AAA/AAAA arms

[Oxy]

We have a glut of youngish decent arms in the system. We have no position players of note coming up in the next few years, with glaring holes at 3B and 1B on the Major League roster.

 

Any chance we can swing a deal for a nice 3B/1B prospect by dangling some of our young arms out there?

 

I would guess we'd want to keep Thornburg and Nelson, but personally I'd be okay with trading away the others if it can net us a top notch or near-top-notch corner IF prospect. What do you all think?

[monkeyman343434]

If the Brewers had a top notch 1B or 3B prospect, would you want to deal said prospect for a bunch of AAAA/AAA arms that weren't among that team's top pitching prospects? Let alone a team that is widely viewed as having a bottom 5 farm system.

[Oxy]

If the Brewers had a top notch 1B or 3B prospect, would you want to deal said prospect for a bunch of AAAA/AAA arms that weren't among that team's top pitching prospects? Let alone a team that is widely viewed as having a bottom 5 farm system.

 

Sure, if my prospect is blocked and I need cheap, young arms. I keep hearing how cheap young arms are like gold, and how the corner spots are easier to fill...so...a quantity for quality trade seems to make sense.

 

There are a lot of posters more well versed than I about prospects around the league, so I figured I'd ask the question.

 

Also, if we throw in an Estrada or a Gallardo I bet it could makes things very interesting. Although Gallardo at least is probably off-limits as long as we are in contention.

 

We traded Brett Lawrie for a couple years of Shaun Marcum. I was looking for something like that in reverse--or a couple young arms rather than a couple years of an above average vet.

[TheCrew07]

Sure, if my prospect is blocked and I need cheap, young arms. I keep hearing how cheap young arms are like gold, and how the corner spots are easier to fill...so...a quantity for quality trade seems to make sense.

 

Very few GMs are going to be willing to make a quantity for quality deal, that's more of a video game thing these days. 7-10 years ago it was much more of a realistic possibility.

 

We traded Brett Lawrie for a couple years of Shaun Marcum. I was looking for something like that in reverse--or a couple young arms rather than a couple years of an above average vet.

 

So then what you really are suggesting is trading Estrada or Gallardo for a prospect, which is what you hinted at in the part of the post I didn't quote, because quantity deals don't really exist for impact talent anymore.

 

Here's BA's list from before the season what can you come up with?

 

The top 4 guys aren't going anywhere: Sano had TJ surgery, Bryant can't be traded until after the draft, Franco is only .091 right now but he's the Phillies #1 prospect, and Castellanos is up and playing 3B in Detroit.

 

I've long been a Seager fan but what would the Dodgers want with Estrada or Gallardo right now? Billingsley is coming back at some point, they have no long-term need for pitching when they can just bring up Zach Lee if things get bad enough with that 5th spot in the short term?

 

Position-by-Position Rankings: Third Basemen

 

Rank, Player, Team

1. Miguel Sano, Twins

2. Kris Bryant, Cubs

3. Maikel Franco, Phillies

4. Nick Castellanos, Tigers

5. Corey Seager, Dodgers

6. Joey Gallo, Rangers

7. Colin Moran, Marlins

8. Matt Davidson, White Sox

9. Garin Cecchini, Red Sox

10. Marcus Semien, White Sox

11. Hunter Dozier, Royals

12. Rio Ruiz, Astros

13. Mitch Nay, Blue Jays

14. Eric Jagielo, Yankees

15. Renato Nunez, Athletics

16. Brandon Drury, Diamondbacks

17. Jake Lamb, Diamondbacks

18. Jeimer Candelario, Cubs

19. Kaleb Cowart, Angels

20. Ryan McMahon, Rockies

21. Rafael Devers, Red Sox

22. Mike Olt, Cubs

23. Cheslor Cuthbert, Royals

24. Zach Green, Phillies

25. Victor Caratini, Braves

[Oxy]

Well, I see 3 Cubs and 2 White Sox on the list, so I'd start there. Although it would help if the Cubs weren't the Cubs.

 

The other way to think about this is to keep plugging holes with veterans on the MLB roster by trading for a vet on a team with a prospect coming up. In that case we'd be taking on a contract which would cheapen the price significantly (veteran contracts SHOULD have near neutral trade value....)

 

In that vein, Adrian Beltre or Joey Gallo should be available--Beltre for expensive short term high production and Gallo for long term cheap risk (Beltre should come "cheaper" in a trade though).

[Roderick]

I would think that a realistic option would be for the Brewers to look at moving Nelson and someone like Haniger to get a player on the cusp of the majors at 3B this year. You can afford to trade Haniger if you assume Davis (or Gindl in replacement of) is MLB average. You can even toss in 1-2 pitchers like Jungmann/Pena/Goforth as needed.

 

So even if the Brewers resign ARam for two more years and don't move him to 1B, you can move the prospect to 1B. Then you haven't buried a prospect. Taylor Green is still around as a backup at every position other than SS (assuming they keep him somehow on June 15). Hunter Morris / Jason Rogers would be buried, if they improved to the point where he needed to go to the majors.

[ewitkows]

or you could move Haniger to 1b/3b and not lose a pitcher. He hit well in ST give him a year or 2 to hit AA/AAA

[JohnBriggs12]

You have to like Rogers' splits vs. lefties at AA last year: .338/.408/.632. If he can hold his own defensively, I could see a platoon with Green who absolutely wore out RHP his big year at AAA in 2011: .351/.415/.616. If Green can approach those splits this year at AAA (he's 6 for 12 so far in 2014), I think they could be all right. Nor would I rule out Reynolds returning though he's a FA to be.

[Outlander]

It may be too late now but I wish the Brewers could get something of value for Hellweg as I don't see him contributing anything to the major league club.

[monty57]

Not that it can't be done, but it's not common to see prospect-for-prospect trades, and I really don't see someone trading one good prospect for a bunch of our so-so guys. I think it's more likely that Thornburg/Nelson prove themselves enough this season that it allows the Brewers to trade one (maybe two) of Gallardo, Estrada or Lohse next offseason. Assuming health, any of those guys should be able to bring back some young talent.

 

Beyond Thornburg and Nelson, the rest of the young arms should be very helpful in the bullpen in future years. Getting production at league minimum salary is important, and an inexpensive bullpen allows us to spend money elsewhere.

[Roderick]

or you could move Haniger to 1b/3b and not lose a pitcher. He hit well in ST give him a year or 2 to hit AA/AAA

 

Does he have any background to play 3B? Thought he was a CF in college. That would be quite a jump.

 

Does he project to a corner infield bat? If not, wouldn't you get more value trading him to someone that needs a OF in two years.

 

Moot point I guess as he isn't currently playing any 3B in Huntsville, is he?

[reillymcshane]

It may be too late now but I wish the Brewers could get something of value for Hellweg as I don't see him contributing anything to the major league club.

Hellweg's inability to command his pitches makes him a longshot to be a successful starting pitcher. I'm beginning to think we should move him to the bullpen and see if the shorter stints will allow him to focus better. Let him use his fastball more, concentrate on mastering two pitches instead of the three or four required to be a starting pitcher.

 

I just wish the team would make the move now, and let him focus on becoming a good reliever so he can potentially help us next year.

[ewitkows]

or you could move Haniger to 1b/3b and not lose a pitcher. He hit well in ST give him a year or 2 to hit AA/AAA

 

Does he have any background to play 3B? Thought he was a CF in college. That would be quite a jump.

 

Does he project to a corner infield bat? If not, wouldn't you get more value trading him to someone that needs a OF in two years.

 

Moot point I guess as he isn't currently playing any 3B in Huntsville, is he?

 

He's not. But if he could play CF you'd think he could play a passable 3rd with a season or so in the minors

[reillymcshane]

Beyond Thornburg and Nelson, the rest of the young arms should be very helpful in the bullpen in future years. Getting production at league minimum salary is important, and an inexpensive bullpen allows us to spend money elsewhere.

 

I think this can't be understated.

 

This year, the Crew is spending around $10 million in salary on relief pitchers ($6.2 million for Gorzelanny and K-Rod). If we can keep this up (and we have a lot of decent arms coming up that project as relievers), having a cheap pen allows us to funnel money into areas of real need.

 

The key is that you have to be willing to trade or let walk relievers when they get too expensive. It's easy for management to overpay a reliever you know and trust rather than gamble on the players you're developing.