State of the Central

[Dead Simmons]

May I first say that I'm pretty exited by the current parity we now have. The reemergence of your Brews has made what was already the toughest division in baseball even more so.

 

The Cubs: an improving ball club. In any other division I think they would be a solid +.500 team. Of course, they need more pitching. But I predict they will "spoil" somebody come September.

 

Reds: Very talented team transitioning to a new manager and trying to adjust to the loss of Choo and Arroyo, and some key players on the DL. Don't underestimate them. There is plenty of time to get it turned around.

 

Pirates: What can I say? Tough team. A playoff team. Never seem to slump. Can they win the Central? Yes they can. They really take it to the Reds and Cards.

 

Cards: Deep team, probably a tad better this year with Kosma and Jay's roles being greatly reduced. Being picked by every pundit and his brother to win the pennant. Biggest problem? Mishandling of the pitching staff by Matheny. The starters are gassed by September.

 

Brews: A question mark to me. I really don't know what to make of your team. The 9 game streak and the steam rolling of the Sox/Bucs took the baseball world by surprise. Perhaps you will tell ME what to expect.

 

Due to parity there can be no 100 game winner in the Central. We must feast on the East and the rest of the West. (LA and SF are tough) Well, thanks for reading. Have I got any of this right?

[Bikeage77]

Out of curiosity, which team of these do you root for? I'm guessing it's not the "Brews."

[ewitkows]

Location: Missouri Take a wild guess

[Dead Simmons]

Cardinal Baseball and Football fan from childhood. Does that make me unwelcomed? It's your forum guys.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Cardinal Baseball and Football fan from childhood. Does that make me unwelcomed? It's your forum guys.

 

it's cool dude as long as you don't pull the whole we're the greatest and classiest fans in the world routine.

 

you're pretty spot on with you evaluation with the exception of the cubs. I think they're truly an awful team. Put them in any division and they will still win less than 75 games. I have them finish the season somewhere between 68 wins and 73 wins.

 

I think the Reds are going to regress a little this year. I have them falling back to 84 wins. Pirates somewhere around 87 wins. I think the Brewers will take one of the wild card spots and finish somewhere around 88 to 91 wins. This team won't win the division as long as they keep getting beat by the Cards.

 

The Cards are going to be tough again. Wacha is off to a disappointing start. What do you think happens with him this year?

[Dead Simmons]

Cardinal Baseball and Football fan from childhood. Does that make me unwelcomed? It's your forum guys.

 

it's cool dude as long as you don't pull the whole we're the greatest and classiest fans in the world routine.

 

you're pretty spot on with you evaluation with the exception of the cubs. I think they're truly an awful team. Put them in any division and they will still win less than 75 games. I have them finish the season somewhere between 68 wins and 73 wins.

 

I think the Reds are going to regress a little this year. I have them falling back to 84 wins. Pirates somewhere around 87 wins. I think the Brewers will take one of the wild card spots and finish somewhere around 88 to 91 wins. This team won't win the division as long as they keep getting beat by the Cards.

 

The Cards are going to be tough again. Wacha is off to a disappointing start. What do you think happens with him this year?

On the Cubs, I think they will surprise a lot of people. I can see them very close to a .500 team.

 

On the "best fans" BS, I, like 90% of enlightened St. Louisans know it's just that. Thanks a lot Sports Illustrated for making us an object of ire!

 

On Wacha, he really fits into the mold of Carp/Waino in his size and delivery. And like them, future arm troubles await. And you know phenoms....most don't pan out. I thought Ankiel was the second coming of Feller and Jaime Garcia the next Pedro Martinez. Go figure. But I see him as a 16 to 18 game winner this year.

 

Let me ask you now - what's the story on Carlos Gomez? Is he for real? What kind of pitchers does he feast on, who did he play for before joining the Brews? etc.

[fondybrewfan]

Gomez' success is now going on 1 and 1/2 years so I would definitely say he is a legitimate all star player right now. Maybe not a superstar but there aren't too many players in the game that have the tools and production he has had recently. If there is a complaint about him its he gets way to aggressive; both at the plate and on the bases. He plays recklessly at times; but that is just his style.

 

He was a young player that came up the bigs with the Mets and Twins way to early. He simply wasn't ready; hell he wasn't ready the first 2 years as a Brewer either. He perhaps was a little slow developing but he is certainly coming into his own now.

[gregmag]

Gomez is a truly strange player. His plate discipline has improved a lot and his walk rate has improved some, but he's basically a free-swinging power hitter who also happens to have great speed on the bases and otherworldly defensive skills. Batting him leadoff just accentuates his oddness. I can't think of any other player with his collection of attributes. Mike Cameron comes closest, off the top of my head, but right now Gomez is better than Cameron ever was.

 

The Brewers' pitching is better and deeper than most people realize. We have no world-beaters in the rotation, but we have no pushovers either, and I think we have arms in the bullpen and at AAA that would help us survive losing any two of them reasonably well. Bullpen's the same basic story: well-constructed, good collection of pitchers, but nobody who's likely to be dominant or irreplaceable over a full season.

 

I think we'll go through stretches where we'll have trouble scoring runs. Braun, Gomez, Lucroy, and Ramirez are legitimate frontline hitters. Segura and Khris Davis are question marks, but I'm pretty confident they'll contribute. Those six are pretty much it. The 1b platoon is going to struggle, although Reynolds will contribute bombs. Many people believe Scooter Gennett will be a plus bat at 2b; I'm not one of them. The bench sucks offensively, although I think Logan Schafer will hit better than he has so far. Position-player depth is our biggest weakness. I think Caleb Gindl, currently at AAA, is probably our seventh-best MLB hitter, and I'm eccentric in still believing Taylor Green could hit at this level. After those guys, though, the show-ready pickings get truly slim.

[Dead Simmons]

Thanks Fondy. Good God! Gomez had some monster swings last night! (according to my radio announcer) Hopefully tonights game will be televised so I can get a good look. In my erea I never know 'till gametime.

 

Oh, and let me respond to Vegasbrewcrew on the Reds, which I overlooked: They have a legit MONSTER in Bruce, an MVP in Votto, the best fielding 2Bman I have EVER seen in the annoying Phillips and a truly dangerous clutch hitter in Ludwick (if he stays healthy)

 

Even w/o Arroyo the rotation is still good. Cingrano is simply frightening. When and if Chapman returns they will become a very dangerous team once again.

[Dead Simmons]

Thanks for the overview Gregmag. I'm familiar with free swinging power hitters. But the Cards' Holliday has no such defensive skills. I shudder every time a ball's hit to LF. I'll give you a heads up on the guy: he can't hit smart pitching. He's a sucker for breaking balls a foot outside. Can't resist them. High heat: Forget about it. Can't hit it. But hang a curve....goodbye baseball. Also, not a smart hitter. His approach never varies. See ball, smash ball. To hell with the game situation. When all you need is a ground ball to the right side to win the game he is still trying to put it in the seats. Very frustrating.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cubs being an "improving ball club" is a bit of a mirage. They weren't all that bad the first half the last couple years but come July they will again be unloading major league talent. In the meantime, their bullpen is plain awful and will keep them well under .500. Samardzija and possibly Hammel won't be around come August. Schierholtz and Bonafacio could both be gone as well. Cubs will be a team to be reckoned with in 2016 but not before.

 

I'm not buying the Pirates either. They may play the Cards tough, but it's not a playoff team. Not this year.

[torts]

hi, I live in pittsburgh, a third of pittsburgh isnt even buying the pirates, another third thinks they're the second coming of the team in the 60s and 70s, and the other third is more concerned with pass protection for Big Ben and how they can address that in the draft this year

[Dead Simmons]

Cubs being an "improving ball club" is a bit of a mirage. They weren't all that bad the first half the last couple years but come July they will again be unloading major league talent. In the meantime, their bullpen is plain awful and will keep them well under .500. Samardzija and possibly Hammel won't be around come August. Schierholtz and Bonafacio could both be gone as well. Cubs will be a team to be reckoned with in 2016 but not before.

 

I'm not buying the Pirates either. They may play the Cards tough, but it's not a playoff team. Not this year.

I'll have to defer to you on Chicago. You clearly know more about their team workings than I. As to the Bucs, I have to stand fast on that one. Get back to you on them after a couple of months.

[Dead Simmons]

hi, I live in pittsburgh, a third of pittsburgh isnt even buying the pirates, another third thinks they're the second coming of the team in the 60s and 70s, and the other third is more concerned with pass protection for Big Ben and how they can address that in the draft this year

I know what you mean. It will probably take a WS appearance before that Steel(ers) City gets back on the Bucwagon. Cincy has the same problem with the Bengals. The absence of asses in the seats in the mist of hot pennant races is alarming to say the least.

 

I guess we're lucky in that respect. Pure baseball towns.

[reillymcshane]

To me the thing that stands out is the immediate, high upside depth that the Cardinals have, plus their nice mix of young and veteran players. It gives them the best chance to do well now - and in the next few years.

 

This year, when the inevitable injuries come, the Cards have some nice impact type guys that can step in. Taveras and Piscotty, for example. And Carlos Martinez can move into the rotation. It's some nice depth to have.

 

The Brewers have Nelson at AAA. And Thornburg could shift into the rotation. But we don't have any hitters in the minors like the Cardinals do.

 

The Cardinals big issue might be they lack the 30 HR type player coming up through the ranks (at least that I'm aware of). The major league roster has a lot of nice hitters, but they are more 15-20 HR type guys - not big sluggers. They lost Beltran (not a huge lose, in my opinion, as his defense was bad and getting worse), and Holiday is getting older. Doesn't mean they won't do really well, but it could be an issue.

[logan82]

I can't think of any other player with his collection of attributes. Mike Cameron comes closest, off the top of my head, but right now Gomez is better than Cameron ever was.

Gomez is not the same type hitter Cameron was. Cameron had a lot more patience. Gomez has more power. I think Gomez is probably the better overall defender because of a stronger arm. I have heard Gomez described as a hyperactive puppy. He certainly brings a lot of energy and TOOTBLAN's. He had one on the first PA of the season.

[Dead Simmons]

The Cardinals big issue might be they lack the 30 HR type player coming up through the ranks (at least that I'm aware of). The major league roster has a lot of nice hitters, but they are more 15-20 HR type guys - not big sluggers. They lost Beltran (not a huge lose, in my opinion, as his defense was bad and getting worse), and Holiday is getting older. Doesn't mean they won't do really well, but it could be an issue.

 

You are correct that the absence of Pujols, Berkman and Beltran, added to the current decline of Holliday makes it possible that there will not even be a 20 HR guy.

 

Beltran was a HUGE loss. Lackadaisical by nature, nobody stepped up in big games like he did. I think he will be a big man around NY this year. Classis example of Beltran occurred last weekend vs. the Redsox when he trotted home on a sac fly. The runner from 2nd was thrown out going for 3B before Carlos touched home and the run did not count!

 

Sure enough, on his very next AB he blasted one out to reprieve himself, and a double on his next AB.

 

I don't think the lack of power will hurt as long as the pitching is great. Great pitching cures all ills. The biggest concern now is Allen Craig. He forgot how to hit over the off season.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Cardinal Baseball and Football fan from childhood. Does that make me unwelcomed? It's your forum guys.

 

it's cool dude as long as you don't pull the whole we're the greatest and classiest fans in the world routine.

 

you're pretty spot on with you evaluation with the exception of the cubs. I think they're truly an awful team. Put them in any division and they will still win less than 75 games. I have them finish the season somewhere between 68 wins and 73 wins.

 

I think the Reds are going to regress a little this year. I have them falling back to 84 wins. Pirates somewhere around 87 wins. I think the Brewers will take one of the wild card spots and finish somewhere around 88 to 91 wins. This team won't win the division as long as they keep getting beat by the Cards.

 

The Cards are going to be tough again. Wacha is off to a disappointing start. What do you think happens with him this year?

On the Cubs, I think they will surprise a lot of people. I can see them very close to a .500 team.

 

On the "best fans" BS, I, like 90% of enlightened St. Louisans know it's just that. Thanks a lot Sports Illustrated for making us an object of ire!

 

On Wacha, he really fits into the mold of Carp/Waino in his size and delivery. And like them, future arm troubles await. And you know phenoms....most don't pan out. I thought Ankiel was the second coming of Feller and Jaime Garcia the next Pedro Martinez. Go figure. But I see him as a 16 to 18 game winner this year.

 

Let me ask you now - what's the story on Carlos Gomez? Is he for real? What kind of pitchers does he feast on, who did he play for before joining the Brews? etc.

 

I really don't know what to say about Gomez. He's had 1 awesome year. He's off to a pretty good start this year. If he has another great year, I'll believe he's legit. Someone with more baseball savvy could answer this better, but I think Gomez struggles with breaking pitches. Most Brewers can't hit the slider.

 

Lol I know I'm just teasing you about the classiest fans thing.

 

 

I can tell Wacha's going to be a major pain in the butt for the Brewers. The guy has filthy stuff. It would not surprise if he had a bit of a sophomore slump though. Wacha is the ace of the future for the Cards. What do you think about Carlos Martinez and Shelby Miller. I'm not a Miller fan. I think he relies on the fastball too much and it's going to get him killed.

 

The Cubs are going to have a powerful offense soon. The pitching in the minors is very weak though. I could see the Cubs creep around 77 to 81 wins in 2015 or 2016.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Cardinal Baseball and Football fan from childhood. Does that make me unwelcomed? It's your forum guys.

 

Just so you know you have great pitching. My opinion is your pitching is the smartest and best at locating their pitches combined with the best catcher in the majors. Tops in Baseball.

 

However, the Brewers pitching is right behind yours, and if our hitters learn to make an adjustment and lay off those outside pitches we could very well over take you in the division. It's going to be interesting to see if that adjustment happens if out managers grow a brain and see the pattern. It's going to be tight all season, and I suspect you know that, which is why you chose our board rather than the Reds, Pitts. I hope we don't play you in the playoffs. Good luck this season. I hate the Reds more than the Cards.

[Patrick425]

Well, sorry, I'm going to submit my "glass is half empty" view of the Brewers.

 

As a Brewer Fan, it's hard not to be optimistic and excited about their start. However, I've been a Brewer Fan long enough to know to temper my enthusiasm until they get through what is traditionally the month they always have trouble with, May. Let's not forget the horrible May they had last year or 1987 where they came out of the gate 13-0 and then proceeded to lose 12 games in a row in May. Also, I don't see any way they win the division unless they can find a way to play at least .500 baseball against the Cards.

 

In regards to Carlos Gomez. Absolutely love his enthusiasm and the way he plays CF. That is fun to watch. However, I absolutely hate his approach at the plate. The swings he has been taking have bee ridiculous and comical, not just for a lead off hitter but for any position in the lineup. Hey Carlos, you have a 3-1 count and your team is up by 3 or 4 runs...fine take that crazy hack where you almost fall backwards on your behind, but to do that every time you swing at the ball.....really?! Why would you ever throw him a fastball anywhere near the strike zone? How is it possible that he's our lead off hitter? I realize that we don't have a ton of options, but he should not be the choice. His career numbers through yesterday...2547 ABs, 149 BBs (?!?), .256 BA, .305 OBP. Not exactly lead-off hitter material. Yes, he did have a good offensive year last year, but personally I want to see him put up numbers like that 2 or 3 years in a row before I really believe that he has turned it around offensively. He just doesn't seem like he would be that hard to pitch to.

 

Sorry for being such a Debbie Downer. What can I say, I grew up with a Dad who was a Cubs fan who basically taught me to not get too excited about anything because then you won't be disappointed when things to pan out.

[fondybrewfan]

Hopefully Peralta can get us a W today; but it is clear the Cards still own us and have the better team. Not saying we couldn't beat them in a 5 or 7 game series if we had to; but the Cards 3rd and 4th starters just absolutely dominated us at home and both Lynn and Miller had previously had rough starts to their year.

[RobDeer 45]

I honestly think it's a mindset. We are still scared of Big Brother. Until we can beat them up, we will keep lowering our head and walking away.

 

Hey, Missouri guy, why don't you GET OUT! Since you showed up, we went from a 9 game winning streak to a 2 game losing streak!!!!!!!!! ;-)

[brewmann04]

I agree the Cards are in our Heads without a Doubt win a few games from them it should change thier Mind set.

[Dead Simmons]

I honestly think it's a mindset. We are still scared of Big Brother. Until we can beat them up, we will keep lowering our head and walking away.

 

Hey, Missouri guy, why don't you GET OUT! Since you showed up, we went from a 9 game winning streak to a 2 game losing streak!!!!!!!!! ;-)

I feel you Deer. Being the jinx-conscious fan that I am, you will note that I joined on Monday but held off posting until 'till tues, after the streak ended.

[RobDeer 45]

I honestly think it's a mindset. We are still scared of Big Brother. Until we can beat them up, we will keep lowering our head and walking away.

 

Hey, Missouri guy, why don't you GET OUT! Since you showed up, we went from a 9 game winning streak to a 2 game losing streak!!!!!!!!! ;-)

I feel you Deer. Being the jinx conscience fan that I am, you will note that I joined on Monday but held off posting until 'till tues, after the streak ended.

 

Ha! Just messing around. I love good baseball talk with fans of any team. I'm sure everyone feels the same, but we appreciate the fact that you are very tactful in the way you post over here on enemy territory. It's really a pretty great group of fans over here that just like to talk and debate baseball.