At some point should we look at extending Lucroy?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I know he's signed through 2017 I believe (two more years + an option year), but if he has another great first half, I'd like to tack 2-3 years onto that extension. I imagine if Gomez has another solid year (signed through 2016), we might want to see what it would cost to add 2-3 years to his contact as well.

 

Team is playing really well right now and seems to have that "X factor" that we were missing the last two seasons.

 

Good pitching really helps

[bjkrautk]

The tough question is whether Lucroy will still be playing catcher past age 30. While the bat plays, a good deal of his value comes from his defense. Extending him now would probably mean overpaying for a 1b by the end of those extra 2-3 years.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

He'll be 28 this season... (June) but his contract is such a bargain

 

2014- Age 27-28 $2 million

2015- Age 28-29 $3 million

2016- Age 29-30 $4 million

2017- Age 30-31 $5.25 million (option)

 

I'm not saying give him 5/$75 or anything, but if he'd be open to say 2 more years for $18 million (maybe with an option year)

 

2018- Age 31-32 $8 million

2019- Age 32-33 $10 million

2020- Age 33-34 $10 million (2 million buyout)

 

He hasn't made "that much money" IIRC, the original deal was for $14-16 million, so adding 2 guaranteed years would double that. I would expect (even if he moves off the catcher position), that he'll be a .275/.350/.450/.800 guy the next 4-5 years. While that bat definitely plays at Catcher, I wouldn't complain that much if we had a steady (OBP heavy) .800 OPS at 1st base at a reasonable price.

[torts]

I am 110% all for extending Lucroy again.

[adambr2]

Given that he can't play for another team until 2018, I'm not too worried about this for at least two more years. We're so far off from knowing what the team will look like in 2018, what, if any catching and 1B prospects will develop or come to us via trade.

[Invader3K]

I don't think there needs to be a rush. Catching, even with the new plate rules, is still a fairly risky position in terms of injury.

[dlk9s]

I'd like to see Wang extended.

 

 

Sorry, just had to get a Wang joke in here somewhere.

[RobDeer 45]

For some reason, I'm not as worried about extending Lucroy as I would be with many other catchers. He does't have the typical bulky catcher body, so I feel like his knees should be better off in the long run. I still don't see him being a huge benefit to any team at a position other than catcher.

[chadomac]

I hope they just stay content with the first extension. I always thought the second Braun extension was completely unnecessary, and with what's happened in the past couple years with his thumb and suspension, I am even more sure that that was a bad move.

 

Lucroy is great and I love having him on our team, but I would be afraid to sign a catcher into his mid-30's. I'm very risk-averse, though.

[DoubleSwitch]

If you could add 2 or 3 years at the 10 million range I would definitely be for it, but I don't think that deal really makes sense for Lucroy. If I were him it would probably take something in the Yadier Molina range to get me to sign away free agency. He's plenty athletic, so I don't think catching into his 30s will be a problem and he continues to hit the cover off the ball.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm interested to see how he ages. There are/have been some rather old catchers that were productive late in their careers because of their defense like Jose Molina and Henry Blanco.

[adambr2]

I hope they just stay content with the first extension. I always thought the second Braun extension was completely unnecessary, and with what's happened in the past couple years with his thumb and suspension, I am even more sure that that was a bad move.

 

Lucroy is great and I love having him on our team, but I would be afraid to sign a catcher into his mid-30's. I'm very risk-averse, though.

 

I agree with pretty much all of this. I don't necessarily think the Braun extension is going to be bad, but I didn't see the need. He would STILL be under control for 2 more years without the extension. If he turns out to be more of a Corey Hart type player without the PED's, his contract is going to hurt from 2016-2018.

 

This isn't like the NFL where you can go light on the guaranteed money and get out of a deal if need be. If you're signing a guy in 2014 for a deal that starts in 2018, you better have a pretty solid idea of who he is going to be then. So many variables to consider. Health, more wear on the treads, and more uncertainty in your 30's. Some guys peak in their late 20's and fall off a cliff in their 30's. You just don't know.

 

I can't see too much of a purpose of seeking to buy out future years that are 4+ years away for an almost-28 year old catcher especially having no idea how he will project as a catcher at 32 and 33.

 

I also don't see much purpose of extending him for those 2 years with the purpose of him playing first. He's very valuable at catcher. Put him at 1st and he's just Mark Reynolds with less K's and less power. Harsh, but true.

[igor67]

I love him and as a total package he is almost as big of a prospect hit as Braun was, but I'm not confident his bat is quite at the level where I would feel comfortable betting on it into his 30's at market rates. He is very much in that Corey Hart mold of being quite valuable, but not so worthwhile to break the bank on. Those are the players you avoid on long term deals, and stick with Branch Rickey philosophy, better a year too early than too late.

[gregmag]

I love Lucroy to death, to the extent that I almost want to overpay him just because I love him. I mean, we developed him, he grew in the job, he's arguably at this moment the best catcher the Brewers have ever had, and he does things well that people didn't even know existed until he did them well. Which of course is just correlation, not causation, but who cares.

 

But from a purely logical perspective I wouldn't extend him. Certainly not now, and maybe not at all. Like folks have said above, he's a catcher on a team-friendly contract through age 31. Historically, a lot of catchers start dropping off the table right around that age. If he turns into Johnny Bench over the next couple of seasons, then extend him. Of course that would cost a lot more than extending him now, but I think it's the right bet. Besides, if we end up backing a money truck up to his house when he's 29, I'll be smiling.

[pogokat]

I love him and as a total package he is almost as big of a prospect hit as Braun was, but I'm not confident his bat is quite at the level where I would feel comfortable betting on it into his 30's at market rates. He is very much in that Corey Hart mold of being quite valuable, but not so worthwhile to break the bank on. Those are the players you avoid on long term deals, and stick with Branch Rickey philosophy, better a year to early than too late.

 

 

I agree with every word here...and i love that Luc is getting noticed nationally. All the fantasy baseball guides had him as a top 3 player this year---i had one that rated him as the best overall catcher in baseball. And you know what, maybe he is---I think he's going to make the all-star team this year easily, and depending on if we can get out the vote, it might be as the starter.

 

That said, why pay him now? That's silly---we've got him for several more years. If the Brewers are Jonathan Lucroy away from the World series in 2018, then we should worry about that closer to when his deal expires, but right now lets enjoy the fact that we have an awesome player at what is probably the most team friendly deal in baseball.

 

Besides, his wonderful contract is part of the reason that Week's awful deal hasn't killed this team.

[SRB]

Did some anonymous GM tell Jon Heyman that behind-the-scenes, Lucroy is considered one of the top two most valuable catchers in baseball (along with Yadier Molina)? I know extending catchers is risky, but if they can lock him in even longer at relatively cheap then I think the Brewers have to do that deal.

 

Molina got 5/$75M a couple years ago--but he is also more universally praised than Lucroy. I think something like 5/$50M would be a solid deal for the Brewers though.

[adambr2]

Did some anonymous GM tell Jon Heyman that behind-the-scenes, Lucroy is considered one of the top two most valuable catchers in baseball (along with Yadier Molina)? I know extending catchers is risky, but if they can lock him in even longer at relatively cheap then I think the Brewers have to do that deal.

 

Molina got 5/$75M a couple years ago--but he is also more universally praised than Lucroy. I think something like 5/$50M would be a solid deal for the Brewers though.

 

You do realize he is already under contract for 4/$14.25M?

 

Or do you mean after the completion of that?

[SRB]

Did some anonymous GM tell Jon Heyman that behind-the-scenes, Lucroy is considered one of the top two most valuable catchers in baseball (along with Yadier Molina)? I know extending catchers is risky, but if they can lock him in even longer at relatively cheap then I think the Brewers have to do that deal.

 

Molina got 5/$75M a couple years ago--but he is also more universally praised than Lucroy. I think something like 5/$50M would be a solid deal for the Brewers though.

 

You do realize he is already under contract for 4/$14.25M?

 

Or do you mean after the completion of that?

 

I meant through his mid-30s, though I guess you are right that he would probably not agree to a new extension unless his current extension was superseded so he gets a higher salary.

 

Something else to consider: if we buy into developing advanced metrics that say Lucroy is perhaps the best pitch-framer in baseball, is there another skill that is less likely to decline with age?

[adambr2]

Did some anonymous GM tell Jon Heyman that behind-the-scenes, Lucroy is considered one of the top two most valuable catchers in baseball (along with Yadier Molina)? I know extending catchers is risky, but if they can lock him in even longer at relatively cheap then I think the Brewers have to do that deal.

 

Molina got 5/$75M a couple years ago--but he is also more universally praised than Lucroy. I think something like 5/$50M would be a solid deal for the Brewers though.

 

You do realize he is already under contract for 4/$14.25M?

 

Or do you mean after the completion of that?

 

I meant through his mid-30s, though I guess you are right that he would probably not agree to a new extension unless his current extension was superseded so he gets a higher salary.

 

Something else to consider: if we buy into developing advanced metrics that say Lucroy is perhaps the best pitch-framer in baseball, is there another skill that is less likely to decline with age?

 

I think Lucroy would take 5/$50M at the end of his current deal in a heartbeat. I think it's us that would not.

 

Molina was 29 when he got his deal, Lucroy will be 31 if we were to do that. I would just enjoy the fact that we have a total bargain barrel deal on him for the next 4 years. If he gets a lucrative deal after that, either with us or somebody else, best of luck to him, he deserves it.

[Baldkin]

Did some anonymous GM tell Jon Heyman that behind-the-scenes, Lucroy is considered one of the top two most valuable catchers in baseball (along with Yadier Molina)? I know extending catchers is risky, but if they can lock him in even longer at relatively cheap then I think the Brewers have to do that deal.

 

Molina got 5/$75M a couple years ago--but he is also more universally praised than Lucroy. I think something like 5/$50M would be a solid deal for the Brewers though.

 

You do realize he is already under contract for 4/$14.25M?

 

Or do you mean after the completion of that?

 

I meant through his mid-30s, though I guess you are right that he would probably not agree to a new extension unless his current extension was superseded so he gets a higher salary.

 

Something else to consider: if we buy into developing advanced metrics that say Lucroy is perhaps the best pitch-framer in baseball, is there another skill that is less likely to decline with age?

 

The problem isn't that his pitch framing skill will decline, the problem is that his knees might decline and he won't be able to catch anymore.

[lcbj68c]

At SOME point should we look at extending Lucroy?

 

Yes

[HiAndTight]

I don't really buy into the whole pitching framing thing. Of course I think some catchers are better than others, but because one season Lucroy rated the best in a new metric, I'm not going to put much weight on that.

 

That said, he has looked better IMO defensively early this season. His release has looked quicker and his ball has been on the bag several times to nail base runners. I'm not even going to bother to look at what his CS% is this early on, and I'm not saying that just because he's looked better with the eye test early on that he's actually improved significantly, BUT, if he can become a better defensive catcher, then he may end up being the biggest bargain in the game the next couple years(one of the biggest anyway).

 

And 4 years is a lifetime for a catcher.

 

One thing that I've advocated in the past would be trying Lucroy at 3rd base. I think he has the athletic ability, the feet, soft hands and obviously the arm to play 3rd. Now it's anyone's guess if you combine all those qualities and they end up equaling a viable 3rd basemen, but I think that could help him have a longer career. Of course he doesn't have a big frame, so he may be the type of catcher who can stay behind the plate and catch 130 games a year for 10 years.

 

But again, as with Gallardo, I think the Brewers would be wise to let him play out these next 4 years. Or at least let him play out the next couple years and if he's developed even more in that time, then consider extending him. But as a rule, I'm a huge fan of extending guys early on in their service time because the reward far outweighs the risk. But now you're talking about signing a guy into..what..his age 35 season? 9 more years?

 

 

I agree with the poster who said that the Braun move will likely end up being a burden, but even that move was an extremely rare move with mitigating circumstances. At the time he was the golden boy, the face of the franchise, and that was likely the best bet to keep him in Milwaukee his entire career. But if that move didn't work out(or is at least one they'd like to have back at this moment) I can't imagine they'd jump into one with Lucroy.

 

 

As for your idea about an extension for Carlos Gomez would make more sense at this point in time, but with Scott Boras, how much would you have to pay to extend one of the best players from the start of 2013 until now in the entire game? I would guess he'd want 7 years 130 million? I don't know, but I highly doubt the two sides could come together.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I don't really buy into the whole pitching framing thing. Of course I think some catchers are better than others, but because one season Lucroy rated the best in a new metric, I'm not going to put much weight on that.

 

That said, he has looked better IMO defensively early this season. His release has looked quicker and his ball has been on the bag several times to nail base runners. I'm not even going to bother to look at what his CS% is this early on, and I'm not saying that just because he's looked better with the eye test early on that he's actually improved significantly, BUT, if he can become a better defensive catcher, then he may end up being the biggest bargain in the game the next couple years(one of the biggest anyway).

 

And 4 years is a lifetime for a catcher.

 

One thing that I've advocated in the past would be trying Lucroy at 3rd base. I think he has the athletic ability, the feet, soft hands and obviously the arm to play 3rd. Now it's anyone's guess if you combine all those qualities and they end up equaling a viable 3rd basemen, but I think that could help him have a longer career. Of course he doesn't have a big frame, so he may be the type of catcher who can stay behind the plate and catch 130 games a year for 10 years.

 

But again, as with Gallardo, I think the Brewers would be wise to let him play out these next 4 years. Or at least let him play out the next couple years and if he's developed even more in that time, then consider extending him. But as a rule, I'm a huge fan of extending guys early on in their service time because the reward far outweighs the risk. But now you're talking about signing a guy into..what..his age 35 season? 9 more years?

 

 

I agree with the poster who said that the Braun move will likely end up being a burden, but even that move was an extremely rare move with mitigating circumstances. At the time he was the golden boy, the face of the franchise, and that was likely the best bet to keep him in Milwaukee his entire career. But if that move didn't work out(or is at least one they'd like to have back at this moment) I can't imagine they'd jump into one with Lucroy.

 

 

As for your idea about an extension for Carlos Gomez would make more sense at this point in time, but with Scott Boras, how much would you have to pay to extend one of the best players from the start of 2013 until now in the entire game? I would guess he'd want 7 years 130 million? I don't know, but I highly doubt the two sides could come together.

 

Considering that Gomez bypassed Boras and signed a 3 year FA extention where he wont get paid anymore than 9 million which is the 3rd year of his contract, which screams he wants to be here and I will take a discount, I'd offer him 7 years at 15-16 million. Based on his past I'd think he's take it and I would do it ASAP. That's 105-112 million total.

 

Brauns contract wont be a burden in my opinion, and he's one of the few I believe that can actually live up to a contract like that.

[SRB]

I don't really buy into the whole pitching framing thing. Of course I think some catchers are better than others, but because one season Lucroy rated the best in a new metric, I'm not going to put much weight on that.

Not sure how reliable the metric is (at least in terms of quantifying things as +/- runs), but Lucroy has been #1 or #2 by a wide margin every single year he's been in the majors. So whatever the metric is measuring, it consistently likes something Lucroy is doing (i.e. it's not just a fluke from one season's data). And that seems to gel with his non-stats reputation too.

[HiAndTight]

I don't really buy into the whole pitching framing thing. Of course I think some catchers are better than others, but because one season Lucroy rated the best in a new metric, I'm not going to put much weight on that.

 

That said, he has looked better IMO defensively early this season. His release has looked quicker and his ball has been on the bag several times to nail base runners. I'm not even going to bother to look at what his CS% is this early on, and I'm not saying that just because he's looked better with the eye test early on that he's actually improved significantly, BUT, if he can become a better defensive catcher, then he may end up being the biggest bargain in the game the next couple years(one of the biggest anyway).

 

And 4 years is a lifetime for a catcher.

 

One thing that I've advocated in the past would be trying Lucroy at 3rd base. I think he has the athletic ability, the feet, soft hands and obviously the arm to play 3rd. Now it's anyone's guess if you combine all those qualities and they end up equaling a viable 3rd basemen, but I think that could help him have a longer career. Of course he doesn't have a big frame, so he may be the type of catcher who can stay behind the plate and catch 130 games a year for 10 years.

 

But again, as with Gallardo, I think the Brewers would be wise to let him play out these next 4 years. Or at least let him play out the next couple years and if he's developed even more in that time, then consider extending him. But as a rule, I'm a huge fan of extending guys early on in their service time because the reward far outweighs the risk. But now you're talking about signing a guy into..what..his age 35 season? 9 more years?

 

 

I agree with the poster who said that the Braun move will likely end up being a burden, but even that move was an extremely rare move with mitigating circumstances. At the time he was the golden boy, the face of the franchise, and that was likely the best bet to keep him in Milwaukee his entire career. But if that move didn't work out(or is at least one they'd like to have back at this moment) I can't imagine they'd jump into one with Lucroy.

 

 

As for your idea about an extension for Carlos Gomez would make more sense at this point in time, but with Scott Boras, how much would you have to pay to extend one of the best players from the start of 2013 until now in the entire game? I would guess he'd want 7 years 130 million? I don't know, but I highly doubt the two sides could come together.

 

Considering that Gomez bypassed Boras and signed a 3 year FA extention where he wont get paid anymore than 9 million which is the 3rd year of his contract, which screams he wants to be here and I will take a discount, I'd offer him 7 years at 15-16 million. Based on his past I'd think he's take it and I would do it ASAP. That's 105-112 million total.

 

Brauns contract wont be a burden in my opinion, and he's one of the few I believe that can actually live up to a contract like that.

 

 

So we'd then have Gomez for another 10 years for a total of roughly 140 million dollars?

 

I love Gomez, but that deal scares me.

 

And he signed that deal after having a decent offensive season(while playing great defense). But he hadn't gotten paid yet. I hope you're right about it happening as a result of him wanting to be here, but I think it was just a chance for him to secure himself while still being in line for another payday by the time he was 30.