At some point should we look at extending Lucroy?

[HiAndTight]

I don't really buy into the whole pitching framing thing. Of course I think some catchers are better than others, but because one season Lucroy rated the best in a new metric, I'm not going to put much weight on that.

Not sure how reliable the metric is (at least in terms of quantifying things as +/- runs), but Lucroy has been #1 or #2 by a wide margin every single year he's been in the majors. So whatever the metric is measuring, it consistently likes something Lucroy is doing (i.e. it's not just a fluke from one season's data). And that seems to gel with his non-stats reputation too.

 

 

I thought he was 1st last year and was rated lower the year he was hurt, and his first year as a full time starter. If he has been 1 or 2 all 3 years he's been our main guy that would lend a bit more credibility to me, but I still question just how credible and viable a statistic on pitch framing can be for a catcher. Some of it may be ignorance. All the same, I need to see Luc throwing the ball better before I can buy into him being an upper tier defensive catcher. And I think he's had a very good start to the year doing just that.

 

Perhaps someone could enlighten me on just how they arrive to the conclusion that Lucroy is elite at framing pitches. I did read a fangraphs article last year(but again I thought that was just last year).

[SRB]

I thought he was 1st last year and was rated lower the year he was hurt, and his first year as a full time starter. If he has been 1 or 2 all 3 years he's been our main guy that would lend a bit more credibility to me, but I still question just how credible and viable a statistic on pitch framing can be for a catcher. Some of it may be ignorance. All the same, I need to see Luc throwing the ball better before I can buy into him being an upper tier defensive catcher. And I think he's had a very good start to the year doing just that.

 

Perhaps someone could enlighten me on just how they arrive to the conclusion that Lucroy is elite at framing pitches. I did read a fangraphs article last year(but again I thought that was just last year).

 

I'm not really sure the methodology they use, and there may be multiple competing stats we are referencing. I was thinking of the pitching framing leader board linked from this recent Fangraphs article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitch-framing-and-a-peek-inside-the-industry/

 

For that stat the leaders over the last few seasons are:

2013

1) Jonathan Lucroy, +31.1 RAA (+234 calls)

2) Chris Stewart, +22.7 RAA (+170 calls)

3) Yadier Molina, +19.8 RAA (+149 calls)

 

2012

1) Jose Molina, +25.9 RAA (+194 calls)

2) Jonathan Lucroy, +24.7 RAA (+186 calls)

3) Ryan Hanigan, +24.1 RAA (+181 calls)

 

2011

1) Jonathan Lucroy, +41.2 RAA (+310 calls)

2) Brian McCann, +31.6 RAA (+238 calls)

3) Russell Martin, +24.4 RAA (+184 calls)

 

2010

1) Brian McCann, +30.1 RAA (+226 calls)

2) Ivan Rodriguez, +26.0 RAA (+196 calls)

3) Jonathan Lucroy, +24.0 RAA (+181 calls)

 

I would be interested to know how they try to isolate this stat from the identity of the pitchers involved though. For example, we all know about Gallardo's reputation for "nibbling" the edges of the strike zone. Maybe Lucroy is rated so highly because he is regularly catching a pitcher who is particularly prone for getting called strikes based on subtle pitch-framing adjustments by the catcher.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

BUMP. Now that we are through 80% of the season and Lucroy (with a hot month of September) could enter the MVP discussion, what say you?

 

Given how well he's played, it seems unlikely that we'd pass on his $5.25 M option for 2017. If we could sign him for 3/45 for 2018, 2019, and 2020, would you do it?

 

He'll be 29 in 2015, 30 in 2016, 31 in 2017, so that would cover his age 32, 33, and 34 seasons. I realize it is unlikely that he'll make it another 6 years as our regular catcher, but given our struggles at 1B the past two years, we could move him there. If he could put up a .825-.850 OPS (.300/.375/.450) line, I think he'd be really valuable. So long as our team didn't become a blackhole at catcher, keeping his bat in the lineup and keeping him healthy would be huge.

 

If we wait until after 2015 and he puts up another monster season, I think he'll be looking for (and likely would deserve) a pretty monster deal. There is some risk in a 3/45 deal, but I also shudder to think what our offense will look like with no Ramirez, Gomez, or Lucroy, and a declining Braun.

[SoupTown]

I was looking at contracts last night in Cotts. I just think Doug should just write a check for $1 mill and give it to Lucroy today - no strings attached.

[SRB]

I was looking at contracts last night in Cotts. I just think Doug should just write a check for $1 mill and give it to Lucroy today - no strings attached.

 

We can offer Lucroy a lifetime contract of... $1 million dollars!

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/16/Drevil_million_dollars.jpg

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think it's way too early to be talking extension for a guy who will be in his 30's when his current contract expires. He's a very good, but not great hitter who plays a defensive position that often shows signs of early deterioration of skills. He's going to have the choice of staying at catcher (and not a lot of catchers age well into their 30's), or playing 1B. When he gets into his mid 30's, is Luc going to continue to be an .850 OPS hitter?

[chadomac]

Like Gomez, I think we should enjoy getting Lucroy during the prime of his career and approach the subject once he gets closer to free agency... but most likely someone else will end up paying him for what he's already done rather than what he will do during his next contract. And that's fine, but I don't want it to be the Brewers.

[adambr2]

I think we should look at Braun's contract extension right now and how we feel about that and ask ourselves the same question on Lucroy on whether it is worth the risk of extending a player 3-4 years away from FA is worth it simply to obtain a slight discount for that player in the late years of his career.

[adambr2]

BUMP. Now that we are through 80% of the season and Lucroy (with a hot month of September) could enter the MVP discussion, what say you?

 

Given how well he's played, it seems unlikely that we'd pass on his $5.25 M option for 2017. If we could sign him for 3/45 for 2018, 2019, and 2020, would you do it?

 

He'll be 29 in 2015, 30 in 2016, 31 in 2017, so that would cover his age 32, 33, and 34 seasons. I realize it is unlikely that he'll make it another 6 years as our regular catcher, but given our struggles at 1B the past two years, we could move him there. If he could put up a .825-.850 OPS (.300/.375/.450) line, I think he'd be really valuable. So long as our team didn't become a blackhole at catcher, keeping his bat in the lineup and keeping him healthy would be huge.

 

If we wait until after 2015 and he puts up another monster season, I think he'll be looking for (and likely would deserve) a pretty monster deal. There is some risk in a 3/45 deal, but I also shudder to think what our offense will look like with no Ramirez, Gomez, or Lucroy, and a declining Braun.

 

IMO it is way too early to be concerned about how our offense will look in 2018. So much can happen between now and then, guys develop, maybe Coulter turns out to be a star, maybe we make a big trade somewhere, maybe guys we haven't even drafted yet make it to the bigs by then.

 

For perspective on that, consider opening day in 2010:

 

Greg Zaun was our starting catcher, Casey McGehee our 3rd baseman, and Jim Edmonds in right. Lucroy was still an unknown as far as how good he would be and Gomez was starting to get the bust label. Peralta was in High A and Davis and Gennett were in Appleton, and Jimmy Nelson hadn't been drafted yet. K-Rod was in New York making over $12M a year. Greinke, Marcum, Garza, and Lohse had never pitched for us and we had no real reason to think they ever woud.