, would you trade him for what Marco does and at his age? I just wouldn't do it.

 

It's not a disrespect of Estrada, rather it's my realistic view of a 31 year old pitcher who, while very good, wouldn't bring a Lawrie type prospect in any trade.

[reillymcshane]

The problem with Brewer management is they rarely trade a player when the playing is doing well and/or worth something to other teams. But the Brewers are in a position where they can trade a starter who is pitching well. But that is not Doug's MO.

 

I think the bigger issue is that we haven't had any decent pitchers to trade because we've had no one to replace them with. He's been willing to trade established starters when he's had replacements available (Aoki, Overbay, Hardy).

 

But as we've discussed in other threads, our track record for producing starting pitchers has been awful.

 

Will he trade one next year? I don't know. But it might be the first time since he's been here that he's been able to actually deal a starter because he has a player or two ready to step into the rotation.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I love Estrada and what he brings to the team. However, reverse your position. Would you trade a major prospect for Estrada if you were on a contender? Say this were 2010 and we had Brett Lawrie, would you trade him for what Marco does and at his age? I just wouldn't do it.

 

It's not a disrespect of Estrada, rather it's my realistic view of a 31 year old pitcher who, while very good, wouldn't bring a Lawrie type prospect in any trade.

who said anything about getting a lawrie-type prospect for Estrada? going into 2011 baseball America had him at 40 and IIRC many other lists had him a top 25 prospect. there's plenty of guys 50-75 that I don't think would be outrageous to think Estrada would get in return (nick Williams, arismendy alcantara, matt Davidson, devon travis, etc..).

[nate82]

I love Estrada and what he brings to the team. However, reverse your position. Would you trade a major prospect for Estrada if you were on a contender? Say this were 2010 and we had Brett Lawrie, would you trade him for what Marco does and at his age? I just wouldn't do it.

 

It's not a disrespect of Estrada, rather it's my realistic view of a 31 year old pitcher who, while very good, wouldn't bring a Lawrie type prospect in any trade.

who said anything about getting a lawrie-type prospect for Estrada? going into 2011 baseball America had him at 40 and IIRC many other lists had him a top 25 prospect. there's plenty of guys 50-75 that I don't think would be outrageous to think Estrada would get in return (nick Williams, arismendy alcantara, matt Davidson, devon travis, etc..).

 

I am going to agree with this. A top 50-100 prospect is the fair market value for Estrada right now. I wouldn't give that to a team but the majority of GM's are not all that rational when it comes to trades. Blake Swihart, A.J. Cole, and Matt Barnes are also prospects that fall into the fair market trade value.

[HiAndTight]

On your other stuff. I'd flip Estrada after the break THIS YEAR and bring up Nelson or pitch Thornburg. That way you maximize whatever return you will get for an aging, steady pitcher.

Yes...this is a double-edged sword though. I think the Brewers will be too close to competing this year to make a move of one of our 1-5. While I think this would be the most beneficial to the long term, I doubt Melvin would actually do this. In fact, I would be hesitant to do it unless it brought back a prospect or player that would be close to a guaranteed producer at 1B or 3B in the long term.

 

Ultimately, I think Estrada may have more value to us than what we could realistically receive in any trade. I don't see us acquiring anything more than a Delmonico-type prospect.

 

I think you are underestimating Estrada's value. The White Sox got Adam Eaton for Hector Santiago and Estrada's track record is more impressive than Santiago's. Not saying Eaton is great, but he's a decent leadoff hitter with on base skills.

 

No, the White Sox did NOT trade Adam Eaton for Hector Santiago. Tyler Skaags, Trumbo, and several others players were involved in that three team trade that was far, far more complicated than Adam Eaton for Hector Santiago.

 

With that said, Santiago is 26 years old left handed pitcher, Estrada is 30, and Santiago has a better arm, threw more innings at age 25(149) than Estrada ever has, and their projections for this year are nearly identical.

The difference is Santiago still has upside, throws in the low to mid 90's where Estrada throws in the upper 80's.

 

 

As a Brewers fan, would anyone really give up a good prospect for a 30 year old starting pitcher who's average fastball is 88 MPH, is a fly ball pitcher, and has never had one full season as a starting pitcher in the big leagues at this point, and will cost ~5 million dollars next year?

 

Estrada has very-very little trade value except for a smaller market team that would like to upgrade the back of it's rotation in my opinion, and other than comparing his numbers to Gallardo's without taking into account how incredibly reliable Gallardo has been and how unreliable Estrada has been, I've yet to see one reason why that's not the case.

 

Estrada has been throwing the ball well and is a nice guy to have to give us good innings as our #5 starter(yes I realize he's slotted in as the #4 in the rotation right now) and he allowed Nelson and Thornburg more time to develop or be used in other roles. Beyond that, he's just another guy. He's just not that special. Certainly not someone you're going to get a can't miss 1st or 3rd basemen for.

 

 

 

And of course, many of the D-backs trades have been pretty universally blasted because they seem to trade their prospects based on how they value them as opposed as to how they're valued by other teams.

[HiAndTight]

I love Estrada and what he brings to the team. However, reverse your position. Would you trade a major prospect for Estrada if you were on a contender? Say this were 2010 and we had Brett Lawrie, would you trade him for what Marco does and at his age? I just wouldn't do it.

 

It's not a disrespect of Estrada, rather it's my realistic view of a 31 year old pitcher who, while very good, wouldn't bring a Lawrie type prospect in any trade.

who said anything about getting a lawrie-type prospect for Estrada? going into 2011 baseball America had him at 40 and IIRC many other lists had him a top 25 prospect. there's plenty of guys 50-75 that I don't think would be outrageous to think Estrada would get in return (nick Williams, arismendy alcantara, matt Davidson, devon travis, etc..).

 

 

 

The original post literally asked if we could "pull off a reverse Marcum type deal."

 

That's who said something about Lawrie.

 

 

Agreed. The lack of respect that Estrada gets on this board is ridiculous.

 

I think the amount of respect a 31 year old starting pitcher with a history of not being able to start a full season with an 88 MPH fastball is ridiculous.

[paul253]

I think his value depends on when you trade him. Just for the sake of clarity let's propose of deal of Estrada for Jimmy Nelson. Nelson is generally considered to be in the 75-100 range for prospects. If I were looking to get into the playoffs and wanted to make a deadline deal to upgrade my rotation then I'd probably prefer Estrada, realizing it may take Nelson to get him. But if the Brewers don't make him available until the offseason why would I trade Nelson for Estrada when they could both conceivably fill the same role (#4-#5)? Estrada may give you a little better numbers over the course of a season but as another poster pointed out awhile ago, is saving half of an earned run once every 5 games (or one full run every 10 games since teams can't score half a run) really going to make that much of a difference? Would it be worth giving up a top 100 prospect who is cheap and controllable for 5 or 6 more years to get a guy who may be a little better this season but is 31 and could become a free agent after the season? I'd say probably not.

[LouisEly]

I think the amount of respect a 31 year old starting pitcher with a history of not being able to start a full season with an 88 MPH fastball is ridiculous.

A couple of those seasons were because the Brewers couldn't decide if they wanted him to start or relieve, and/or they thought he was the sixth best starter so they put him in the pen. Last year it was because he pulled a hammy running. Never had any arm trouble.

 

What would you offer for a pitcher who last year was 29th in the league in K/9 and 13th in the league in WHIP among all pitchers with at least 100 IP?

[brewcrewdue80]

What would I give up for Estrada? Depends which team's home ballpark he's going to. I've said it multiple times, Estrada's Flyball/HR tendencies hurt his numbers pitching in HR friendly MP. Where would I put a prospect value on him? How about just comparing the deadline trade last year of Bud Norris. A minor league long shot Josh Hader, a Major League Starting OF LJ Hoes and a competitive balance pick.

 

There's no doubt in my mind Estrada is a better pitcher than Norris. Finding a current top 100 prospect ranking player for Estrada is tough. I wouldn't give a team a top 100 prospect who's 20years or younger away for Marco. And just looking over the rankings, the teams with 70s-100 ranked prospects don't match up very well. A guy like Zach Lee doesn't help the roster being another #3/4 Pitcher. And then other teams have HR friendly parks or have SSs to offer. And you have none playoff contenders Houston/Cubs so they aren't trading for Marco. So going beyond the 100 rankings.... a matchup I'd look at would be:

San Fran offering Chris Stratton or Adalberto Mejia

Toronto offering up Dan Norris

San Diego offering up Joe Ross

Washington offering up Matt Purke

 

I mean I don't know. It's just the teams I like Marco to pitch for would be: San Diego, NYM, Washington, Miami, Philly, Toronto, Seattle, Oakland, Minnesota, Anaheim, LA, San Fran Wow, felt like less than 12 teams but still it's hard to find a matchup of Prospect going by today's rankings. You're not going to get a team's top 2 or 3 Prospects (unless its from a poor system) And, in the case of NYM,Mia,Philly,Minn they are offseason trade with teams.

It's tough. There's OFs to pick from at or about ML ready and we have no room for them. There are Ace/#2 type Pitching prospects I can't fathom trading away, and there's #3/4 Pitchers that are close to ML ready who we don't room for. SSs a plenty or Catchers but we're covered there. What you don't have are good 1b/2b/3b prospects to matchup with unless we're talking Boston who's ballpark I believe doesn't make Estrada a good fit. Same thing with trading with Texas.

Ultimately, I'd say San Fran or San Diego are Marco's best fits. Minnesota and Miami if they decided to win a few more games. Philly and Toronto but Philly won't give up Franco and they have nobody else worth offering. Toronto has upside guys I don't know they'd offer Osuna/Norris.

 

I'll just keep rooting for Estrada as a Brewer for 2014 and let the Nelson/Jungmann/Hellweg/Thornburgs force the issue to trade him.

[HiAndTight]

I think the amount of respect a 31 year old starting pitcher with a history of not being able to start a full season with an 88 MPH fastball is ridiculous.

A couple of those seasons were because the Brewers couldn't decide if they wanted him to start or relieve, and/or they thought he was the sixth best starter so they put him in the pen. Last year it was because he pulled a hammy running. Never had any arm trouble.

 

What would you offer for a pitcher who last year was 29th in the league in K/9 and 13th in the league in WHIP among all pitchers with at least 100 IP?

 

 

He's going to be 31 years old on July 5th and has 408 career major league innings.

 

Again, 31 year old, never thrown more than 138 innings pitched, average FB velocity of 88 MPH. What would I give up for that? Not much. Not Jimmy Nelson. Not for a team like the Brewers that needs to develop it's own pitching.

[adambr2]

I love Estrada and what he brings to the team. However, reverse your position. Would you trade a major prospect for Estrada if you were on a contender? Say this were 2010 and we had Brett Lawrie, would you trade him for what Marco does and at his age? I just wouldn't do it.

 

It's not a disrespect of Estrada, rather it's my realistic view of a 31 year old pitcher who, while very good, wouldn't bring a Lawrie type prospect in any trade.

who said anything about getting a lawrie-type prospect for Estrada? going into 2011 baseball America had him at 40 and IIRC many other lists had him a top 25 prospect. there's plenty of guys 50-75 that I don't think would be outrageous to think Estrada would get in return (nick Williams, arismendy alcantara, matt Davidson, devon travis, etc..).

 

 

 

The original post literally asked if we could "pull off a reverse Marcum type deal."

 

That's who said something about Lawrie.

 

 

Agreed. The lack of respect that Estrada gets on this board is ridiculous.

 

I think the amount of respect a 31 year old starting pitcher with a history of not being able to start a full season with an 88 MPH fastball is ridiculous.

 

I don't think his fastball velocity is relevant to the amount of respect he should get. Gallardo sits at about 91, he doesn't light up the radar. Where is the line in the sand? I certainly don't think that guys who manage to be effective without overpowering fastballs should be slighted for it.

 

Speaking of Yo, from 2012 through now Estrada has a higher combined WAR and better cumulative ERA than Gallardo. I'm not saying that he is better than Yo, and I think WAR for pitchers is kind of sketchy, but it at least indicates that he has definitely had some value as a starter.

 

I agree on two things -- 1) His lack of durability seriously limits his value, and 2) He wouldn't bring a reverse Lawrie type return for us. I think he'd do better than a Jimmy Nelson prospect, though. But his limited innings are certainly a concern for any trade partner. I think a full 170 IP (which is probably his ceiling this year) with a 3.50 ERA or so could really increase his value.

[TheCrew07]

I don't think his fastball velocity is relevant to the amount of respect he should get. Gallardo sits at about 91, he doesn't light up the radar. Where is the line in the sand? I certainly don't think that guys who manage to be effective without overpowering fastballs should be slighted for it.

 

If you're working 90-91, you are exactly average, if you work anything below that then well... Furthermore FB velocity is absolutely relative when discussing pitchers. I don't really want to take the time to rehash the stuff vs results debate, if you can get pitchers with average FBs to out pitch their physical talent that's fantastic. However that doesn't mean we should ever get comfortable with that player.

 

Pitchers that work with below average FBs are almost entirely reliant on their command, as such they aren't pitchers you want to bank on long-term. People will look at the ultimate results from someone like that and get excited and make all kinds of statistical arguments why they are better than they are. The, "Yes he's got an average to below average FB but..." type statements, remember the "Capuano is our true ace" thread? When those guys tank, they tank fast, so again moving Estrada doesn't have as much to do with what he is, but rather what he's not.

 

He's not physically talented relative to his peers, he's never pitched more than 139.2 innings in any season in his career, he's over 30, and the team only controls him through 2015. While he's ultimately been successful at the big league level, those factors are going to work against the Brewers in a trade situation because they are obvious flaws. It doesn't really matter why Marco has never had even a 180 inning season when it comes to defining his trade value, if you're the GM on the other end of the phone that's a serious red flag. Those are actually all the same reasons why the Brewers should view him as expendable, even though he's been a good pitcher when he's been healthy. The Brewers should know it, we should know it, and the other teams certainly are going to know it when it comes to discussing his value.

 

Our best case scenario would be he's the best pitcher available at the trade deadline and someone will overpay for him in a bidding war for a playoff push, then we can talk about getting a prospect in that 30-60 range from the top 100. The problem of course is that the Brewers would actually have to be willing to deal him, which I doubt they will. In which case I'd be looking for someone from A, R+, or R with some upside who the scouts liked over the winter, I don't know that he'd draw top 100 interest. If they'd even move him then... worst case the team rides him to FA and tries to get compensation by offering him a QO or actually trying to resign him to a FA contract.

 

The Mets spent all off-season trying to trade Ike Davis to the Pirates for Nick Kingham who was #64 on the most recent 100. I think Kingham will ultimately be a #3, but there's no way I would have traded Kingham for Davis, nor would I trade a prospect like that for someone like Estrada who's yet to pitch a full season in the majors and I only control for 1 year. We're talking a pretty small number of teams who think they are in a window (I know I don't believe in the window philosophy but others do) to compete and are desperate enough for pitching they would make that kind of move.

 

For what it's worth I don't think Gallardo is going to age all that well either unless he learns to attack more through the strike zone, he's always been a nibbler and at some point it's just not going to work for him anymore.

[monty57]

It will be interesting to see how the Brewers play this. This hot start makes it very unlikely that they will trade away anyone this year, so they will be sitting next offseason with one year remaining on Lohse, Gallardo and Estrada, with Thornburg and Nelson presumably ready for the rotation. They really need to get at least one of Thornburg/Nelson into the rotation next year, since they don't want to risk losing 3/5 of their starting rotation after the 2015 season.

 

I don't see the Brewers trading away two veterans to make room for two young arms, so barring injury it seems very likely that they would trade away one of Gallardo, Estrada or Lohse. That would send them into next year with Garza, Peralta, the surviving two of Gallardo/Lohse/Estrada and either Thornburg or Nelson. Looking at that, I don't see anyone getting extended so the real question is "who makes the most sense to trade next offseason?"

 

Again barring inury, and assuming they all have "normal" years, Estrada would have the least trade value. That would set up the question "do we trade the least valuable to keep the best chance of winning in 2015 (meaning the best two would be lost "for nothing" to free agency), or do we trade a more valuable player to get better return to help future Brewer teams?" I'd bet the Brewers will look to maximize the 2015 MLB roster so they'll trade Estrada and probably lose Gallardo and Lohse to free agency. Taking that a step further, they will look to get "MLB ready" talent for Estrada, so they will end up getting return value somewhere around what we got for Aoki.

[SoupTown]

I state again. There is really no problem or discussion to have. Marco will spend a month or two on the DL (as predicted above) and Tyler will get his starts. Marco will then be not too expensive again in 2015 and be a great number five starter (for half the year).

 

Now, if Marco goes the entire year and picks up 30 starts... then he is likely a nice trade chip over the winter.

 

So, we are win-win. 30 starts = good. half starts = good.

 

Now (since I am now discussing what I said was undiscussable) maybe, just maybe, the BREWERS should offer him a wee extension this winter. Say two years (covering the last arby and one FA year) with a team option. Because come 2016 we are likely pitching short again. And having Marco as a number five could be very useful.